Following is a massive wall of text, a bubble watch for all 32 conferences. Use this information freely to build your brackets. I may edit this for space as needed, do note. This is the chart I keep updated and use myself. So disseminate my knowledge to the masses.
The numbers are courtesy of CBS, presumably managed by Jerry Palm. There may be discrepancies in the numbers from different sites, which is fine. The goal is not exact precision here; the goal is relatively accurate information for everyone that you can compare. If some team is off by a few RPI or SoS points, that's ok.
The numbers are courtesy of CBS, presumably managed by Jerry Palm. There may be discrepancies in the numbers from different sites, which is fine. The goal is not exact precision here; the goal is relatively accurate information for everyone that you can compare. If some team is off by a few RPI or SoS points, that's ok.
America East
Conference
championship watch
Stony Brook
(14-7) (7-1) RPI 163 SoS 294
Vermont
(11-9) (7-1) RPI 128 SoS 203
Stony Brook
has round 1 in conference play, Vermont has the better RPI/SoS and the best
non-con win (N-Illinois St). Looking
dicey for anyone in the A-East to avoid the 16 line.
EIEIO watch
Albany
(11-10) (5-3) RPI 198 SoS 287 – Probably the only other team with a prayer of
the postseason
No
postseason
Hartford
(10-13) (4-4)
*
UMass-Lowell (4-14) (4-4)
UMBC (6-14)
(3-5)
New Hampshire
(4-16) (3-5)
Maine (3-16)
(2-6)
Binghamton
(4-17) (1-7)
American
Lockbox
Cincinnati
(20-2) (9-0) RPI 19 SoS 82
Vital
signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 100, 3-2 vs.
Top 50, 7-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 160/25
Quality
wins: N-Pitt, @Memphis, @Louisville, SMU
Bad
losses: none (N-Xavier doesn’t count)
The top-end
quality of the top wins are starting to look very good. And most importantly, those are R/N games
they’re doing it in. Profile may lack
the depth it needs for a 1 or 2 seed, but the high-end quality is there. Time to really take this team seriously on
the top lines. N-Xavier and @UNM are
plenty excusable with those scalps.
Memphis
(15-4) (6-2) RPI 24 SoS 34
Vital
signs: 7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 35, 2-4 vs.
Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 172/18
Quality
wins: N-Oklahoma St, @Louisville, N-LSU?
Bad
losses: none, although home losses to
Cincy and UConn hurt H2H situations
Your pretty
standard lockbox team. Good wins, no bad
losses, lost a couple swing games.
UConn (17-4)
(5-3) RPI 35 SoS 73
Vital signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 70, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 7-3
vs. Top 100, avg W/L 150/78
Quality
wins: Florida, @Memphis, Harvard and
N-Indiana?
Bad
losses: @Houston doesn’t look so
hot. @SMU and Stanford? Eh
The top two
wins will have some mileage. As for now,
another standard lockbox team.
Louisville
(17-4) (6-2) RPI 39 SoS 77
Vital
signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 168, 2-4 vs.
Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 180/26
Quality
wins: @UConn, Southern Miss and SMU?
Bad
losses: N-UNC? Nah.
Home to Cincy and Memphis, perhaps
Ehhhh. Marginal SoS.
One really solid win, and home whiffs in other quality win chances. Heft isn’t there. They need to lean on the eye test hard. It may be time to start really docking this
team some seeding lines. But they’re
still not close to the bubble, so they shouldn’t panic too much yet.
Bubble
SMU (16-5)
(5-3) RPI 52 SoS 127
Vital
signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 275, 1-3 vs.
Top 50, 1-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 199/64
Quality
wins: UConn!
Bad
losses: @USF. @Arkansas doesn’t really count
One quality
win. One. That’s it.
The signature road win is Wyoming.
The good news is all the losses are road losses, 3 of them to legit
tourney teams. However, the black mark
is that 275 above. Still have both ends
of a Memphis series, and UL and Cincy at home.
Probably need 2 of those.
EIEIO watch
Houston
(11-10) (3-5) RPI 171 SoS 145 – If you had to pick one more postseason team…
No
postseason
South
Florida (11-10) (2-6)
Rutgers
(7-13) (2-6)
Central
Florida (7-9) (1-6)
Temple
(6-13) (1-7)
A-10
Lockbox
UMass (17-3)
(4-2) RPI 8 SoS 28
Vital
signs: 9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 17, 3-2 vs.
Top 50, 10-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 107/48
Quality
wins: N-New Mexico…and a pocket
collection: N-BYU, Provi, LSU…
Bad
losses: @Richmond and @St Bona?
9-3 R/N will
get you a long way with the committee.
Great SoS. Those road losses are
forgivable as long as they don’t become a trend. This is a team that typically ends up
overseeded by the committee. They’ll be
fine.
George
Washington (17-3) (5-1) RPI 25 SoS 93
Vital
signs: 7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 134, 2-1 vs.
Top 50, 8-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 156/66
Quality
wins: N-Creighton, VCU for sure
Bad
losses: N-Marquette, @LaSalle (both are
borderline)
A lot of
mileage from that Creighton win right now.
8 Top 100 wins and a good R/N mean a lock for now, and surprisingly,
maybe the 2nd best A-10 resume right now.
St Louis
(18-2) (6-0) RPI 22 SoS 91
Vital
signs: 8-1 R/N, non-con SoS 120, 1-2 vs.
Top 50, 5-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 171/8
Quality
wins: uh oh. Richmond, Indiana St, @Dayton?
Bad
losses: both are Top 10 losses
They’re a
lock just because they’re a good team.
But man, they need a win over a tournament team at some point.
Bubble
VCU (17-4)
(5-1) RPI 33 SoS 88
Vital
signs: 7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 94, 1-2 vs.
Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 148/60
Quality
wins: @Virginia for sure, @Belmont,
@LaSalle, and @Dayton?
Bad
losses: @UNI looks dicey
The great
thing here is all their biggest games have been R/N games so far. The committee loves that stuff. I can’t imagine this profile being in trouble
unless they miss their other chances in the A-10 for decent wins.
Richmond
(14-7) (4-2) RPI 44 SoS 37
Vital
signs: 5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 77, 1-4 vs.
Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 156/45
Quality
wins: UMass, St Joe’s and Dayton and
Belmont and Delaware are marginal
Bad
losses: @Wake? @St Bonaventure@ Ohio?
The losses are numerous
The win over
UMass gets them at least in the general vicinity of the bubble. They’ll need road results to really get into
the main picture, though.
NIT watch
Dayton
(13-8) (1-5) RPI 77 SoS 69 – They’ve fallen off the consideration board with a
miserable A-10 start. They’ve got the
signature wins (Gonzaga and Cal in Maui, @Ole Miss) to get there….but USC? @URI?
@Ill. St? Way too many body
blows, which is a shame. There’s time to
fix this, but they’ve taken about as much damage as they can afford.
St Joseph’s
(14-6) (4-2) RPI 58 SoS 92 – You could make a bubble argument, until you see
there’s 2 Top 100 wins, and they whiffed in their 5 toughest games. Run is possible, not nearly probable.
LaSalle
(11-9) (3-3) RPI 75 SoS 53 – Before you get carried away, just 1 Top 100
win. Pass.
St
Bonaventure (13-8) (3-4) RPI 71 SoS 90 – There’s actually 5 Top 100 wins
here. UMass is the lynchpin. Way too many bad losses, but the NIT is
definitely in play with a strong finish here.
EIEIO watch
None listed
here right now, but obviously 2 (or 3?) of those NIT watch teams will slip down
to here.
No
postseason
Duquesne
(9-9) (2-4)
Rhode Island
(10-10) (2-4)
Fordham
(8-12) (1-6)
George Mason
(7-13) (0-6)
ACC
Lockbox
Syracuse
(20-0) (7-0) RPI 6 SoS 75
Vital
signs: 8-0 R/N, non-con SoS 98, 4-0 vs.
Top 50, 12-0 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 130/0
Quality
wins: Villanova, Pitt, N-Minnesota, UNC,
N-Cal
Bad losses: nope
Only issue
is that if the profile absorbs a couple of losses, I’m not sure it’s enough to
stay on the 1 line. However, ACC play
will provide signature win chances, so no reason to sweat it.
Duke (17-4)
(6-2) RPI 10 SoS 7
Vital
signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 23, 5-2 vs.
Top 50, 9-3 vs. Top 100 avg W/L 118/49
Quality
wins: Michigan, N-UCLA, @Pitt, Virginia,
FSU, etc
Bad
losses: @Clemson and @Notre Dame look
marginal
This profile
would be exponentially better without those 2 marginal losses. Alas.
Neutral losses to Kansas and Arizona could hurt the jockeying for
position in the S-Curve. Still though,
your standard fare Duke profile, really.
Pittsburgh
(18-3) (6-2) RPI 20 SoS 52
Vital
signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 174, 1-3 vs.
Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 150/11
Quality
wins: N-Stanford? @NC St?
Bad
losses: none
Um, you guys
can be a lock for now, but I’d like to see a good win at some point. They have some decent wins, a lack of non-con
heft, and a situation where their seed can vary wildly.
Virginia
(16-5) (7-1) RPI 21 SoS 21
Vital
signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 39, 3-4 vs.
Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 146/32
Quality
wins: sweep of FSU, UNC, N-SMU and @NC
St?
Bad
losses: @Green Bay looks worse than it
is. Other losses are fine
They probably
whiffed their 4 toughest games, but they’ve done enough for now, I think. Very, very marginal lock to be honest.
Bubble
Florida St
(13-7) (4-4) RPI 32 SoS 20
Vital
signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 43, 2-6 vs.
Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 167/22
Quality
wins: N-UMass, N-VCU, @Clemson…hmm…
Bad
losses: actually, outside of NC State on
the road, none
The problem
isn’t the quality of loss, because their losses are plenty excusable (the sweep
of Virginia does hurt a bit). The issue
is of quantity. 6-6 R/N looks bad until
you look at the quality of teams they’ve played on the road. 5 losses inside the RPI Top 25. And they’ve offset it a bit with neutral
court wins over A-10 powers. My guess is
hanging around .500 in the ACC is enough for the NCAA tournament, but just
tread carefully.
North
Carolina (13-7) (3-4) RPI 43 SoS 17
Vital
signs: 4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 21, 4-3 vs.
Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 143/57
Quality
wins: @Michigan St, Kentucky,
N-Louisville, N-Richmond?
Bad
losses: Miami, @Wake and @UAB
Please win
and make life easy for bracketologists everywhere. I still have nothing to say here in protest.
North
Carolina St (14-7) (4-4) RPI 58 SoS 36
Vital
signs: 3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 102, 2-5 vs.
Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 163/42
Quality
wins: FSU, @Tennessee
Bad
losses: NC Central at home, yikes,
@Wake?
They’ve kind
of muscled their way to next-in-line in the ACC. Borderline bubble case, but worth a cursory
look for now.
NIT watch
Wake Forest
(14-7) (4-4) RPI 63 SoS 68 – A case could be made for the bubble here; home
wins over UNC and Richmond buttress the resume, and no losses are
egregious. If they can find quality wins
somewhere in the ACC, we can talk a bit more.
But they’ve lost to several bubblish teams.
Clemson
(13-6) (4-3) RPI 80 SoS 127 – Bad, bad non-con SoS (289) hints at the lack of
resume support outside of their win over Duke.
Bad road loss to Auburn. Too many
flaws despite the shiny record.
EIEIO watch
Maryland
(12-9) (4-4) RPI 82 SoS 49 – N-Providence signature win. Ok then.
Pass.
Notre Dame
(11-10) (2-6) RPI 112 SoS 42 – Poor wasted win over Duke.
No
postseason
Boston
College (5-14) (2-5)
Georgia Tech
(11-10) (2-6)
Miami
(10-10) (2-6)
Virginia
Tech (8-12) (1-7)
A-Sun
Conference
championship watch
Mercer (14-5)
(8-1) RPI 65 SoS 191
FGCU (11-9)
(7-2) RPI 183 SoS 264
It’s
tempting to find room for Mercer on the bubble; they did win @Ole Miss, but a
couple miserable road losses end that argument quickly. FGCU is the threat to them yet again. They have a surprisingly bad, bad, resume.
EIEIO watch
East
Tennessee St (10-10) (4-4) RPI 225 SoS 260 – As the only other A-Sun team at
.500, congrats for getting listed. Well
actually, the CIT counts non-D1, so UNF and USC-Upstate are at .500 too. A-Sun should find a 3rd postseason
team somewhere, at least.
No
postseason
North
Florida (10-11) (6-4)
USC Upstate
(9-10) (4-4)
Stetson
(6-15) (4-5)
Lipscomb (8-12)
(4-6)
Jacksonville
(6-13) (4-6)
* Northern
Kentucky (8-14) (4-6)
Kennesaw St
(2-18) (1-8)
Big 12
Lockbox
Kansas
(16-4) (7-0) RPI 1 SoS 1
Vital
signs: 7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 8-4 vs.
Top 50, 12-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 68/12
Quality
wins: N-Duke, Okla St, swept Iowa St,
N-New Mexico, @Oklahoma, on and on…
Bad
losses: @Colorado looks worse than it
really is
This is
quickly shaping into a profile worthy of a 1 seed; especially if they run away
with the Big 12. One hanging issue: 3 losses to ‘Nova, Florida, and SDSU – direct
competition on the top 2 lines. On the
one hand, it’s good they losses are to top teams. On the other, they’re going to lose H2H
battles on the S-Curve.
Oklahoma St
(16-4) (4-3) RPI 14 SoS 26
Vital
signs: 6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 78, 3-4 vs.
Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 137/20
Quality
wins: Memphis, N-Colorado, Texas….N-La
Tech, Butler, and Purdue?
Bad
losses: none (all 4 are neutral or away
to tournament teams)
Eventually,
to justify a top 3 seed, they’ll need a couple more quality wins in league
play. Separating from the rest of the
Big 12 pack is key. They’ve lost the
swing road games (Okla and K-St) so far in conference play.
Iowa St
(15-4) (3-4) RPI 12 SoS 6
Vital
signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 62, 4-4 vs.
Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 124/13
Quality
wins: Michigan, Iowa, K-State, @BYU and
N-Boise?
Bad
losses: none (reasonable road losses)
If there is
a nit to pick, they could use a true road win against a tournament team. They’ll need that for a really high
seed. Michigan and Iowa wins are picking
up speed now.
Oklahoma
(17-4) (6-2) RPI 18 SoS 15
Vital
signs: 7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 67, 3-3 vs.
Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 133/30
Quality
wins: Iowa St, Okla St, @Texas,
@Baylor?, Mercer is the best non-con win?
Bad
losses: For high seed purposes, La Tech
Oklahoma is
making up for a marginal non-con performance where the signature win is
Mercer. They’re holding serve at home
against other tournament teams, which is enough to earn lockbox status. Still, this is one team whose seed I expect
to oscillate wildly in the coming weeks.
Bubble
Texas (16-4)
(5-2) RPI 31 SoS 44
Vital
signs: 5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 144, 3-4 vs.
Top 50, 8-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 144/21
Quality
wins: Iowa St, Kansas St, @UNC, @Baylor?
Bad
losses: I guess N-BYU doesn’t look so
great
The bad news
is that @UNC feather doesn’t look as great as it normally does. Still, their top 3 wins are very favorable
compared to the bubble, so they’re plenty safe for now. If they continue stay above .500 in
conference play, there’s going to be enough quality wins to ensure their
safety.
Kansas St
(15-6) (5-3) RPI 38 SoS 29
Vital
signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 102, 4-3 vs.
Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 133/67
Quality
wins: Okla St, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, G.
Washington (all at home)
Bad
losses: N-Charlotte and N. Colorado are
losing steam; so is N-Georgetown
The issue
here is the road issues. Losing at Iowa
St, Texas is fine. However, two dicey
neutral losses; and the signature road win right now is TCU. Uh oh.
It’s signature because it’s the only true road win. They just need to beat the bottom of the Big
12 on the road, because there’s 4 Top 25 wins right now which suggest this
profile should be okay.
Baylor
(11-7) (1-6) RPI 68 SoS 30
Vital
signs: 2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 74, 2-5 vs.
Top 50, 3-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 166/41
Quality
wins: Kentucky, Colorado and Dayton in
Maui
Bad
losses: @Texas Tech, WVU
Losers of 5
in a row. Kentucky and N-Colorado are
fine wins to buttress the resume, but there’s no depth of quality wins behind
that. So this slide is costing them. Worse, they’ve already punted 2 of the Big 12
cupcake games. The good news is that
quality win chances will continue to smack them in the forehead, so there’s
every chance to get back into the field of 68.
EIEIO watch
West
Virginia (12-9) (4-4) RPI 83 SoS 70 – They still probably fall below .500 by
the end of the season, but they’re hanging on for now.
No
postseason
Texas Tech
(10-11) (2-6)
TCU (8-10)
(0-7)
Big East
Lockbox
Villanova
(18-2) (7-1) RPI 3 SoS 14
Vital
signs: 9-1 R/N, non-con SoS 22, 3-2 vs.
Top 50, 10-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 118/8
Quality
wins: N-Kansas, N-Iowa, Provi?
Bad
losses: none
Those wins
in Atlantis is worth everything right now.
It’s not a bad thing, though.
Could use more resume heft. Is
holding off Creighton in the eyes of the committee thanks to those wins, for
now.
Creighton
(18-3) (8-1) RPI 11 SoS 24
Vital
signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 55, 3-3 vs.
Top 50, 10-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 116/30
Quality
wins: @Villanova, Xavier, N-Arizona St,
Cal, @St Joe’s?
Bad
losses: @Providence?
7 wins from
51-100 RPI really beef up the resume in the middle. It helps get a good seed but not a great
seed. Neutral losses to SDSU and G. Wash
may end up being daggers. Still though,
the eye test is in their favor right now.
Doesn’t have a better profile than Nova.
Bubble
Xavier (15-5) (5-2) RPI 36 SoS 45
Vital
signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 69, 2-4 vs.
Top 50, 8-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 115/50
Quality
wins: N-Cincy, Tennessee and a bunch of
marginal home wins
Bad
losses: N-USC
Boy, the
bubble approaches quickly in this conference.
Meanwhile, that signature win is getting better and better. Plus, the depth in the resume is good which
helps erase a couple losses that might be marginal. Clear #3 in the conference for now.
Providence
(15-6) (5-3) RPI 48 SoS 59
Vital
signs: 4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 163, 2-3 vs.
Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 146/54
Quality
wins: Creighton, Xavier, G’town?
Bad
losses: home to Seton Hall, N-Maryland,
@Marquette?
Those
marginal losses are really denting this profile. They’ve got the high end win or two they need
to squeeze past the bubble for now, but they’ll need to all more profile heft
in the next month. Problem is it’s going
to get early late for them, as home chances against 2 of the top 3 are already
used up.
Georgetown
(11-9) (3-6) RPI 74 SoS 24
Vital signs: 3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 75, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 4-7
vs. Top 100, avg W/L 154/63
Quality
wins: N-VCU, N-Kansas St
Bad
losses: N-Northeastern, Seton Hall,
Marquette
At this
point, they’re barely clinging to the bubble with those two quality wins. Move along.
NIT watch
Marquette
(12-9) (4-4) RPI 79 SoS 60 – Boy, we’ve already reached NIT watch? Seems very soon. But the fact is that the Big East is
down. And it starts here. They did beat Provi and G. Washington on a
neutral. And 8 of the 9 losses are top
50 losses, so they’re not doing ridiculous things. However, too many chances are by the boards
to take this team seriously.
St John’s
(12-9) (2-6) RPI 78 SoS 35 – The signature win is @Butler. Pass.
Seton Hall
(12-9) (3-5) RPI 143 SoS 124 – That RPI/SoS suggests there’s no meat in this
resume. It’s right.
EIEIO watch
Butler
(11-9) (2-7) RPI 89 SoS 65
No
postseason
DePaul
(10-11) (2-6)
Big Sky
Conference
championship watch
Weber St
(9-6) (8-1) RPI 164 SoS 243
Northern
Colorado (11-5) (7-2) RPI 158 SoS 312
I’ll be
highly surprised if anyone other than these 2 contend. NCU has the signature win at Kansas St. The only other top 200 win either team owns
is Northern Colorado’s win over Weber St at home.
EIEIO watch
Portland St
(8-8) (5-4) RPI 283 SoS 320 – I guess if there’s going to be another postseason
team. But there’s a good chance there
won’t be; N. Dakota is only 9-10 overall and no one else is really doing
anything.
No
postseason
North Dakota
(7-10) (6-3)
Northern
Arizona (7-12) (5-4)
Montana St (7-10)
(4-4)
Montana (7-9)
(4-5)
Idaho St (5-11)
(4-5)
Eastern
Washington (6-12) (3-6)
Sacramento
St (5-11) (3-6)
Southern
Utah (0-17) (0-9)
Big South
Conference
championship watch
Coastal
Carolina (9-9) (5-2) RPI 245 SoS 307
Campbell (8-10)
(5-2) RPI 280 SoS 331
Two teams at
5-2, six at 4-3. It’s a mess. This conference is beelining towards Dayton. Frankly, ignore everything I write for this
conference below; I’m listing it for accounting purposes only. Use it to help project, with the understanding
it’ll change quickly. Also, everyone has
a plurality of non-D1 wins.
EIEIO watch
Radford (11-8)
(4-3) RPI 231 SoS 345
No
postseason
VMI (7-9)
(4-3)
Winthrop
(8-9) (4-3)
Gardner-Webb
(8-11) (4-3)
UNC
Asheville (7-11) (4-3)
High Point
(6-12) (4-3)
Liberty
(6-13) (3-4)
Charleston
Southern (5-11) (3-4)
Longwood
(3-15) (2-5)
Presbyterian
(2-18) (0-7)
B1G
Lockbox
Michigan St
(19-2) (8-1) RPI 5 SoS 8
Vital
signs: 10-0 R/N, non-con SoS 47, 6-2 vs.
Top 50, 11-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 113/28
Quality wins: N-Kentucky, N-Oklahoma, @Iowa, @Texas, OSU,
Minny, sweep of Indiana
Bad
losses: both losses are home losses, one
to UNC
10 R/N wins,
11 Top 100 wins. There’s plenty of depth
in the resume. Right in line for a 1
seed, probably dependent on their placement within the B1G. They’ll need to make up the loss to Michigan
in the standings.
Michigan
(16-4) (8-0) RPI 13 SoS 13
Vital
signs: 7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 66, 6-3 vs.
Top 50, 9-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 121/37
Quality
wins: @Michigan St, @Wisky, @Minny,
N-Florida St, Iowa
Bad
losses: N-Charlotte
They’ve got
some equity in their R/N results. 6-2
R/N vs. Top 100. That’s quite good,
actually. With most of the big results
made away from home, their seed could really skyrocket with more good B1G
results. N-Charlotte is ignorable at
this stage.
Iowa (16-5)
(5-3) RPI 37 SoS 64
Vital
signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 228, 3-5 vs.
Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 150/8
Quality
wins: Minny, @OSU, N-Xavier?
Bad
losses: all losses are inside the RPI
Top 15
The good
news is all losses are respectable. The
bad news is a lousy non-con SoS and no real high-end wins to support a top 3
seed. They’re a lock, obviously, but
their seed is hard to pin down right now.
They’ll need a high-end result to lock down a protected seed, given how
many teams they’re behind in the pecking order (Nova, Michigan, MSU, Wisky, Ia
St)
Wisconsin
(17-4) (4-4) RPI 9 SoS 3
Vital
signs: 7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 10, 4-2 vs.
Top 50, 10-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 108/54
Quality
wins: Florida, @Virginia, N-St Louis,
Iowa, @Green Bay?
Bad
losses: Northwestern! Also, @Indiana?
Still in the
lockbox for now despite the big slide.
To be fair, there is a monster non-con season that will help this
profile out for a while. Just stop
losing and they’ll be fine for a nice seed.
Everything about this profile screamed 1 seed before the slide. Long way to go.
Bubble
Minnesota
(14-6) (4-4) RPI 28 SoS 4
Vital
signs: 2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 49, 4-4 vs.
Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 137/36
Quality
wins: Wisky, Ohio St, Florida St,
@Richmond?
Bad
losses: @Nebraska, N-Arkansas
Quality
results at home are getting them into the field for now. Shaky record vs. Top 100 and R/N make this
your classic bubble case, though. Tough
to imagine them sliding out of the field unless they whiff a lot in conference
play.
Ohio St
(16-5) (3-5) RPI 29 SoS 27
Vital
signs: 2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 48, 1-3 vs.
Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 127/46
Quality
wins: NDSU? @Marquette, Illinois, Delaware…uh oh
Bad
losses: Penn St at home
Amazing what
a couple losses do to a profile that was barren to begin with. 6 wins in between 51-100, and Maryland,
Marquette, Ohio are in there. Names that
look better than the profile support they give.
Legit bubble trouble now, although they’re still probably in the field
of 68.
Indiana
(13-8) (3-5) RPI 69 SoS 55
Vital
signs: 2-6 R/N, non-con SoS 166, 1-4 vs.
Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 180/50
Quality
wins: Wisky
Bad
losses: Northwestern
That home
win over Wisky is the profile support right now. Right on the edge of falling off the bubble.
NIT watch
Illinois
(13-8) (2-6) RPI 66 SoS 61 – You can make an argument they should be in the
same category as Indiana, but they lack the signature win they have (N-Missouri
has lost steam). 4-6 R/N and 3-6 vs. Top
100 are critical flaws.
EIEIO watch
Purdue
(13-8) (3-5) RPI 101 SoS 101 – No wins over tournament teams.
No
postseason
Northwestern
(11-11) (4-5)
Nebraska
(11-9) (3-5)
Penn St
(11-10) (2-6) – Kinda weird, with everyone over .500. Obviously some are missing the
postseason. The RPIs here are 100, 68
(!), and 98, respectively. Jeez. The entire conference is in the top 100.
Big West
Conference
championship watch
UC Santa
Barbara (11-6) (4-2) RPI 92 SoS 165
UC Irvine
(11-9) (4-2) RPI 144 SoS 180
Long Beach
St (6-12) (4-2) RPI 104 SoS 9
The entire
conference is between 4-2 and 2-5.
EVERYBODY. Good luck projecting
this one out. UCSB beat Cal, Irvine won
at Washington, so this conference can do things. LBSU played their typically insane schedule. If you want to get technical, UCSB own the
tiebreakers as of today.
EIEIO watch
Hawaii (12-6)
(3-3) RPI 140 SoS 206
No
postseason
Cal Poly
(6-12) (4-3)
Cal St
Northridge (9-11) (3-4)
Cal St
Fullerton (7-12) (2-3)
UC Davis (5-14)
(2-4)
UC Riverside
(5-14) (2-5)
Colonial
Conference
championship watch
Delaware
(15-7) (7-0) RPI 62 SoS 140
Towson
(11-8) (4-2) RPI 156 SoS 234
Delaware is
the class, and only Towson seems capable enough to run them down. Delaware has a surprisingly high RPI for a team
with zero top 100 wins – they’ve lost to some good teams. Overall, a decent start to the season for the
CAA has regressed. The good news is they
stabilized a bit and aren’t freefalling in the RPI anymore. It’s a small step forward for this conference.
EIEIO watch
William
& Mary (11-8) (4-3) RPI 141 SoS 188 – There’s actually a bit of a traffic
jam in the middle of the conference, so the EIEIO watch could be fluid in
January.
Drexel
(11-9) (3-4) RPI 115 SoS 110 – Sigh.
That win over Alabama evaporated into nothing. They scheduled up and got beaten up as a
result.
No
postseason
Northeastern
(7-15) (4-4)
Charleston (11-11) (3-4)
Charleston (11-11) (3-4)
James
Madison (8-13) (3-4)
Hofstra
(7-15) (3-4)
UNC
Wilmington (6-15) (0-6)
CUSA
Bubble
Southern
Miss (16-3) (5-1) RPI 34 SoS 133
Vital
signs: 10-3 R/N, non-con SoS 138, 1-1
vs. Top 50, 3-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 172/94
Quality
wins: @NDSU is nice, La Tech
Bad
losses: probably @WKU and @Tulsa
The 3 losses
are all roadies, at least, and they avoided a bad non-con SoS through decent
scheduling that saw many average opponents and little good ones outside of
Louisville. Need to make serious hay in
CUSA. 10 road wins is a positive in
their ledger, though.
NIT watch
Louisiana
Tech (16-5) (5-2) RPI 73 SoS 199 – Such a shame to demote them, but you have
to. Losses of @UTEP and La-L are just
killers, even with that signature win at Oklahoma. That 8-4 R/N record, too. Sigh.
UTEP (13-6)
(5-1) RPI 85 SoS 98 – Creeping into NIT talk with wins of N-Tennessee and La
Tech. Couple marginal losses though.
Charlotte
(13-7) (4-3) RPI 121 SoS 195 – I’m ignoring the RPI and looking at neutral wins
over Michigan and Kansas St. Shame they
have 5 sub-100 losses.
EIEIO watch
MTSU (12-7)
(4-2) RPI 94 SoS 118 – Outside NIT, perhaps, but a high CUSA finish is
required.
UAB (12-6)
(3-3) RPI 118 SoS 180 – I’ll close the postseason door behind this for now, but
I can see 1 or 2 others get into play.
Particularly ODU and Tulsa.
No
postseason
Old Dominion
(10-11) (4-2)
Tulsa (9-11)
(4-2)
* Florida
International (9-9) (3-3)
Tulane
(10-10) (3-3)
Texas-San Antonio (5-11) (3-3)
Texas-San Antonio (5-11) (3-3)
North Texas
(8-9) (2-4)
Florida
Atlantic (5-14) (2-4)
Marshall
(6-14) (2-5)
Rice (4-14)
(1-6)
East Carolina (7-10) (0-6)
East Carolina (7-10) (0-6)
Horizon
Bubble
Green Bay
(14-4) (7-1) RPI 61 SoS 151
Vital
signs: 7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 92, 1-2 vs.
Top 50, 1-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 186/72
Quality
wins: Virginia
Bad
losses: @Valpo, @EMU
Courtesy
look, with one quality win propping this up.
The dream is probably over, though.
Behind this,
there’s a bunch of decent teams. Several
will make the postseason, but the NIT might be too hopeful.
EIEIO watch
Cleveland St
(12-9) (5-3) RPI 107 SoS 141
Valparaiso
(10-10) (5-3) RPI 166 SoS 155
Youngstown
St (10-9) (4-3) RPI 165 SoS 193
Wright St
(11-11) (5-4) RPI 214 SOS 285
No
postseason
Milwaukee
(13-9) (4-5)
Oakland (6-14)
(3-4)
Detroit (8-13)
(3-5)
Illinois-Chicago
(3-17) (0-8)
Ivy
Bubble
Harvard
(14-3) (2-0) RPI 49 SoS 175
Vital
signs: 9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 175, 0-2 vs.
Top 50, 2-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 192/107
Quality
wins: N-Green Bay?
Bad
losses: @FIU
Not likely
at this point. Sorry.
NIT watch
Princeton
(11-3) (0-1) RPI 105 SoS 301 – Shiny record, but empty calories inside.
EIEIO watch
Columbia
(12-6) (2-0) RPI 145 SoS 259 – We’ve got an entire conference season ahead of
us, so these postseason projections can change fast.
No
postseason
Penn (4-11)
(1-0)
Brown (8-7)
(1-1)
Yale (6-9)
(1-1)
Dartmouth
(5-9) (0-2)
Cornell
(0-15) (0-2)
MAAC
Conference
championship watch
Canisius
(15-6) (9-2) RPI 81 SoS 223
Iona (11-8)
(8-2) RPI 124 SoS 164
Manhattan
(14-5) (7-3) RPI 96 SoS 219
Quinnipiac
(12-8) (7-4) RPI 110 SoS 156
All of the
at-large chances are by the boards, and the resumes are merely average at best. There’s no reason they can’t sneak in a NIT team
or two, though. But only if there’s
separation at the top. Manhattan’s road
win at LaSalle is the signature win among these 4 teams.
No
postseason
Rider (10-9)
(6-4)
Siena
(10-12) (6-5)
Monmouth
(10-12) (4-7)
Marist
(7-14) (4-7)
St Peter’s
(7-12) (3-7)
Niagara
(6-16) (3-8)
Fairfield
(4-17) (1-9)
MAC
Bubble
Toledo
(17-2) (6-1) RPI 30 SoS 138
Vital
signs: 8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 165, 0-1 vs.
Top 50, 1-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 178/79
Quality
wins: @Akron?
Bad
losses: @Western Michigan
The shiny
record and RPI forces them into this breakdown, by sheer will. But this isn’t lasting short of a big, big
MAC season for them.
NIT watch
Akron (14-6)
(6-1) RPI 91 SoS 190
Ohio (14-5)
(5-2) RPI 88 SoS 188 – Hey, at least Ohio beat Richmond on the road. Still, either of these teams can still make
the NIT, although the bubble is too far away to get to.
EIEIO watch
Buffalo (10-6)
(5-2) RPI 114 SoS 171
Eastern
Michigan (9-8) (4-3) RPI 63 SoS 18 – Look at that SoS!
Western
Michigan (10-8) (4-3) RPI 157 SoS 201
No
postseason
Miami(OH)
(8-9) (4-3)
Bowling
Green (8-11) (3-4)
Kent St
(10-9) (2-5)
Northern
Illinois (7-11) (2-5)
Ball St
(2-14) (1-6)
Central
Michigan (5-12) (0-7)
MEAC
Conference
championship watch
North
Carolina Central (12-5) (5-1) RPI 122 SoS 286
Norfolk St
(9-9) (6-2) RPI 271 SoS 346
The
standings are still a bit compact, but these two teams feel like they’re the
class. Several contenders lurk below,
though. NCCU has a road win at NC State
and another at ODU in their hip pocket, for seeding purposes. Norfolk St won at Boston.
EIEIO watch
Hampton
(10-10) (5-2) RPI 243 SoS 311 – Other contenders may emerge, but everyone else
took on a lot of water in the non-con, as per usual.
No
postseason
Savannah St
(5-14) (5-2)
Morgan St
(6-12) (4-2)
Coppin St
(6-13) (4-3)
North
Carolina A&T (6-14) (3-3)
Howard
(3-16) (3-3)
Florida
A&M (6-13) (3-4)
South
Carolina St (5-13) (3-4)
Bethune-Cookman
(2-19) (2-6)
UMES (1-15)
(0-5)
Delaware St
(2-15) (0-5)
MVC
Lockbox
Wichita St
(21-0) (9-0) RPI 7 SoS 81
Vital signs: 9-0 R/N, non-con SoS 37, 3-0 vs. Top 50, 6-0
vs. Top 100, avg W/L 137/0
Quality
wins: @St Louis, Tennessee, N-BYU,
Indiana St?
Bad
losses: nope
I love
everyone saying they didn’t play anyone, when they have a 37 non-con SoS. Anyways, their pursuit of the 1 seed is out
of their hands until enough other teams absorb enough losses. Their seed can still fluctuate wildly, all of
it beyond their control. Stay tuned.
Bubble
Indiana St
(14-5) (7-2) RPI 57 SoS 152
Vital
signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 192, 0-2 vs.
Top 50, 2-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 196/94
Quality
wins: Belmont, @Notre Dame, Missouri
St. Hoo boy
Bad
losses: N-Tulsa, @SIU
Nope, nope,
nope. Shame for the Valley, but this
profile just isn’t getting it done.
NIT watch
Northern
Iowa (10-10) (5-4)
Missouri St
(13-7) (4-5) – And even both of these listings seems optimistic.
EIEIO watch
Illinois St
(10-10) (4-5)
Drake (11-9)
(3-6)
No
postseason
Bradley
(9-13) (4-5)
Evansville
(8-12) (3-6)
Loyola(Chi)
(7-13) (3-6)
Southern
Illinois (6-15) (3-6)
Mountain
West
Lockbox
San Diego St
(16-1) (7-0) RPI 17 SoS 87
Vital
signs: 9-0 R/N, non-con SoS 44, 2-1 vs.
Top 50, 5-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 161/2
Quality
wins: @Kansas, N-Creighton….then Boise
and Washington?
Bad
losses: none
The issues
remain the same: the MW is down, hurting
SDSU’s chance at the 1 or 2 lines. It’s
clear, though, they have the top-end wins to merit it though. The question will be how the committee treats
the relative lack of depth in their profile.
They also have a good SoS to lean on.
Basically, everything but the lack of depth is a big plus for SDSU. They will be one of the toughest teams to
seed in March.
New Mexico
(16-4) (7-1) RPI 27 SoS 40
Vital
signs: 9-2 R/N, non-con SoS 18, 1-2 vs.
Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 151/48
Quality
wins: Cincinnati, Boise St, @NMSU or
N-Marquette?
Bad
losses: UNLV and NMSU at home aren’t
great
Maybe an
aggressive call on the lockdown, but I can’t see them missing. Cincy win erases neutral losses to Kansas and
UMass. Basically, they’re in bad loss
avoidance at this stage. This is not the
same MW of the past few years, so profile strength isn’t necessarily coming
down the road for them.
Bubble
Boise St
(13-6) (5-3) RPI 55 SoS 71
Vital
signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 53, 0-4 vs.
Top 50, 0-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 190/38
Quality
wins: nope
Bad
losses: Wyoming
Good news is
that Wyoming is the only loss that actually looks bad. Bad news is, well, it’s easy to spot. I’m being generous here even letting them on
the bubble. This ain’t happening. Worse, they’ve already lost @SDSU and
@UNM. Must win the return games, period.
NIT watch
Nevada
(11-10) (6-2) RPI 125 SoS 100 – Storming to the front of the MWC is just
hurting the conference, sadly.
UNLV (14-7)
(5-3) RPI 107 SoS 129 – A litany of home losses have killed the profile before
it had a chance to live.
Wyoming
(11-7) (4-3) RPI 103 SoS 121
EIEIO watch
Colorado St
(10-9) (3-5) RPI 168 SoS 108
Utah St
(11-8) (2-6) RPI 116 SoS 94
No
postseason
Air Force
(7-10) (3-5)
Fresno St
(7-13) (2-7)
San Jose St
(4-15) (0-9)
Northeast
Conference
championship watch
Robert
Morris (12-10) (7-0) RPI 129 SoS 200
Bryant (12-9)
(5-2) RPI 155 SoS 207
This is
pretty clearly RMU’s conference to lose.
Bryant has the best chance to chase them down, with none of the 4-3
teams below separating themselves from the field. RMU has already swept Bryant. However, those are its only two Top 200 wins.
EIEIO watch
St
Francis(NY) (12-9) (4-3) RPI 173 SoS 287 – And two Top 100 wins!
No
postseason
Wagner
(9-10) (4-3)
Mount St
Mary’s (8-12) (4-3)
Fairleigh
Dickinson (7-12) (4-3)
St
Francis(PA) (5-15) (3-4)
LIU (7-13)
(2-5)
Central
Connecticut St (4-15) (1-6)
Sacred Heart
(4-18) (1-6)
OVC
Conference
championship watch
Belmont
(16-7) (8-1) RPI 60 SoS 124
Murray St (10-8)
(7-1) RPI 187 SoS 250
Eastern
Kentucky (13-7) (6-3) RPI 127 SoS 252
Belmont had a faint whiff of the bubble for a while, but it’s gone by the boards with several losses. There’s a fair chance this conference gets an at-large bid to the NIT in some form, though.
Belmont’s profile is actually worth one more glance. Two marginal losses to Denver and S. Dakota St on the road kills it; but wins at UNC, MTSU, and at home to Indiana St aren’t nothing to sneeze at. Murray does not have a good profile at all, so don’t bother.
EIEIO watch
Morehead St
(12-9) (5-3) RPI 130 SoS 183
No
postseason
SIU-E (6-14)
(4-4)
Jacksonville
St (8-14) (4-5)
Eastern
Illinois (5-14) (4-5)
Austin Peay
(7-12) (3-4)
Southeast
Missouri St (10-10) (3-5)
Tennessee
Tech (8-13) (3-5)
Tennessee-Martin
(5-17) (2-7)
Tennessee St
(2-21) (2-8)
Pac-12
Lockbox
Arizona
(21-0) (8-0) RPI 2 SoS 12
Vital
signs: 7-0 R/N, non-con SoS 28, 7-0 vs.
Top 50, 9-0 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 104/0
Quality
wins: N-Duke, @SDSU, @Michigan, @UCLA,
Colorado, @Stanford
Bad losses:
The #1
profile, and it can take on quite a bit of water before losing a 1 seed.
UCLA (17-4)
(6-2) RPI 16 SoS 16
Vital
signs: 4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 4-3 vs.
Top 50, 8-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 125/42
Quality
wins: @Colorado, @Oregon, Arizona St,
Stanford, Cal
Bad
losses: Utah
You can
kinda see the issue here; a complete lack of non-con results. Lost to Duke and Mizzou, beat the teams they
should. If they hold 2nd in
the Pac-12, it’ll be a non-issue, but it might be worth a seeding line or two
in March.
Bubble
Colorado
(15-6) (4-4) RPI 26 SoS 9
Vital
signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 29, 3-4 vs.
Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 145/35
Quality
wins: Kansas, Oregon, Harvard?
Bad
losses: perhaps @Washington
Really tough
call on who’s #3 in the Pac-12 pecking order.
It should change frequently.
Colorado’s in the spot for now.
They’re racking up all their equity in home wins right now, which is
usually trouble. They’ve lost a bunch of
road games, including to bubble teams. Loss
@Washington, beat Oregon at home, it’s that kind of team.
Stanford
(13-7) (4-4) RPI 50 SoS 32
Vital
signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 71, 2-5 vs.
Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 163/38
Quality
wins: @UConn, @Oregon, and a lot of nope
Bad
losses: @Oregon St
A couple of
road wins elevate this profile slightly above its fellow bubblers, but in
reality they’re in the same position as them – head-to-head battles are going
to be key going forward.
Arizona St
(16-5) (5-3) RPI 40 SoS 74
Vital
signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 198, 1-3 vs.
Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 165/39
Quality
wins: Colorado, @Cal, Marquette?
Bad
losses: N-Miami and Washington are dicey
A rather
marginal non-conference season put them at risk. Colorado isn’t as impressive a win as it
seems. This is your standard fare bubble
profile where everything is yet to be decided.
At least they’re competent on the road, though.
California
(14-7) (5-3) RPI 54 SoS 66
Vital
signs: 4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 2-4 vs.
Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 156/51
Quality
wins: @Oregon, @Stanford…N-Arkansas?
Bad
losses: @USC and @UCSB aren’t great
The good
news is the best of the wins are road/neutral wins, which the committee will
gravitate to. It also gives them the
chance to gain an upper hand in head-to-head bubble battles in this conference,
of which it appears there will be plenty.
Oregon
(14-6) (2-6) RPI 47 SoS 41
Vital
signs: 5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 72, 1-3 vs.
Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 138/54
Quality
wins: BYU, @Ole Miss, N-Illinois,
N-Georgetown…yeah
Bad
losses: @Oregon St
Losers of 6
of 7 and are in big trouble. That’s an
impressive non-con slate, until we realized none of those teams are probably
tournament teams. Ouch. Need to find a baseline in conference play,
because they’re losing all these crucial head-to-head battles against fellow
bubble teams. Their non-con profile is
still better than the others, so they can rescue this season easily.
NIT watch
Washington
(13-8) (5-3) RPI 69 SoS 63 – They’re not quite on the same plane as the bubble
teams, but it’s still attainable for them.
No result of note in the non-con except for a couple bad, bad losses,
but more wins like @Arizona St and Colorado can rescue them.
Utah (12-6)
(3-5) RPI 111 SoS 153 – 4th easiest non-conference schedule, if
you’re wondering. Erases wins over UCLA
and BYU. Their next road win is their
first.
EIEIO watch
Oregon St
(12-8) (4-4) RPI 117 SoS 115
No
postseason
USC (9-11)
(1-7)
Washington St (7-12) (1-7)
Washington St (7-12) (1-7)
Patriot
Conference
championship watch
American
(13-7) (9-0) RPI 134 SoS 278
Boston
(15-7) (8-1) RPI 86 SoS 173
It’s pretty
clear these two are the class of the league.
American’s non-con is legitimate Dayton material. Meanwhile, Boston won at Maryland,
Quinnipiac, and Irvine. You tell me
who’s better. Alas, Boston lost at
American. This conference better hope
Boston comes through.
EIEIO watch
Holy Cross
(12-9) (6-3) RPI 153 SoS 225
No
postseason
Army (9-10)
(6-3)
Lehigh
(11-11) (4-5)
Bucknell
(9-11) (4-5)
Loyola(MD)
(8-11) (4-5)
Colgate
(7-12) (2-7)
Navy (6-13) (2-7)
Lafayette
(3-16) (0-9)
SEC
Lockbox
Florida
(18-2) (7-0) RPI 4 SoS 33
Vital
signs: 7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 19, 5-2 vs.
Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 131/23
Quality
wins: Kansas, N-Memphis, FSU, Richmond
and Tennessee?
Bad
losses: no, both are quality roadies
Good thing
they have non-con results of note, because the SEC is down, yet again. There’s a couple useful ones in terms of
getting a 1 seed. But Kentucky will
probably decide how worthy they are of that.
Kentucky
(15-5) (5-2) RPI 15 SoS 5
Vital
signs: 2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 3-2 vs.
Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 119/53
Quality
wins: Louisville, Tennessee,
N-Provi? Boise St?
Bad
losses: I guess @Baylor and @Arkansas
counts
The issue is
road/neutral success, as should be evident.
By scheduling up, they gave themselves margins of error, though. The committee will give them the benefit of
the doubt unless they slip up too much against the meaty underbelly of the SEC. They’ll need to nail Florida a couple times
to really get the seed they want, though.
Bubble
Missouri
(16-4) (4-3) RPI 41 SoS 95
Vital
signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 124, 1-0 vs.
Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 152/82
Quality
wins: UCLA, @NC St? @Arkansas perhaps
Bad
losses: Georgia, @Vandy
Mizzou is 3rd
by default, I guess. Win over UCLA has
some mileage, but they need resume heft.
And maybe more importantly, need separation from the rest of the SEC.
Tennessee
(12-7) (4-3) RPI 44 SoS 11
Vital
signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 33, 2-4 vs.
Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 149/50
Quality
wins: Virginia, N-Xavier, @LSU, Ole Miss
Bad
losses: N-UTEP, Texas A&M, NC St?
At least UT
scheduled up, which gets them to the top of the heap for the time being. They have two legitimate wins as of right
now, which gets them an ounce of separation.
Their fate is ahead of them.
LSU (13-6)
(4-3) RPI 53 SoS 50
Vital
signs: 4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 85, 2-3 vs.
Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 140/61
Quality
wins: Kentucky, Missouri, N-St Joe’s
Bad
losses: Rhode Island, @Bama
Their ace in
the hole for the time being is good home wins to lean on. They’ve got bad losses and some wins of
marginal value, just like everyone else.
Getting the Kentucky game in the hip pocket may be the difference, for
now at least.
Ole Miss
(14-6) (5-2) RPI 56 SoS 78
Vital
signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 116, 0-3 vs.
Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 170/71
Quality
wins: LSU at home?
Bad
losses: @Mississippi St, perhaps Dayton
and Mercer
The resume
says this is not a tournament team, plain and simple. Go get a win of note.
Arkansas
(13-7) (2-5) RPI 86 SoS 80
Vital
signs: 1-5 R/N, non-con SoS 190, 2-4 vs.
Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 200/65
Quality
wins: Kentucky, N-Minnesota, SMU,
Clemson
Bad
losses: @Georgia, @Texas A&M
Boy, if they
could just not be inept on the road. The
quality of the wins are the only thing keeping it clinging to the bubble.
EIEIO watch
Georgia
(10-9) (4-3) RPI 132 SoS 84
Mississippi
St (13-7) (3-4) RPI 147 SoS 196
Texas
A&M (12-8) (3-4) RPI 152 SoS 142
Vanderbilt
(11-8) (3-4) RPI 76 SoS 56 – I don’t even feel good projecting any of these
four teams in the NIT, hell.
No
postseason
Alabama
(8-11) (3-4)
Auburn (9-9)
(1-6)
South
Carolina (8-12) (1-6)
SoCon
Conference
championship watch
Chattanooga
(11-9) (8-1) RPI 217 SoS 329
Davidson
(10-11) (7-1) RPI 145 SoS 122
I suppose
others have a shot at this, but I’m not excited about any of them. And frankly, neither am I about Chattanooga,
with no Top 150 win. Davidson at least
won @Charlotte and N-Georgia. Meh. This conference is careening towards Dayton
no matter what.
I guess I
could project other postseason teams; a few are straddling around .500 when you
include non D1 games. But nope. Serve your penance for now.
No
postseason
Western
Carolina (9-11) (5-3)
Wofford
(8-10) (5-3)
Elon (9-10)
(4-3)
UNC
Greensboro (8-12) (4-4)
Georgia
Southern (7-12) (3-4)
Samford
(6-13) (3-4)
Appalachian
St (2-14) (2-5)
Furman
(5-12) (1-6)
Citadel
(1-18) (0-8)
Southland
Conference
championship watch
Stephen F
Austin (17-2) (8-0) RPI 93 SoS 338
Sam Houston
St (13-6) (7-2) RPI 119 SoS 283
Really, it’s
SFA and then everyone else. SFA has
their typical garbage schedule with no quality wins of note, so please don’t
get carried away with that record or even that RPI. In fact, no one in this conference is doing a
darn thing.
Note: some sites are counting IW and ACU in the RPI
and others aren’t, some count them as D1 and some don’t. There may be discrepancies in all of these
numbers, but they’re close enough for your purposes.
EIEIO watch
Nicholls St
(8-8) (6-2) RPI 219 SoS 308
No
postseason
Texas
A&M-CC (8-12) (6-3)
* New
Orleans (6-9) (5-4)
Oral Roberts
(8-11) (4-4)
Northwestern
St (6-11) (4-4)
McNeese St
(4-14) (4-4)
SE Louisiana
(7-11) (4-5)
Central
Arkansas (5-14) (2-6)
Lamar (3-18)
(2-7)
Houston
Baptist (3-17) (1-8)
* Incarnate
Word (4-4) (4-3)
* Abilene
Christian (1-13) (1-6)
SWAC
Conference
championship watch
Southern
(8-10) (7-1) RPI 191 SoS 222
Alabama St
(8-7) (5-2) RPI 268 SoS 351
I don’t care
about the SWAC and neither should you.
No
postseason
Texas
Southern (8-10) (5-2)
Alcorn St
(5-12) (5-3)
Prairie View
A&M (5-13) (4-3)
Jackson St
(7-12) (3-4)
Alabama
A&M (4-11) (3-4)
* Mississippi
Valley St (3-14) (2-5)
* Arkansas-Pine
Bluff (2-15) (2-5)
* Grambling
(0-14) (0-7)
Summit
Bubble
North Dakota
St (13-5) (5-1) RPI 42 SoS 97
Vital
signs: 8/4 R/N, non-con SoS 24, 0-2 vs.
Top 50, 1-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 175/99
Quality
wins: @Notre Dame, Delaware?
Bad
losses: @N Dak, @IPFW?
Throwing
NDSU a bone here, with that shiny non-con SoS and road win at ND. I doubt this ends well for them, but we’ll
let them on the board for now.
EIEIO watch
IPFW (14-6)
(5-1) RPI 138 SoS 300 – A modicum of respect to IPFW for a nice season so far.
No
postseason
South Dakota
St (8-10) (3-3)
Denver
(9-11) (3-3)
Western
Illinois (6-12) (3-3)
South Dakota
(6-12) (3-3)
*
Nebraska-Omaha (10-9) (2-4)
IUPUI (2-18)
(0-6)
Sun Belt
Conference
championship watch
Georgia St
(12-6) (7-0) RPI 84 SoS 211
Western
Kentucky (13-7) (6-2) RPI 113 SoS 174
If you’re
wondering, GSU didn’t do anything of note outside of the conference, so don’t
get carried away. WKU did beat Southern
Miss on the road so I’m still betting on them.
Expect madness, like every year, in this conference tournament. GSU’s lead means nothing.
EIEIO watch
Arkansas St
(10-8) (4-4) RPI 190 SoS 289 – Well, odds are there’ll be a 3rd
postseason team…
No
postseason
Arkansas-Little
Rock (9-10) (6-3)
Texas-Arlington
(7-11) (4-4)
Louisiana-Monroe
(6-9) (4-4)
Louisiana-Lafayette
(9-9) (3-5) – They actually won at La Tech and looked competent for a bit.
Texas St
(4-14) (2-5)
Troy (5-13)
(2-6)
South
Alabama (4-13) (1-6)
WCC
Lockbox
Gonzaga
(18-3) (9-1) RPI 23 SoS 89
Vital
signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 1-1 vs.
Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 139/92
Quality
wins: BYU, St Mary’s, NMSU…N-Arkansas…
Bad
losses: @Portland
Maybe this
is an aggressive lock. I can’t imagine
this team screwing things up enough to miss the tournament, though. Their seed won’t be great, however. Not a lot of success away from home; there’s
some empty calories in this profile that usually aren’t there.
Bubble
BYU (13-9)
(6-4) RPI 46 SoS 22
Vital
signs: 5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 5, 2-5 vs.
Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 142/71
Quality
wins: N-Texas, @Stanford
Bad
losses: @Utah, @Pepperdine, @Loyola
Marymount, @Portland…sigh
That shining
non-con SoS keeps it alive, along with a couple of wins that at least have to
be respected. However, as you can see,
the road in the WCC may be a problem here.
St Mary’s
(15-6) (6-3) RPI 51 SoS 72
Vital
signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 59, 1-1 vs.
Top 50, 5-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 137/139
Quality
wins: NDSU, @Boise, La Tech
Bad
losses: 4 outside the top 125
You can’t
lose all these marginal games like Mason, Santa Clara, @San Diego, when you
just don’t have high end wins to balance them out. This is starting to look like a solid miss.
NIT watch
San
Francisco (12-8) (7-3) RPI 89 SoS 79 – 2nd in the WCC! If you’re wondering, no top 100 wins.
EIEIO watch
Pepperdine
(11-10) (5-5) RPI 130 SoS 130
San Diego
(11-10) (4-6) RPI 142 SoS 157
Portland (12-10)
(4-6) RPI 161 SoS 123
No
postseason
Loyola
Marymount (10-11) (3-7)
Santa Clara
(8-13) (3-7)
Pacific (10-9) (2-7)
Pacific (10-9) (2-7)
WAC
Conference
championship watch
Utah Valley (11-7) (7-0) RPI 151 SoS 262
New Mexico
St (15-7) (5-2) RPI 72 SoS 139
In a major
upset, NMSU is 2 down to another team! I
have no idea if this will last.
Actually, I do. UVU hasn’t played
NMSU yet and their signature win is Weber St at home. This situation should correct.
While NMSU
did win at New Mexico, UTEP, and Hawaii, bad bad road losses to UMKC and
Chicago St have ended any faint hopes of an at-large.
No
postseason
Grand Canyon
(7-10) (5-2)
Chicago St (7-12)
(4-3)
UMKC (7-12)
(4-3)
Idaho (7-13)
(2-5)
Texas-Pan
American (5-16) (2-5)
Seattle (7-10)
(1-5)
Cal St
Bakersfield (7-13) (1-6)
And a
special shoutout to independent NJIT (8-14), who’s going nowhere.
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