WEST
@San Diego
1) Arizona (15-0) vs. 16) Stony Brook (8-5)/Radford (7-5)
8) Illinois (13-2) vs. 9) Cincinnati (13-2)
@Orlando
4) UMass (12-1) vs. 13) Drexel (8-5)
5) Duke (11-3) vs. 12) LSU (9-3)/Texas (11-3)
@Raleigh
3) Kentucky (10-3) vs. 14) Mercer (8-5)
6) Iowa (12-3) vs. 11) California (10-4)/SMU (11-3)
@St Louis
2) Oklahoma St (12-2) vs. 15) Northern Colorado (6-3)
7) Memphis (10-3) vs. 10) Florida St (9-4)
SOUTH
@Buffalo
1) Ohio St (15-0) vs. 16) North Carolina Central (5-4)
8) St Louis (12-2) vs. 9) North Carolina (10-4)
@Spokane
4) Colorado (13-2) vs. Manhattan (11-2)
5) Kansas (9-4) vs. 12) Southern Miss (11-2)
@San Diego
3) San Diego St (10-1) vs. 14) UC Santa Barbara (7-4)
6) UConn (11-3) vs. 11) Arkansas (11-2)
@Raleigh
2) Villanova (13-1) vs. 15) Boston (9-6)
7) Pittsburgh (13-1) vs. 10) Kansas St (11-3)
EAST
@Buffalo
1) Syracuse (14-0) vs. 16) Bryant (7-7)
8) Michigan (10-4) vs. 9) VCU (12-3)
@Orlando
4) Florida (11-2) vs. 13) Belmont (9-6)
5) Louisville (13-2) vs. 12) Oklahoma (12-2)
@San Antonio
3) Baylor (10-1) vs. 14) New Mexico St (11-5)
6) Creighton (12-2) vs. 11) George Washington (12-2)
@Milwaukee
2) Michigan St (13-1) vs. 15) Western Kentucky (9-5)
7) UCLA (12-2) vs. 10) Xavier (12-3)
MIDWEST
@Milwaukee
1) Wisconsin (15-0) vs. 16) Elon (5-7)/Jackson St (4-9)
8) New Mexico (10-3) vs. 9) Virginia (10-4)
@Spokane
4) Oregon (13-1) vs. 13) North Dakota St (8-4)
5) Gonzaga (13-2) vs. 12) Toledo (11-1)
@San Antonio
3) Wichita St (14-0) vs. 14) Green Bay (8-3)
6) Missouri (12-1) vs. 11) Minnesota (11-3)
@St Louis
2) Iowa St (13-0) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (11-2)
7) Georgetown (10-3) vs. 10) Harvard (12-1)
Procedural bumps:
California/SMU from the 12 line to the 11 line
Oklahoma from the 11 line to the 12 line
Thoughs on the S-Curve:
1) The 2 line and 3 line aren't as strong as I would have expected. However, the 4 and 5 lines appear strong. Look at the names on the 5 line alone. It's a bit of a traffic jam trying to manage current results along with preseason projections. It's an awkward transition time in bracketology when you slowly shift from expectations to results.
2) The first 3 names on the 1 line, I feel good about. Not sold yet on Ohio State lasting the season, but they're probably there until they lose.
3) 3 B1G teams in the top 5. Distinct chance of that holding in March.
4) With various teams floundering, Wichita is up to the 3 line. Their seed will be very variable, based on what others do around them more than what they do themselves.
5) Sneaky good: the Pac-12, who get Colorado and Oregon now both on the 4 line, and could easily sneak both onto the 3 line by March.
6) Sneaky bad: the SEC. Florida staying on the 4 line, Kentucky on the 3, Missouri on the 6. I don't think the conference can really support a high, high seed.
7) You tell me where to seed UNC. No, really.
8) San Diego St as a 3 seed? Seems frisky. But if they win the MWC, they'll have a fighting chance. THey'll need to do it convincingly, though.
9) No real use analyzing the bubble, as it'll change wildly every day. But note that all of the power conferences have a glut of bubble teams. More so than in years past, it's important to establish a good pecking order in your own conference. Look at Butler losing to Xavier, Stanford losing to Cal, Tennessee behind Arkansas and LSU. With bubble teams from so many conferences, it might be too tough for any one of them to squeeze in multiple bubble teams.
Finally, break it down!:
Big 12 7
B1G 7
ACC 6
Pac 12 5
American 5
SEC 5
A-10 4
Big East 4
MW 2
Note 9 conferences listed. WCC and MVC wither to 1 bid (I expect the WCC to get a 2nd. Doubtful on the MVC). Big 12 get all their bubble teams in. However, odds are that 7 becomes a 6 by March. American is the other big winner, getting to 5 teams with SMU. I could see that one going either way. The American outgunning the Big East is a big surprise, but I give it a 75% chance it reverses by March. All the big conferences get decent totals at the expense of the WCC, MVC, and MW.
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