It feels like we have about thirteen 2 seeds right now. There's just a bit logjam at the top and I don't have a great feel right now for how to separate these teams. Right now, Duke (SoS kings) and Purdue (6 group 1 wins) get the nod on the 1 line, and some true blue bloods are relegated to the 3 line, but that'll change 27 times by the end of the year.
Right now, I'd wager Big East champ, ACC champ, and Big 12 champ have 3 spots on lock, and the SEC has left the door open for Arizona, Michigan St, or Purdue to come on in. Going to be tough for any conference to get two spots on the 1 line without some help from the other conferences.
The 1 line: Villanova (15-1), Virginia (15-1), Duke (14-2), Purdue (16-2)
The 2 line: West Virginia (15-1), Oklahoma (13-2), Xavier (15-3), Michigan St (16-2)
The 3 line: Kentucky (13-3), Kansas (13-3), North Carolina (13-4), Wichita St (14-2)
The 4 line: Arizona (13-4), Texas Tech (14-2), Arizona St (13-3), Clemson (14-2)
The 5 line: Auburn (15-1), Seton Hall (14-3), Cincinnati (14-2), Tennessee (11-4)
The 6 line: TCU (13-3), Miami (13-2), Creighton (14-3), Florida (12-4)
The 7 line: Gonzaga (15-3), Rhode Island (12-3), Nevada (15-3), Ohio St (14-4)
The 8 line: Texas (11-5), Louisville (12-4), Texas A&M (11-5), Notre Dame (12-4)
The 9 line: UCLA (13-4), Butler (13-6), Marquette (12-6), Missouri (11-4)
The 10 line: Arkansas (11-5), Florida St (12-4), St Mary's (16-2), Michigan (13-4)
The 11 line: Boise St (13-3), Syracuse (12-5), Mayrland (13-5), Houston (13-3), St Bonaventure (12-4), Washington (13-4)
The 12 line: New Mexico St (12-3), Middle Tennessee (11-4), Buffalo (12-5), William & Mary (10-4)
The 13 line: South Dakota St (11-5), Vermont (11-5), Louisiana (12-3), Drake (9-8)
The 14 line: Wright St (11-5), East Tennessee St (11-4), Rider (11-6), Belmont (12-6)
The 15 line: Cal St-Fullerton (8-5), Montana (10-5), Penn (10-5), Bucknell (10-8)
The 16 line: Radford (9-7), St Francis(PA) (8-6), FGCU (8-8), SE Louisiana (7-7), Morgan St (5-9), Jackson St (5-10)
Next 4 in:
Florida St
Michigan
Boise St
Syracuse
Last 4 in:
Maryland
Houston
St Bonaventure
Washington
Last 4 out:
LSU (11-4)
Providence (12-6)
Georgia (11-4)
Utah (10-6)
Next 4 out:
USC (12-6)
Virginia Tech (13-4)
Minnesota (13-5)
Alabama (10-6)
Bubble inception - WE NEED TO GO DEEPER:
Baylor (10-5)
Oregon (12-5)
SMU (12-6)
San Diego St (10-4)
Western Kentucky (11-5)
Missouri St (12-5)
Mississippi St (12-3)
Colorado (10-7)
If you don't make the list, the road is long...but still plenty open and wide. There's time.
Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 3
A-10 2
WCC 2
MWC 2
Friday, January 12, 2018
1/11 recap
Bracket for 1/13 should be coming pretty soon.
ACC:
@NC State 78, Clemson 77 - and there is it, finally a slipup by Clemson. It's a freebie for them; no harm no foul given the good work they did till now
B1G:
@Ohio St 91, Maryland 69 - not a good look for Maryland. Meanwhile, looks like we at least have one Big 10 team acting like they want on the good side of the bubble
Iowa 104, @Illinois 97 (OT)
Pac-12:
Oregon 76, @Arizona St 72 - OU comes back from the dead to be relevant again with a Group 0 win; and what in the world do we do with ASU now?
@Arizona 62, Oregon St 53
Stanford 79, @Washington St 70
@Washington 66, California 56
@UCLA 84, Utah 64
AAC:
Wichita St 95, @East Carolina 60
@Houston 104, Tulsa 71
WCC:
@Gonzaga 103, Portland 57
@BYU 83, Pepperdine 83
St Mary's 81, @Santa Clara 57
interesting results:
Wright St 84, @Northern Kentucky 81 - battle of presumptive Horizon faves, and WSU wins on the road
@Little Rock 77, UT Arlington 65 - the hell, Arlington?
Western Kentucky 75, @Old Dominion 68 - presumptive CUSA favorites, and WKU wins on the road
New Mexico St 70, @Grand Canyon 59 - and a game between WAC favorites go to the road team as well. NMSU in legit bubble play for the moment
Pretty soon we'll hone in on some conference races. Still just a bit too early to highlight individual games though.
ACC:
@NC State 78, Clemson 77 - and there is it, finally a slipup by Clemson. It's a freebie for them; no harm no foul given the good work they did till now
B1G:
@Ohio St 91, Maryland 69 - not a good look for Maryland. Meanwhile, looks like we at least have one Big 10 team acting like they want on the good side of the bubble
Iowa 104, @Illinois 97 (OT)
Pac-12:
Oregon 76, @Arizona St 72 - OU comes back from the dead to be relevant again with a Group 0 win; and what in the world do we do with ASU now?
@Arizona 62, Oregon St 53
Stanford 79, @Washington St 70
@Washington 66, California 56
@UCLA 84, Utah 64
AAC:
Wichita St 95, @East Carolina 60
@Houston 104, Tulsa 71
WCC:
@Gonzaga 103, Portland 57
@BYU 83, Pepperdine 83
St Mary's 81, @Santa Clara 57
interesting results:
Wright St 84, @Northern Kentucky 81 - battle of presumptive Horizon faves, and WSU wins on the road
@Little Rock 77, UT Arlington 65 - the hell, Arlington?
Western Kentucky 75, @Old Dominion 68 - presumptive CUSA favorites, and WKU wins on the road
New Mexico St 70, @Grand Canyon 59 - and a game between WAC favorites go to the road team as well. NMSU in legit bubble play for the moment
Pretty soon we'll hone in on some conference races. Still just a bit too early to highlight individual games though.
1/10 recap
Big East:
@Villanova 89, Xavier 65 - no change in status for either team, really, but every Group 1 win does matter when you're battling for the 1 line
@Villanova 89, Xavier 65 - no change in status for either team, really, but every Group 1 win does matter when you're battling for the 1 line
B1G:
@Michigan St 76, Rutgers 72 (OT) - I feel like this game should be referenced every time anyone tries to take this conference seriously. What is going on here?
@Northwestern 83, Minnesota 60 - and here's another one, a team in the tank blowing out a legit bubble team
ACC:
Duke 87, @Pittsburgh 52
Duke 87, @Pittsburgh 52
Louisville 73, @Florida St 69 - UL's been under the radar a bit. A signature win like this solves a lot of bubble anxiety. Meanwhile, FSU is 1-3 in the ACC. This is not a conference where you want to be trapped in the middle of the standings
@Georgia Tech 60, Notre Dame 53 - road wins are always a big ask, but you can't do much losing to non-tourney teams in this conference and get away with it
Virginia Tech 83, @Wake Forest 75 - and here's an example of a win that's more important than you think
Big 12:
@Texas 99, TCU 98 (2OT) - TCU nearly bagged a critical Group 1 win that could've made a difference in battling for a protected seed. As is, Texas gets some bubble cushion instead
@Kansas St 86, Oklahoma St 82 - starting to feel like both teams are going to fall off the bubble pace soon, though
SEC:
@Florida 71, Mississippi St 54
@Missouri 68, Georgia 56
LSU 75, @Arkansas 54 - c'mon Arkansas, what are you doing?
Pac-12:
@USC 70, Colorado 58
AAC:
@UConn 62, UCF 53 - tough to see a path to the good side of the bubble for UCF at this point
Temple 66, @SMU 64 - what the hell? Temple tanks their own bubble chances to start AAC play, then recover just in time to ruin SMU's resume
A-10:
@St Bonaventure 77, Fordham 61
@St Bonaventure 77, Fordham 61
MWC:
UNLV 81, @Air Force 76
MVC:
Loyola(Chi) 68, @Illinois St 61
Loyola(Chi) 68, @Illinois St 61
@Evansville 64, Missouri St 55 - unfortunately, this conference is probably just playing to get on the 11 line at this point, as everyone is absorbing body blows
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
1/9 recap
Big 12:
@West Virginia 57, Baylor 54 - it looks like it'll be Baylor being the one quality win absorbing all the extra losses in the tough conference this year
@Oklahoma 75, Texas Tech 65
@Kansas 83, Iowa St 78
ACC:
@Virginia 68, Syracuse 61
@North Carolina 96, Boston College 66
B1G:
Purdue 70, @Michigan 69 - more important to Michigan than you think. Signature win chances are very few in this league this year, and that was one of them going by the boards
@Indiana 74, Penn St 70
@Nebraska 63, Wisconsin 59 - there's room in the mid-pack of this conference for a new team to randomly appear...NU appears to be taking on that role this year
Big East:
@Marquette 84, Seton Hall 64 - somewhat of a surprise, but we're finally going to really have to take Marquette seriously, for real
@Creighton 85, Butler 74 - doesn't really change either team's outlook
Georgetown 69, @St John's 66 - boy, St John's went from viable bubble team to irrelevant real quick this year. GU at home is a fatal flaw to the resume
SEC:
@Kentucky 74, Texas A&M 73 - A&M is really entering a danger zone where the mass accumulation of losses are going to be a problem. This probably will hold up as a quality win for UK, for a team that kind of really needs it
@Auburn 85, Ole Miss 70
Tennessee 92, @Vanderbilt 84 - road wins are never trivial
@Alabama 76, South Carolina 62
AAC:
@Memphis 96, Tulane 89 - it's that time of year to start paying attention to the NIT bubble
A-10:
Rhode Island 72, @St Louis 65 - 4 bullets down, 14 to dodge for URI
@VCU 78, Duquesne 67
MWC:
Boise St 70, @Fresno St 64 - road wins are never trivial
@San Diego St 85, San Jose St 49
elsewhere:
Buffalo 87, @Akron 65 - if you're curious, Akron is way down this year...Buffalo headed for the 11 line?
@West Virginia 57, Baylor 54 - it looks like it'll be Baylor being the one quality win absorbing all the extra losses in the tough conference this year
@Oklahoma 75, Texas Tech 65
@Kansas 83, Iowa St 78
ACC:
@Virginia 68, Syracuse 61
@North Carolina 96, Boston College 66
B1G:
Purdue 70, @Michigan 69 - more important to Michigan than you think. Signature win chances are very few in this league this year, and that was one of them going by the boards
@Indiana 74, Penn St 70
@Nebraska 63, Wisconsin 59 - there's room in the mid-pack of this conference for a new team to randomly appear...NU appears to be taking on that role this year
Big East:
@Marquette 84, Seton Hall 64 - somewhat of a surprise, but we're finally going to really have to take Marquette seriously, for real
@Creighton 85, Butler 74 - doesn't really change either team's outlook
Georgetown 69, @St John's 66 - boy, St John's went from viable bubble team to irrelevant real quick this year. GU at home is a fatal flaw to the resume
SEC:
@Kentucky 74, Texas A&M 73 - A&M is really entering a danger zone where the mass accumulation of losses are going to be a problem. This probably will hold up as a quality win for UK, for a team that kind of really needs it
@Auburn 85, Ole Miss 70
Tennessee 92, @Vanderbilt 84 - road wins are never trivial
@Alabama 76, South Carolina 62
AAC:
@Memphis 96, Tulane 89 - it's that time of year to start paying attention to the NIT bubble
A-10:
Rhode Island 72, @St Louis 65 - 4 bullets down, 14 to dodge for URI
@VCU 78, Duquesne 67
MWC:
Boise St 70, @Fresno St 64 - road wins are never trivial
@San Diego St 85, San Jose St 49
elsewhere:
Buffalo 87, @Akron 65 - if you're curious, Akron is way down this year...Buffalo headed for the 11 line?
1/8 recap
The Patriot, SWAC, and MEAC played league games. That's it. I'm not even dignifying this schedule with a single listed result.
Monday, January 8, 2018
1/7 recap
ACC:
@Miami 80, Florida St 74 - both teams more or less hold their position in my bracket
B1G:
@Ohio St 80, Michigan St 64 - ok, now OSU might be off the bubble to the good side. Signature wins tend to do that
@Maryland 91, Iowa 73
Pac-12:
Arizona St 80, @Utah 77 - road wins always matter
@Stanford 77, USC 76 - and this is why road wins matter, this is not a good loss to ad to the resume
AAC:
@Wichita St 95, South Florida 57
@Cincinnati 76, SMU 56 - not a bad loss, but quality win chances continue to slide right on by
@UCF 60, Temple 39
MVC:
@Illinois St 72, Missouri St 68 meh
Loyola(Chi) 56, @Northern Iowa 50
CAAWatch: Charleston loses at Towson, and the league feels wide-openish. Bill & Mary now leads at 4-0
@Miami 80, Florida St 74 - both teams more or less hold their position in my bracket
B1G:
@Ohio St 80, Michigan St 64 - ok, now OSU might be off the bubble to the good side. Signature wins tend to do that
@Maryland 91, Iowa 73
Pac-12:
Arizona St 80, @Utah 77 - road wins always matter
@Stanford 77, USC 76 - and this is why road wins matter, this is not a good loss to ad to the resume
AAC:
@Wichita St 95, South Florida 57
@Cincinnati 76, SMU 56 - not a bad loss, but quality win chances continue to slide right on by
@UCF 60, Temple 39
MVC:
@Illinois St 72, Missouri St 68 meh
Loyola(Chi) 56, @Northern Iowa 50
CAAWatch: Charleston loses at Towson, and the league feels wide-openish. Bill & Mary now leads at 4-0
Saturday, January 6, 2018
1/6 recap
Big 12:
@West Virginia 89, Oklahoma 76 - was always going to be a big ask for OU to get it, but they kinda needed this type of win to bolster their argument for the 1 seed. Instead, WVU gets that signature win to their ledger instead
Kansas 88, @TCU 84 - a Group 0 win as I like to call it. It really feels like TCU is going to be one step behind WVU/KU/OU this year, which could lead to some unfriendly geographical assignments. KU kinda needed this to stabilize their seed
@Texas Tech 74, Kansas St 58
@Baylor 69, Texas 60 - don't read too much into a home hold, but Baylor desperately needs every swing game to go their way right now
@Oklahoma St 96, Iowa St 87 (OT)
ACC:
@NC State 96, Duke 85 - you don't need me to know that Duke is starting to pile up marginal losses. Very cumbersome towards getting a 1 seed. Stay tuned
@Virginia 61, North Carolina 49 - zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. This showed in my bracket yesterday...UNC better be careful because they're losing their grip on the Charlotte sub-regional and the East and South regionals in general
@Clemson 74, Louisville 69 (OT) - honestly impressed that Clemson has kept this thing going and are winning their swing games. Louisville is bringing the bubble into play, meanwhile
@Virginia Tech 81, Pittsburgh 67
Notre Dame 51, @Syracuse 49 - road wins are never trivial. The kind of loss that hurts bubble teams, though. I think this just confirms UND is closer to the 4 line than the bubble
@Boston College 77, Wake Forest 71
Big East:
@Villanova 100, Marquette 90
@Providence 81, Xavier 72 - Provi was mostly dead from a bubble perspective....this will help, but they'll need to back it up with much more to get there. Bigger news is Xavier, every loss like this hurts when you're this close to the 1 line
Seton Hall 90, @Butler 87 - that's a quality road win for SHU, which is sneaking up on us I think. Is there enough room at the top for a 3rd protected seed for the Big East? It'll be SHU if there is
Creighton 90, @Georgetown 66
DePaul 91, @St John's 74 - just as fast as St John's became relevant....they became irrelevant. Bye
SEC:
LSU 69, @Texas A&M 68 - not really sure what's going on with A&M here, and now they're kinda really tough to seed properly. This loss is 1 step beyond the line of acceptability. LSU will spend some time hanging around the bubble discussion as a result
@Tennessee 76, Kentucky 65 - a win that should stabilize UT's seed....and one that doesn't help UK. The good news for UK? The SEC is better, and Group 1 wins should be bountiful later on
@Auburn 88, Arkansas 77 - no sin for Arky to lose this game...bigger news is Auburn adding another solid win to the ledger and looking more and more like a tourney team
@Georgia 65, Alabama 46 - seems like Bama is going to be the one team to drop out of this SEC bubble logjam early
Florida 77, @Missouri 75 - UF playing their way back up the seed list, and Mizzou is just another bubble team
@Ole Miss 64, Mississippi St 58
@South Carolina 71, Vanderbilt 60
B1G:
@Purdue 74, Nebraska 62
@Michigan 79, Illinois 69 - at this point, any team behind the top 2 winning any game and holding serve is news. These all matter
Indiana 75, @Minnesota 71 - well, this was dumb to lose by Minnesota
Pac-12:
@Colorado 80, Arizona 77 - wait, Colorado just swept the Arizona schools? This league just keeps getting weirder. These are two very big chips, but they need to back this up with not adding bad losses. As for Zona...well as for everyone in this conference, I just don't know anymore. What a mess
Washington 70, @Washington St 65
UCLA 107, @California 84 - given the mess in this conference, any road win is significant for bubble teams
AAC:
@Memphis 76, Tulsa 67 - alas, Tulsa's conference lead was fledgling
WCC:
Gonzaga 85, @Loyola Marymount 66
@Pacific 67, BYU 66
@St Mary's 70, San Diego 63
A-10:
VCU 80, @LaSalle 74
Rhode Island 81, @George Washington 60
@St Joseph's 85, St Bonaventure 78 - uh oh, A-10
MWC:
Nevada 86, @Air Force 75
@Wyoming 79, Boise St 78 (OT) - and the first slip up in the race for this title. Nevada 1-up on Boise
Utah St 85, @UNLV - and speaking of slip ups, this is a pretty dumb one for a fringe bubble team
elsewhere:
North Dakota St 84, @South Dakota 79 - presumptive Summit favorite loses at home
Drake 75, @Indiana St 72 - Drake leads the #8 conference in America. What a world we live in
Buffalo 83, @Ball St 63 - might've been the toughest game on paper for Buffalo in the MAC, and they get through it. Now a definitive MAC fave
Jacksonville St 64, @Belmont 60 - Belmont chunks one at home, in case you were mentally penciling in Belmont for the OVC
@West Virginia 89, Oklahoma 76 - was always going to be a big ask for OU to get it, but they kinda needed this type of win to bolster their argument for the 1 seed. Instead, WVU gets that signature win to their ledger instead
Kansas 88, @TCU 84 - a Group 0 win as I like to call it. It really feels like TCU is going to be one step behind WVU/KU/OU this year, which could lead to some unfriendly geographical assignments. KU kinda needed this to stabilize their seed
@Texas Tech 74, Kansas St 58
@Baylor 69, Texas 60 - don't read too much into a home hold, but Baylor desperately needs every swing game to go their way right now
@Oklahoma St 96, Iowa St 87 (OT)
ACC:
@NC State 96, Duke 85 - you don't need me to know that Duke is starting to pile up marginal losses. Very cumbersome towards getting a 1 seed. Stay tuned
@Virginia 61, North Carolina 49 - zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. This showed in my bracket yesterday...UNC better be careful because they're losing their grip on the Charlotte sub-regional and the East and South regionals in general
@Clemson 74, Louisville 69 (OT) - honestly impressed that Clemson has kept this thing going and are winning their swing games. Louisville is bringing the bubble into play, meanwhile
@Virginia Tech 81, Pittsburgh 67
Notre Dame 51, @Syracuse 49 - road wins are never trivial. The kind of loss that hurts bubble teams, though. I think this just confirms UND is closer to the 4 line than the bubble
@Boston College 77, Wake Forest 71
Big East:
@Villanova 100, Marquette 90
@Providence 81, Xavier 72 - Provi was mostly dead from a bubble perspective....this will help, but they'll need to back it up with much more to get there. Bigger news is Xavier, every loss like this hurts when you're this close to the 1 line
Seton Hall 90, @Butler 87 - that's a quality road win for SHU, which is sneaking up on us I think. Is there enough room at the top for a 3rd protected seed for the Big East? It'll be SHU if there is
Creighton 90, @Georgetown 66
DePaul 91, @St John's 74 - just as fast as St John's became relevant....they became irrelevant. Bye
SEC:
LSU 69, @Texas A&M 68 - not really sure what's going on with A&M here, and now they're kinda really tough to seed properly. This loss is 1 step beyond the line of acceptability. LSU will spend some time hanging around the bubble discussion as a result
@Tennessee 76, Kentucky 65 - a win that should stabilize UT's seed....and one that doesn't help UK. The good news for UK? The SEC is better, and Group 1 wins should be bountiful later on
@Auburn 88, Arkansas 77 - no sin for Arky to lose this game...bigger news is Auburn adding another solid win to the ledger and looking more and more like a tourney team
@Georgia 65, Alabama 46 - seems like Bama is going to be the one team to drop out of this SEC bubble logjam early
Florida 77, @Missouri 75 - UF playing their way back up the seed list, and Mizzou is just another bubble team
@Ole Miss 64, Mississippi St 58
@South Carolina 71, Vanderbilt 60
B1G:
@Purdue 74, Nebraska 62
@Michigan 79, Illinois 69 - at this point, any team behind the top 2 winning any game and holding serve is news. These all matter
Indiana 75, @Minnesota 71 - well, this was dumb to lose by Minnesota
Pac-12:
@Colorado 80, Arizona 77 - wait, Colorado just swept the Arizona schools? This league just keeps getting weirder. These are two very big chips, but they need to back this up with not adding bad losses. As for Zona...well as for everyone in this conference, I just don't know anymore. What a mess
Washington 70, @Washington St 65
UCLA 107, @California 84 - given the mess in this conference, any road win is significant for bubble teams
AAC:
@Memphis 76, Tulsa 67 - alas, Tulsa's conference lead was fledgling
WCC:
Gonzaga 85, @Loyola Marymount 66
@Pacific 67, BYU 66
@St Mary's 70, San Diego 63
A-10:
VCU 80, @LaSalle 74
Rhode Island 81, @George Washington 60
@St Joseph's 85, St Bonaventure 78 - uh oh, A-10
MWC:
Nevada 86, @Air Force 75
@Wyoming 79, Boise St 78 (OT) - and the first slip up in the race for this title. Nevada 1-up on Boise
Utah St 85, @UNLV - and speaking of slip ups, this is a pretty dumb one for a fringe bubble team
elsewhere:
North Dakota St 84, @South Dakota 79 - presumptive Summit favorite loses at home
Drake 75, @Indiana St 72 - Drake leads the #8 conference in America. What a world we live in
Buffalo 83, @Ball St 63 - might've been the toughest game on paper for Buffalo in the MAC, and they get through it. Now a definitive MAC fave
Jacksonville St 64, @Belmont 60 - Belmont chunks one at home, in case you were mentally penciling in Belmont for the OVC
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)