A full S-Curve is coming overnight, but I'm tinkering with things...
The 1 line: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Oregon/Arizona winner
The 2 line: Duke, North Carolina, Oregon/Arizona loser, Kentucky
I hate you selection committee. You're forcing me to make the move with your comments. You guys are too dumb to think up a smokescreen, so I think you're going to mess up and make the Arizona/Oregon winner a 1 seed in the south.
This is my last full bubble update of the year. I'll chop this list shorter tomorrow as we go:
Next 4 in (I'm rethinking dropping Providence back in this range):
Marquette
Michigan St
Xavier
Kansas St
Last 4 in:
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
USC
Rhode Island
Last 4 out:
Syracuse
Illinois
Illinois St
California
Next 4 out:
Texas-Arlington
Indiana
Georgia
Houston
There's a real legitimate question on what to do with URI if they lose tomorrow.
3 comments:
Things were sure easier on Feb 11th to make a top 16 list and get them almost all right. Now the committee if sending smoke signals telling everyone 6 teams for 4 spots but which teams ? Can Duke really make it to the 1 line after being 16 on the S-Curve a month ago and they went 8-3 since then ? They also have a loss vs RPI 142 NC State at home on the resume. They also finished 5th in the ACC regular season. Duke appeared to be a 3 or 4 seed before the ACC tournament it sure seems strange they are going to get a 1 seed based on 4 games in 4 days but that is what the committee was implying.
I think you have Kansas State too high I think they are barely in or barely out. The non conf SOS is a killer for them I think. I am 50/50 on them making it.
I think it is a real flip of the coin on the bubble for the following teams. 3 of the 5 I think are in and other 2 are out.
Kansas State
USC
Rhode Island if they lose
Illinois State
Syracuse
I would never put Syracuse in my field but who knows what the committee will do. That 2-11 road record and RPI in the mid 80s makes me think they should be out based on past history with committee also Syracuse has a non conf SOS around 200 which no one talks about.
I have been thinking USC was going to be in but now giving 2nd thoughts. No clue on Rhode Island if they lose. Illinois State I thought would be out but usually the committee makes 1 move a year that you scratch your head about (Tulsa last year). I almost always miss 1 team because I always put the mid major in over a major and I am wrong 80% of the time.
Committee said 6 for 4 spots. That likely means Villanova/Kansas/Gonzaga for sure, then some combination of Duke/UNC/Arizona/Oregon for the other 3. With a few contingencies for who won, with the chance UNC backs in. The question is whether Oregon or Arizona was the Pac-12 team they were talking about.
I'm going to do the unthinkable and move Arizona from the 1 line to the 3 line. The more and more I look, the more and more I see the Trier thing helping their seed. No bad losses like everyone else. RPI is there. I'm holding my nose and ordering them Arizona/Duke/UNC/Kentucky/Oregon.
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