Tuesday, March 4, 2014

West Coast conference tournament

This is part 8 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.

The final standings:
Gonzaga 15-3
BYU 13-5
San Francisco 13-5
St Mary's 11-7
Pepperdine 8-10
San Diego 7-11
Portland 7-11
Pacific 6-12
Santa Clara 6-12
Loyola Marymount 12-18

Tournament format:
After a few years with a funky format and double byes...this conference is actually returning to normal.  A simple 10-team tournament this time around.  Las Vegas is hosting this tournament as a neutral site.  First round on March 6, quarterfinals on March 8, then semis and finals on March 10/11 (if you're wondering, the same site is hosting the men's and women's tournaments, and has to take Sunday off for BYU; hence the weird schedule).

The matchups:
7) Portland (15-15) vs. 10) Loyola Marymount (12-18)
8) Pacific (15-14) vs. 9) Santa Clara (13-18)

1) Gonzaga (25-6) vs. 8/9 winner
4) St Mary's (21-10) vs. 5) Pepperdine (15-15)
3) San Francisco (20-10) vs. 6) San Diego (16-15)
2) BYU (21-10) vs. 7/10 winner

The stakes:
Gonzaga figures to be home free for an at-large bid if it needs it, as long as they avoid an early catastrophic loss.  Their resume is not up to typical Gonzaga standards.  They do have a good pocket collection of wins (N-Arkansas, NMSU, @WVU, BYU) but none of them are sure tourney teams.

BYU is the bubble team of record here.  Did you know they have a top 10 non-con SoS?  That's why they're in contention and St Mary's and San Francisco aren't.  @Stanford and N-Texas are signature wins.  4 marginal road losses in WCC play is what holds them back.  Road play could ding them.  Won at Stanford, but lost those 4 games plus Utah, Oregon, on the road.

St Mary's is off the bubble and you could make the argument for San Fran ahead of them in the NIT.  Both are on the NIT bubble.  St Mary's probably has better non-con results though (LaTech, Akron, NDSU, @Boise, compared to Cle St, Vermont, American for San Fran).  I'm guessing St Mary's just makes it and San Fran doesn't, if I have to pick.

Drama in CBI/CIT land, as several teams are around .500 and these events usually starve for west coast teams to fill out the bracket.  Portland gets a gimme game to become eligible, Pepperdine doesn't and will likely lose out on postseason because of their better conference finish.

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