Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Sun Belt conference tournament

This is part 28 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.

The standings:
Georgia St 17-1
Western Kentucky 12-6
Louisiana-Lafayette 11-7
Arkansas St 10-8
Arkansas-Little Rock 9-9
Texas-Arlington 9-9
Louisiana-Monroe 7-11
Troy 6-12
South Alabama 5-13
Texas St 4-14

Tournament format:
New Orleans is your neutral site host.  Only the top 8 qualify for this, so the seasons of South Alabama (11-20) and Texas St (8-23) are done.  Games from March 13-16.

This is a staggered bracket.  Top 2 seeds get a double bye to the semifinals, 3/4 a single bye.  This is likely in response to the fact that this conference tournament always produces ridiculous upsets.

The matchups:
5) Arkansas-Little Rock (14-16) vs. 8) Troy (11-19)
6) Texas-Arlington (14-16) vs. 7) Louisiana-Monroe (10-16)

4) Arkansas St (18-12) vs. 5/8 winner
3) Louisiana-Lafayette (20-11) vs. 6/7 winner

1) Georgia St (24-7)  vs. 4/5/8 winner
2) Western Kentucky (20-11) vs. 3/6/7 winner

The stakes:
Georgia St is probably a 14 seed, maybe 15.  Good RPI in the 70s, no quality wins at all.  Everyone else would be staring at the 15 line.  ULL and WKU would miss the 16 line; ULL won at La Tech and WKU versus Southern Miss. Those two teams are at least probably CBI/CIT teams, and maybe ASU as well.

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