Wednesday, March 5, 2014

S-Curve 3/5

The updates are going to start coming faster and faster now:
1) Syracuse down to the 3 line, until they sort themselves out.
2) Creighton and Iowa St losing open up a spot on the 3 line for....North Carolina?  Sure, why not?  They're actually the one team in this range avoiding bad losses (well, them and Cincy.  You can make an argument I'm shafting Cincy here).
3) Nearer the bubble, we welcome Arizona St and Pitt back on it, and welcome St Joe's to the lockbox in advance of tonight's game, although I reverse the right to change my mind on that later.
4) On the cutline, Georgetown back in, Minnesota off.  G'town has too many signature wins to ignore.  Providence is right there in step with Tennessee.  You could talk me into bumping them up one more spot.  Still plenty left to play before that becomes definitive, though.
5) I expanded the bubble to include NC State and Utah.  Not crazy about either, but signature win chances await that can't be ignored if they get them.

The 1 line:  Florida (28-2), Arizona (27-2), Wichita St (30-0), Kansas (22-7)
The 2 line:  Duke (23-6), Villanova (26-3), Wisconsin (24-5), Michigan (22-7)
The 3 line:  Virginia (25-5), Syracuse (26-4), San Diego St (23-3), North Carolina (23-7)
The 4 line:  Cincinnati (24-5), Michigan St (22-7), Iowa St (22-7), Creighton (23-6)
The 5 line:  Oklahoma (21-8), St Louis (24-4), Memphis (21-7), Louisville (24-5)
The 6 line:  Texas (21-8), UConn (23-6), UCLA (22-7), UMass (22-6)
The 7 line:  Ohio St (22-8), Iowa (19-9), New Mexico (23-5), Kentucky (22-8)
The 8 line:  SMU (23-6), VCU (22-7), George Washington (21-7), Gonzaga (24-6)
The 9 line:  St Joseph's (21-7), Kansas St (20-10), Arizona St (21-9), Oklahoma St (20-10)
The 10 line:  Oregon (21-8), Baylor (18-10), Colorado (20-9), Stanford (18-10)
The 11 line:  Arkansas (20-9), Pittsburgh (22-8), Xavier (19-10), BYU (20-10), California (18-11)
The 12 line:  Georgetown (17-12), Tennessee (17-11), Green Bay (21-5), Louisiana Tech (23-6), Toledo (24-5)
The 13 line:  North Dakota St (20-6), Belmont (22-8), Iona (20-9), Harvard (23-4)
The 14 line:  Delaware (22-9), Boston (22-9), Stephen F Austin (25-2), UC Irvine (18-10)
The 15 line:  North Carolina Central (22-5), Georgia St (21-7), Davidson (18-11), Vermont (19-9)
The 16 line:  Robert Morris (19-12), Weber St (14-10), FGCU (19-11), Utah Valley (16-10), High Point (14-13), Alabama St (13-11)

Bubble in:
Arizona St
Oklahoma St
Oregon
Baylor
Colorado

Next 4 in:
Stanford
Arkansas
Pittsburgh
Xavier

Last 4 in:
BYU
California
Georgetown
Tennessee

Last 4 out:
Providence (20-10)
Minnesota (17-12)
Missouri (20-9)
Dayton (20-9)

Next 4 out:
Florida St (18-11)
St John's (19-11)
Nebraska (17-11)
*Green Bay
Southern Miss (23-5)

Bubble inception:  WE NEED TO GO DEEPER
LSU (17-11)
Clemson (19-10)
West Virginia (16-13)
*Louisiana Tech
Indiana (17-12)
Richmond (18-11)
Utah (17-9)
North Carolina St (18-12)
Marquette (17-13)

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