Sunday, March 9, 2014

Mid-American conference tournament

This is part 17 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.

The standings:
West
Western Michigan 14-4
Toledo 14-4
Eastern Michigan 10-8
Northern Illinois 8-10
Central Michigan 3-15
Ball St 2-16
East
Buffalo 13-5
Akron 12-6
Ohio 11-7
Miami(OH) 8-10
Kent St 7-11
Bowling Green 6-12

Tournament format:
On March 10, the bottom 8 teams play a 1st round game, at the site of the higher seed.  With the 4 losers gone, the remaining 8 teams then convene in Cleveland from March 12-15.

Now, this is where we have a change.  Instead of a simple 8-team elimination bracket...the top two seeds get a double bye into the semifinals.  The 3rd and 4th seeds get a single bye.  This is likely in response to having their legitimately good teams constantly beaten up in the conference tournament.

The matchups:
12) Ball St (5-24) at 5) Ohio (21-10)
11) Central Michigan (10-20) at 6) Eastern Michigan (18-13)
10) Bowling Green (12-19) at 7) Northern Illinois (14-16)
9) Kent St (16-15) at 8) Miami(OH) (12-17)

5/12 winner vs. 8/9 winner
6/11 winner vs. 7/10 winner

4) Akron (20-11) vs. 5/8/9/12 winner
3) Buffalo (19-9) vs. 6/7/10/11 winner

1) Western Michigan (21-9) vs. 4/5/8/9/12 winner
2) Toledo (26-5) vs. 3/6/7/10/11 winner

Got all that?  Nope, I didn't either.

The stakes:
No NCAA stakes beyond the obvious - Toledo is too far off the bubble.  WMU has the NIT autobid, and Toledo will join them there.

Buffalo has the next best record in conference. However, their RPI is hovering around 100 and their signature win is...at Ohio?  Robert Morris or @Drexel?  No NIT for them.

Eastern Michigan is actually the team with the next best resume (beat Green Bay!), and they had the #2 non-con SoS in the country.  They also beat Toledo and WMU at home.  They actually have a legit NIT shot, although I have them on the outside for now.

Ohio's another team on the NIT periphery, and ahead of Buffalo in the pecking order.  Beat Mercer, UNI, @Richmond, among others.

Akron isn't as strong as the record would suggest.  CBI/CIT for them.  Kent St is also mathematically alive for such a bid, but probably won't happen.

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