Sunday, March 2, 2014

Atlantic Sun conference tournament

This is part 2 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.

The final standings:
FGCU 14-4
Mercer 14-4
USC Upstate 11-7
East Tennessee St 10-8
Lipscomb 10-8
North Florida 10-8
Jacksonville 8-10
Northern Kentucky 5-13
Stetson 5-13
Kennesaw St 3-15

Tournament format:
Top 8 teams advance to the tournament.  Northern Kentucky (9-21) is ineligible (transitional D1), and Kennesaw St's season (6-25) is over, being in last place.  Each game of the tournament is hosted by the higher seed.  Quarterfinals are March 4, semifinals are March 6, and the final is March 9.

FGCU has the 1 seed in the conference tournament on the tiebreaker.

The matchups:
8) Stetson (7-23) at 1) FGCU (20-11)
5) Lipscomb (15-14) at 4) East Tennessee St (17-14)
6) North Florida (16-15) at 3) USC Upstate (18-13)
7) Jacksonville (12-17) at 2) Mercer (23-8)

The stakes:
FGCU, not Mercer, won the regular season title via tiebreak and therefore has a NIT bid in pocket.  Mercer would be on the NIT bubble if they don't win this tournament.  It'll be close for them.

As for seeding, I would have Mercer as a 13 seed if they represent the conference.  FGCU is straddling the 15/16 line.  This is not a good resume.  RPI around 150, their only sub-150 win is Mercer at home.  In fact, they're closer to the play-in games than the 15 line, frankly.

Deeper down in the conference, there's another 4 teams above .500 and CIT eligible.  There's a couple new-ish teams to D1 (UNF, USC-Upstate) for whom any kind of postseason would be a breakthrough.  Some, but not all, of these teams will probably get looks from the CBI/CIT.

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