Sunday, March 2, 2014

Horizon League conference tournament

This is part 3 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.

The final standings:
Green Bay 14-2
Cleveland St 12-4
Wright St 10-6
Valparaiso 9-7
Milwaukee 7-9
Oakland 7-9
Youngstown St 6-10
Detroit 6-10
Illinois-Chicago 1-15

Tournament format:
There's a funky tiered format.  Seeds 4-9 play in the first round.  Those winners plus the 3 seed play in the quarterfinals.  This all means the top 2 seeds (Green Bay, Cleveland St) have a bye into the semifinals of this tournament.

The hosting of the tournament is also wacky.  First round matchups are hosted by the higher seed, then Green Bay (top seed) hosts the quarterfinals and semifinals.  The finals are then hosted at the highest remaining seed.

The matchups:
9) Illinois-Chicago (6-24) at 4) Valparaiso (17-14)
8) Detroit (13-18) at 5) Milwaukee (17-13)
7) Youngstown St (15-16) at 6) Oakland (12-19)

In the quarterfinals, the 6/7 winner plays 3 seed Wright St (18-13), and the 4/9 and 5/8 winners play.

In the semifinals, 1 seed Green Bay (24-5) plays the 4/5/8/9 winner, and 2 seed Cleveland St (21-10) plays the 3/6/7 winner.

The stakes:
Green Bay remains on the periphery of the bubble.  They're still alive, but could they absorb another loss and still get an at-large?  Maybe if it's to Cleveland St, who is a top 100 RPI team they've already beaten twice, at least.  Green Bay is at RPI 51, by the way, with a win over Virginia that looks more signature by the day.  They also beat Tulsa on a neutral, which isn't nothing.

Cleveland St's played their way into NIT contention.  They did lose twice to Green Bay.  Wins over Robert Morris and Iona are decent, but maybe not enough.  Still, the RPI and 2nd place finish in a reputable mid-major conference will get them a look.

Multiple teams should get looks from the CBI and CIT.  Wright St and Valpo at over .500 in the conference will most likely get invites.  Milwaukee at 7-9 in conference may or may not.  Youngstown St has an outside chance of being CIT eligible but even if they get there, I doubt they get the call.  Of course, with these teams, the CBI or CIT might not excite anyone.  Without knowing each individual school's preferences, I could see some teams turning down bids.

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