State of the conferences, part 7

State of the Big Sky

The numbers show a bit more wide open battle.  Northern Colorado (4-3) has the one winning record, and did beat Kansas St, but otherwise has a rubbish schedule.  Regular mainstays Montana (2-4) and Weber St (1-5) aren't exactly instilling confidence in me right now.

Further down, Eastern Washington (3-5) is probably next best, followed by a random mish-mash of North Dakota (1-7), Idaho St (1-5), Portland St (3-4), Northern Arizona (2-8), Montana St (3-6), Sacramento St (1-5), and Southern Utah (0-8).

Final prediction:  Just the top 3 with overall .500 records or better.  I expect a tight battle for the NCAA spot with consolation spots for the losers in the CBI/CIT.

State of the Northeast

Bryant (6-6) actually scheduled up a bit to put itself in the profile lead, but no wins of note are really there.  St Francis(NY) (7-5) has the only winning record to date.  Robert Morris (5-8) is a bit down from previous years.

Behind that, expect a lot of ugly records.  Wagner (4-7), Mount St Mary's (3-8), LIU (4-7), Central Connecticut St (3-8), Fairleigh Dickinson (2-9), Sacred Heart (2-12), and St Francis(PA) (2-9).  Good luck to you all.  You'll need it.

Final prediction:  This conference might not have a 2nd postseason team unless Bryant gets upset.  They won't, and the conference won't.

State of the Big South

Boy, this is just ugly.  These computer numbers are ugly, period.    Charleston Southern (2-6), Winthrop (4-4), UNC Asheville (2-7), Coastal Carolina (3-6), Radford (6-4), Gardner Webb (4-7), High Point (2-7), Liberty (3-7), VMI (3-5), Campbell (2-6), Longwood (1-8), Presbyterian (2-9).  That's the conference.  Go ahead and tell me who's good.  No one is dominant.  Can any team get to 13-3 or even 12-4 in conference?  Can anyone get to .500 overall?  The answer might be no.

Final prediction:  One postseason team, whoever the hell it is.

State of the Southland

Stephen F Austin (8-2) is up to its old tricks.  Good record against a bad, bad schedule.  Don't act like they're anything special.  Oral Roberts (4-6) is where it's at.  A sterling schedule and a couple non-trivial results (@Tulsa, N-Bowling Green).

In the next wave (predicted above .500 teams), we have Northwestern St (2-7) and Sam Houston St (5-4).  Below that, the abyss.  New Orleans (1-4), Southeastern Louisiana (3-6), McNeese St (0-9), Houston Baptist (2-9), Nicholls St (2-6), TAMU-CC (2-8), Lamar (1-10), Abilene Christian (0-7), Central Arkansas (1-7), and Incarnate Word (0-1) will do little other than hurt the conference profile.

Final prediction:  Oral Roberts to the NCAAs, and hey, a couple will make the CBI/CIT too.  Bully up.

State of the SoCon

Elon (5-5) scheduled up.  Unfortunately for them, they lost too many tossup games.  They didn't get any quality wins in the process either.  However, they may be the only team that can avoid the PIG in this conference.

Davidson (3-8) just lost too much, plain and simple, although they scheduled up too.  Everyone else ranges from bad to worse, with Western Carolina (4-8), Wofford (2-7), Georgia Southern (3-7), UNC Greensboro (3-7), Samford (2-8), Appalachian St (0-8), Furman (3-5), Chattanooga (1-8), and The Citadel (1-8).

Final prediction:  Elon is this conference's only hope, Davidson notwithstanding.

State of the A-East

The top 3 might separate, between Stony Brook (8-4), Albany (6-6), and Vermont (3-8), but the profiles are predictably barren.  Pay no attention to Hartford (5-8), UMBC (2-9), New Hampshire (1-9), Binghamton (2-9), Maine (0-9), and UMass-Lowell (0-11).

Final prediction:  One postseason team.

State of the MEAC

North Carolina Central (5-3) is actually building up a non-trivial resume (@NC State, @ODU).  Could they avoid the PIG?  Perhaps.  Norfolk St (5-5) might have a winning record too.

Now, the unwashed masses.  All are not significant.  Hampton (5-7), Coppin St (3-7), Morgan St (3-7), Florida A&M (2-10), North Carolina A&T (2-9), Savannah St (0-10), Delaware St (0-9), South Carolina St (1-8), UMES (1-6), Howard (1-12), and Bethune Cookman (0-13).

Final prediction:  NCCU avoids the PIG!

State of the SWAC

Hey, they're not awful!  14-71 against D1!  This is progress!

Jackson St (4-7) has 4 of the wins, which include @Evansville and Louisiana-Lafayette.  Hey now!  Texas Southern (3-7) has another 3, including @Temple.

Alabama St (3-5) has 3, but none are notable.  Southern (1-9), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (0-9), Alabama A&M (1-6), Prairie View A&M (1-9), Mississippi Valley St (1-7), Alcorn St (0-7), and Grambling (0-5) exhibit the terribleness you're more used to with the SWAC.

Final prediction:  The SWAC never has, nor ever will, matter.