Conference hierarchy, revisited:

Let's revisit last month's post about conference hierarchy for this year.  Do we need to update some of the rankings?  I think so.

We'll use rpiforecast.com as a guide.  We'll see what they project for the conferences and how it differs from my rankings.  We'll then decide who's right.

Tier 1:  Royalty
1) Big 10
2) ACC

B1G appears well on its way to being the #1 conference.  However, the ACC has struggled from mid-table on down.  They'll produce top teams, but the bottom is softening enough.  Still, I think they're #2 for the year, but the gap is widening.  ACC's current projection is #5 in CRPI.  I think that will correct itself in time.

Tier 2:  Power Conferences
3) Pac-12
4) SEC
5) Big East
6) Big 12

After what we've seen, I don't think anyone would argue these are the next 4 best conferences.  However, we need to discuss the order a bit.

It seems clear to me that the Big 12 has grabbed the mantle and is the best now.  A large part of that is Baylor and Iowa St stepping up and providing legitimate depth to the conference.  I was expecting a 2-horse race.  They're currently projected at #2 CRPI, and will probably be 3rd by the time the season is done.

The SEC is clearly the worst of the 4 now.  I was expecting the teams mid-table (Bama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, et al) to leap forward.  Instead, for the most part, they are what they were.  Big East is now ahead of them, neck-and-neck with the Pac-12 in my eyes.  Still, these 4 are in the same general group.

Tier 3:  Purgatory, Part 1
7) AAC

Nailed it.  Some chance they leap the SEC or get leapt by the A-10, but this is about right for them.

Tier 4:  Purgatory, Part 2
8) A-10
9) MWC

According to rpiforecast, MWC has not only lost ground to the A-10, but to the WCC.  Hmm.  I'm a bit surprised, and still think the MWC will show to be better over time.

Tier 5:  Don't call us mid-major
10) MVC
11) WCC

The WCC has been a pleasant surprise.  BYU and St Mary's had good starts, and the supporting cast is not hurting the conference as badly so far this year.  At the least, they've zoomed by the MVC, who remains a solid 11th.

To me, I expected an 12-conference breakaway in terms of relevancy, with CUSA barely being a part of it.  Now, I think it is an 11-conference breakaway, with a couple at-large candidates to sort through in CUSA still.  But CUSA has lost the draft, so to speak.

Tier 6:  Purgatory, Part 3
12) CUSA

They're currently projected 13th, right behind the MAC, but for the most part, I've got them pegged right.  They could have 4 or 5 RPI Top 100 teams, but the conference is too bloated with too many marginal teams.

Tier 7:  Call us mid major
13) MAC
14) MAAC
15) OVC
16) Horizon

Well, we pretty much nailed the MAC and Horizon.  MAC is better, and could jump CUSA, but those 2 conferences are placed right.

However, the MAAC is currently #25 and projected #20, and the OVC is #26 and #23.  What?

I expected the depth of both conferences to be good, but it distinctly is not happening.  The MAAC is 26-47 this year against D1.  That's not good, and nowhere near what I expected.  No one is coming close to developing an at-large profile, or even an NIT profile.  And the SoSs aren't as good as I thought they'd be.  Same story in the OVC, with one exception:  Belmont could emerge as a player on the bubble this year.

Tier 8:  Why aren't you better?
17) Sun Belt
18) CAA

Looks like the CAA listened to me!  They are filling the gap above that was left by the MAAC and OVC.  Drexel made noise.  They're playing better schedules, and there's less dead weight.  I highly doubt the CAA could support a Drexel at-large bid, but they're better, and on the way back.  The Sun Belt is pegged about right.

Tier 9:  Mid-lower majors
19) Ivy
20) Summit
21) Patriot
22) Big Sky
23) SoCon
24) A-Sun
25) Big West
26) NEC

Ivy is currently projected at #15.  Given the slippage ahead of them, that's reasonable.  Other than that, I'm not too far off on any single conference except the SoCon.  They've fallen a level.  All the other conferences are pretty close to each other in the projections, so I'm not sweating the order a bit.

Tier 10:  True low majors
27) A-East
28) Big South
29) MEAC
30) Southland

According to the current numbers and projections, the Big South has played its way out of this group and to the above one.  I'm not sure how, to be quite honest.  I expect correction.

As mentioned above, the SoCon is probably in this group now.  And even though the MEAC has a couple good pieces, I was optimistic putting them ahead of the Southland.

Tier 11:  Barely D-1
31) WAC
32) SWAC

The WAC is currently #20, projected #22.  What?!  Did I just miss one?

Partially.  New Mexico St is clearly supporting this conference.  Without them, the numbers say they're in the bottom 5, but having a quality team is worth that many spots, yes.  And NMSU is playing a good non-con schedule which may save them from the 16 line.  They won't have any quality wins, but none of the 16 seeds usually do.  And they scheduled up.  Looks like my initial prediction was wrong.  Still, I expect the WAC to at least be in Tier 10 before the end of the year.