State of the conferences, part 6

State of the MVC

The rest of the conference is letting down Wichita St.  That's the story, plain and simple.

Wichita St (11-0) assembled a top 50 non-con SoS, which is very important for obvious reasons.  @St Louis, N-BYU, and Tennesee aren't signature, but good enough.  Unfortunately, I think 3 is about the peak because of the lack of truly high-end wins they'll need to compete with the big boys.  On the plus side, I do think they can absorb a couple of "bad" losses and not really get harmed in the seeding.  The selection committee is more forgiving to teams with shiny records these days.

Any hopes for the rest of the conference?  Indiana St (6-3) has a surprisingly bad non-con SoS.  The losses range from perfectly fine (@St Louis) to marginal (@Belmont) to bad (N-Tulsa).  The win @Notre Dame gives them life, though.  Split with Wichita and we'll talk.  Missouri St (8-2) is the other team in range, with losses N-Virginia and @Louisville.  Problem is, the signature win is Oral Roberts.  Again, split with Wichita and we'll talk.

Drake (7-3) has busted out with a good record and reasonable schedule, and reasonable losses (New Mexico St at home notwithstanding).  Again, no wins to lean on, though.  Northern Iowa (4-6) has a good schedule but whiffed against it.  And the losses @Milwaukee and @George Mason accentuate the point.  The home win over VCU is merely pyrrhic at this point.

Illinois St (6-5) has a fighting chance at .500 and did beat Dayton and Northwestern at home.  So they're capable, but only of ruining other seasons.  Evansville (4-6) did at least beat Mercer but otherwise whiffed their chances too.  Southern Illinois (3-8), Bradley (5-7), and Loyola-Chicago (4-7) all have the combination of bad schedules and a lack of quality wins that will actively hurt the conference.

Final predictions:  Wichita...4 seed.  Indiana St NIT, the next 3 to the CBI/CIT.

State of the MAC

A bit of a rebound year in the computers for them.  Can it last?

Toledo (10-0) is the surprise undefeated team, and a non-con SoS only around 200 (higher than you'd think).  There is not a single top 100 win here, though, which means the margin for error remains small.  House money chance at Kansas is coming.  Impossible to read situation until they get into conference play to play similar opponents.

Ohio (7-3) is a semi-notable team.  One bummer loss (@Oakland) cancel out a pocket collection of wins (UNI, Evansville, Mercer, @Richmond).  At-large hopes aren't dead.  Akron (6-3) isn't dead either since the losses are fine (@MTSU, @St Mary's, N-Iowa St), but they needed a better win than Oral Roberts.  Close to dead.

Two other reasonable NIT hopes lurk.  Eastern Michigan (5-3) has a top 10 SoS but I don't expect it to hold, and with no great wins, it won't.  Kent St (8-2) has a more marginal schedule, but likewise no win to point to.

Rapid fire through the bottom 7 of the conference.  Bowling Green (5-5) and Western Michigan (6-5) in the next tier with typical average MAC profiles.  Buffalo (4-4) going 0-3 vs. the MAAC has set them back.  Miami(OH) (3-5) at least saved their losses for the road games.  Northern Illinois (4-5), Ball St (1-7), and Central Michigan (5-5) are bottom feeder teams devoid of profile value.

Final prediction:  I'll trust Toledo to win the conference for now.  Ohio has enough to get an at-large to the NIT.  However, despite the bounceback in the conference, can they get another NIT team to at least turn the progress into results?  It's close, but I'll say no.  Akron, Kent St, and Eastern Michigan to other postseason tourneys.

State of the Ivies

Everyone expected Harvard to at least be in the at-large discussion.  Is Princeton trying to crash the party?

Harvard (9-1) won in Alaska, but Denver/Green Bay/TCU have only a littl evalue.  Lost at Colorado.  Those represented their quality win chances so far.  They've got a put-up-or-shut-up game at UConn imminent.  Without it, they might have to win the Ivy to get in.

However, say, winning one of three against Princeton (9-2) will let them at least be within shouting range of the bubble, thanks to Princeton's rise.  The N-Portland loss is a bit of a buzzkill, but N-Pacific, @Bucknell, and @Penn St wins at least give it a fighting shot.  However, losing the Ivy probably means absorbing a fatal RPI blow.

If there is a 3rd postseason team, it might be Columbia (7-5), as they have the best chance of reaching .500, although the profile is barren.  The rest of the Ivy is back in the pack.  Yale (5-6), Brown (6-4), and Dartmouth (5-4) at least padded their barren profiles with empty calorie wins.  Penn (2-7) and especially Cornell (0-11) are in more dire straits.

Final prediction:  Is there room for a 2nd Ivy team (probably Princeton) in the NIT?  I'll say yes.

State of the CUSA

A bit of a rebound year?  They're individually making a couple of waves, at least, but the bottom of the conference is terribad again.

I expect a three-headed battle heading into conference play.  Southern Miss (9-2) did win at North Dakota St, but the losses at Louisville (fine) and Western Kentucky (not fine) weigh it down.  The computer numbers here are worse than they look.  Louisiana Tech (9-3) doesn't have a bad loss weighing it down (depending on how you feel about Louisiana-Lafayette).  However, with no win, they'll need a dominant CUSA season to be an at-large factor.  Charlotte (8-3), however, got the scalps of the CUSA season (N-Kansas St, N-Michigan, but the rest of the profile didn't cooperate.  Losses to Davidson and @Charleston are very damaging in retrospect.  Name value doesn't sync up with computer value.  So, this leads to a very conflicted situation.  I still think they're an at-large threat despite the computer profile.

Middle Tennessee (6-4) is a team probably out of range.  Did play some good opponents, but just got one scalp versus Akron.  UAB (8-3) got the obvious scalp versus UNC, but couldn't back it up unless you want to count N-Temple (and you might).  If they could've just split N-New Mexico and @LSU.  These two do, at least, have NIT hopes and help form a solid top third of the conference.

UTEP (6-5) did beat Tennessee on a neutral and East Carolina (6-3) has a good W-L record, but each lack any profile heft to be real threats.  Tulsa (4-8) is probably better than the record indicates, as they scheduled up and took several body blows.

The value of the conference falls off a cliff after this, probably.  Marshall (3-7) has their peak now behind them.  Florida International (6-4) is an empty profile.  Old Dominion (5-7) has at least reaches respectability, for now.  Rice (3-6), Tulane (6-6), and North Texas (5-5) have very unremarkable profiles.  Florida Atlantic (2-10) and Texas-San Antonio (2-7) just aren't doing anything for anyone.

Final predictions:  Charlotte wins the 3-way tug to the NCAAs.  Let's send the other two to the NIT, at least.  There will be CBI/CIT teams.  MTSU and UAB for sure, let's say UTEP too.

State of the Colonial

They're back to being respectable!  A bit of a rebound, led by a fringe at-large candidate.

Drexel (8-3) has good losses (@UCLA, N-Arizona, and I'm calling @St Joseph's acceptable).  However, those supposed good wins are now between rubbish (@Rutgers) and marginal (N-Alabama and N-Elon).  They've got @Southern Miss coming up, so faint at-large hopes remain.

Delaware (6-6) has respectable computer numbers as a base, but no wins to back it up.  Towson (6-6) has the record with a worse SoS and much worse losses.  But between them, I expect the 2nd and 3rd conference spots to be filled.

Behind them will probably be a dogfight.  Northeastern (3-9) did schedule up, so they're better than the record.  They're probably 4th.  There's a bit of a mess behind them.  William & Mary (5-4), UNC Wilmington (4-7), James Madison (4-9), Charleston (4-7), and Hofstra (3-7) are all losing teams with varying degrees of failures.  Charleston in particular is a bit shocking.  UNCW might have the leg up with a decent SoS so far.

Final predictions:  Drexel runs away with the conference.  Delaware and Towson to the CBI/CIT.

State of the Horizon

The conference is taking another hit this year.

Green Bay (6-3) has ascended to the top, with a home win over Virginia in its pocket for seeding purposes.  They're a head ahead of the rest of the league.

Preseason favorites such as Cleveland St (5-6), Valparaiso (5-6), and Wright St (5-7) have disappointed.  CSU has turned a decent schedule into no wins of note.  Valpo did the same with a worse schedule.  WSU did the same with a really bad schedule.  Milwaukee (9-4) played a bad schedule, so it's an artificial record.  No wins to lean on.

The bottom of the conference is lean.  Oakland (3-10) played a monster schedule with predicable results.  Youngstown St (5-6), Detroit (4-8), and UIC (3-8) are headed to the basement with no remarkable profile qualities.

Final predictions:  Green Bay is the class of the league.  We'll send 2 of the other 4 contenders to the CBI/CIT.  I don't know which ones, though.  Don't ask me to predict.