State of the SEC
They're getting better, but they're not all the way
back. The news is that the conference
may actually cost Kentucky and Florida seeds they may deserve.
Kentucky (9-3) has a very good non-con SoS, and figure to have
a strong computer profile. Losses to
N-Michigan St, @North Carolina, and N-Baylor are reasonable. The issue is that the signature wins are
N-Providence, Belmont, and Boise St.
Their 2 games with Florida assume a much greater importance (along with Louisville). In order to be a 1 seed, they probably have
to get 2, and preferably 3. The SEC
won't offer up enough quality elsewhere to mask other faults.
Florida (9-2) might actually be in better shape, also the
SoS isn't as good because of a couple of anchors that Kentucky avoided and
Florida took on. Losses are expected
(@UConn, @Wisky). Wins over Kansas,
Florida St, and N-Memphis provide solid support. Winning the SEC (and splitting with Kentucky)
will result in a better seed than UK.
Probably a 2 or 3 seed in the making.
Missouri (10-1) is probably next, but with a non-con SoS
hovering around 150, their 2 games against UK/UF assume more importance. Loss to Illinois balanced with win over
UCLA. They would be well advised to keep
their head clear of the morass below.
It gets ugly quick in the SEC. Let's go to LSU (8-2) against an actually
decent schedule. Losses @UMass and
N-Memphis aren't really balanced out by the wins (N-Butler is the best), but
that's OK. As I'm about to write,
there's going to be a big bubble mess in the SEC. Staying ahead of it is the key. And as is the case for all of them, getting a
high-end win is also key.
Arkansas (9-2) has a marginal SoS hovering around 200 for
the non-con. They did beat SMU and
Minnesota, and neither loss (N-Cal, N-Gonzaga) is bad, so there's some hope
here. See the LSU comment. Tennessee (7-4) has a better SoS but it came
with additional predictable losses (and two in N-UTEP and NC State that are
more borderline). The N-Xavier win keep
them in the midpack heading into conference play. Ole Miss (8-3) has a not-as-bad-as-you-think
loss to Mercer, but no wins to lean on when push comes to shove. They're in this group too.
Alabama (4-6) actually has a very strong SoS. Losses to N-Oklahoma, N-Duke, and Wichita St
are fine. N-Drexel, @USF, and Xavier
aren't bad losses, per se, but they are when you whiffed on every chance at a
decent win.
There's 5 teams I'm putting in the no hope column. Texas A&M (8-3) has a lot of empty
calories in its profile. Nothing even
resembling a quality win. South Carolina
(3-6) did play a good schedule and beat St Mary's, but at some point, you have
to win games. Georgia (6-4) racked up
meh losses against a meh schedule. See
A&M comment. Mississippi St (9-3)
has played one of the worst schedules so far. More empty calories. Auburn (6-3) has done the same. The SoS down here for these guys, minus South
Carolina, really hurts the SEC.
State of the Big East
The question heading in was what kind of power conference
this would be. The answer is both good
and bad. The lack of a high-end team
will cause perception problems, but with 8 Top 100 RPI teams, the depth will
support 4 or 5 NCAA teams, easily.
Villanova (11-0) is now the favorite, undefeated against a
solid non-con SoS hovering around 35.
Winning the Battle 4 Atlantis will do a profile wonders. N-Kansas and N-Iowa will be very good wins to
hang on to, and they've pretty much avoided the RPI bombs in the non-con
schedule. They will be a computer
profile monster. How far would a Big
East conference title go? Very, very
far. Their big advantage is that they
have the signature wins already in hand just in case.
Creighton (9-2) has probably defaulted to second favorite in
the conference. The non-con SoS (175)
will be an issue, as the computer numbers might not catch up to their
presumptive other rankings. The loss to
George Washington actually looks reasonable now. However, the quality wins are...N-Arizona St
and California? Those are enough to make
the NCAAs with expected conference play, but to get a real high seed? That is doubtful.
Georgetown (7-3) has played a very good schedule, and with
wins of N-Kansas St and N-VCU, they have more upside than most in the
conference. The loss of N-Northeastern
looks like an albatross for them right now, but enough quality wins in
conference play will minimize that effect.
Losses to @Kansas and N-Oregon won't hurt as long as they win games
against top competition in the conference.
Behind these 3 will be the bubble, and it'll be crowded to
start. Xavier (9-3) has leapt forward in
a supposed down year, with reasonable wins over Tennessee and
N-Cincinnati. The 3 losses in Atlantis
(Iowa, Tennessee, USC) are the killers right now, as they've only played and
won one road game (Alabama) in addition to those 3 neutral site games. They'll need to show competence on the road
in conference play. If they do, the
computer numbers should be good enough to support their candidacy.
Butler (8-2) is in a dicey situation. The losses (N-Oklahoma St, N-LSU) are fine
enough, but there no quality wins behind Princeton. They have work to do in conference play. St John's (8-3) is in a similar situation to
Butler (losses to Wisky and Syracuse, best win over Bucknell), but the kicker
here is a marginal loss of N-Penn St as well.
Providence (10-2) has SoS issues to battle. Again, lack of quality wins (N-LaSalle?)
bracketed by reasonable losses (N-Maryland, N-Kentucky).
Marquette (7-5) is clearly the disappointment of the
league. The RPI, SoS, the computer
numbers are very marginal right now (although they'll get better during
conference play). The losses are all
actually excusable in a vacuum (Ohio St, N-SDSU, @Wisky, N-New Mexico, @Arizona
St), but there's too many considering the only win with any nutritional value
is N-George Washington. There will be
enough opportunities in conference play to erase these sins, but the margin of
error is smaller than most.
The conference goes 8 deep with NCAA contenders, leaving
just 2 to form the meaty underbelly.
Seton Hall (8-4) has a bad SoS with bad losses (Fairleigh Dickinson, St
Peter's). DePaul (7-5) has no good wins
and took too many body blows (to be fair, @Illinois St is the only thing
approaching a bad loss status). These 2
will take it on the chin in conference play, though.
Final prediction:
Villanova, Creighton, and Georgetown will be fine. The real question is the very large bubble in
the 4-8 positions in the conference. I
think there's enough wins to go around for 2 to get in (let's say Xavier and
Marquette for now). Let's put St John's
and Providence in the NIT, and Butler will be the odd man out in the CBI.
State of the AAC
Can the conference support the 1-seed candidacy of
Louisville? The answer is leaning
no. It'll probably depend more on the
failures of other conferences than the success of this one.
Louisville (11-1) has a surprisingly low SoS so far
(although Kentucky will correct that).
The loss (N-UNC) is fine, but would you believe the best win so far is
probably Missouri St or Southern Miss? Not
good, especially with the AAC's strength.
This is why @Kentucky is so important.
They might have to finish with just 3 losses overall to have a realistic
chance at the 1 seed. Unless the eye
test factors in or something.
Memphis (8-2) got an important split with Oklahoma St. The loss of N-Florida hurts, but not
much. Right now they show a very strong
SoS, but I expect it to crash a bit.
They're really in a similar situation to their CUSA days. They've shown they can find a 1 seed out of
that situation...or an 8. Expect wild
swings in projections here.
UConn (10-1) has a more average schedule. N-Indiana, N-Maryland, and @Washington are
wins that aren't holding water like they hoped they would. The loss to Stanford stings a bit because of
it. Of course, the signature win over
Florida is the lynchpin. That's the best win in the conference and gives them
more margin for error. I expect a 3-way
race for protected seeding here.
The bubble quickly approaches. Cincinnati (10-2) would figure to be above it
most years, but with an average SoS, maybe not.
Quality win over N-Pitt bracketed by losses @New Mexico and
N-Xavier. They should be fine, but go
get 2 wins against the top 3 just to be sure.
SMU (10-2) is in a more precarious position. Worse computer numbers, worse losses
(N-Virginia and @Arkansas), and no wins to really lean on. This is a team that definitely needs 2 wins
against the top 3.
The bottom half of the conference, I don't have as serious
NCAA threats, or even postseason threats.
Temple (5-5) is notable by name only.
Bad losses and just the win over St Joseph's to lean on. Central Florida (6-3) has no wins and a bad
loss @FAU. South Florida (8-4) has an
abysmal SoS and several marginal losses.
Houston (8-5), owner of the 2nd easiest schedule in the country, which
says everything you need to know here.
Rutgers (5-7) hasn't even played a tough schedule, so discard them.
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