State of the Pac 12
The depth of the Pac 12 is much better than in previous
years, and should also be able to support the candidacy of a top 1 overall
seed.
That team is Arizona (13-0), who have a good but not great
SoS that includes N-Duke, @Michigan, @San Diego St. The big deal for them is that the Pac 12
should contain enough quality win chances to help them maintain a 1 seed, and
maybe the best of the 1 seeds.
Oregon (11-0) has also navigated the non-con without a loss,
with a reasonable collection of wins (N-Georgetown, BYU, N-Illinois). The two games against Arizona will be
key. A split will bring them a high-end
win they need for a top 2 or 3 seed.
Without it, can they make it all the way up there, seeding-wise? It could be dicey.
Colorado (10-2) has made a leap forward against a schedule
that the computers love (top 20).
Further, they have the high-end win they need (Kansas) for a nice
seed. The two losses are both on neutral
courts to Baylor and Oklahoma St (which could hurt them for protected seeding
purposes). They kind of need to hope
they're not near Big 12 teams on the S-Curve.
Awkward situation. The computer
profile is helped with sneaky-good profile wins over Harvard, Elon, et al. The ceiling is very high for Colorado, and
the floor is pretty low, too.
UCLA (10-2) has fallen to 4th banana in the conference, but
a good seed is still easily attainable for them. The big issue here is quality wins (which
right now are...Drexel? UC Santa
Barbara?). @Missouri and N-Duke are fine
losses, but were their only signature win chances. Conference play means more to them than any
other Pac 12 team. They only get Arizona
once. Going just 1-4 against the top 3
would be harmful. 2-3 would be
fine. Pretty straightforward situation,
I think.
Behind the strong top 4 will probably be the bubble. Arizona St (10-2) lead this brigade. Their non-con SoS is hovering around 250 and
will be a hindrance, but conference play will have some quality win
chances. Those wins over @UNLV and Marquette
are quickly evaporating into thin air.
Kind of a bad break, really.
Meanwhile, Stanford (8-3) has reasonable computer numbers and a road win
over UConn in its pocket. And its losses
are reasonable (BYU, N-Michigan, N-Pittsburgh).
Conference play will make or break them.
California (8-4) does have a win of N-Arkansas and all 4 losses were
road/neutral, but they'll need to make hay, moreso than Stanford or Arizona St.
The bottom 5 of the league figures to be the cutoff of
at-large contention. Utah (9-1) has a
shiny record against a very soft schedule.
They do have the one win over BYU, but the others do more harm than
good. If they beat up on the middle of
the conference (Stanford, Cal, Arizona St), then we can re-evaluate. USC (7-4) is another team that is probably
out of it, but not quite. They have wins
@Dayton and N-Xavier, and the losses are road/neutral varieties against teams
like Wake Forest and Long Beach St. Make
noise in conference play and we'll reevaluate.
The other 3 are probably out of it. Oregon St (7-3) have a poor SoS surrounded by
one reasonable win (@Maryland) and a bad home loss to Coppin St. Washington St (5-5) would have to count on
N-Purdue as its best win, with a couple marginal losses. And Washington (6-5) may be the
disappointment of the league. Too many
losses against a schedule with not enough road/neutral games.
State of the ACC
People expected this to be the best league. However, the middle of the conference has let
the top teams down. Duke, Syracuse, and
the rest at the top aren't going to get the support they were hoping for. They can still get 1 seeds out of this
conference, but just 1, and it'll be hard work.
Syracuse (11-0) is the undefeated team, and has posted a
reasonable SoS to date (64), which should lead to a shiny RPI/SoS in
March. The wins are reasonable (Indiana,
@St John's, N-Cal, N-Minnesota) but lack the high-endness needed for a top
seed. Obviously, though, ACC play will
supply them with what they need.
Duke (9-2) has their usual shiny record and SoS. They'll be computer monsters again. What does work against them is head-to-head
losses of N-Kansas and N-Arizona, which will hurt in 1-seed conversations. With N-UCLA and Michigan in their pocket,
they'll need more quality wins to get that 1 seed. ACC title is likely required for that.
Someone please tell me what to do with North Carolina
(8-3). Shiny computer numbers. A great collection of high-end wins
(N-Louisville, @Michigan St, Kentucky).
Marginal losses (@UAB, Belmont, Texas) that aren't awful, but 1 seeds
don't have these games on their profile.
The committee would ignore them if there were just one or two. But three?
With the possibility of more? I
have no idea how to seed this team, because the high end wins are so high. What's more important for them is holding
serve against inferior teams. 1-2
against Syracuse/Duke is more than enough in conference play. Just beat all the bottom teams.
Florida St (8-3) has made a little leap forward to join the
top 3 in feeling comfortable about at-large chances. N-VCU and N-UMass will carry value. Losses to N-Michigan, @Florida, and
@Minnesota are dismissable, probably.
FSU's big issue is that they get the top 3 each just once. Go 0-3 and you can still survive, as long as
you beat enough of the middle class of the league.
Pittsburgh (11-1) has once again built a very marginal
non-con SoS (around 230). This has led
to one reasonable loss (N-Cincy), a reasonable win (N-Stanford), and a lot of
profile dead weight that will be insignificant based on their ACC data
points. Conference play will almost
entirely determine their fate, although barring a complete collapse, they'll
probably be fine.
Virginia (9-3) is the other team that can probably feel OK
about their chances. Good computer
numbers. They do have a marginal loss
(@Green Bay) and their best wins are N-Missouri St and N-SMU, though. They need to tread carefully in conference
play. This is another team with just 3
shots against the top 3. Win enough
against the middle class and they'll be fine though.
Behind the top 6 is where I put the bubble, and it's short
and brutish. Notre Dame (8-4) is a
disappointment, although the SoS is improved compared to recent years. The losses to Indiana St and N-North Dakota
St aren't nearly as bad as you think. The
issue is high-end wins. N-Indiana is
one, and...that's it. I actually think
they could be fine if they avoid disaster.
Clemson (8-3) has a soft schedule and a lack of high-end
wins, which is becoming a theme in these write-ups. @Auburn is not the kind of loss you can
absorb when the best win is N-Temple.
North Carolina St (9-2) has reasonable computer numbers for now, but the
loss to NC Central can't be erased when the only win of note is
@Tennessee. Maryland (7-5) has a dicey
home loss to Oregon St with a best win of N-Northern Iowa. Not going to work. However, all 3 will at least have a couple
chances for signature wins in this conference.
The bottom 5 is where I put the postseason cutoff
point. Wake Forest (10-2) has a bad SoS
with Richmond being the high-end win.
Pass. Miami (7-5) actually has
multiple questionable losses and the schedule wasn't good enough, despite the
N-Arizona St win. Virginia Tech (7-4)
has no quality win anywhere besides Miami, and whiffed their big chances. Georgia Tech (8-4) did at least beat
Illinois, but there's too many losses in toss-up games. And Boston College (3-8) is downright
horrible (there's more reasonable losses than you'd think in here, but still).
No comments:
Post a Comment