Monday, December 2, 2013

12/2 bracket analysis

Thoughts:
1) There's some procedural bumps, as you'd expect.  Once again, the Spokane region is causing a lot of teams to travel cross-country.  Just no way to avoid it.  Also logistical issues with the PIGs.  Again.
2) General thoughts about some of the teams that came out of the bracket:  LSU, LaSalle, Maryland, Indiana St, Ole Miss, Boise St, UNLV were some of the at-large casualties.  Most of them didn't do much wrong (although ISU and UNLV did).  Some I just ran out of room, so don't cry foul if you're, say, a Boise St fan.  MVC down to 1 bid, although it's a very healthy seed for Wichita now.
3) General thoughts about some of the teams that moved in:  Charlotte in place of Southern Miss as the CUSA representative.  While I have CUSA as a 1-bid league, with La Tech and S. Miss around, I give it a healthy chance at 2 bids.  Providence and Illinois sneak in, but I can easily go the other way there.  Dayton rockets up.  As does Florida St.
4) Which teams rocketed up my board?  UMass is the first big winner, jumping to the 5-line as my new projected A-10 champion.  Iowa St is up to the 4 line, as I now think the Big 12 could be a 3-team breakaway.  BYU moved up to the 7 line and St Mary's to the 9 - think the WCC could be a strong 3 bids this year.
5) The Big East takes a bit of a hit.  Their seeds are 3, 7, 8, 8, and 12.  I expect it to be much better by March, but for now, there's teams I want to move ahead of the three preseason favorites.  Villanova gets the token big bump.
6) On the top line, I wanted to go all undefeateds, but I expect too much out of Kansas and Kentucky, and it would've thrown the bracket out of whack.  Duke is down to a 3 seed for now, which can easily rectify itself by March, but for now, it's where they belong.  Wisconsin is the big winner, going to the 2 line.  3 B1G teams in the top 8.  There'll be room for them.
7) It's early, but the MWC's power numbers are down.  They're down to 3 teams in the bracket, with a play-in game participant, a 6, and a 10.  Not great.
8) The CAA has bounced back a bit, and has their conference champ back to the 12 line (Drexel). 
9) Read little into the 13-16 lines.  So tough to project champions when so many are absorbing losses.

MIDWEST
@Milwaukee
1) Michigan St (7-0) vs. 16) Stony Brook (4-3)/NC Central (3-1)
8) Creighton (5-1) vs. 9) St Louis (6-2)
@San Diego
4) UCLA (7-0) vs. 13) UCSB (2-2)
5) Memphis (5-1) vs. 12) Missouri (7-0)
@San Antonio
3) Wichita St (7-0) vs. 14) Boston (5-2)
6) North Carolina (4-2) vs. 11) Arizona St (7-2)
@Raleigh
2) Louisville (6-1) vs. 15) La-Lafayette (4-2)
7) Indiana (6-1) vs. 10) Dayton (6-1)

EAST
@St Louis
1) Kentucky (6-1) vs. 16) Elon (3-3)/Alabama St (2-2)
8) Pittsburgh (7-0) vs. 9) Charlotte (6-1)
@Spokane
4) Iowa St (5-0) vs. 13) Northern Colorado (3-2)
5) Gonzaga (7-1) vs. 12) Ohio (5-1)
@Orlando
3) Villanova (7-0) vs. 14) Cleveland St (4-3)
6) Michigan (5-2) vs. 11) Cincinnati (6-0)
@Buffalo
2) Syracuse (7-0) vs. 15) Bryant (4-2)
7) VCU (6-2) vs. 10) Colorado (7-1)

SOUTH
@St Louis
1) Kansas (6-1) vs. 16) Winthrop (3-1)
8) Marquette (5-2) vs. 9) Florida St (5-2)
@Orlando
4) Florida (6-1) vs. 13) Belmont (6-2)
5) UMass (6-0) vs. 12) Providence (7-2)/Illinois (7-0)
@Raleigh
3) Duke (6-2) vs. 14) Mercer (3-3)
6) Oregon (7-0) vs. 11) Tennessee (5-2)/Utah St (5-1)
@Milwaukee
2) Wisconsin (8-0) vs. 15) IPFW (4-3)
7) BYU (5-2) vs. 10) New Mexico (5-1)

WEST
@San Diego
1) Arizona (7-0) vs. 16) Oral Roberts (4-3)
8) Baylor (5-1) vs. 9) St Mary's (6-0)
@Spokane
4) UConn (7-0) vs. 13) Harvard (6-1)
5) Iowa (7-1) vs. 12) Drexel (4-2)
@San Antonio
3) Oklahoma St (7-1) vs. 14) Iona (3-2)
6) San Diego St (4-1) vs. 11) Notre Dame (5-1)
@Buffalo
2) Ohio St (6-0) vs. 15) New Mexico St (7-2)
7) Georgetown (4-2) vs. 10) Virginia (7-1)

No comments: