This is part 23 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Michigan St 16-4
Purdue 16-4
Michigan 15-5
Wisconsin 14-6
Maryland 13-7
Iowa 10-10
Minnesota 9-11
Ohio St 8-12
Indiana St 8-12
Penn St 7-13
Illinois 7-13
Rutgers 7-13
Nebraska 6-14
Northwestern 4-16
Format:
March 13-17 in Chicago. Double bye for the top 4 seeds, as is now customary.
Matchups:
1) Michigan St vs. 8/9) Ohio St/Indiana
4) Wisconsin vs. 5) Maryland vs. 12/13) Rutgers/Nebraska
3) Michigan vs. 6) Iowa vs. 11/14) Illinois/Northwestern
2) Purdue vs. 7/10) Minnesota/Penn St
The stakes:
I don't think anyone has the juice to get to the 1 line, so Michigan St, Michigan, and Purdue are all playing for positioning. It's quite probably that those 3 are playing for 2 spots in a Des Moines regional, with the loser at risk of being sent out west.
If a team has a shot at the 1 line, it's Michigan St with their 11 Q1 wins. I fear with their middling non-con SoS and results, that they won't be able to get there. Their Q1 wins are built mostly on the foundation of conference games. In the end, someone's gotta win the SEC and ACC, and there aren't many permutations that allow MSU a chance to get to the 1 line.
I favor Michigan over Purdue a touch...all their losses are in Q1, and they're 8-5 in Q1 games, so they've mostly kept a clean sheet. They're at the top of my 3 line, with a reasonable chance of the 2 line if they get to the finals.
Purdue is merely .500 in Q1 games. That's good enough for the 3 line with no risk of dropping down, IMO. Can they get a 2? Might need to win this, and even then it might be difficult to knock Michigan St (or someone else) off the 2 line.
Wisconsin and Maryland are the next tier to me. Wisky is 9-7 in Q1 games, solid SoS, only one truly dumb loss (WKU). The 3 line is really tight, so I'm not sure they can win their way that high, but they should be a 5 at worst. Maryland feels just a half-step behind Wisky with just a couple less Q1 wins and 1 dumb loss of their own (Illinois). They (should) play each other...the winner might get the 4 line, and the loser the 5 line (with the caveat that Wisky may be a 4 anyways).
Iowa has thrown away a significant number of seed lines. And all of a sudden, their wins over tournament teams look like this: Michigan, Iowa St, swept Indiana, Ohio St. They have a Q3 loss. Their non-con SoS is around 300. Um, this is usually the profile of a team who gets bounced in a surprise exclusion. Only 4 Q1 wins. Um, I get nervous the more and more I look at it. They may be well advised to get to the Michigan game in the bracket, at least. I'd much like to win that one just to be sure. I'd monitor this situation very closely.
Now, the true bubble teams.
Minnesota does have 2 legitimate business wins on the schedule with Purdue and @Wisky. 3 bad losses that show up as Q2 (Rutgers, Illinois, BC). 2-9 true road record, which is a real worry. Losing to Penn St would be real trouble. Just get to Purdue, and you might, maybe, be safe.
Ohio St lacks the impact wins (outside of @Cincy), but their other Q1 wins are pedestrian (by Q1 standards). A little better on the road (5-7), and one dumb Q3 loss to Illinois. I file them right behind Minnesota, thanks to one less signature win. Their game with Indiana might be a winner-in, loser-out game.
And now, Indiana. 6 Q1 wins, and there's some bigguns in there (swept MSU, Wisky, Louisville, Marquette). Unlike other teams in this range, Indiana's Q1 wins are legitimate business. Their non-con SoS is somehow 207 (their cupcakes hurt them bad), but they at least avoided the bad loss (unless NW and Rutgers count). Their big flaw is 8-14 vs. the top 2 quadrants. They definitely need to beat OSU, and maybe Michigan St again, to get in.
So it's pretty simple, the more I look at it. OSU/Indiana will decide a lot, and I would feel good about bouncing the loser out of the tournament. Minnesota gets the luck of the draw; they theoretically should handle Penn St and avoid a loss to a non-elite team, something OSU and IU can't do.
No comments:
Post a Comment