In-depth bracket thoughts 2/17

I want to expound on a few things, moreso than I did in last night's post.

We have a pretty clear Top 4, and I think all four teams could survive a loss and stay on the 1 line right now.  Florida passes the eye list, Arizona has 4 road/neutral wins against the top 25 in the S-Curve, and the other two are undefeated.  There is a mile of difference between #4 Wichita and #5 Kansas.

I'm waiting for others to drop Pitt accordingly.  Actually, this last week, losing to Syracuse and UNC wasn't bad, but they should've been a 9 seed before then, and should hold that seed now.

It's entirely possible I'm shorting UMass.  11 road/neutral wins, 12 wins vs. top 100.  I feel like that should be a 5 seed, minimum.  If they steady themselves, they'll rocket back up the board.  I also moved up St Louis now that they have a quality win.  They have more chances coming, so they will be bouncing around.

I've demoted Louisville to the 7 line.  The profile is barren.  It's possible I'm overreacting, but 2 wins over tourney teams and dropping winnable home games just aren't representative of a 4 or 5 seed.  They do have a shiny R/N record, though.  This seed could easily rebound.

Wisconsin is 4th in the B1G but should be 2nd among B1G teams in your S-Curves.  They've steadied, and their overall profile is signature.  They have 6 wins against teams in the top 20 on my S-Curve.  Too many quality wins.  We were correct to adjust for their slump, now we need to correct back.

Over in bubble land, you tell me what to do with the SEC.  Please.  I have to imagine they'll end up with 4 bids, because someone's going to have to win these conference games down the stretch.  But what a mess.  Over in the A-10, they have 6 bids, but are there enough quality wins to go around to support St Joe's and Richmond?  If I had to bet, one of them would miss.  I have G'town in and Provi/St John's out.  I bet two of those three eventually make it, given bubble attrition.

Based on tiebreakers, Western Michigan (head-to-head versus Akron and Toledo) is my projected MAC champ.  Others will blindly put in Toledo, and I'm ok with that.  Another such example in my bracket:  Yale > Harvard in my bracket.  I have UTEP over LaTech and MTSU for now as well.

I may add more to this post later in the day as I think of them.