2/26 recap

protected seed watch:
Virginia 65, Miami 40
Michigan 77, Purdue 76 (OT) - near disaster that would've been worth a seed line
Villanova 67, Butler 48
North Carolina 85, NC State 84 (OT) - decent road win that top seeds are supposed to get.  watch UNC's seed, it'll be good at this rate.  NC State is done and dusted
Arizona 87, California 59 - Zona starting to look dominant again, and might yet catch Florida as #1 overall; for now they're back to #2.  Cal isn't hurt too bad by this

lockbox watch:
UConn 61, USF 56
UMass 70, Rhode Island 67

bubble:
George Mason 69, Richmond 60 - catastrophic road loss will cause them to plummet well off the cutline
Iowa St 83, West Virginia 66 - WVU is out of chances, period
Pittsburgh 66, Boston College 59
Ole Miss 79, Alabama 67 - I suppose we'll continue to keep an eye for Ole Miss here
Tennessee 75, Mississippi St 68 - every road win is huge at this point
LSU 68, Texas A&M 49 - every win, period, is huge at this point
Northern Illinois 74, Toledo 66 - and that's probably the fatal blow
Illinois St 77, Indiana St 59 - and that's definitely the fatal blow
Fresno St 76, Boise St 56 - also a fatal blow, in case it wasn't already delivered
Texas 74, Baylor 69 - this doesn't hurt as bad for Baylor, but they need to overachieve in a game or two yet
Illinois 60, Nebraska 49 - marginal road loss for a marginal bubble team
Arizona St 76, Stanford 64 - you tell me what to do with the Pac-12, I give up

EIEIO watch:
Notre Dame 65, Georgia Tech 62
LaSalle 75, St Bonaventure 67
Buffalo 69, Ohio 64 - the MAC is weird this year
UNLV 78, Colorado St 70

small school watch:
High Point 70, VMI 67 - HP to the Big South lead
Boston 71, Army 70 - Boston +1 on American with 1 to play
Delaware 70, UNCW 57 - Delaware +1 on Towson with 1 to play
Belmont 94, SIU-E 75


Thursday:
Arkansas at Kentucky - this is absolutely Arkansas' last chance
Stony Brook at Vermont - this is likely for the A-East title
Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech - MTSU can take command of the CUSA race with this
Georgetown at Marquette - G'town desperately needs this
New Mexico St at Utah Valley - this is likely for the WAC title
Tulsa at UTEP - winner will have a legit chance at the CUSA title
Oregon at UCLA - Oregon can't afford too many more losses

Hold-serve bubble theather:  Gonzaga at Pacific, VCU at Fordham, FIU at Southern Miss