Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Bracket matrix comparisons

Let's take a quick look at the bracket matrix (bracketmatrix.com) and see where I disagree with the masses.

1) The only disagreement on the top 4 lines that we have are Virginia (I have 5, the masses have 4) and Iowa (vice versa).  That is astonishing to me.  Near perfect agreement on the top lines.

2) Pittsburgh.  Bracket Matrix has them on the 6 line, I have them on the 9 line.  I would urge other people to look past the name and the conference and dig into the profile, which I did in dropping them a few seeding lines lately.  They have one win over a tournament team right now:  N-Stanford.  Plus, the eye test has to come into play - they looked awful last week, winning two OT games against inferior competition.

3) North Carolina.  Bracket Matrix has them on the 9 line, I have them on the 7 line.  Their 3 signature wins still exist (N-Louisville, @Michigan St, Kentucky), plus they have a N-Richmond win that's gaining steam.  Meanwhile, their Texas loss looks better.

At the time, all the bad losses scared people off, rightfully so.  Everyone wanted to see stability.  They've won 6 of 7, with a reasonable loss @Virginia.  It's time to creep them back up the board with their wins they have.

4) Florida St/Providence/Oregon - Bracket Matrix has these 3 teams in the field, I have them out.  Providence I have no issue with.  Oregon?  A little bit, only because they've been so awful as of late.

But Florida St?  Guys, it's time to abandon ship.  I know they have the two wins over VCU and UMass, but that's their only wins over tournament teams right now.  Any decent ACC result could've gotten them there, but they need to show it before they get rewarded.

5) North Carolina Central - projected 15 seed by the Matrix, 14 by me.  I bring it up because I think the 15 and 16 lines are very soft this year, and a single road win @NC State could be worth that seeding line.

6) Believe it or not, it appears I'm within 1 seeding line on all my other teams.

7) I'm kind of on an island with Ole Miss right now, and probably rightfully so.  Their profile isn't pretty.  But they do have a trump card over Mizzou and LSU, and I can throw out the Miss. St loss because of the Henderson suspension.

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