Sunday, February 16, 2014

2/17 Bubble Watch

One more presentation of my personal cheat sheet.  I've edited it to make it presentable.  This is my generic cheat sheet with the basic information I need to bracket.  Use it for whatever you so desire.

This is probably the last time I'll post it; it'll be March by the next time a useful update can be applied.



America East

Conference championship watch

Vermont (15-9) (11-1) RPI 110 SoS 207
Stony Brook (17-8) (10-2) RPI 177 SoS 319

At least Vermont won @Yale and N-Illinois St.  Frankly, all the profiles in A-East suggest play-in games, but Vermont has a reasonable shot of avoiding.  There's not much to see here.

EIEIO watch
Albany (13-13) (7-6) RPI 230 SoS 291 - if you have to have a 3rd team.  Hartford is 3rd in the conference, by the way

No postseason
Hartford, *UMass-Lowell, UMBC, New Hampshire, Binghamton, Maine
American

Lockbox

Cincinnati (23-3) (12-1) RPI 16 SoS 81
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 103, 5-3 vs. Top 50, 8-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 156/35
Quality wins:  UConn, N-Pitt, @Memphis, @L-ville, SMU, NC St?
Bad losses:  perhaps @SMU and N-Xavier if they want a truly high seed
Acing the American schedule to date has put them in a good position for a high seed; just not 1 or 2.  All 3 losses are R/N losses against decent but not great teams, and road wins at Memphis and L'ville erase those sins.

Memphis (18-6) (8-4) RPI 33 SoS 61
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 71, 3-6 vs. Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 178/26
Quality wins:  Gonzaga, @L-ville, N-Oklahoma St and LSU
Bad losses:  swept by UConn...OSU ended up being a split...all 6 losses inside top 50
A pretty standard lock profile at this point.  They've got some high profile games left in conference play, so the seeding may be variant in the next month, but it'll take losses in all of them to bring the bubble into play.

Connecticut (20-5) (8-4) RPI 24 SoS 63
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 67, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 145/61
Quality wins:  Florida, sweep of Memphis, Harvard and N-Maryland?
Bad losses:  @Houston...I suppose Stanford?
The sweep of Memphis helps bolster the lack of quantity in the profile.  Should be safe for good, but they have 3 high-profile games left in the American.  I'd get a couple of them to make sure.  The real trick is finding an appropriate seed for them, especially with that Florida lynchpin.

Louisville (21-4) (10-2) RPI 34 SoS 97
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 156, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 181/24
Quality wins:  @UConn, SMU and USM at home?
Bad losses:  none, perhaps home to Cincy and Memphis should've been taken care of
Their non-con still has the same holes it always had.  Win at UConn is frankly saving their bacon right now.  They've got shots at Cincy and Memphis coming, but they're roadies.  Better win one, or we'd have to revisit the lockbox status.  This is an eye test team right now.

Bubble

SMU (20-6) (9-4) RPI 37 SoS 117
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 282, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 180/63
Quality wins:  Cincy, UConn, Memphis (all at home), @Wyoming?
Bad losses:  @USF, @Temple, @Arkansas?  all 6 losses are R/N
The good news is they're winning the home games against quality teams.  At least it's something in their pocket.  Road chances at UConn and Memphis still on the board.  A split should be enough, but if not, that non-con SoS is going to be a significant issue.

No postseason
Houston, Rutgers, South Florida, Central Florida, Temple - behind SMU, maybe Houston reaches .500?
ACC

Lockbox

Syracuse (25-0) (12-0) RPI 3 SoS 50
Vital signs:  9-0 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 8-0 vs. Top 50, 13-0 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 116/0
Quality wins:  Nova, Duke, UNC, Pitt at home; @Pitt, Minny-Cal-Baylor in Maui
Bad losses:  no
The real question is what to do with them if they start losing.  Just estimating, they've got to lose 3 times to lose the 1 seed at this point.

Duke (20-5) (9-3) RPI 8 SoS 9
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 19, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 9-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 117/38
Quality wins:  Michigan, Virginia, N-UCLA, @Pitt
Bad losses:  @Clemson and Notre Dame look bad
Those 4 wins listed above might be their only 4 wins vs. tournament teams, despite the sterling computer numbers.  This could be an issue in seeding.  A sweep of UNC and Syracuse could fix a lot of ills, or an anti-sweep could actually push them down some seeding lines.

Virginia (21-5) (12-1) RPI 18 SoS 32
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 43, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 9-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 138/31
Quality wins:  UNC, @Pitt, N-SMU?  @NC St and FSU?
Bad losses:  perhaps @Tennessee and Green Bay
0-3 vs. Top 25 might be a slight ding when it comes to protected seeding chances, but they're safely in the tourney.  Non-con whiffs against Wisky and VCU hurt right now.

North Carolina (17-7) (7-4) RPI 30 SoS 14
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 22, 5-3 vs. Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 123/70
Quality wins:  @Michigan St, Kentucky, N-Louisville...Pitt, N-Richmond is gaining speed
Bad losses:  @UAB, Miami, @Wake, Belmont
The consistency in ACC play is helping to erase the bad loss sins.  At this point, bad loss avoidance is much more important than getting more quality wins.  They'll become very hard to seed if they do get more signature wins, though.

Bubble

Pittsburgh (20-6) (8-5) RPI 32 SoS 46
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 204, 1-6 vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 155/13
Quality wins:  N-Stanford...@NC State and swept Maryland?  Clemson at home?
Bad losses:  all 6 are inside the top 30
Um, at some point, you need quality wins.  And they're out of chances against the top 4.  Any loss now would be seen as a bad loss (although @Clemson wouldn't be horrible).  All of a sudden, this is a profile in trouble, with no heft.  This team is not safe, folks.  Better win.

Florida St (15-10) (6-7) RPI 60 SoS 51
Vital signs:  7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 86, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 168/41
Quality wins:  N-UMass, N-VCU, uh @Clemson and Wake?
Bad losses:  Miami, Clemson, @Maryland, @NC State, etc
A big slide has taken them on the brink of the bubble, and those non-con results are the only thing really keeping them alive at this point.  They've got UNC and @Pitt coming up and may need a sweep.

North Carolina St (16-9) (6-6) RPI 51 SoS 26
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 116, 0-7 vs. Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 159/42
Quality wins:  @Tennessee, and we're done here
Bad losses:  NCCU at home, probably.  @Wake
The profile obviously needed the Syracuse upset, and didn't get it.  We're pretty much done here.

Clemson (15-9) (6-6) RPI 77 SoS 93
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 275, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 3-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 199/56
Quality wins:  Duke, @FSU
Bad losses:  @Auburn, @Notre Dame, @Arkansas
Barely hanging on thanks to the Duke win.  We're pretty much done here too.

NIT watch
Maryland (14-12) (6-7) RPI 76 SoS 31
Wake Forest (14-11) (4-8) RPI 99 SoS 68
Notre Dame (14-12) (5-8) RPI 108 SoS 36 - in reality, a couple of these teams will go below .500 soon, as will GT

No postseason
Georgia Tech, Miami, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun

Conference championship watch

Mercer (18-6) (12-2) RPI 66 SoS 196
FGCU (15-10) (11-3) RPI 158 SoS 262

Mercer is the class of the league; FGCU is the only other team with less than 6 losses in conference play.  Mercer won at Ole Miss and beat Seton Hall so that helps explain the computer numbers and reasonable 13 seed chances.

EIEIO watch
East Tennessee St (15-12) (9-6) RPI 208 SoS 256
USC Upstate (13-12) (8-6) RPI 192 SoS 269
North Florida (12-13) (8-6) RPI 193 SoS 237 - the battle for 3rd here could double as the battle for a CIT spot

No postseason
Lipscomb, Stetson, Jacksonville,*Northern Kentucky, Kennesaw St
A-10

Lockbox

St Louis (22-2) (10-0) RPI 13 SoS 75
Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 78, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 151/7
Quality wins:  VCU, Richmond, @St Joe's?  Indiana St?  @Dayton?
Bad losses:  both are inside Top 10
Finally, a bonafide win to help support the resume.  @VCU, @UMass, Dayton, GWU still on the schedule, so the story is just beginning here.

UMass (20-5) (7-4) RPI 19 SoS 49
Vital signs:  11-4 R/N, non-con SoS 26, 4-2 vs. Top 50, 12-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 109/74
Quality wins:  N-New Mexico, @GWU, N-BYU, St Joe's and Provi...and more marginal wins
Bad losses:  George Mason?  ugh.  Also @St Bonaventure
Big win at GWU helps stem the recent slide.  GMU is the one loss that really stings - the others are R/N and explainable.  But 12 top 100 wins and 11 R/N wins are too good not to lockbox right now.  Just stop losing marginal games.

Bubble

VCU (20-6) (8-3) RPI 23 SoS 59
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 88, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 140/53
Quality wins:  @Virginia, GWU, Richmond, @Dayton and Belmont?
Bad losses:  @UNI, N-FSU?
All losses are R/N, which slightly helps.  This might be a conservative call, but I'm not going to lock them in at this time.  They probably need to avoid disasters more than anything else.

George Washington (19-6) (7-4) RPI 36 SoS 87
Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 122, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 8-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 162/51
Quality wins:  N-Creighton, VCU, N-Maryland?  eh
Bad losses:  @LaSalle and N-Marquette, perhaps
Two whiffed chances vs. UMass and at VCU mean no lockbox.  They'll have to sweat a bit more.  However, they have a trump card against Creighton to play if they need it.  In a similar situation to VCU.

St Joseph's (17-7) (7-3) RPI 43 SoS 61
Vital signs:  8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 135, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 160/49
Quality wins:  UMass, VCU, @Dayton?
Bad losses:  @Temple...couple marginal ones like N-LSU, @Richmond
This is a profile almost completely built on their conference play.  Their non-con is going to hurt them, period.  The fact that the signature wins came at home means there's work left to do.  This might be a one-game season for St Joe's - @GWU in a few weeks.

Richmond (17-8) (7-3) RPI 40 SoS 48
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 89, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 159/43
Quality wins:  UMass, St Joe's, Dayton
Bad losses:  @Wake, @St Bonaventure, losses magnified by the fact they have no top 100 road wins
Significant home court bias in this resume, which probably means they're on the outside right now.  The problem is they're out of road chances against better teams.  No choice but to hold home court against GWU and VCU and hope.

Dayton (17-8) (5-5) RPI 58 SoS 69
Vital signs:  8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 89, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 151/78
Quality wins:  N-Gonzaga and Cal in Maui, GWU, @Ole Miss
Bad losses:  @URI, USC, @Illinois St is a trio of suck
Still getting a courtesy look because the wins compare favorably to other bubble teams.  If they get hot, they can rally back to the good side of the bubble quickly.

NIT watch
St Bonaventure (15-10) (5-6) RPI 80 SoS 96
LaSalle (12-12) (4-6) RPI 92 SoS 40

No postseason
Duquesne, Rhode Island, Fordham, George Mason
Big East

Lockbox

Villanova (22-3) (10-2) RPI 5 SoS 25
Vital signs:  11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 29, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 10-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 117/7
Quality wins:  Kansas/Iowa in Atlantis, @St Joe's, Xavier, G'town
Bad losses:  only by eleventy billion to Creighton
Still need to work on building profile depth to justify a 1 or 2 seed.  Winning a bunch of BEast games down the stretch will solve that issue, really.  But the Creighton trump card is going to be played against them.

Creighton (21-4) (11-2) RPI 11 SoS 33
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 51, 6-2 vs. Top 50, 10-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 120/43
Quality wins:  swept Villanova...N-Arizona St, @St Joe's, Cal/Xavier/G'town, etc
Bad losses:  perhaps @St John's and Provi for protected seed chances
Obvious lock, not-so-obvious seeding case.  Sweep of Villanova helps.

Bubble

Xavier (16-8) (7-5) RPI 49 SoS 52
Vital signs:  4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 115, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 7-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 117/63
Quality wins:  N-Cincy...and a bunch of homies.  Tenn, G'town, Provi, St John's
Bad losses:  N-USC, Seton Hall, @Marq?
They're making this harder than it has to be.  A brutal R/N record is going to be the issue, and they're almost out of road chances to make an impact there.  In for now, but it's getting dicey.

Georgetown (15-10) (6-7) RPI 55 SoS 23
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 35, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 128/66
Quality wins:  N-Michigan St, N-VCU, N-Kansas St, Provi and St John's?
Bad losses:  N-Northeastern, Seton Hall and Marquette at home
Those signature wins are giving them some second chances.  Outside of them, there's not a lot to get excited about here.  But we have to take them seriously again

Providence (17-9) (7-6) RPI 56 SoS 58
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 149, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 140/53
Quality wins:  Creighton, Xavier, G'town, @St John's
Bad losses:  Seton Hall, N-Maryland?
Bad news is they'll have to completely rely on conference play, as the non-con contains anything of significance.  Decent home wins can only hold up the profile so much.

St John's (17-9) (7-6) RPI 57 SoS 37
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 123, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 167/45
Quality wins:  Creighton, @Provi, G'town, and...
Bad losses:  @DePaul, Penn St
The win over Creighton merely gets them onto the page, not over the bubble yet.  We'll need more from them.

NIT watch
Marquette (15-10) (7-5) RPI 74 SoS 71 - I was tempted to take a courtesy bubble look, but 4-8 R/N, 4 top 100 wins not enough despite N-GWU win

EIEIO watch
Seton Hall (13-12) (4-8) RPI 140 SoS 98

No postseason
Butler, DePaul
Big Sky

Conference championship watch

Weber St (12-7) (11-2) RPI 156 SoS 266
Northern Colorado (13-8) (9-5) RPI 165 SoS 285

In reality, Weber St has this conference on lockdown.  N. Colorado has the conference's signature win at Kansas St.  Weber St actually doesn't have a top 200 win OOC.  They're staring the 16 line in the face.

EIEIO watch
Montana (10-11) (7-7) RPI 197 SoS 251 - at the moment, they're the only other CIT-eligible team, but check out the conference standings:  N. Dakota (8-6, 2 games under .500 overall), N. Arizona (8-6, 3 games under), E. Washington (7-7, 1 game under), Montana St (7-7, 1 game under), Sac. St (7-7, 1 game under).  What a mess.  Have fun, CIT.

No postseason
North Dakota, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, Montana St, Sacramento St, Idaho St, Portland St, Southern Utah
Big South

Conference championship watch

Coastal Carolina (13-10) (9-3) RPI 221 SoS 294
VMI (11-10) (8-4) RPI 246 SoS 332

There are 5 teams on 7 wins behind this.  What a mess.  High Point, Radford, Winthrop, Gardner-Webb, UNCA.  And none of the top 7 own a top 100 win.  Whoever prevails is going to Dayton.

EIEIO watch
Radford (14-10) (7-5) RPI 251 SoS 346
Winthrop (11-11) (7-5) RPI 214 SoS 274

No postseason
Gardner-Webb, UNC-Asheville, High Point, Campbell, Charleston Southern, Liberty, Longwood, Presbyterian - the first two are .500 teams as of now, but I have to prune the list somehow
Big Ten

Lockbox

Michigan St (21-5) (10-3) RPI 9 SoS 16
Vital signs:  10-2 R/N, non-con SoS 52, 6-3 vs. Top 50, 9-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 118/26
Quality wins:  N-Kentucky, Ohio St, @Texas, @Iowa, N-Oklahoma, etc
Bad losses:  Nebraska, perhaps N-Georgetown
Pretty standard high seed resume.  2 seed for now; not much to discuss here.

Michigan (18-7) (10-3) RPI 14 SoS 8
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 6-5 vs. Top 50, 10-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 117/48
Quality wins:  @Wisky, @MSU, @Ohio St, @Minny, N-Stanford/FSU, Iowa
Bad losses:  N-Charlotte, @indiana
The high end road wins erase the couple of sins.  1 seed likely out of reach, 2 definitely in play.

Wisconsin (21-5) (8-5) RPI 7 SoS 2
Vital signs:  9-2 R/N, non-con SoS 7, 7-3 vs. Top 50, 14-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 96/54
Quality wins:  Florida, MSU, @Michigan, N-St Louis, @Virginia, Iowa, Minny, etc (there's more)
Bad losses:  Northwestern and @Indiana don't help
They've rebounded from a lackluster stretch and are an obvious lock and 2 seed candidate.

Iowa (19-6) (8-4) RPI 27 SoS 45
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 219, 4-6 vs. Top 50, 9-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 142/10
Quality wins:  Michigan, @OSU, Minny, N-Xavier
Bad losses:  all 6 are inside the Top 17
That non-con SoS puts them a level below the top 3 in the conference.  Still obviously a lock though, but they need quality wins more than most to help erase previous sins.

Ohio St (20-6) (7-6) RPI 17 SoS 6
VItal signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 42, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 11-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 111/43
Quality wins:  @Wisky, @Iowa, NDSU?
Bad losses:  Penn St, @Nebraska
Were slowly getting into trouble, but the Wisky/Iowa road double restores them to lock status.  Just like Iowa, but not like Iowa, in terms of situation.  They have many good but not great wins (NDSU, Delaware, Ohio, @Marq, Mary, Wyo) in the non-con, which if you add them all up, do have some value.

Bubble

Minnesota (16-9) (6-7) RPI 38 SoS 4
Vital signs:  3-7 R/N, non-con SoS 31, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 133/45
Quality wins:  Wisky and OSU, @Richmond, FSU
Bad losses:  @Purdue, Northwestern, N-Arkansas?  @Nebraska
I can't imagine only 5 B1G teams, but this profile isn't home free yet.  I would suggest getting a couple road results to help boost the profile the most.  They have OSU and Michigan on the docket on that front.

Nebraska (14-10) (6-6) RPI 68 SoS 28
Vital signs:  2-9 R/N, non-con SoS 110, 2-7 vs. Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 157/49
Quality wins:  @Michigan St, Ohio St, Minnesota
Bad losses:  N-UAB, @Penn St, @Purdue
I had them off the board when I started writing this, and then they ruined everything by winning at Michigan St.  Still a lot of work left to do, but they're in play right now.  7 of their losses are top 30 losses, so it's somewhat forgivable with a couple signature wins in tow.  Still, 2-9 R/N and 2-7 vs. Top 50 are black marks right now.

NIT watch
Indiana (14-11) (4-8) RPI 103 SoS 72 - they have to be taken off of every board now.  Home wins over Wisky and Michigan just aren't enough

EIEIO watch
Purdue (15-10) (5-7) RPI 106 SoS 109
Illinois (14-12) (3-10) RPI 89 SoS 53

No postseason
Northwestern, Penn St - and heck, both of them can finish at .500 too
Big 12

Lockbox

Kansas (19-6) (10-2) RPI 1 SoS 1
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 10-6 vs. Top 50, 15-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 75/19
Quality wins:  N-Duke and New Mexico, sweep of Iowa St, @Oklahoma, K-State, Okla St, G'town, on and on and on
Bad losses:  all inside Top 35
The #1 SoS by a ridiculous margin.  At some point, too many losses are too many losses, but they're not at that point yet.  2 seed with 1 seed upside.  Could use some help in mitigating road losses to good but not great competition.

Iowa St (19-5) (7-5) RPI 10 SoS 12
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 75, 7-4 vs. Top 50, 9-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 115/24
Quality wins:  Michigan/Oklahoma/Iowa/K-State at home, @OkSt, @BYU
Bad losses:  perhaps @WVU
They've defaulted to the 2nd best resume in the Big 12.  Could use a better road win to help justify a 2 or 3 seed, but they're fine overall.

Texas (20-5) (9-3) RPI 22 SoS 41
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 149, 6-5 vs. Top 50, 11-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 127/32
Quality wins:  Kansas, ISU, @UNC, K-State, OkSt
Bad losses:  all are inside Top 50, can't call any of them that bad
And Texas is quickly defaulting to the #3 Big 12 team.  Good wins, no bad losses, a really simple profile to lock in.  5 or 6 seed sounds about right.

Oklahoma (19-7) (8-5) RPI 25 SoS 17
Vital signs:  8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 91, 6-4 vs. Top 50, 7-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 125/44
Quality wins:  ISU, @Texas, swept OSU and Baylor
Bad losses:  Texas Tech, @WVU and LaTech?
They're doing a pretty good job erasing the fact that the non-con resume is lacking sorely.  Safely in if they avoid major issues down the stretch.  The seeding could vary greatly, though.

Kansas St (17-8) (7-5) RPI 35 SoS 19
Vital signs:  3-7 R/N, non-con SoS 121, 6-4 vs. Top 50, 8-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 126/64
Quality wins:  Kansas, Gonzaga, Texas, Okla, GWU, OkSt, WVU, Ole Miss, all at home
Bad losses:  N. Colorado, N-Charlotte
Lost all their significant road games, win all their significant home games.  Throw out NCU and they won their 9 toughest home games.  And they lost their 7 toughest R/N games.  They still get the Oklahomas on the road...please just win one to make this easy on everyone.

Bubble

Oklahoma St (16-9) (4-8) RPI 44 SoS 15
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 80, 3-8 vs. Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 141/34
Quality wins:  Texas, N-Colorado, Memphis, swept WVU, N-LaTech
Bad losses:  @TTU, Baylor?
Welcome to the bubble.  Still some good high-end wins and many of the losses were reasonable, so they're still in for sure.  But let's not get too crazy about them.

Baylor (14-9) (4-8) RPI 50 SoS 7
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 33, 4-7 vs. Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 147/29
Quality wins:  Kentucky, N-Colorado, Kansas St, @OSU, N-Dayton?
Bad losses:  @TTU, WVU?
Still alive with the non-con wins, still need a lot of work to do.  And if we're listing OSU at 4-8 in conference play, we might as well list Baylor as well.  Their profile is kind of mediocre across the board instead of having a glaring weakness.

West Virginia (15-11) (7-6) RPI 69 SoS 39
Vital signs:  6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 177, 4-9 vs. Top 50, 4-9 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 162/52
Quality wins:  ISU, Okla, K-State, @Baylor
Bad losses:  @VT, Purdue
They've forced their way to the bubble, but that's all.  LIterally nothing in the non-con, and so many whiffs against the Top 50 over the season.  Don't get caught up in this.

NIT watch
Texas Tech (13-12) (5-7) RPI 104 SoS 67

No postseason
TCU
Big West

Conference championship watch

UC Irvine (15-9) (8-2) RPI 118 SoS 188
UC Santa Barbara (14-7) (7-3) RPI 93 SoS 163
Hawaii (16-7) (7-4) RPI 137 SoS 221

Irvine won at Washington, UCSB won at UNLV and vs. California, Hawaii won vs. St Mary's and N-Oregon St, so they won't be on the 16 line at least.  LBSU is also 7-4 in conference but under .500 overall; no other school is going to be over .500.

No postseason
Long Beach St, Cal Poly, Cal St-Northridge, Cal St-Fullerton, UC Davis, UC Riverside
Colonial

Conference championship watch

Delaware (19-7) (11-0) RPI 63 SoS 147
Towson (16-9) (8-3) RPI 127 SoS 226

Delaware has an empty calories profile - that 63 RPI is not representative of their real profile.  No quality wins of note.  As for the conference race, it's over.

EIEIO watch
William & Mary (14-9) (7-4) RPI 125 SoS 178
Drexel (14-11) (6-6) RPI 123 SoS 127

No postseason
Northeastern, Charleston, James Madison, Hofstra, UNC-Wilmington
CUSA

Bubble

Southern Miss (19-5) (8-3) RPI 42 SoS 143
Vital signs:  10-5 R/N, non-con SoS 164, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 3-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 188/108
Quality wins:  @NDSU, LaTech, Ga St?
Bad losses:  @UAB, @WKU?  @Tulsa?
This is a token listing at this point.  They're off the board now.

Louisiana Tech (20-5) (9-2) RPI 78 SoS 233
Vital signs:  9-4 R/N, non-con SoS 289, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 227/76
Quality wins:  @Oklahoma, N-St Bona?
Bad losses:  UL-Lafayette, other 4 are reasonable
They're clinging to hope and are completely dependent on Oklahoma, but a pulse is a pulse

NIT watch
UTEP (17-7) (9-2) RPI 96 SoS 137 - they did beat UT on a neutral but that's it
Middle Tennessee (17-7) (9-2) RPI 73 SoS 126 - they did beat Southern Miss and Akron

EIEIO watch
Tulsa (13-12) (8-3) RPI 121 SoS 93 - did beat Southern Miss and N-Indiana St and MTSU...they've finally stopped losing a bunch of games to mask decency in the profile
Charlotte (14-10) (5-6) RPI 141 SoS 165
UAB (13-10) (4-7) RPI 164 SoS 165
Tulane (13-12) (6-5) RPI 207 SoS 234

No postseason
Old Dominion, *Florida International, Florida Atlantic, UTSA, North Texas, Marshall, East Carolina, Rice - ODU is actually decent and ECU is technically still .500, but they're all out
Horizon

NIT watch
Green Bay (18-5) (11-2) RPI 64 SoS 145 - I just can't give them the bubble spot.  Virginia win can't do all the heavy lifting

NIT watch
Cleveland St (16-10) (9-4) RPI 100 SoS 150 - emerged as the #2 Horizon team, probably

EIEIO watch
Valparaiso (13-11) (8-4) RPI 168 SoS 197
Milwaukee (15-10) (6-6) RPI 154 SoS 229
Wright St (13-13) (7-6) RPI 225 SoS 253

No postseason
Youngstown St, Detroit, Oakland, UIC
Independents

No postseason
NJIT
Ivy

NIT watch
Harvard (19-4) (7-1) RPI 52 SoS 182 - I just can't justify a bubble spot for them right now

EIEIO watch
Yale (12-9) (7-1) RPI 120 SoS 160 - and technically lead the conference on the tiebreaker at this point; literally did nothing in the non-con though
Brown (12-9) (5-3) RPI 210 SoS 308
Columbia (14-10) (4-4) RPI 157 SoS 217

No postseason
Princeton, Penn, Dartmouth, Cornell - Princeton is actually 13-7 but I'm demoting them at 2-5 in the Ivy
MAAC

Conference championship watch

Iona (17-8) (14-2) RPI 81 SoS 149
Manhattan (19-6) (12-4) RPI 82 SoS 207
Quinnipiac (17-8) (12-4) RPI 91 SoS 170
Canisius (18-8) (12-4) RPI 102 SoS 202

A pretty competitive top 4 here; Iona has created separation by a little bit.  Manhattan beat LaSalle, Canisius > Georgia St...the MAAC usually has better high-end wins than this.  A bit of a down year for them.

EIEIO watch
Rider (13-12) (9-7) RPI 181 SoS 231

No postseason
Siena, Marist, St Peter's, Monmouth, Niagara, Fairfield
MAC

Bubble

Toledo (20-4) (9-3) RPI 31 SoS 128
Vital signs:  9-4 R/N, non-con SoS 147, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 3-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 183/60
Quality wins:  Ohio, @Akron, Cleveland St?
Bad losses:  @WMU
RPI of 31!  Jeez, what a misrepresentative number.

NIT watch
Ohio (17-7) (8-4) RPI 65 SoS 113 - they actually have 4 Top 100 wins and a not-completely-hollow argument to be on the bubble
Akron (17-8) (9-3) RPI 85 SoS 162

EIEIO watch
Eastern Michigan (12-10) (7-5) RPI 67 SoS 35
Western Michigan (15-8) (9-3) RPI 107 SoS 176
Buffalo (13-8) (8-4) RPI 131 SoS 198

No postseason
Kent St, Bowling Green, Miami(OH), Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Ball St - KSU's still at .500 but having a bad MAC year
MEAC

Conference championship watch

North Carolina Central (17-5) (11-1) RPI 129 SoS 342
Norfolk St (11-11) (8-3) RPI 263 SoS 343

NCCU won at NC State and ODU, so they'll get mild respect in the seeding process.  The MEAC standings are a bit scattered, NSU is my best guess as a challenger.  Morgan St is 7-3 and could also chase.

EIEIO watch
Hampton (14-11) (9-4) RPI 226 SoS 318

No postseason
Morgan St, Savannah St, Coppin St, Florida A&M, South Carolina St, North Carolina A&T, Howard, Bethune-Cookman, Delaware St, UMES
MVC

Lockbox

Wichita St (26-0) (13-0) RPI 6 SoS 92
Vital signs:  12-0 R/N, non-con SoS 44, 2-0 vs. Top 50, 5-0 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 144/0
Quality wins:  @St Louis, N-BYU, Tennessee, swept Indiana St
Bad losses:  nope
They are 12-0 against RPI teams 101-150.  That's quite ridiculous.  7-0 against 101-125.  This is lesson #1 why you shouldn't blindly trust records vs. Top 50 and Top 100 when evaluating.

Bubble

Indiana St (18-6) (11-3) RPI 54 SoS 135
Vital signs:  9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 203, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 1-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 203/70
Quality wins:  Belmont, @UNI and ND?
Bad losses:  @SIU
Nope.  Good luck finding value in this profile.

EIEIO watch
Missouri St (16-9) (7-7) RPI 109 SoS 171
Illinois St (13-12) (7-7) RPI 138 SoS 116
Northern Iowa (12-13) (7-7) RPI 105 SoS 78

No postseason
Bradley, Southern Illinois, Evansville, Loyola(Chi) - Drake is .500 but going nowhere, honestly
Mountain West

Lockbox

San Diego St (20-2) (11-1) RPI 20 SoS 105
Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 95, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 7-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 160/43
Quality wins:  @Kansas, N-Creighton, swept Boise, N-Marquette?
Bad losses:  I guess we have to count @Wyoming
The first slip-up happened.  They still should be on the 2 line, given the high-end wins.  But now the season series upcoming with New Mexico matters just a bit more.  No losses outside of that series should mean a protected seed, easily.

Bubble

New Mexico (19-5) (10-2) RPI 28 SoS 64
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 14, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 151/51
Quality wins:  Cincy, Boise?  N-Marquette?
Bad losses:  UNLV, NMSU
Wavered back and forth on lockbox status for them.  Should be fine; a win over SDSU would really tidy things up.  It's a good thing the Cincy win is there because there's not a lot behind it.  But it did happen, so you have to give credit.

NIT watch
UNLV (17-8) (8-4) RPI 97 SoS 131 - no non-con results to help, the one win @New Mexico isn't enough
Wyoming (14-9) (7-5) RPI 84 SoS 106 - another close bubble call, but there's nothing behind the SDSU win, especially from the non-con
Boise St (14-9) (6-6) RPI 62 SoS 42 - now off the bubble, the one win over New Mexico not enough given no non-con results to help.  Sense a theme here?

EIEIO watch
Fresno St (11-13) (6-7) RPI 133 SoS 83
Utah St (14-10) (5-8) RPI 111 SoS 103
Colorado St (12-12) (5-8) RPI 150 SoS 101

No postseason
Nevada, Air Force, San Jose St - Nevada has faded from their hot conference start
Northeast

Conference championship watch

Robert Morris (16-11) (11-1) RPI 128 SoS 227
Bryant (15-10) (8-3) RPI 126 SoS 203

Robert Morris is the class, Bryant is the closest chaser, and this conference has done little to nothing OOC.  Bryant beat Vermont and Yale, so that may help them escape Dayton.

EIEIO watch
St Francis(NY) (14-11) (6-5) RPI 165 SoS 270
Wagner (12-11) (7-4) RPI 241 SoS 336

No postseason
Mount St Mary's, St Francis(PA), Central Connecticut St, Fairleigh Dickinson, LIU, Sacred Heart
OVC

NIT watch
Belmont (19-8) (11-2) RPI 61 SoS 134 - too many marginal losses, otherwise @UNC might've given them life.  They're aligning for a 13 seed in March, just can't give them any better

EIEIO watch
Murray St (14-9) (11-2) RPI 152 SoS 257
Morehead St (16-9) (9-3) RPI 113 SoS 204
Eastern Kentucky (16-9) (8-5) RPI 130 SoS 239

No postseason
SIU-Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Eastern Illinois, Austin Peay, SE Missouri St, Jacksonville St, Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee St
Pac-12

Lockbox

Arizona (23-2) (10-2) RPI 2 SoS 10
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 35, 8-2 vs. Top 50, 13-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 106/37
Quality wins:  N-Duke, @Michigan, @UCLA, @SDSU, Colo/ASU/Ore/Stan
Bad losses:  I guess @Cal and @ASU count here
Still a clear #1 seed, just maybe not ahead of Florida now.  It'll be TBD.

UCLA (20-5) (9-3) RPI 15 SoS 13
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 74, 6-3 vs. Top 50, 9-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 118/45
Quality wins:  swept Colorado, ASU, Cal, @Oregon, Stanford
Bad losses:  @Utah, @Oregon St
It's close, but I'll put them in the lockbox.  The problem is all of the legwork is done in conference play, which means no signature wins are now on this resume.  That will make it difficult to get a protected seed, but they're safely in.

Bubble

Arizona St (19-6) (8-4) RPI 29 SoS 54
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 206, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 145/46
Quality wins:  Arizona, Colorado, @Cal, Oregon, Marquette?
Bad losses:  N-Miami, Washington
Probably ascends to 3rd in the pecking order here.  One big win changes the whole value of the profile.  I would suggest a couple of road wins just to be sure, though.  Non-con SoS and lack of non-con results aren't helping things, either.

Colorado (19-7) (8-5) RPI 26 SoS 21
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 38, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 9-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 138/34
Quality wins:  Kansas, Oregon, Harvard?
Bad losses:  @Washington?  N-Baylor?
Um, they need more quality wins.  Kansas makes up for quality, but they need quantity.  It's still tough to imagine them missing, but more losses will have that side effect.

California (17-8) (8-4) RPI 45 SoS 47
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 99, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 7-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 142/50
Quality wins:  Arizona, @Oregon, @Stanford, N-Arkansas?
Bad losses:  @USC, @UCSB, kinda
Yet another case where a signature win makes a profile go a long way.  Another team who should easily be safe as of today, but losses can very quickly ruin this profile.  Tread carefully.

Stanford (16-8) (7-5) RPI 47 SoS 37
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 77, 4-6 vs. Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 148/39
Quality wins:  @UConn, ASU, @Cal, @Oregon
Bad losses:  @Washington, @Oregon St?
Pretty good R/N record, which actually helps to forgive the two bad road losses a bit.  @UConn is their signature win, but it's not as signature as the wins the other Pac-12 teams have.  This is another profile, less safe than the first 3, but safe nonetheless.  Tread carefully, again.

Oregon (16-8) (4-8) RPI 46 SoS 24
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 68, 1-6 vs. Top 50, 7-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 136/42
Quality wins:  BYU, N-G'town, @Ole Miss?  ugh
Bad losses:  @Washington, @Oregon St
Barely hanging on to the bubble.  We're still looking because of the SoS but we're about done here.

NIT watch
Washington (14-12) (6-7) RPI 85 SoS 43
Utah (15-8) (6-7) RPI 93 SoS 125
Oregon St (13-11) (5-7) RPI 83 SoS 70

No postseason
Washington St, USC
Patriot

Conference championship watch

Boston (19-8) (12-2) RPI 90 SoS 189
American (15-10) (11-3) RPI 153 SoS 263
Holy Cross (16-10) (10-4) RPI 119 SoS 210

Boston won at Maryland and Quinnipiac and UC Irvine.  You could do a LOT worse as an AQ team.  The other contenders have done little OOC, so everyone in the Patriot should hope for Boston to represent them.

No postseason
Army, Bucknell, Lehigh, Loyola(MD), Navy, Lafayette, Colgate - the first 3 could still crawl over .500 to get a postseason bid or two


SEC

Lockbox

Florida (23-2) (12-0) RPI 4 SoS 22
Vital signs:  9-2 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 11-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 119/16
Quality wins:  Kansas, @Kentucky, N-Memphis, Mizzou/Tenn/Richmond at home?  oh, swept UT
Bad losses:  I suppose @UConn, if you want a 1 seed
I still wish there were more depth of quality wins here, but the SEC has failed them in that respect.  They're pretty clearly on the 1 line, though.  It's just a question on how many can catch them (and a few can).

Kentucky (19-6) (9-3) RPI 12 SoS 5
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 12, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 11-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 120/40
Quality wins:  Louisville, @Mizzou, Tennessee, N-Provi
Bad losses:  I guess @Arkansas, @LSU?  @Baylor?
They really needed the SEC to be better to provide quality win chances.  Obviously safe for the tournament, but they're not going to get the seed they were hoping for.  I would suggest curbstomping the rest of the SEC to be safe.

Bubble

Tennessee (14-10) (6-6) RPI 53 SoS 11
Vital signs:  4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 40, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 6-9 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 146/48
Quality wins:  Virginia, N-Xavier, Ole Miss, @LSU?  eh
Bad losses:  Texas A&M, @Vandy, N-UTEP?
Still #3 overall in profile value in the SEC, but my goodness.  Things are getting dicey in this conference.  This isn't even that strong compared to other conference, but within the SEC, it's a gold mine of profile value.  I have no idea what to do with this entire conference as a whole.

Missouri (18-7) (6-6) RPI 39 SoS 55
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 114, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 7-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 138/62
Quality wins:  UCLA, @NC St?  Tennessee?  WVU?
Bad losses:  Georgia, N-Illinois, @Vandy?
With the mess in this SEC bubble situation, the non-con win over UCLA might be able to differentiate them from the rest.  But given how bad this conference is, is .500 SEC play going to end up being anywhere near good enough?  Nope.  Just win win win.

Arkansas (16-9) (5-7) RPI 72 SoS 66
Vital signs:  2-7 R/N, non-con SoS 159, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 170/56
Quality wins:  Kentucky, SMU, N-Minny, LSU, Clemson
Bad losses:  @A&M, @Georgia
They actually have enough home/neutral results to stay on the bubble.  However, that road record should clearly identify the issue here.  Get some road wins.  Get some wins in general.  There's actually time to salvage this particular profile.

LSU (15-9) (6-6) RPI 71 SoS 76
Vital signs:  4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 147/85
Quality wins:  Kentucky, Missouri, N-St Joe's
Bad losses:  Rhode Island, @A&M, @Bama, @Georgia
Kind of the same situation as Arkansas, instead maybe this profile is slightly worse in the non-con.  You could argue in the ordering of Arkansas/LSU/Ole Miss in the bubble hierarchy.  Putting one in over the other two would feel like splitting hairs at this point.

Ole Miss (16-9) (7-5) RPI 70 SoS 86
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 107, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 171/75
Quality wins:  Mizzou, LSU, MTSU?
Bad losses:  @Miss. St, @Bama, @Georgia
This is a profile on the brink now.  Need quality wins, and in a hurry.  Chances will be there down the stretch.

NIT watch
Georgia (14-10) (8-4) RPI 95 SoS 79 - 3rd in the conference.  Do they deserve a bubble look?  They did nothing OOC, but have piled up wins over teams listed in the bubble section above.  But there's way too many dents in the non-con, and no top-end win to support this resume
Vanderbilt (14-10) (6-6) RPI 88 SoS 74 - see Georgia comments, minus the 8-4 SEC mark

EIEIO watch
Texas A&M (14-11) (5-7) RPI 136 SoS 110

No postseason
Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi St, South Carolina - a couple of these might finish >,500, but I don't care
SoCon

Conference championship watch

Davidson (14-11) (11-1) RPI 146 SoS 179
Chattanooga (13-11) (10-2) RPI 216 SoS 317

Davidson did win N-Georgia and @Charlotte, and is the only hope for this conference to realistically escape Dayton.  Still, this isn't your typical strong Davidson team.  I could easily list Elon or Wofford in this category as well, but Davidson probably isn't slipping.

EIEIO watch
Wofford (12-10) (9-3) RPI 179 SoS 261
Elon (13-10) (8-3) RPI 162 SoS 200
Western Carolina (12-12) (8-4) RPI 238 SoS 300

No postseason
UNC-Greensboro, Samford, Georgia Southern, Appalachian St, Furman, Citadel
Southland

NIT watch
Stephen F Austin (22-2) (13-0) RPI 75 SoS 320 - the signature non-con win is Towson, and the conference is bad.  Please don't get carried away, folks.

EIEIO watch
Sam Houston St (15-6) (10-3) RPI 114 SoS 259 - behind this, I'm not projecting any other postseason teams out of this conference.  TAMU-CC is 10-4 but under .500 overall.  NW State is at .500, but nah.  UNO and IW are ineligible.  Someone could qualify for the CIT but I won't bother.

No postseason
TAMU-CC, *Incarnate Word, Northwestern St, *New Orleans, Oral Roberts, Nicholls St, SE Louisiana, McNeese St, Central Arkansas, *Abilene Christian, Lamar, Houston Baptist
Summit

NIT watch

North Dakota St (17-6) (9-2) RPI 48 SoS 121 - should I list them on the bubble?  Only top 100 win is Delaware, so no.  But it's worth exploring

EIEIO watch
South Dakota St (13-10) (8-3) RPI 145 SoS 227
IPFW (16-9) (7-4) RPI 147 SoS 265
Denver (12-12) (6-4) RPI 149 SoS 122

No postseason
*Omaha, South Dakota, Western Illinois, IUPUI
SWAC

Conference championship watch

Southern (11-11) (10-2) RPI 190 SoS 254
Alabama St (11-9) (8-4) RPI 262 SoS 351

I'm not wasting my time on this conference.

No postseason
Alabama A&M, *Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Texas Southern, Prairie View A&M, Alcorn St, Jackson St, *Mississippi Valley St, *Grambling
Sun Belt

Conference championship watch

Georgia St (15-7) (10-1) RPI 98 SoS 245
Western Kentucky (16-9) (9-4) RPI 139 SoS 205

WKU beat Southern Miss, but that's the only notable result among the top 2 teams, or the rest of the conference, really.  I think the champ will straddle the 15/16 line, unless it's Georgia St with their shiny record.  However, GSU's profile is pretty marginal, even for a Sun Belt team.

EIEIO watch
La-Lafayette (14-9) (8-5) RPI 134 SoS 222 - well they did win at LaTech
Arkansas St (14-9) (7-5) RPI 174 SoS 290

No postseason
Arkansas-Little Rock, Texas-Arlington, La-Monroe, Troy, Texas St, South Alabama
WCC

Bubble

Gonzaga (22-4) (13-1) RPI 21 SoS 90
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 64, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 142/72
Quality wins:  BYU, St Mary's, @WVU, N-Arkansas?
Bad losses:  @Portland
Just look at the wins and losses.  This should be a bubble team.  I can't sugarcoat it.  The good news is the solid SoS and general bad loss avoidance, so they should be fine.  But they can't have lock designation anymore.

BYU (17-10) (10-5) RPI 41 SoS 27
Vital signs:  6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 6, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 139/77
Quality wins:  N-Texas, @Stanford, sweep of St Mary's
Bad losses:  @LMU, @Portland, @Pepperdine, @everywhere apparently
That non-con SoS is saving their bacon.  Those 2 quality wins can't hold everything together if they keep losing on the road in conference play, though.  I think they're out of mulligans.  Also, the committee rewards scheduling up, so they can still go either way on this one.  One of the toughest cases on the board.

NIT watch
St Mary's (18-8) (9-5) RPI 59 SoS 87 - just can't justify a bubble spot at the moment
San Francisco (14-10) (9-5) RPI 87 SoS 82

EIEIO watch
Portland (15-11) (7-7) RPI 159 SoS 153
Pepperdine (13-13) (7-8) RPI 135 SoS 115
Pacific (13-11) (5-9) RPI 111 SoS 111

No postseason
San Diego, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount
WAC

Conference championship watch

Utah Valley (13-9) (9-2) RPI 155 SOS 247
New Mexico St (19-8) (9-3) RPI 79 SoS 164

Everyone in the conference who isn't NMSU has a garbage resume, for the record.  NMSU swept UTEP and won at New Mexico, so there.

No postseason
*Grand Canyon, Chicago St, Seattle, Cal St-Bakersfield, UMKC, Idaho, Texas-Pan American - well Seattle is .500 so if the CIT needs a western team...

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