Lockbox:
Kansas (19-5) (8-3) RPI 6 SoS 1
Vital signs:
8-1 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 9
avg RPI win 82
8-2 vs. Group 1
5-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Kentucky, @WVU, TTU
Bad losses: home to Arizona St and Washington and Okla St and what the hell is going on
So weird. Looking at the SoS and the Group 1 wins and the road record and you assume it's a 1 seed, no questions asked. But those catastrophic home losses. I still think they get the benefit of the doubt if they eventually are able to put "Big 12 champ" on their resume. Especially with that avg RPI win metric, which is historically high.
Texas Tech (20-4) (8-3) RPI 13 SoS 55
Vital signs:
5-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 196
avg RPI win 137
5-3 vs. Group 1
5-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Nevada, @Kansas, WVU, @TCU
Bad losses: @Iowa St perhaps
Didn't play a true road game in the non-con. However, they're .500 on the road in Big 12 play, which helps mask that flaw. Non-con SoS was actually in worse shape than that, but it's out of the danger zone. And most importantly, they're winning in-conference. This would be a much different story if they weren't poaching their fair share of quality wins and were hovering around .500 in conference.
West Virginia (18-6) (7-4) RPI 25 SoS 36
Vital signs:
7-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 189
avg RPI win 148
5-5 vs. Group 1
5-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Virginia, swept Oklahoma, N-Missouri?
Bad losses: @Iowa St
There's some cupcakes really submarining the non-con SoS into marginal territory. Their losses are mostly reasonable minus the ISU thing, as they've lost most of their biggest games. But on the other hand, they got the Virginia game, so some of those resume flaws are masked. Their ceiling is limited as a result of being merely .500 against Group 1, but a protected seed should be attainable for them.
Oklahoma (16-7) (6-5) RPI 17 SoS 14
Vital signs:
5-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 82
avg RPI win 113
5-6 vs. Group 1
3-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Wichita St, swept TCU, Kansas and TTU
Bad losses: @Okla St, @K-State?
Safely in the tournament but seed upside is limited. They've had a lot of swing games and have won their fair share...but have also lost their fair share. 2-5 in true road games is a little bit of an issue here. That'll keep them off the 2 line for now.
Bubble:
TCU (16-8) (4-7) RPI 31 SoS 16
Vital signs:
5-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 70
avg RPI win 127
4-7 vs. Group 1
2-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Nevada, WVU, SMU?
Bad losses: @Vandy
Should probably be okay. But they're losing most their swing games in the Big 12, beating the teams they're supposed to and losing to the better ones (with WVU being their counter-result). That's mildly concerning, and now factor in that they didn't play a true road game in the non-con. The good news is the SoS numbers are good enough and that Nevada win is holding up for now.
Texas (15-9) (5-6) RPI 46 SoS 17
Vital signs:
4-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 77
avg RPI win 132
4-6 vs. Group 1
3-3 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Butler, @Alabama, TTU and Oklahoma
Bad losses: K-State at home? @Okla St?
Honestly don't have much to say here. Every metric is in good but not great shape. They've won just enough over teams just good enough to feel safe.
Kansas St (17-7) (6-5) RPI 59 SoS 85
Vital signs:
6-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 326
avg RPI win 163
3-6 vs. Group 1
4-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Texas, TCU, Oklahoma
Bad losses: N-Tulsa
That non-con SoS is going to be an albatross. They're going to need to get a higher-end win than any they already have as a result.
The other 3 teams are off the board. All have simply accumulated too many losses. Oklahoma St actually has a good collection of wins, but their non-con SoS is getting sunk by some very costly cupcakes. If they get from 4-7 back to .500 in the conference, the wins it would take would be very notable, and they'd be back on the bubble then. 3-8 vs. Group 1 right now.
Baylor has simply lost all their swing games in the conference. 1 Group 1 win is not enough.
Friday, February 9, 2018
Thursday, February 8, 2018
2/7 recap
I want you to sit down. Find a stable chair. Get comfy. Make sure no fragile objects are around you. I want you to absorb this madness, this ridiculousness, as safely as possible. Our world has been torn asunder:
St John's 79, @Villanova 75
WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS
...okay, that's out of the way. Let's get to the rest:
Ohio St 64, @Purdue 63
@Virginia 59, Florida St 55 - all of a sudden, Virginia's path to the #1 overall seed has been thrown wide open. And they get a quality road win in itself on the same day. Purdue and Nova are safe on the 1 line, so don't worry about them. And there's the Ohio St angle, they pick up the most signature of signature wins and are right in play for the 2 line, believe it or not
Marquette 88, @Seton Hall 85 - for bubble teams, nothing is as good an elixir as a road win over a tournament team
Creighton 76, @DePaul 75
@Miami 87, Wake Forest 81
@Virginia Tech 85, NC State 75
@Texas Tech 76, Iowa St 58
Kansas St 67, @Texas 64 - K-State isn't dead yet....and Texas just got yanked from safety back onto the bubble
Texas A&M 81, @Auburn 80 - looks like A&M is all the way back to resume normalcy. Auburn might have lost touch with the 1 line but are still in decent shape for the 2
@Florida 73, LSU 64
@Vanderbilt 81, Georgia 66 - the very wide bubble in the SEC means there will be a couple early casaulties...and it looks like Georgia is one
@Penn St 74, Maryland 70 - yeesh, I regret even putting mild faith into this Maryland team
@Temple 90, East Carolina 73
@St Bonaventure 79, St Louis 56
UNLV 86, @Nevada 78 - you really don't want to spend some of these losses on home games, Nevada. Still in good shape, but that's one less mulligan in their pocket
St John's 79, @Villanova 75
WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS
...okay, that's out of the way. Let's get to the rest:
Ohio St 64, @Purdue 63
@Virginia 59, Florida St 55 - all of a sudden, Virginia's path to the #1 overall seed has been thrown wide open. And they get a quality road win in itself on the same day. Purdue and Nova are safe on the 1 line, so don't worry about them. And there's the Ohio St angle, they pick up the most signature of signature wins and are right in play for the 2 line, believe it or not
Marquette 88, @Seton Hall 85 - for bubble teams, nothing is as good an elixir as a road win over a tournament team
Creighton 76, @DePaul 75
@Miami 87, Wake Forest 81
@Virginia Tech 85, NC State 75
@Texas Tech 76, Iowa St 58
Kansas St 67, @Texas 64 - K-State isn't dead yet....and Texas just got yanked from safety back onto the bubble
Texas A&M 81, @Auburn 80 - looks like A&M is all the way back to resume normalcy. Auburn might have lost touch with the 1 line but are still in decent shape for the 2
@Florida 73, LSU 64
@Vanderbilt 81, Georgia 66 - the very wide bubble in the SEC means there will be a couple early casaulties...and it looks like Georgia is one
@Penn St 74, Maryland 70 - yeesh, I regret even putting mild faith into this Maryland team
@Temple 90, East Carolina 73
@St Bonaventure 79, St Louis 56
UNLV 86, @Nevada 78 - you really don't want to spend some of these losses on home games, Nevada. Still in good shape, but that's one less mulligan in their pocket
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Bubble watch part 4 (SEC resurgence edition)
I can't believe this conference reformed themselves. Until at least the inevitable Bruce Pearl scandal surfaces.
Lockbox:
Auburn (21-3) (9-2) RPI 9 SoS 39
Vital signs:
9-2 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 82
avg RPI win 120
4-3 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Tennessee, N-MTSU, @Missou?
Bad losses: N-Temple perhaps
I can't quite make the case for the 1 line yet. The non-con SoS is more a product of bad team avoidance than actually scheduling up well. 2nd best win the non-con might be @Dayton or @Murray St. So I can't endorse the 1 line, at least yet. There's a fair bit of substance still to come in the SEC schedule, so winning the SEC might yet get them to the 1 line, but let's slow our roll for now.
Tennessee (18-5) (8-3) RPI 10 SoS 14
Vital signs:
8-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 21
avg RPI win 108
5-5 vs. Group 1
4-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Purdue, swept Kentucky, A&M?
Bad losses: none, honestly
This is a profile that's closer to the 1 line, IMO, although Auburn is currently ahead of them on the S-Curve. Higher end wins, and the losses are perfectly fine (Nova, UNC, @Arky and Mizzou). Only issue is they're kind of out of signature win chances, so they will be in service hold mode for awhile here.
Kentucky (17-7) (6-5) RPI 17 SoS 7
Vital signs:
4-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 7
avg RPI win 106
2-5 vs. Group 1
8-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: A&M and @WVU are the best
Bad losses: @South Carolina, probably
UK will get a better seed than most think - that SoS is a magic bullet, and 10 Group 1/2 wins are a very solid amount. They have what I often refer to as a nice pocket collection of wins. Add up all the loose change in their pocket, and they can use it to move up a seed line or two. Plenty of signature win chances lurk as well.
Bubble
Florida (16-8) (7-4) RPI 48 SoS 28
Vital signs:
6-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 35
avg RPI win 122
5-3 vs. Group 1
4-5 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Gonzaga, N-Cincy, @Kentucky, a couple roadies
Bad losses: @Ole Miss, South Carolina
They'll probably be fine, but the raw number of losses is a mild concern. Especially since a couple of their losses are a bit loose right now. Some of these road losses are concerning (Loyola, FSU, Bama, etc). Every single one is reasonable in a vacuum, but it's the combination that's devastating.
Arkansas (16-8) (5-6) RPI 36 SoS 34
Vital signs:
4-7 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 79
avg RPI win 125
4-6 vs. Group 1
1-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mizzou?
Bad losses: @Miss St, @LSU?
A classic bubble resume. One or two signature wins, poor but not awful road record with a couple marginal losses in there, solid SoS numbers and a general capability to be good but not great.
Missouri (15-8) (6-5) RPI 30 SoS 19
Vital signs:
6-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 64
avg RPI win 109
5-6 vs. Group 1
3-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Tennessee, @Bama, Kentucky
Bad losses: N-Illinois
We have to be honest: that non-con SoS is fraudulent. It's got wins over the likes of St John's, Wagner, Utah, Iowa St and UCF, all of which play a lot better with the computers than they should. Just about every metric is a little better than they should be, given the computer ranking of their opponents. This just means that a profile that looks like a lock to the computers isn't quite as safe, although I'll be surprised if they don't at least hold onto a bid from this position.
Texas A&M (16-8) (5-6) RPI 20 SoS 5
Vital signs:
5-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 12
avg RPI win 108
5-5 vs. Group 1
3-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-WVU, @USC, @Auburn
Bad losses: swept by LSU!
Okay, they should be fine after a swoon. The start of the SEC (@Bama, @UK, @Tennessee) turned out to be nastier than most realized. That LSU thing is concerning, but now that they're out of the abyss, there's enough profile strength to carry them. Note the SoS numbers and the other peripherals look fine.
Alabama (15-9) (6-5) RPI 42 SoS 16
Vital signs:
5-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 22
avg RPI win 100
5-4 vs. Group 1
4-4 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: URI, A&M, Auburn, @Florida, Oklahoma
Bad losses: @Vandy, @MSU, N-Minnesota
A profile that would be in great shape with 1 or 2 less silly losses. As is, the rest of their season should be more about bad loss avoidance, as they should have enough high-end wins to make it. Of course, the SEC is filled with a few traps this year so easier said than done. Home holds would be more than enough for them.
Off the bubble:
Mississippi St seems like a team to put on the list, right? 17-6 (6-5), RPI 54 SoS 96. Good. But....1 true road wins. They are home court heroes, all their wins of consequence are home wins (@South Carolina is their only Group 1 win). Non-con SoS is 300 on the note. With 8 teams above them in the resume pecking order, they're in trouble. Even worse for them, signature win chances are dwindling.
I could look silly not doing a full profile for Georgia right now. N-St Mary's and Florida are the signature wins, but 4-7 in conference with a merely middling non-con SoS of 161 leaves them here for now.
LSU and South Carolina both could merit long looks if they start winning, but their resumes are at the point where the raw number of losses are becoming a big problem. But if they get hot, there is definitely some substance in the resumes to work with.
Lockbox:
Auburn (21-3) (9-2) RPI 9 SoS 39
Vital signs:
9-2 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 82
avg RPI win 120
4-3 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Tennessee, N-MTSU, @Missou?
Bad losses: N-Temple perhaps
I can't quite make the case for the 1 line yet. The non-con SoS is more a product of bad team avoidance than actually scheduling up well. 2nd best win the non-con might be @Dayton or @Murray St. So I can't endorse the 1 line, at least yet. There's a fair bit of substance still to come in the SEC schedule, so winning the SEC might yet get them to the 1 line, but let's slow our roll for now.
Tennessee (18-5) (8-3) RPI 10 SoS 14
Vital signs:
8-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 21
avg RPI win 108
5-5 vs. Group 1
4-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Purdue, swept Kentucky, A&M?
Bad losses: none, honestly
This is a profile that's closer to the 1 line, IMO, although Auburn is currently ahead of them on the S-Curve. Higher end wins, and the losses are perfectly fine (Nova, UNC, @Arky and Mizzou). Only issue is they're kind of out of signature win chances, so they will be in service hold mode for awhile here.
Kentucky (17-7) (6-5) RPI 17 SoS 7
Vital signs:
4-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 7
avg RPI win 106
2-5 vs. Group 1
8-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: A&M and @WVU are the best
Bad losses: @South Carolina, probably
UK will get a better seed than most think - that SoS is a magic bullet, and 10 Group 1/2 wins are a very solid amount. They have what I often refer to as a nice pocket collection of wins. Add up all the loose change in their pocket, and they can use it to move up a seed line or two. Plenty of signature win chances lurk as well.
Bubble
Florida (16-8) (7-4) RPI 48 SoS 28
Vital signs:
6-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 35
avg RPI win 122
5-3 vs. Group 1
4-5 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Gonzaga, N-Cincy, @Kentucky, a couple roadies
Bad losses: @Ole Miss, South Carolina
They'll probably be fine, but the raw number of losses is a mild concern. Especially since a couple of their losses are a bit loose right now. Some of these road losses are concerning (Loyola, FSU, Bama, etc). Every single one is reasonable in a vacuum, but it's the combination that's devastating.
Arkansas (16-8) (5-6) RPI 36 SoS 34
Vital signs:
4-7 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 79
avg RPI win 125
4-6 vs. Group 1
1-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mizzou?
Bad losses: @Miss St, @LSU?
A classic bubble resume. One or two signature wins, poor but not awful road record with a couple marginal losses in there, solid SoS numbers and a general capability to be good but not great.
Missouri (15-8) (6-5) RPI 30 SoS 19
Vital signs:
6-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 64
avg RPI win 109
5-6 vs. Group 1
3-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Tennessee, @Bama, Kentucky
Bad losses: N-Illinois
We have to be honest: that non-con SoS is fraudulent. It's got wins over the likes of St John's, Wagner, Utah, Iowa St and UCF, all of which play a lot better with the computers than they should. Just about every metric is a little better than they should be, given the computer ranking of their opponents. This just means that a profile that looks like a lock to the computers isn't quite as safe, although I'll be surprised if they don't at least hold onto a bid from this position.
Texas A&M (16-8) (5-6) RPI 20 SoS 5
Vital signs:
5-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 12
avg RPI win 108
5-5 vs. Group 1
3-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-WVU, @USC, @Auburn
Bad losses: swept by LSU!
Okay, they should be fine after a swoon. The start of the SEC (@Bama, @UK, @Tennessee) turned out to be nastier than most realized. That LSU thing is concerning, but now that they're out of the abyss, there's enough profile strength to carry them. Note the SoS numbers and the other peripherals look fine.
Alabama (15-9) (6-5) RPI 42 SoS 16
Vital signs:
5-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 22
avg RPI win 100
5-4 vs. Group 1
4-4 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: URI, A&M, Auburn, @Florida, Oklahoma
Bad losses: @Vandy, @MSU, N-Minnesota
A profile that would be in great shape with 1 or 2 less silly losses. As is, the rest of their season should be more about bad loss avoidance, as they should have enough high-end wins to make it. Of course, the SEC is filled with a few traps this year so easier said than done. Home holds would be more than enough for them.
Off the bubble:
Mississippi St seems like a team to put on the list, right? 17-6 (6-5), RPI 54 SoS 96. Good. But....1 true road wins. They are home court heroes, all their wins of consequence are home wins (@South Carolina is their only Group 1 win). Non-con SoS is 300 on the note. With 8 teams above them in the resume pecking order, they're in trouble. Even worse for them, signature win chances are dwindling.
I could look silly not doing a full profile for Georgia right now. N-St Mary's and Florida are the signature wins, but 4-7 in conference with a merely middling non-con SoS of 161 leaves them here for now.
LSU and South Carolina both could merit long looks if they start winning, but their resumes are at the point where the raw number of losses are becoming a big problem. But if they get hot, there is definitely some substance in the resumes to work with.
2/6 recap
Michigan St 96, @Iowa 93 - cutting it close there, Izzo
@Northwestern 61, Michigan 52 - not a loss you want to absorb too many more of
Nebraska 91, @Minnesota 85
Tennessee 61, @Kentucky 59 - road wins are never trivial. UT has separated with Auburn to get away from the rest of the SEC on the seed lines
@Arkansas 81, South Carolina 65 - USC is probably running out of time
@Mississippi St 67, Alabama 63 - MSU is starting to be pretty annoying to the rest of the SEC. No at-large chances, but they're mucking things up in the conference standings
Missouri 75, @Ole Miss 69
@Kansas 71, TCU 64
Baylor 67, @Oklahoma St 56 - probably a fatal blow to OSU. Gotta hold in these types of home games
Notre Dame 96, @Boston College 85
Xavier 98, @Butler 93 (OT) - the type of wins that keep you on the 2 line
@Providence 73, Georgetown 69
@Cincinnati 77, UCF 40
Wichita St 85, @Memphis 65
Boise St 73, @New Mexico 71
Buffalo 88, @Central Michigan 82
@Davidson 91, St Joseph's 62 - for those who care, seems like Davidson has been identified as your 2nd best A-10 team now
@Northwestern 61, Michigan 52 - not a loss you want to absorb too many more of
Nebraska 91, @Minnesota 85
Tennessee 61, @Kentucky 59 - road wins are never trivial. UT has separated with Auburn to get away from the rest of the SEC on the seed lines
@Arkansas 81, South Carolina 65 - USC is probably running out of time
@Mississippi St 67, Alabama 63 - MSU is starting to be pretty annoying to the rest of the SEC. No at-large chances, but they're mucking things up in the conference standings
Missouri 75, @Ole Miss 69
@Kansas 71, TCU 64
Baylor 67, @Oklahoma St 56 - probably a fatal blow to OSU. Gotta hold in these types of home games
Notre Dame 96, @Boston College 85
Xavier 98, @Butler 93 (OT) - the type of wins that keep you on the 2 line
@Providence 73, Georgetown 69
@Cincinnati 77, UCF 40
Wichita St 85, @Memphis 65
Boise St 73, @New Mexico 71
Buffalo 88, @Central Michigan 82
@Davidson 91, St Joseph's 62 - for those who care, seems like Davidson has been identified as your 2nd best A-10 team now
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Bubble watch part 3 (ACC edition)
Lockbox:
Virginia (22-1) (11-0) RPI 1 SoS 16
Vital signs:
8-1 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 77
avg RPI win 107
6-1 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Duke, UNC, Clemson, N-URI, etc etc
Bad losses: none
No need to elaborate on this profile.
Duke (19-4) (7-3) RPI 7 SoS 23
Vital signs:
8-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 17
avg RPI win 111
4-2 vs. Group 1
3-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Michigan St, @Miami, N-Florida
Bad losses: @St John's, @BC?
It'll be tough to get a 1 seed if those record against Group 1 and Group 2 keep the same ratio. All other aspects of the profile are plenty fine, with the probable exception of being just 4-3 in true road games. They'll need to lift that slightly.
Clemson (19-4) (8-3) RPI 4 SoS 12
Vital signs:
7-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 52
avg RPI win 112
4-4 vs. Group 1
6-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Ohio St, @Florida, UNC, Miami
Bad losses: N-Temple, but who the hell knows with them these days
This is a very Duke-ish profile, right down to the 4-3 road record. Solid group of wins. All the losses are reasonable, give or take an NC State on the road. No losses outside Group 1.
North Carolina (17-7) (6-5) RPI 11 SoS 4
Vital signs: 7-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 6
avg RPI win 102
4-5 vs. Group 1
4-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Tennessee, Clemson, N-Ohio St
Bad losses: NC State at home perhaps, Wofford!
The damage is probably now done in order to get a 1 seed, but I'd like to point out that they have a staggering 6 (SIX!) Group 1 games still on the schedule. This profile can change rapidly, so pay attention going forward.
Bubble:
Miami (17-5) (6-4) RPI 18 SoS 44
Vital signs:
9-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 127
avg RPI win 156
3-4 vs. Group 1
3-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Middle Tennessee in Diamond Head might be the best?
Bad losses: @Ga Tech
A merely okay non-con that featured a loss to New Mexico St (isn't that bad). Their best ACC wins so far are Louisville at home, NC State and Va Tech on the road. Not bad, but by the end of the season, most bubble teams will be able to show those types of wins in their resume. They'll need to add something more substantial by the end of the year. Miami wins the Eff You award from the scheduling gods this year, only getting Duke, UVa, UNC, and Clemson once apiece, which really puts pressure to hold the fort in the other games.
Syracuse (16-8) (5-6) RPI 43 SoS 24
Vital signs:
4-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 22
avg RPI win 130
1-4 vs. Group 1
5-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Louisville, Buffalo? Va Tech?
Bad losses: @Wake perhaps, home to Notre Dame, @Ga Tech!
Thank god for that Louisville win, because otherwise the profile is very lean at the moment. They'll have quality wins chances coming up, and they'll need to cash in a couple. Good news is the SoS is a boon at the moment, but the non-con wins (Maryland, UConn, Georgetown) aren't holding up well, and a loss at home to Bonaventure stings.
Virginia Tech (16-7) (5-5) RPI 67 SoS 93
Vital signs:
5-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 286
avg RPI win 179
2-5 vs. Group 1
4-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: UNC, N-Washington?
Bad losses: N-St Louis
Uh oh, that non-con SoS. That is usually accompanied by a lack of depth of quality wins. A problem that is fixable in the near future. The schedule is backloaded with signature win chances everywhere, so buckle in. This profile isn't close to being complete yet.
Florida St (17-6) (6-5) RPI 41 SoS 70
Vital signs:
7-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 299
avg RPI win 162
5-2 vs. Group 1
1-4 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: UNC, Miami, @Louisville, @Florida
Bad losses: @Wake, @BC
More non-con SoS madness! At least they've got something in conference to lean on for the time being, as well as the weird 4-1 vs. Group 1 mark. This is your garden variety 8/9 seed resume at the moment that can easily swing in either direction. The schedule is manageable down the stretch, if they win the games they should they'll be fine.
NC State (16-7) (6-4) RPI 63 SoS 71
Vital signs:
3-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 292
avg RPI win 177
4-4 vs. Group 1
0-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Arizona, Duke, Clemson, @UNC
Bad losses: Greensboro at home, N-UNI
How can someone who plays in the Battle 4 Atlantis have a non-con SoS of 292? How? A ridiculous cavalcade of cupcakes. The good news is that when you have high-end wins this high, you can survive it. All they honestly really need to do is win the games they're supposed to. Tougher to do than say, because most of the schedule is traps (roadies at worse teams, home games against fellow bubble teams).
Louisville (16-8) (6-5) RPI 42 SoS 20
Vital signs: 3-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 59
avg RPI win 155
1-6 vs. Group 1
2-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @FSU, um
Bad losses: none, surprisingly
The classic good bad team. Beat just about everyone they're supposed to. Worst losses are Syracuse and FSU at home. And they beat FSU on the road to balance that out. So, they just simply need to add quality wins to make the tournament. There's no other options there. Road games against bubblers and home games against kings coming up. So, they must get one, and preferably two or three to be safe.
Everyone else off the board:
Boston College has a non-con SoS approaching 300, and the win over Duke is great, but there's just no depth of wins in their resume.
Notre Dame has fallen off a cliff, which is a shame as the resume early on was good enough.
Virginia (22-1) (11-0) RPI 1 SoS 16
Vital signs:
8-1 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 77
avg RPI win 107
6-1 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Duke, UNC, Clemson, N-URI, etc etc
Bad losses: none
No need to elaborate on this profile.
Duke (19-4) (7-3) RPI 7 SoS 23
Vital signs:
8-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 17
avg RPI win 111
4-2 vs. Group 1
3-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Michigan St, @Miami, N-Florida
Bad losses: @St John's, @BC?
It'll be tough to get a 1 seed if those record against Group 1 and Group 2 keep the same ratio. All other aspects of the profile are plenty fine, with the probable exception of being just 4-3 in true road games. They'll need to lift that slightly.
Clemson (19-4) (8-3) RPI 4 SoS 12
Vital signs:
7-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 52
avg RPI win 112
4-4 vs. Group 1
6-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Ohio St, @Florida, UNC, Miami
Bad losses: N-Temple, but who the hell knows with them these days
This is a very Duke-ish profile, right down to the 4-3 road record. Solid group of wins. All the losses are reasonable, give or take an NC State on the road. No losses outside Group 1.
North Carolina (17-7) (6-5) RPI 11 SoS 4
Vital signs: 7-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 6
avg RPI win 102
4-5 vs. Group 1
4-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Tennessee, Clemson, N-Ohio St
Bad losses: NC State at home perhaps, Wofford!
The damage is probably now done in order to get a 1 seed, but I'd like to point out that they have a staggering 6 (SIX!) Group 1 games still on the schedule. This profile can change rapidly, so pay attention going forward.
Bubble:
Miami (17-5) (6-4) RPI 18 SoS 44
Vital signs:
9-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 127
avg RPI win 156
3-4 vs. Group 1
3-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Middle Tennessee in Diamond Head might be the best?
Bad losses: @Ga Tech
A merely okay non-con that featured a loss to New Mexico St (isn't that bad). Their best ACC wins so far are Louisville at home, NC State and Va Tech on the road. Not bad, but by the end of the season, most bubble teams will be able to show those types of wins in their resume. They'll need to add something more substantial by the end of the year. Miami wins the Eff You award from the scheduling gods this year, only getting Duke, UVa, UNC, and Clemson once apiece, which really puts pressure to hold the fort in the other games.
Syracuse (16-8) (5-6) RPI 43 SoS 24
Vital signs:
4-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 22
avg RPI win 130
1-4 vs. Group 1
5-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Louisville, Buffalo? Va Tech?
Bad losses: @Wake perhaps, home to Notre Dame, @Ga Tech!
Thank god for that Louisville win, because otherwise the profile is very lean at the moment. They'll have quality wins chances coming up, and they'll need to cash in a couple. Good news is the SoS is a boon at the moment, but the non-con wins (Maryland, UConn, Georgetown) aren't holding up well, and a loss at home to Bonaventure stings.
Virginia Tech (16-7) (5-5) RPI 67 SoS 93
Vital signs:
5-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 286
avg RPI win 179
2-5 vs. Group 1
4-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: UNC, N-Washington?
Bad losses: N-St Louis
Uh oh, that non-con SoS. That is usually accompanied by a lack of depth of quality wins. A problem that is fixable in the near future. The schedule is backloaded with signature win chances everywhere, so buckle in. This profile isn't close to being complete yet.
Florida St (17-6) (6-5) RPI 41 SoS 70
Vital signs:
7-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 299
avg RPI win 162
5-2 vs. Group 1
1-4 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: UNC, Miami, @Louisville, @Florida
Bad losses: @Wake, @BC
More non-con SoS madness! At least they've got something in conference to lean on for the time being, as well as the weird 4-1 vs. Group 1 mark. This is your garden variety 8/9 seed resume at the moment that can easily swing in either direction. The schedule is manageable down the stretch, if they win the games they should they'll be fine.
NC State (16-7) (6-4) RPI 63 SoS 71
Vital signs:
3-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 292
avg RPI win 177
4-4 vs. Group 1
0-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Arizona, Duke, Clemson, @UNC
Bad losses: Greensboro at home, N-UNI
How can someone who plays in the Battle 4 Atlantis have a non-con SoS of 292? How? A ridiculous cavalcade of cupcakes. The good news is that when you have high-end wins this high, you can survive it. All they honestly really need to do is win the games they're supposed to. Tougher to do than say, because most of the schedule is traps (roadies at worse teams, home games against fellow bubble teams).
Louisville (16-8) (6-5) RPI 42 SoS 20
Vital signs: 3-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 59
avg RPI win 155
1-6 vs. Group 1
2-2 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @FSU, um
Bad losses: none, surprisingly
The classic good bad team. Beat just about everyone they're supposed to. Worst losses are Syracuse and FSU at home. And they beat FSU on the road to balance that out. So, they just simply need to add quality wins to make the tournament. There's no other options there. Road games against bubblers and home games against kings coming up. So, they must get one, and preferably two or three to be safe.
Everyone else off the board:
Boston College has a non-con SoS approaching 300, and the win over Duke is great, but there's just no depth of wins in their resume.
Notre Dame has fallen off a cliff, which is a shame as the resume early on was good enough.
2/5 recap
Syracuse 78, @Louisville 73 - road win!
West Virginia 75, @Oklahoma 73 - road win!
Indiana 65, @Rutgers 43 - road win. This was Rutgers. You get no exclamation point, Indiana
West Virginia 75, @Oklahoma 73 - road win!
Indiana 65, @Rutgers 43 - road win. This was Rutgers. You get no exclamation point, Indiana
Monday, February 5, 2018
Bubble watch part 2 (Big 10 fail tracker edition)
Oy.
Lockbox:
Purdue (23-2) (12-0) RPI 8 SoS 52
Vital signs:
9-2 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 82
avg RPI win 130
6-2 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Arizona, N-Butler, Louisville
Bad losses: I suppose N-WKU
The B1G will cost them a chance at the #1 overall seed by definition. Note the general lack of depth in their quality wins and the average RPI win. Can't get there with those numbers. In a stupid development, they play MSU only once this year. One final note: that loss in the Battle 4 Atlantis to Tennessee (that trapped them in the losers bracket) doesn't look so bad anymore.
Michigan St (22-3) (10-2) RPI 21 SoS 91
Vital signs:
8-2 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 237
avg RPI win 158
2-3 vs. Group 1
4-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-UNC, and, uh
Bad losses: I guess Michigan at home?
Ouch, that non-con SoS looky dicey. The PK80 gave them UNC, but UConn and DePaul have provided no nutritional value to the resume, and Notre Dame has tanked. Add it all up and Michigan St is in unusual SoS territory. Plus they lost their only game against Ohio St, and their only game against Michigan. They only get Purdue once. The SoS Gods are unleashing their fury at this time this year, this might be the unluckiest schedule top-to-bottom in the country. It's almost as if the karma gods are trying to punish this school for something that happened. As is they're fine because of the R/N record, but they're going to be stuck in service hold mode for the rest of the year.
Ohio St (20-5) (11-1) RPI 20 SoS 35
Vital signs:
6-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 34
avg RPI win 132
2-4 vs. Group 1
6-4 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Michigan St, Michigan
Bad losses: Penn St at home
The resume of a solid tournament team. They've mostly won the games they should and lost the games they should, with a flip flip of the Michigan St and Penn St results. They only get Purdue 1x this year, naturally (boy the scheduling gods punished this conference this year). Two chances at signature road wins (PU and UM) remain.
Bubble:
Michigan (18-6) (8-4) RPI 30 SoS 62
Vital signs:
5-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 232
avg RPI win 162
2-5 vs. Group 1
2-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Texas, @Michigan St
Bad losses: N-LSU?
When you go to Maui and get LSU, VCU in a down year, and Chaminade. Oof. And UCLA and Texas and UNC? How is this 232 overall in the non-con SoS? The cupcakes hurt more than usual. Right now they're in a very scary spot - marginal resume with little chance of an impact win coming up. Massive home game with OSU down the road.
Should be out:
Nebraska (17-8) (8-4) RPI 58 SoS 94 - only one Group 1 win (Michigan), only one Group 2 win (@Northwestern), and a non-con SoS of 262. And they're done with every team in legit NCAA contention, with just a home game against Maryland left to really make an impact. It's going to take something special to get there.
Maryland (15-9) (5-7) RPI 55 SoS 38 - non-con SoS approaching 200, only 1 win in either the first two groups (albeit against Butler). They do have some bullets left to add to that number (4 in total), but I wouldn't be optimistic
I'm not even sure others warrant mentioning right now. Presented without comment, I give you the non-con SoS ranking of other select teams in the conference:
Penn St 258
Minnesota 219
Indiana 185
Northwestern 234
Iowa 231
Wisconsin 109
Illinois 164
Rutgers 333
Holy mother of God!
Lockbox:
Purdue (23-2) (12-0) RPI 8 SoS 52
Vital signs:
9-2 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 82
avg RPI win 130
6-2 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Arizona, N-Butler, Louisville
Bad losses: I suppose N-WKU
The B1G will cost them a chance at the #1 overall seed by definition. Note the general lack of depth in their quality wins and the average RPI win. Can't get there with those numbers. In a stupid development, they play MSU only once this year. One final note: that loss in the Battle 4 Atlantis to Tennessee (that trapped them in the losers bracket) doesn't look so bad anymore.
Michigan St (22-3) (10-2) RPI 21 SoS 91
Vital signs:
8-2 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 237
avg RPI win 158
2-3 vs. Group 1
4-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-UNC, and, uh
Bad losses: I guess Michigan at home?
Ouch, that non-con SoS looky dicey. The PK80 gave them UNC, but UConn and DePaul have provided no nutritional value to the resume, and Notre Dame has tanked. Add it all up and Michigan St is in unusual SoS territory. Plus they lost their only game against Ohio St, and their only game against Michigan. They only get Purdue once. The SoS Gods are unleashing their fury at this time this year, this might be the unluckiest schedule top-to-bottom in the country. It's almost as if the karma gods are trying to punish this school for something that happened. As is they're fine because of the R/N record, but they're going to be stuck in service hold mode for the rest of the year.
Ohio St (20-5) (11-1) RPI 20 SoS 35
Vital signs:
6-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 34
avg RPI win 132
2-4 vs. Group 1
6-4 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Michigan St, Michigan
Bad losses: Penn St at home
The resume of a solid tournament team. They've mostly won the games they should and lost the games they should, with a flip flip of the Michigan St and Penn St results. They only get Purdue 1x this year, naturally (boy the scheduling gods punished this conference this year). Two chances at signature road wins (PU and UM) remain.
Bubble:
Michigan (18-6) (8-4) RPI 30 SoS 62
Vital signs:
5-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 232
avg RPI win 162
2-5 vs. Group 1
2-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: @Texas, @Michigan St
Bad losses: N-LSU?
When you go to Maui and get LSU, VCU in a down year, and Chaminade. Oof. And UCLA and Texas and UNC? How is this 232 overall in the non-con SoS? The cupcakes hurt more than usual. Right now they're in a very scary spot - marginal resume with little chance of an impact win coming up. Massive home game with OSU down the road.
Should be out:
Nebraska (17-8) (8-4) RPI 58 SoS 94 - only one Group 1 win (Michigan), only one Group 2 win (@Northwestern), and a non-con SoS of 262. And they're done with every team in legit NCAA contention, with just a home game against Maryland left to really make an impact. It's going to take something special to get there.
Maryland (15-9) (5-7) RPI 55 SoS 38 - non-con SoS approaching 200, only 1 win in either the first two groups (albeit against Butler). They do have some bullets left to add to that number (4 in total), but I wouldn't be optimistic
I'm not even sure others warrant mentioning right now. Presented without comment, I give you the non-con SoS ranking of other select teams in the conference:
Penn St 258
Minnesota 219
Indiana 185
Northwestern 234
Iowa 231
Wisconsin 109
Illinois 164
Rutgers 333
Holy mother of God!
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