Monday, March 8, 2021


Welcome to the Great Bracketology Experiment.  How do projections end up when you end up having to unfollow the entire college basketball season?  Let's find out.

I've finally got some time to look through this.  Not having a job all of a sudden helps with this.  Before March my life was pretty well full, with every moment not working spent dealing with one crisis or another.  So at least the gods picked the right month for me to lose my job.  Now I can hone in (hopefully) for a full week.

This is my first pass-through for seeding teams this year.  We're starting with 7 to go.  Given the amount of information I'm trying to absorb, I'm absolutely certain I'm going to miss some things.  Expect me to refine this list each day as I get closer to something I like on Sunday.

Some observations:

- To me, there's a clear top 4.  It doesn't seem like the race for the 1 line is all that tight this year?
- I like to think of this list in tiers.  To me, the top 17 is a tier.  Oklahoma St is much closer to the 3 line than they are to Colorado.
- Another guess I'm making is that the committee gets aggressive in seeding mid-majors.  I tempered my seed of SDSU and Loyola and Bonaventure...for now.
- I did take a peek at Bracket Matrix and breathed a sigh of relief.  I think I'm a couple seed lines off the consensus in a couple places, but I think I avoided doing something stupid on my first pass.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston
The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas
The 4 line:  Purdue, Virginia, USC, Texas
The 5 line:  Oklahoma St, Colorado, Florida St, Creighton
The 6 line:  Tennessee, Oregon, Texas Tech, Missouri
The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St
The 8 line:  Loyola, LSU, St Bonaventure, Rutgers
The 9 line:  Virginia Tech, UConn, Clemson, Oklahoma
The 10 line:  Maryland, UCLA, Louisville, VCU
The 11 line:  Georgia Tech, Michigan St, North Carolina, Wichita St
The 12 line:  Colorado St, St John's, Boise St, Drake, UNCG, Toledo
The 13 line:  UCSB, Western Kentucky, Siena, Liberty
The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Winthrop, Morehead St
The 15 line:  Cleveland St, Bryant, Grand Canyon, North Dakota St
The 16 line:  Hartford, Appalachian St, Nicholls St, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M, Drexel

Last 4 in:
Colorado St
St John's
Boise St

Last 4 out:
Utah St
Seton Hall

Next 4 out:
St Louis
Ole Miss


HenryMuto said...

Looks pretty good but I think Xavier is either one of the last couple in or first couple out not all the way out to the next 4 out.

I think Utah State is a little lower on the out page as of now they have only 3 quad 1+2 wins total and two quad 3+4 losses with 1 of them being quad 4.

I think Saint Louis is probably toast.

I think Saint John's is probably on the outside looking in I think they are right next to Xavier either 1 spot above or behind them.

I think Michigan is still over Illinois based on 3 losses to 6 losses I know Illinois looks better now but total resume.

Ohio State was actually the 4th #1 seed for about a month when they reeled off 7 straight wins the NCAA committee had Ohio State as a #1 seed and Iowa as a #4 seed just 3 weeks ago but Ohio State ending schedule was brutal Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa and Illinois and they had already won at Iowa and at Illinois so all they needed to do was split the final 4 and they would held #1 seed but they coughed up leads to MSU and Illinois in the final minutes and it cost them.

HenryMuto said...

Cleveland State !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My hometown team makes the tournament for the 3rd time ever!!!!!!!!!!

1986, 2009, 2021

I hope they can get up to a 14 seed but fear they will be a 15 seed because the NET hates them and hates the Horizon league except for Wright State.

Their RPI was around 62 last I checked before this win imagine if they still used RPI that be a 13 seed for sure.