Sunday, February 28, 2021

Bubble Watch: leftovers

Less leftovers than I thought.

Loyola (19-4) (16-2) NET 16 SoS 164
Vital signs:  1-2 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, 8-4 R/N
Signature wins:  @Drake, swept MSU?
Bad losses:  @Indiana St

A pretty classic beat-who-you're-supposed-to resume.  An alarming 11 Q4 wins, so it's a pretty light resume.  Is the NET ranking reliable in this instance?  I lean yes.  There's still a strong, strong road/neutral record to lean on.  This is a resume that certainly could miss the tournament, but this year causing problems with cutting the non-con short might save them.

Drake (22-3) (15-3) NET 41 SoS 261
Vital signs:  1-1 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2, 10-2 R/N
Signature wins:  Loyola, swept MSU?
Bad losses:  @Bradley and Valpo

Kinda in the same boat as LU, but without the NET boost and with horrendous SoS numbers.  That said, I lump them in the same bucket.  If they meet in the MVC finals, I reluctantly would put both in, but I'm not excited about either.

There's not much else to look at for at-large bids.  Things that caught my eye:

The SoCon had another good year overall it seems, but this time they don't have the at-large resumes to contend for multiple bids.

Colgate has a NET of 10.  lol.  Only because there's basically no non-conference games in the Patriot this year.  Navy and Colgate have separated in the league, and Navy did win at Georgetown.  No at-large bid for either, but a good solid seed should await for the winner.

I don't think anyone else is in play on the bubble.  Committee will use the shortened non-con as a shield, say no one from a mid-major conference has a resume good enough for an at-large bid, forgetting that no one had a chance to build up a resume good enough.

1 comment:

Bryan Wilson said...

NET might have some issues this season, but it's nothing compared to the RPI.

The Big 10 is an RPI massacre. Michigan is #1 but the second highest Big 10 in the RPI is Ohio St at #24. Iowa at #35, Rutgers at #73, Wisconsin at #77 LOL.

Meanwhile BYU at #6, Navy at #11 somehow even higher than Colgate #13. Wichita #17. UC Santa Barbara #20. Let's go back to that.