Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Bubble Watch: Pac-12

 Seems like the same old problem for the conference.  One elite team this time, but no depth whatsoever in this conference just kills all the bubble resumes in here.

USC (19-4) (13-3) NET 14 SoS 54
Vital signs:  3-2 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, 7-2 R/N
Signature wins;  N-BYU, @Arizona, @Stanford?
Bad losses:  @Oregon St

A very good road/neutral record will mask a lot of other problems.  I think winning a conference might matter a bit more this year, so I give them a reasonable chance of a top 4 seed, but without high-end impact wins, it's a tough sell when comparing them to other teams.  Seems like the Pac-12 is stuck where they've been the past few years.

Colorado (17-7) (11-6) NET 22 SoS 85
Vital signs:  2-4 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2, 9-6 R/N
Signature wins:  @USC, @Stanford, Arizona?
Bad losses:  3 Q3 losses, yeesh

If you took away the NET and looked at the rest....I mean they'd be in, but it wouldn't be pretty.  That road win at USC is getting so much mileage right now.  They actually have 6 road/neutral games in Q3/4 (going 4-2 in those), so I'm not going too crazy over 9 R/N wins right now.  Signature win chances remain though.  A chance to enhance the profile...or ruin it completely.  Not safe yet.

UCLA (16-5) (12-3) NET 41 SoS 109
Vital signs:  2-3 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 5-5 R/N
Signature wins:  Colorado, swept Arizona?
Bad losses:  @Wazzu?

Looks like a classic "beat the teams you're supposed to beat" resume, with a sweep over Arizona and a couple Q2A losses serving as the swing games.  They'll make the tournament but I'm not excited about this resume.  Quality win chances do remain, though.

Oregon (14-5) (9-4) NET 49 SoS 123
Vital signs:  2-3 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2, 5-3 R/N
Signature wins:  Colorado, @Arizona, N-SHU?
Bad losses:  Oregon St, Wazzu

Q3 losses mixed in with middling computer numbers isn't a good recipe.  Not the greatest collection of quality wins.  Pretty empty profile.  Not sure I see a single-digit seed here.  This team will probably be the difference between 3 bids and 4 bids for the conference.

Arizona (15-8) (9-8) NET 43 SoS 52
Vital signs:  2-3 vs. Q1, 3-5 vs. Q2, 5-4 R/N
Signature wins:  @USC, Colorado, uh
Bad losses:  Stanford, @Utah, etc

Without the USC win, they're probably off the board.  As is, I'll give them a shout for the moment.

Stanford (14-9) (10-7) NET 58 SoS 63
Vital signs:  4-5 vs. Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2, 12-7 R/N
Signature wins:  N-Alabama, N-UCLA, swept Arizona
Bad losses:  @ASU, @Wazzu, @Utah?

Only 4 home games on the season, which leads to this interesting breakdown.  Don't automatically get swept up by 12 road/neutral wins.  That said, 12-7 in road games is a clip well over .500, and the committee could fall in love with it.  They have the one high-end win against Bama.  Crazier things have happened.  I'm paying attention here.

1 comment:

Bryan Wilson said...

Arizona is ineligible for postseason this year