Wednesday, March 10, 2021


Well, I didn't even ask for it, but we're live on Bracket Matrix.  We're in it now, guys.

A reminder to new visitors:  I have been inactive this season due to health-related reasons and only started projections yesterday.  Haven't had a chance to follow the season, so my analysis is strictly resume-based.  I am operating on less knowledge.

Because of this, it's possible I'm missed some things in my first couple pass-throughs.  But we're continuing on as some sort of experiment.  See, I want to know how projections compare when the only information you have is the nitty gritty sheets.

Observations that I had while scrubbing yesterday:

- The Big 12 is an awkward conference to evaluate as a whole.  Tons of Q1 games in conference play were available, and their numbers seem to dwarf the numbers of all the teams around them.  I'm having a tough time guessing what the committee will do, comparing mid-pick Big 12 teams with ACC and Pac-12 champions, for example.
- If I were to guess where I'm wrong, it's the 5-6-7 lines.  Not much separating teams in my view.
- I have no good idea what's going to happen to mid-majors.  We just don't have the non-con data like we had in years past.  I just don't have a good sense on SDSU, Loyola, and Bonaventure yet.
- I'm not in love with 3 MWC teams inside the bubble right at the end, but I'm having trouble filling out the field.  Many of the teams I had right on the outside yesterday...sheesh there's some flawed resumes.  I did move up Xavier, but they're still out.  Road/neutral records still matter, I think.  So for today at least, Utah St gets the nod.
- A good example of scrubbing:  I decided to dock Clemson for having just 2 true road wins this year, then had to double take as I saw everyone else project them much higher than I did.  Naturally, those 2 signature wins they have were neutral site wins, not home wins.  I've adjusted them accordingly.
- I can tell you Houston is a 2 seed right now, but if anyone other than Baylor wins the Big 12 tourney, they're headed to the 2 line in their place.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston
The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas
The 4 line:  Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia
The 5 line:  USC, Florida St, Colorado, Missouri
The 6 line:  Tennessee, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech
The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, Clemson
The 8 line:  San Diego St, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma, 
The 9 line:  Virginia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn
The 10 line:  Maryland, UCLA, Georgia Tech, VCU
The 11 line:  Louisville, Michigan St, North Carolina, Colorado St
The 12 line:  Wichita St, Boise St, Drake, Utah St, UNCG, Toledo
The 13 line:  UCSB, Western Kentucky, Winthrop, Liberty
The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Siena, Morehead St
The 15 line:  Grand Canyon, Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford
The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Boise St
Utah St

Last 4 out:
Ole Miss
St Louis
St John's

Next 4 out:
Seton Hall


Bryan Wilson said...

Just curious, what is keeping Arkansas out of the 2 line for you right now? Profile seems similar to Houston but they have at least beaten 4 teams that are sure tournament teams vs just 1 for Houston.

HenryMuto said...

It's too bad for Cleveland State that the RPI is no longer used. CSU is 57 in RPI starting today compared to 160 in NET. The NET hates the entire Horizon league except Wright State which has killed CSU's NET numbers.

Based on RPI CSU would have been a 13 seed. Now they are likely at 15 seed which I hate and I think should be a 14 seed. I don't get why teams like Drexel and Oral Roberts and Grand Canyon and Siena are being rated over Cleveland State. Cleveland State went 16-4 in conf and finished tied for 1st those other teams like Drexel 4-5 in conf and Oral Roberts ect were mid pack conf records. CSU did play Ohio State to a 6 point game at Ohio State. What is killing their NET is the Ohio game where they lost by like 50 points and had an NCAA record 40-0 against them I still can't figure out what happened there.

Such a huge difference I think between a 14 and 15 seed this year.

Interesting how Wisconsin's RPI would be 75 as of today and Duke would be at 124.

HenryMuto said...

That is why you never want to play the extra game in a conference tournament. Clemson being the 5 seed instead of 4 seed has to play the extra game and gets knocked out by a bad Miami team. That is going to hurt the seed.

HenryMuto said...

Wow it's over for my 4th favorite team Xaiver..........19 point lead blown.

How does that guy foul with 3 seconds left 25 feet from the basket what an idiot.

Andrew said...

I just think the committee will slightly overseed Houston despite their resume. Usually when a mid-major is ranked high, they'll overlook a deficiency on the resume if the eye test suggests they're better. Houston's rankings seem to indicate they pass the eye test. Simple as that.