Well, I didn't even ask for it, but we're live on Bracket Matrix. We're in it now, guys.
A reminder to new visitors: I have been inactive this season due to health-related reasons and only started projections yesterday. Haven't had a chance to follow the season, so my analysis is strictly resume-based. I am operating on less knowledge.
Because of this, it's possible I'm missed some things in my first couple pass-throughs. But we're continuing on as some sort of experiment. See, I want to know how projections compare when the only information you have is the nitty gritty sheets.
Observations that I had while scrubbing yesterday:
- The Big 12 is an awkward conference to evaluate as a whole. Tons of Q1 games in conference play were available, and their numbers seem to dwarf the numbers of all the teams around them. I'm having a tough time guessing what the committee will do, comparing mid-pick Big 12 teams with ACC and Pac-12 champions, for example.
- If I were to guess where I'm wrong, it's the 5-6-7 lines. Not much separating teams in my view.
- I have no good idea what's going to happen to mid-majors. We just don't have the non-con data like we had in years past. I just don't have a good sense on SDSU, Loyola, and Bonaventure yet.
- I'm not in love with 3 MWC teams inside the bubble right at the end, but I'm having trouble filling out the field. Many of the teams I had right on the outside yesterday...sheesh there's some flawed resumes. I did move up Xavier, but they're still out. Road/neutral records still matter, I think. So for today at least, Utah St gets the nod.
- A good example of scrubbing: I decided to dock Clemson for having just 2 true road wins this year, then had to double take as I saw everyone else project them much higher than I did. Naturally, those 2 signature wins they have were neutral site wins, not home wins. I've adjusted them accordingly.
- I can tell you Houston is a 2 seed right now, but if anyone other than Baylor wins the Big 12 tourney, they're headed to the 2 line in their place.
The 1 line: Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan
The 2 line: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston
The 3 line: West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas
The 4 line: Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia
The 5 line: USC, Florida St, Colorado, Missouri
The 6 line: Tennessee, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech
The 7 line: Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, Clemson
The 8 line: San Diego St, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma,
The 9 line: Virginia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn
The 10 line: Maryland, UCLA, Georgia Tech, VCU
The 11 line: Louisville, Michigan St, North Carolina, Colorado St
The 12 line: Wichita St, Boise St, Drake, Utah St, UNCG, Toledo
The 13 line: UCSB, Western Kentucky, Winthrop, Liberty
The 14 line: Colgate, Southern Utah, Siena, Morehead St
The 15 line: Grand Canyon, Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford
The 16 line: Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M
Last 4 in:
Last 4 out:
Next 4 out: