SEED LIST 3/13 am

It doesn't feel like the MWC should get 4 teams in, but right now, their resumes are just simply better than the resumes of the last 4 out.  I don't think I can justify any flips yet.  As I've said earlier, expect continuous seed scrubbing throughout the next 24 hours.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston

The 3 line:  Oklahoma St, Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas

The 4 line:  Villanova, Purdue, Texas, Virginia

The 5 line:  Florida St, Tennessee, Missouri, Colorado

The 6 line:  USC, Creighton, Texas Tech, Florida

The 7 line:  Oregon, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St

The 8 line:  Clemson, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma

The 9 line:  St Bonaventure, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, UConn

The 10 line:  Maryland, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, VCU

The 11 line:  Michigan St, Wichita St, Drake, UCLA

The 12 line:  Utah St, Colorado St, Louisville, Boise St, Western Kentucky, Buffalo

The 13 line:  UNCG, Winthrop, Liberty, UCSB

The 14 line:  Colgate, Eastern Washington, Morehead St, Grand Canyon

The 15 line:  Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford, Iona

The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Last 4 in:

Utah St

Colorado St

Louisville

Boise St

Last 4 out:

Ole Miss

St Louis

Xavier

Syracuse

SEED LIST 3/12

Good Lord this bubble is bad.

I continue to scrub.  SEC teams are better than I thought.  Ole Miss is not dead, just because everyone else is dying.  I want to drop Boise out, but I can't find a team to replace them yet.  Are we seriously considering Syracuse here?

UCLA and Louisville would be dead in so many other years.

I'll continue to scrub.  I need to take a closer look at the bottom 4 lines, admittedly.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston

The 3 line:  Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma St

The 4 line:  Villanova, Purdue, Texas, Virginia

The 5 line:  USC, Florida St, Missouri, Tennessee

The 6 line:  Colorado, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech

The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St

The 8 line:  Clemson, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma

The 9 line:  St Bonaventure, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, UConn

The 10 line:  Maryland, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, VCU

The 11 line:  Michigan St, Colorado St, Wichita St, Drake

The 12 line:  UCLA, Louisville, Boise St, Utah St, Western Kentucky, Toledo

The 13 line:  UNCG, Winthrop, Liberty, UCSB

The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Morehead St, Grand Canyon

The 15 line:  Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford, St Peter's

The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, Prairie View A&M, Coppin St

Last 4 in:

UCLA

Louisville

Boise St

Utah St

Last 4 out:

St Louis

Ole Miss

Xavier

Syracuse

Next 4 out:

Seton Hall

St John's

Memphis

Duke

SEED LIST 3/11

 A modest amount of scrubbing today.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston

The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas

The 4 line:  Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia

The 5 line:  USC, Florida St, Colorado, Missouri

The 6 line:  Tennessee, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech

The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St

The 8 line:  Clemson, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma

The 9 line:  Virginia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn

The 10 line:  Maryland, UCLA, Georgia Tech, VCU

The 11 line:  Michigan St, North Carolina, Colorado St, Boise St

The 12 line:  Wichita St, Louisville, Drake, Utah St, UNCG, Toledo

The 13 line:  UCSB, Western Kentucky, Winthrop, Liberty

The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Morehead St, Grand Canyon

The 15 line:  Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford, St Peter's

The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M

Last 4 in:

Wichita St

Louisville

Drake

Utah St

Last 4 out:

St Louis

Ole Miss

Xavier

Syracuse

Next 4 out:

St John's

Seton Hall

Memphis

Duke

SEED LIST 3/10

Well, I didn't even ask for it, but we're live on Bracket Matrix.  We're in it now, guys.

A reminder to new visitors:  I have been inactive this season due to health-related reasons and only started projections yesterday.  Haven't had a chance to follow the season, so my analysis is strictly resume-based.  I am operating on less knowledge.

Because of this, it's possible I'm missed some things in my first couple pass-throughs.  But we're continuing on as some sort of experiment.  See, I want to know how projections compare when the only information you have is the nitty gritty sheets.

Observations that I had while scrubbing yesterday:

- The Big 12 is an awkward conference to evaluate as a whole.  Tons of Q1 games in conference play were available, and their numbers seem to dwarf the numbers of all the teams around them.  I'm having a tough time guessing what the committee will do, comparing mid-pick Big 12 teams with ACC and Pac-12 champions, for example.

- If I were to guess where I'm wrong, it's the 5-6-7 lines.  Not much separating teams in my view.

- I have no good idea what's going to happen to mid-majors.  We just don't have the non-con data like we had in years past.  I just don't have a good sense on SDSU, Loyola, and Bonaventure yet.

- I'm not in love with 3 MWC teams inside the bubble right at the end, but I'm having trouble filling out the field.  Many of the teams I had right on the outside yesterday...sheesh there's some flawed resumes.  I did move up Xavier, but they're still out.  Road/neutral records still matter, I think.  So for today at least, Utah St gets the nod.

- A good example of scrubbing:  I decided to dock Clemson for having just 2 true road wins this year, then had to double take as I saw everyone else project them much higher than I did.  Naturally, those 2 signature wins they have were neutral site wins, not home wins.  I've adjusted them accordingly.

- I can tell you Houston is a 2 seed right now, but if anyone other than Baylor wins the Big 12 tourney, they're headed to the 2 line in their place.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston

The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas

The 4 line:  Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia

The 5 line:  USC, Florida St, Colorado, Missouri

The 6 line:  Tennessee, Creighton, Oregon, Texas Tech

The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, Clemson

The 8 line:  San Diego St, Loyola, LSU, Oklahoma, 

The 9 line:  Virginia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn

The 10 line:  Maryland, UCLA, Georgia Tech, VCU

The 11 line:  Louisville, Michigan St, North Carolina, Colorado St

The 12 line:  Wichita St, Boise St, Drake, Utah St, UNCG, Toledo

The 13 line:  UCSB, Western Kentucky, Winthrop, Liberty

The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Siena, Morehead St

The 15 line:  Grand Canyon, Drexel, Cleveland St, Hartford

The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Mount St Mary's, Nicholls St, Appalachian St, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M

Last 4 in:

Wichita St

Boise St

Drake

Utah St

Last 4 out:

Xavier

Ole Miss

St Louis

St John's

Next 4 out:

Syracuse

Seton Hall

Memphis

SMU

SEED LIST 3/9

Welcome to the Great Bracketology Experiment.  How do projections end up when you end up having to unfollow the entire college basketball season?  Let's find out.

I've finally got some time to look through this.  Not having a job all of a sudden helps with this.  Before March my life was pretty well full, with every moment not working spent dealing with one crisis or another.  So at least the gods picked the right month for me to lose my job.  Now I can hone in (hopefully) for a full week.

This is my first pass-through for seeding teams this year.  We're starting with 7 to go.  Given the amount of information I'm trying to absorb, I'm absolutely certain I'm going to miss some things.  Expect me to refine this list each day as I get closer to something I like on Sunday.

Some observations:

- To me, there's a clear top 4.  It doesn't seem like the race for the 1 line is all that tight this year?

- I like to think of this list in tiers.  To me, the top 17 is a tier.  Oklahoma St is much closer to the 3 line than they are to Colorado.

- Another guess I'm making is that the committee gets aggressive in seeding mid-majors.  I tempered my seed of SDSU and Loyola and Bonaventure...for now.

- I did take a peek at Bracket Matrix and breathed a sigh of relief.  I think I'm a couple seed lines off the consensus in a couple places, but I think I avoided doing something stupid on my first pass.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

The 2 line:  Alabama, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston

The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Kansas

The 4 line:  Purdue, Virginia, USC, Texas

The 5 line:  Oklahoma St, Colorado, Florida St, Creighton

The 6 line:  Tennessee, Oregon, Texas Tech, Missouri

The 7 line:  Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego St

The 8 line:  Loyola, LSU, St Bonaventure, Rutgers

The 9 line:  Virginia Tech, UConn, Clemson, Oklahoma

The 10 line:  Maryland, UCLA, Louisville, VCU

The 11 line:  Georgia Tech, Michigan St, North Carolina, Wichita St

The 12 line:  Colorado St, St John's, Boise St, Drake, UNCG, Toledo

The 13 line:  UCSB, Western Kentucky, Siena, Liberty

The 14 line:  Colgate, Southern Utah, Winthrop, Morehead St

The 15 line:  Cleveland St, Bryant, Grand Canyon, North Dakota St

The 16 line:  Hartford, Appalachian St, Nicholls St, North Carolina A&T, Prairie View A&M, Drexel

Last 4 in:

Colorado St

St John's

Boise St

Drake

Last 4 out:

Utah St

Syracuse

Seton Hall

Memphis

Next 4 out:

Xavier

St Louis

SMU

Ole Miss

Bubble Watch: leftovers

Less leftovers than I thought.

Loyola (19-4) (16-2) NET 16 SoS 164

Vital signs:  1-2 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, 8-4 R/N

Signature wins:  @Drake, swept MSU?

Bad losses:  @Indiana St

A pretty classic beat-who-you're-supposed-to resume.  An alarming 11 Q4 wins, so it's a pretty light resume.  Is the NET ranking reliable in this instance?  I lean yes.  There's still a strong, strong road/neutral record to lean on.  This is a resume that certainly could miss the tournament, but this year causing problems with cutting the non-con short might save them.

Drake (22-3) (15-3) NET 41 SoS 261

Vital signs:  1-1 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2, 10-2 R/N

Signature wins:  Loyola, swept MSU?

Bad losses:  @Bradley and Valpo

Kinda in the same boat as LU, but without the NET boost and with horrendous SoS numbers.  That said, I lump them in the same bucket.  If they meet in the MVC finals, I reluctantly would put both in, but I'm not excited about either.

There's not much else to look at for at-large bids.  Things that caught my eye:

The SoCon had another good year overall it seems, but this time they don't have the at-large resumes to contend for multiple bids.

Colgate has a NET of 10.  lol.  Only because there's basically no non-conference games in the Patriot this year.  Navy and Colgate have separated in the league, and Navy did win at Georgetown.  No at-large bid for either, but a good solid seed should await for the winner.

I don't think anyone else is in play on the bubble.  Committee will use the shortened non-con as a shield, say no one from a mid-major conference has a resume good enough for an at-large bid, forgetting that no one had a chance to build up a resume good enough.

Bubble Watch: everyone else, part 1

Houston (18-3) (13-3) NET 4 SoS 60

Vital signs:  2-1 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 6-3 R/N

Signature wins:  N-TTU, @SMU, Boise

Bad losses:  @ECU

Such is life in the AAC.  A lack of top-end wins will lock them out of the top 2 lines, I think.  And I don't see a way out of avoiding this fate.

Wichita St (11-4) (9-2) NET 66 SoS 24

Vital signs:  2-2 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 4-2 R/N

Signature wins:  Houston, @Ole Miss, and um

Bad losses:  none really...@Memphis?

They're one Houston win away from being a non-factor on the bubble.  I'm not a fan of those types of resumes that require a strong lean on one single result.  Two home losses to probable tourney teams (Ok St and Mizzou) are killers, because they haven't gotten many other quality win chances.  I don't know if this resume can hold on without another significant result.  They really need to find a way to get their SMU series played.  Badly.

SMU (11-4) (7-4) NET 46 SoS 107

Vital signs:  0-3 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2, 5-2 R/N

Signature wins:  @Dayton, Memphis....oof

Bad losses:  Cincy

No wins over probable tourney teams, right?  Can't put them in.  They really badly need their two games with Wichita rescheduled.  That could cost BOTH teams a tournament spot.

Memphis (13-6) (9-3) NET 61 SoS 132

Vital signs:  0-2 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 3-5 R/N

Signature wins:  lolno

Bad losses:  Tulsa, N-WKU, @Tulsa

Only mentioned because they have a home game with Houston in hand.  We'll see if they win that one.

Gonzaga (24-0) (15-0) NET 1 SoS 81

Vital signs:  7-0 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2, 12-0 R/N

Signature wins:  N-Iowa, N-Kansas, N-WVU, N-Virginia, swept BYU

A hilariously strong collection of neutral site wins.  #1 overall seed, and can probably even survive 2 losses and still hold onto it.

BYU (18-5) (10-3) NET 20 SoS 18

Vital signs:  3-3 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 9-3 R/N

Signature wins:  @SDSU, @Utah St, @St Mary's

Bad losses:  @Pepperdine

Pretty safely in.  Pretty strong resume, and a good job in the non-con to get a couple road/neutral wins that will carry weight.

St Bonaventure (13-3) (11-3) NET 28 SoS 75

Vital signs:  2-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 5-3 R/N

Signature wins:  @Richmond?  @Davidson?  VCU

Bad losses:  @Rhody?

Only two non-con games, so their entire resume is basically conference play.  Does winning the A-10 get them in?  A-10 is more or less the #9 conference in the country.  Conference champions of a top 10 conference in years past usually, but not always, are good enough to get at-large bids.  With 2 cupcake-ish games remaining, I highly recommend winning both of them.  13-3 looks a lit better than 12-4.

VCU (17-6) (10-4) NET 38 SoS 32

Vital signs:  2-4 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2, 7-4 R/N

Signature wins:  Bonaventure, N-USU, St Louis?

Bad losses:  Rhody, Mason

This isn't the greatest resume in the world.  The SoS numbers feel deceptive to me.  I think I'd put them in, but I'm not feeling strong about that prediction.

St Louis (12-5) (5-4) NET 49 SoS 230

Vital signs:  2-2 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, 1-4 R/N

Signature wins:  Bonaventure, LSU, Richmond

Bad losses:  Dayton, @LaSalle

1 road win, in Q4.  Unplayable resume.

Richmond (12-6) (6-4) NET 53 SoS 39

Vital signs:  3-4 vs. Q1, 2-0 vs. Q2, 7-3 R/N

Signature wins:  N-Loyola, @Kentucky, @Davidson?

Bad losses:  LaSalle

A playable resume here though.  Road acumen, a couple signature wins, but a couple really, really dumb losses ruining everything.  This resume will be down to the wire.

San Diego St (18-4) (13-3) NET 18 SoS 25

Vital signs:  0-3 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2, 6-2 R/N

Signature wins:  Boise, UCLA, Colorado St

Bad losses:  none

The good news is no bad losses.  The bad news is no Q1 wins.  This means the seed upside is very, very limited.  I think the NET rating will help in their case.

Boise St (17-6) (14-5) NET 35 SoS 43

Vital signs:  2-4 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 7-6 R/N

Signature wins:  @BYU, @CSU, swept USU

Bad losses:  swept at Nevada

The lack of truly bad losses, plus juuust enough success on the road could be enough for them.  Worth noting 3 road losses were SDSU 2x and Houston, so they're better off than you think.  They're gonna need something more of value to add to the resume to make sure they make it, I fear.

Colorado St (14-4) (12-3) NET 45 SoS 73

Vital signs:  2-3 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, 7-3 R/N

Signature wins:  @SDSU, @Utah St, Boise

Bad losses:  Boise

Heh, their worst loss doubles as their 3rd best win.  I think I like this resume slightly more than Boise's while acknowledging both are in the same situation.

Utah St (14-7) (12-4) NET 50 SOS 100

Vital signs:  2-4 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, 7-5 R/N

Signature wins:  swept SDSU, CSU

Bad losses:  N-S Dakota St, @UNLV

Unlike the other teams above, USU took a couple dumb losses and it leaves them a half-step behind.  Will the committee take 4 MWC teams?  As much as it shouldn't matter, you know the committee will look at that sideways.  I'm worried.