Big East:
@Seton Hall 75, St John's 70
@Creighton 83, Providence 64 - a pair of holds for the home teams here; too early to panic for the losers
ACC:
@Syracuse 68, Virginia Tech 56
SEC:
@Kentucky 66, Georgia 61
@Ole Miss 74, South Carolina 69
Pac-12:
Utah 66, @Oregon St 64 - any, and I mean ANY 2-win road sequence in the Pac-12 is noteworthy for a bubble team
@UCLA 74, Washington 53 - important service hold in week 1 for UCLA
@USC 89, Washington St 71 - and a mandatory hold for USC after a loose loss to UW
@Oregon 77, Colorado 62
AAC:
@Cincinnati 82, Memphis 48
Tulsa 65, @Tulane 56 - just in case people were thinking about Tulane as an at-large entity
UCF 59, East Carolina 39
@SMU 79, South Florida 39
MVC:
@Bradley 72, Northern Iowa 53 - this is the overkill portion of UNI's at-large-ending stretch of play
Missouri St 67, @Valparaiso 50 - we now funnel our attention to MSU; who I'm not really sure has an at-large case, but we'll monitor anyways
elsewhere:
@Appalachian St 80, UT Arlington 76 - I swear to God, the Fun Belt does this every year, their best team tanks in conference play
Sunday, December 31, 2017
Saturday, December 30, 2017
12/30 recap
Big East:
@Butler 101, Villanova 93 - only will be a problem for Nova if road losses become a pattern. Butler gains a bubble-securing signature win
@Xavier 77, DePaul 72
@Marquette 74, Georgetown 65
Big 12:
Oklahoma 90, @TCU 89 - we're going to need to discuss OU and the 1 line before too long here
Pac-12:
@Arizona 84, Arizona St 78 - Zona needs every signature win they can get to repair their damage. Tough to say what this means for ASU as I'm not completely sure how good they are
California 77, @Stanford 74 - man, Stanford blows
ACC:
@Duke 100, Florida St 93 - a non-event for both teams from a bracket perspective
@Virginia 59, Boston College 58 - it'd be nice if BC could just lay down during conference play, you know
@North Carolina 73, Wake Forest 69
Miami 67, @Pittsburgh 53
@Notre Dame 68, Georgia Tech 59
@Clemson 78, NC State 62 - not a big deal, but still, the first step a fledgling bubble team must take is to win all of these games
SEC:
@Alabama 79, Texas A&M 57 - road games are tough, y'know. This hurts A&M's hopes at one of the top 2 lines; the best teams don't lose like this. This should stand up as a Group 1 win for a Bama team that desperately needed it
@Arkansas 95, Tennessee 93 (OT) - not really compelled to change the outlook on either team after this one
@Florida 81, Vanderbilt 74
AAC:
Wichita St 72, @UConn 62 - road wins are never trivial
@Houston 76, Temple 73 - and Temple is just about done and dusted already
MWC:
@Nevada 77, New Mexico 74
@San Diego St 79, Utah St 59
Boise St 83, @UNLV 74 - probable Group 1 win. Crushing blow for UNLV, tough to build an at-large resume when you let a home game like this go by the boards. Big boon for Boise though
WCC:
@Gonzaga 101, Santa Clara 52
St Mary's 74, @BYU 64 - crushing blow to BYU's at-large hopes (quality wins aren't in abundance in the WCC) and a major Group 1 win savior for St Mary's
A-10:
@St Bonaventure 98, UMass 78 - we've reached the long bleak portion of the schedule where Bonaventure must do everything they can to hold serve every night
@Rhode Island 83, George Mason 64 - ditto for URI
miscellany:
@Green Bay 80, Oakland 79 - the Horizon favorite splits the Wisconsin trip
@Loyola(Chi) 66, Evansville 59 - you tell me who the favorite in the MVC is. I don't know
@Charleston 73, Towson 62 - your two probable favorites in the Colonial, home service hold in the first of two key games here
@UNC Greensboro 71, Wofford 67 - just in case everyone was penciling in Wofford. SoCon could be low-key fun this year
Middle Tennessee 63, @UAB 60
@Sacramento St 80, Portland St 75 - PSU was actually putting up a really good resume for a Big Sky team, so this loss is disturbing
@Butler 101, Villanova 93 - only will be a problem for Nova if road losses become a pattern. Butler gains a bubble-securing signature win
@Xavier 77, DePaul 72
@Marquette 74, Georgetown 65
Big 12:
Oklahoma 90, @TCU 89 - we're going to need to discuss OU and the 1 line before too long here
Pac-12:
@Arizona 84, Arizona St 78 - Zona needs every signature win they can get to repair their damage. Tough to say what this means for ASU as I'm not completely sure how good they are
California 77, @Stanford 74 - man, Stanford blows
ACC:
@Duke 100, Florida St 93 - a non-event for both teams from a bracket perspective
@Virginia 59, Boston College 58 - it'd be nice if BC could just lay down during conference play, you know
@North Carolina 73, Wake Forest 69
Miami 67, @Pittsburgh 53
@Notre Dame 68, Georgia Tech 59
@Clemson 78, NC State 62 - not a big deal, but still, the first step a fledgling bubble team must take is to win all of these games
SEC:
@Alabama 79, Texas A&M 57 - road games are tough, y'know. This hurts A&M's hopes at one of the top 2 lines; the best teams don't lose like this. This should stand up as a Group 1 win for a Bama team that desperately needed it
@Arkansas 95, Tennessee 93 (OT) - not really compelled to change the outlook on either team after this one
@Florida 81, Vanderbilt 74
AAC:
Wichita St 72, @UConn 62 - road wins are never trivial
@Houston 76, Temple 73 - and Temple is just about done and dusted already
MWC:
@Nevada 77, New Mexico 74
@San Diego St 79, Utah St 59
Boise St 83, @UNLV 74 - probable Group 1 win. Crushing blow for UNLV, tough to build an at-large resume when you let a home game like this go by the boards. Big boon for Boise though
WCC:
@Gonzaga 101, Santa Clara 52
St Mary's 74, @BYU 64 - crushing blow to BYU's at-large hopes (quality wins aren't in abundance in the WCC) and a major Group 1 win savior for St Mary's
A-10:
@St Bonaventure 98, UMass 78 - we've reached the long bleak portion of the schedule where Bonaventure must do everything they can to hold serve every night
@Rhode Island 83, George Mason 64 - ditto for URI
miscellany:
@Green Bay 80, Oakland 79 - the Horizon favorite splits the Wisconsin trip
@Loyola(Chi) 66, Evansville 59 - you tell me who the favorite in the MVC is. I don't know
@Charleston 73, Towson 62 - your two probable favorites in the Colonial, home service hold in the first of two key games here
@UNC Greensboro 71, Wofford 67 - just in case everyone was penciling in Wofford. SoCon could be low-key fun this year
Middle Tennessee 63, @UAB 60
@Sacramento St 80, Portland St 75 - PSU was actually putting up a really good resume for a Big Sky team, so this loss is disturbing
Friday, December 29, 2017
12/29 recap
Big 12:
West Virginia 85, @Oklahoma St 79 - road wins are never trivial. Bodes well for WVU's probably quest for a top 3 seed. Bodes not that great for OSU battling in the bottom-middle of this conference going for an at-large bid
Kansas 92, @Texas 86 - just take the analysis from the game above and apply it here too
@Texas Tech 77, Baylor 53 - and Baylor can't keep pace with the 2 favorites in conference. Eyebrow officially raised at TTU, maybe they won't be in the cellar. Will toy with moving them in the bracket now that they have a legitimate business win on top of Nevada
Kansas St 91, @Iowa St 75
Pac-12:
Utah 66, @Oregon 56 - a tale of two bubbles. On the one end, Utah was on the wrong side, then just turned in a probable Group 1 win. On the other, bubble teams are supposed to hold onto this game and Oregon is in trouble
Washington 88, @USC 81 - and here's another game where I thought the better team was at home, and they give a game. I'm not really sure how good Utah or Washington are, but we must rethink the pecking order behind the Arizonas, I guess. This could be a mess of a season in this conference
@Oregon St 76, Colorado 76
@UCLA 96, Washington St 82 - maybe UCLA is 3rd best
miscellany:
@Coastal Carolina 90, UT Arlington 65 - everyone's mid-major darling just absolutely punted this game. What is this I don't even
non-con:
@Kentucky 90, Louisville 61 - kind of a non-event from a bracketing perspective
by the way, 5 Big 10 teams played non-con games. There's 8 more non-con games tomorrow. Why couldn't they just play league games this weekend? Just play 2 in 3 days, man up and squeeze them in. I don't think this MSG stuff is going to work for them long-term.
West Virginia 85, @Oklahoma St 79 - road wins are never trivial. Bodes well for WVU's probably quest for a top 3 seed. Bodes not that great for OSU battling in the bottom-middle of this conference going for an at-large bid
Kansas 92, @Texas 86 - just take the analysis from the game above and apply it here too
@Texas Tech 77, Baylor 53 - and Baylor can't keep pace with the 2 favorites in conference. Eyebrow officially raised at TTU, maybe they won't be in the cellar. Will toy with moving them in the bracket now that they have a legitimate business win on top of Nevada
Kansas St 91, @Iowa St 75
Pac-12:
Utah 66, @Oregon 56 - a tale of two bubbles. On the one end, Utah was on the wrong side, then just turned in a probable Group 1 win. On the other, bubble teams are supposed to hold onto this game and Oregon is in trouble
Washington 88, @USC 81 - and here's another game where I thought the better team was at home, and they give a game. I'm not really sure how good Utah or Washington are, but we must rethink the pecking order behind the Arizonas, I guess. This could be a mess of a season in this conference
@Oregon St 76, Colorado 76
@UCLA 96, Washington St 82 - maybe UCLA is 3rd best
miscellany:
@Coastal Carolina 90, UT Arlington 65 - everyone's mid-major darling just absolutely punted this game. What is this I don't even
non-con:
@Kentucky 90, Louisville 61 - kind of a non-event from a bracketing perspective
by the way, 5 Big 10 teams played non-con games. There's 8 more non-con games tomorrow. Why couldn't they just play league games this weekend? Just play 2 in 3 days, man up and squeeze them in. I don't think this MSG stuff is going to work for them long-term.
12/28 recap
Big East:
@Seton Hall 90, Creighton 84 - remember the rule: when home teams hold in this type of game, both teams' profiles don't really move in either direction significantly
Providence 94, @St John's 72 - a big road win for a team that I think most people were ready to leave behind in the bubble discussion. And a disturbing loss for a team that I think most people were ready to put in the bracket with no thought. The plot thickens
AAC:
Tulane 85, @Temple 75 - a catastrophic loss right off the bat for a fringe bubble team
Houston 79, @USF 60
WCC:
@Gonzaga 81, Pacific 48
@BYU 69, Portland 45
@St Mary's 87, Loyola Marymount 59 - standard night for matchday 1 in the WCC
MVC:
Southern Illinois 56, @Northern Iowa 53 - here's a dumb loss that could end at-large discussion for a conference much earlier than expected
miscellany:
Oakland 76, @Milwaukee 68 - probably the 2 best teams in the Horizon, and Oakland binks a road win in the series right away
@SE Louisiana 73, Stephen F Austin 62 - SFA won't be a lock to win this year's Southland
non-con:
Hartford 60, @Rutgers 58 - good grief. Rutgers had a stupid non-con schedule. 13 home games. That's it.
LSU 71, @Memphis 61 - one more decent road win for the SEC's non-con ledger
New Mexico St 65, @UC Irvine 60 - road wins are never trivial
@Seton Hall 90, Creighton 84 - remember the rule: when home teams hold in this type of game, both teams' profiles don't really move in either direction significantly
Providence 94, @St John's 72 - a big road win for a team that I think most people were ready to leave behind in the bubble discussion. And a disturbing loss for a team that I think most people were ready to put in the bracket with no thought. The plot thickens
AAC:
Tulane 85, @Temple 75 - a catastrophic loss right off the bat for a fringe bubble team
Houston 79, @USF 60
WCC:
@Gonzaga 81, Pacific 48
@BYU 69, Portland 45
@St Mary's 87, Loyola Marymount 59 - standard night for matchday 1 in the WCC
MVC:
Southern Illinois 56, @Northern Iowa 53 - here's a dumb loss that could end at-large discussion for a conference much earlier than expected
miscellany:
Oakland 76, @Milwaukee 68 - probably the 2 best teams in the Horizon, and Oakland binks a road win in the series right away
@SE Louisiana 73, Stephen F Austin 62 - SFA won't be a lock to win this year's Southland
non-con:
Hartford 60, @Rutgers 58 - good grief. Rutgers had a stupid non-con schedule. 13 home games. That's it.
LSU 71, @Memphis 61 - one more decent road win for the SEC's non-con ledger
New Mexico St 65, @UC Irvine 60 - road wins are never trivial
Thursday, December 28, 2017
12/27 recap
We begin conference play, and we can begin focusing these recaps a bit more tightly.
Big Priest:
Villanova 103, @DePaul 85
Xavier 91, @Marquette 87 - mid-tier tourney teams lose these road games; protected seeds win these games. I don't think many had Marquette in legitimate bubble play, so this shouldn't change much
Butler 91, @Georgetown 89 (2OT) - near disaster for Butler; good to see most were paying attention to GU's schedule, have a feeling this will turn into a 2-16 conference team
American:
@SMU 56, UCF 51 - right off the bat, one crucial Group 1 win chance is off the board for UCF. But, thanks to crafty scheduling by the AAC offices, they should get all the AAC contenders 2x this season
Mountain West:
@New Mexico 87, Air Force 58
@Wyoming 82, San Diego St 69 - right away, one road loss for SDSU that's going to hurt the at-large profile
@Utah St 86, San Jose St 72
@Boise St 93, Colorado St 71 - starting to feel like Boise and Nevada could separate in the conference, and I think the conference should root for this. Should be able to get those 2 secured by March and take your shot at back-dooring a 3rd bid from there
Nevada 80, @Fresno St 65 - good sign here: the road win over competent team
Big Priest:
Villanova 103, @DePaul 85
Xavier 91, @Marquette 87 - mid-tier tourney teams lose these road games; protected seeds win these games. I don't think many had Marquette in legitimate bubble play, so this shouldn't change much
Butler 91, @Georgetown 89 (2OT) - near disaster for Butler; good to see most were paying attention to GU's schedule, have a feeling this will turn into a 2-16 conference team
American:
@SMU 56, UCF 51 - right off the bat, one crucial Group 1 win chance is off the board for UCF. But, thanks to crafty scheduling by the AAC offices, they should get all the AAC contenders 2x this season
Mountain West:
@New Mexico 87, Air Force 58
@Wyoming 82, San Diego St 69 - right away, one road loss for SDSU that's going to hurt the at-large profile
@Utah St 86, San Jose St 72
@Boise St 93, Colorado St 71 - starting to feel like Boise and Nevada could separate in the conference, and I think the conference should root for this. Should be able to get those 2 secured by March and take your shot at back-dooring a 3rd bid from there
Nevada 80, @Fresno St 65 - good sign here: the road win over competent team
Monday, December 25, 2017
12/27 S-CURVE
Posting on 12/25...with no games until 12/27, damn straight I'm timestamping this S-Curve as 12/27.
The 1 line: Villanova (12-0), Duke (12-1), Michigan St (12-1), Arizona St (12-0)
The 2 line: North Carolina (11-2), Xavier (12-1), Oklahoma (10-1), Texas A&M (11-1)
The 3 line: West Virginia (11-1), Virginia (11-1), Kentucky (9-2), Kansas (10-2)
The 4 line: Purdue (12-2), Wichita St (10-2), Miami (11-1), Arizona (10-3)
The 5 line: TCU (12-0), Seton Hall (11-2), Arkansas (9-2), Gonzaga (10-3)
The 6 line: Florida St (11-1), Cincinnati (11-2), Creighton (10-2), Clemson (11-1)
The 7 line: Notre Dame (9-3), Tennessee (9-2), Louisville (10-2), Maryland (10-3)
The 8 line: Baylor (9-2), Minnesota (11-3), SMU (10-3), Texas (9-3)
The 9 line: Nevada (11-3), Florida (8-4), Oregon (10-3), Butler (10-3)
The 10 line: Michigan (10-3), Alabama (8-4), UCLA (9-3), Rhode Island (7-3)
The 11 line: Boise St (9-2), Syracuse (10-2), Auburn (11-1), St Bonaventure (10-2), Oklahoma St (10-2), St John's (9-2)
The 12 line: Northern Iowa (6-4), New Mexico St (9-3), Middle Tennessee (7-4), Towson (8-3)
The 13 line: UT Arlington (8-4), Buffalo (6-5), South Dakota St (8-5), UC Santa Barbara (9-3)
The 14 line: Wofford (5-4), Portland St (7-3), Belmont (8-5), Vermont (7-5)
The 15 line: Iona (6-6), Penn (7-4), Oakland (8-5), Bucknell (6-7)
The 16 line: Lipscomb (7-4), Stephen F Austin (7-2), UNC-Asheville (5-6), Wagner (5-4), North Carolina A&T (5-7), Texas Southern (0-13)
Next 4 in:
Alabama
UCLA
Boise St
Syracuse
Last 4 in:
Auburn
St Bonaventure
Oklahoma St
USC
Last 4 out:
St Mary's (11-2)
Temple (7-4)
Texas Tech (11-1)
USC (9-4)
Next 4 out:
Missouri St (10-3)
Missouri (9-3)
Virginia Tech (10-2)
San Diego St (7-3)
Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 4
MWC 2
A-10 2
Quick thoughts:
- ACC with 9 bids, seems to be a good line to set for an over/under for March bids.
- SEC up to 7 bids. Not convinced it'll stick, but their SoS work as a conference is showing dividends
- Big 12 with 6 bids, seems about right. Everyone is getting fooled by Texas Tech again. So stupid.
- B1G might be in legit trouble. They'll get to 5 bids just because someone has to win these conference games, but that might be their max
- Pac-12 is in trouble, but that's well documented by now, I hope.
- Big East has their typical 6
- Further down, I think A-10 could escape with 2 bids if Bonaventure separates with URI in league play
The 1 line: Villanova (12-0), Duke (12-1), Michigan St (12-1), Arizona St (12-0)
The 2 line: North Carolina (11-2), Xavier (12-1), Oklahoma (10-1), Texas A&M (11-1)
The 3 line: West Virginia (11-1), Virginia (11-1), Kentucky (9-2), Kansas (10-2)
The 4 line: Purdue (12-2), Wichita St (10-2), Miami (11-1), Arizona (10-3)
The 5 line: TCU (12-0), Seton Hall (11-2), Arkansas (9-2), Gonzaga (10-3)
The 6 line: Florida St (11-1), Cincinnati (11-2), Creighton (10-2), Clemson (11-1)
The 7 line: Notre Dame (9-3), Tennessee (9-2), Louisville (10-2), Maryland (10-3)
The 8 line: Baylor (9-2), Minnesota (11-3), SMU (10-3), Texas (9-3)
The 9 line: Nevada (11-3), Florida (8-4), Oregon (10-3), Butler (10-3)
The 10 line: Michigan (10-3), Alabama (8-4), UCLA (9-3), Rhode Island (7-3)
The 11 line: Boise St (9-2), Syracuse (10-2), Auburn (11-1), St Bonaventure (10-2), Oklahoma St (10-2), St John's (9-2)
The 12 line: Northern Iowa (6-4), New Mexico St (9-3), Middle Tennessee (7-4), Towson (8-3)
The 13 line: UT Arlington (8-4), Buffalo (6-5), South Dakota St (8-5), UC Santa Barbara (9-3)
The 14 line: Wofford (5-4), Portland St (7-3), Belmont (8-5), Vermont (7-5)
The 15 line: Iona (6-6), Penn (7-4), Oakland (8-5), Bucknell (6-7)
The 16 line: Lipscomb (7-4), Stephen F Austin (7-2), UNC-Asheville (5-6), Wagner (5-4), North Carolina A&T (5-7), Texas Southern (0-13)
Next 4 in:
Alabama
UCLA
Boise St
Syracuse
Last 4 in:
Auburn
St Bonaventure
Oklahoma St
USC
Last 4 out:
St Mary's (11-2)
Temple (7-4)
Texas Tech (11-1)
USC (9-4)
Next 4 out:
Missouri St (10-3)
Missouri (9-3)
Virginia Tech (10-2)
San Diego St (7-3)
Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 4
MWC 2
A-10 2
Quick thoughts:
- ACC with 9 bids, seems to be a good line to set for an over/under for March bids.
- SEC up to 7 bids. Not convinced it'll stick, but their SoS work as a conference is showing dividends
- Big 12 with 6 bids, seems about right. Everyone is getting fooled by Texas Tech again. So stupid.
- B1G might be in legit trouble. They'll get to 5 bids just because someone has to win these conference games, but that might be their max
- Pac-12 is in trouble, but that's well documented by now, I hope.
- Big East has their typical 6
- Further down, I think A-10 could escape with 2 bids if Bonaventure separates with URI in league play
12/25 recap
Diamond Head:
USC 77, New Mexico St 72 - not the signature win USC was hoping for, but a solid neutral site win will have to do
Miami 84, MTSU 81 - the win has modest value, at least
Davidson 91, Akron 78
Princeton 77, Hawaii 63 - Hawaii does realize they technically lost 3 home games here, right?
USC 77, New Mexico St 72 - not the signature win USC was hoping for, but a solid neutral site win will have to do
Miami 84, MTSU 81 - the win has modest value, at least
Davidson 91, Akron 78
Princeton 77, Hawaii 63 - Hawaii does realize they technically lost 3 home games here, right?
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