B1G:
@Wisconsin 71, Maryland 60 - that'll shift around some seeding
@Minnesota 83, Michigan 78 (OT) - this doesn't hurt Michigan too badly, road wins are difficult and they gained some solid ground as of late
Big East:
@Creighton 87, Georgetown 70 - might've been GU's last chance saloon
@Butler 82, DePaul 66
ACC:
@Georgia Tech 71, Syracuse 65 - two desperate bubble team, home team holds. Status quo for both...but not really, because the raw number of losses from SU is a problem
Pac-12:
@Oregon St 68, Utah 67 - well, Utah is now super-dead instead of just dead
elsewhere:
@Illinois St 65, Loyola(Chi) 63
Sunday, February 19, 2017
2/18 recap
ACC:
@Louisville 94, Virginia Tech 90 - no big worries for VT, no harm to their profile
@North Carolina 65, Virginia 41 - UVa has lost the #4 ACC spot to Duke for sure now....might not be the worst thing in the world. It's going to be tough for them to slip much farther than a 6 seed...
@Duke 99, Wake Forest 94
@Pittsburgh 80, Florida St 66 - Pittsburgh. Not dead!
Notre Dame 81, NC State 72 - road wins are never trivial
@Miami 71, Clemson 65 - Clemson just might have too many losses at this point to matter
Big East:
Villanova 92, @Seton Hall 70 - no biggie for SHU
@Marquette 83, Xavier 61
Big 12:
Kansas 67, @Baylor 65 - we likely now know the identity of the top 2 teams on the S-Curve...and Gonzaga will likely be trapped behind both with no way around (without some help, at least)
@West Virginia 83, Texas Tech 74 (2OT) - I don't know what WVU's problem is this year, but they're going to lose a seed line or two thanks to some sloppy resume work. TTU nearly found the back door into the bubble talk
Kansas St 64, @Texas 61 - road wins are never trivial
@Iowa St 84, TCU 71
@Oklahoma St 96, Oklahoma 92
Pac-12:
Arizona 76, @Washington 68
@UCLA 102, USC 70 - no biggie for USC
@Oregon 101, Colorado 73
SEC:
Kentucky 82, @Georgia 77
Florida 57, @Mississippi St 52
@Vanderbilt 71, South Carolina 62 - you're not gonna believe this, but Vanderbilt isn't dead yet. Trust me on this
@Tennessee 90, Missouri 70
@Alabama 90, LSU 72
@Arkansas 98, Ole Miss 80
B1G:
@Purdue 80, Michigan St 63 - every loss has a cost to MSU right now
@Northwestern 69, Rutgers 65
AAC:
@Cincinnati 80, Tulsa 60
SMU 76, @Houston 66 - okay, Houston is dead now
A-10:
@Dayton 76, St Bonaventure 72
WCC:
@Gonzaga 82, Pacific 61
St Mary's 70, @BYU 57 - St Mary's should be home free now
elsewhere:
@Wichita St 73, Northern Iowa 44
Middle Tennessee 97, @Marshall 86
@Nevada 77, Utah St 66
@Louisville 94, Virginia Tech 90 - no big worries for VT, no harm to their profile
@North Carolina 65, Virginia 41 - UVa has lost the #4 ACC spot to Duke for sure now....might not be the worst thing in the world. It's going to be tough for them to slip much farther than a 6 seed...
@Duke 99, Wake Forest 94
@Pittsburgh 80, Florida St 66 - Pittsburgh. Not dead!
Notre Dame 81, NC State 72 - road wins are never trivial
@Miami 71, Clemson 65 - Clemson just might have too many losses at this point to matter
Big East:
Villanova 92, @Seton Hall 70 - no biggie for SHU
@Marquette 83, Xavier 61
Big 12:
Kansas 67, @Baylor 65 - we likely now know the identity of the top 2 teams on the S-Curve...and Gonzaga will likely be trapped behind both with no way around (without some help, at least)
@West Virginia 83, Texas Tech 74 (2OT) - I don't know what WVU's problem is this year, but they're going to lose a seed line or two thanks to some sloppy resume work. TTU nearly found the back door into the bubble talk
Kansas St 64, @Texas 61 - road wins are never trivial
@Iowa St 84, TCU 71
@Oklahoma St 96, Oklahoma 92
Pac-12:
Arizona 76, @Washington 68
@UCLA 102, USC 70 - no biggie for USC
@Oregon 101, Colorado 73
SEC:
Kentucky 82, @Georgia 77
Florida 57, @Mississippi St 52
@Vanderbilt 71, South Carolina 62 - you're not gonna believe this, but Vanderbilt isn't dead yet. Trust me on this
@Tennessee 90, Missouri 70
@Alabama 90, LSU 72
@Arkansas 98, Ole Miss 80
B1G:
@Purdue 80, Michigan St 63 - every loss has a cost to MSU right now
@Northwestern 69, Rutgers 65
AAC:
@Cincinnati 80, Tulsa 60
SMU 76, @Houston 66 - okay, Houston is dead now
A-10:
@Dayton 76, St Bonaventure 72
WCC:
@Gonzaga 82, Pacific 61
St Mary's 70, @BYU 57 - St Mary's should be home free now
elsewhere:
@Wichita St 73, Northern Iowa 44
Middle Tennessee 97, @Marshall 86
@Nevada 77, Utah St 66
Friday, February 17, 2017
2/17 recap
Kent St 70, @Akron 67 - well, that's endgame for Akron if you were thinking about an at-large, for whatever reason
@Oakland 82, Valparaiso 71 - ditto
VCU 84, @Richmond 73 - road wins are never trivial. Road win at the probable 3rd place A-10 team is a solid road win at this point in the year
@Stanford 73, California 68 - this is why road wins are never trivial. It's not fatal, but this takes away a fair bit of margin of error for Cal down the stretch. Don't want to burn one of these against an inferior team
@Oakland 82, Valparaiso 71 - ditto
VCU 84, @Richmond 73 - road wins are never trivial. Road win at the probable 3rd place A-10 team is a solid road win at this point in the year
@Stanford 73, California 68 - this is why road wins are never trivial. It's not fatal, but this takes away a fair bit of margin of error for Cal down the stretch. Don't want to burn one of these against an inferior team
2/17 S-CURVE
I marked the exact moment I lost faith in the teams I were seeding. It was right at the last 6 seed. Everyone on the 7-10 lines are 2 lines higher than they deserve to be.
The 1 line: Villanova (25-2), Kansas (23-3), Gonzaga (27-0), Baylor (21-4)
The 2 line: North Carolina (21-5), Louisville (21-5), Florida St (21-5), Oregon (22-4)
The 3 line: Arizona (24-3), Florida (21-5), Kentucky (21-5), Duke (21-5)
The 4 line: UCLA (23-3), West Virginia (20-6), Butler (20-6), Purdue (21-5)
The 5 line: Virginia (18-7), Notre Dame (20-7), Cincinnati (23-3), Creighton (20-5)
The 6 line: Maryland (21-4), Wisconsin (21-5), SMU (23-4), St Mary's (23-3)
The 7 line: Xavier (18-8), Northwestern (19-7), USC (21-5), South Carolina (19-6)
The 8 line: Virginia Tech (18-7), Dayton (19-5), Minnesota (19-7), Miami (17-8)
The 9 line: Iowa St (16-9), VCU (21-5), California (18-7), Oklahoma St (16-9)
The 10 line: Middle Tennessee (22-4), Michigan (16-9), Michigan St (16-10), Arkansas (19-7)
The 11 line: Syracuse (16-11), TCU (16-9), Wichita St (23-4), Seton Hall (16-9), Kansas St (16-10), Clemson (14-11)
The 12 line: Illinois St (21-5), UNC-Wilmington (21-5), Colorado St (16-9), Texas-Arlington (17-6)
The 13 line: Akron (21-4), Monmouth (23-5), Valparaiso (20-5), Vermont (23-5)
The 14 line: Princeton (14-6), Belmont (19-5), Furman (18-8), UNC-Asheville (19-7)
The 15 line: Cal St-Bakersfield (15-7), North Dakota St (15-9), Bucknell (20-8), FGCU (18-7)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (14-11), North Carolina Central (16-6), New Orleans (12-9), Weber St (14-8), Mount St Mary's (14-14), UC-Davis (14-10)
Next 4 in:
Michigan St
Arkansas
Syracuse
TCU
Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Seton Hall
Kansas St
Clemson
Last 4 out:
Georgia Tech (14-11)
Wake Forest (15-11)
Marquette (15-10)
Indiana (15-12)
Next 4 out:
Nevada (20-6)
Providence (16-11)
Houston (18-7)
Tennessee (13-12)
NIT lines:
The 3 line: Pittsburgh (14-12), Alabama (15-10), Ohio St (15-12), Utah (15-9)
The 4 line: Rhode Island (16-9), Georgetown (14-12), Boise St (15-8), Georgia (14-11)
The 5 line: New Mexico St (19-4), Ole Miss (16-10), Texas Tech (17-9), Auburn (16-10)
The 6 line: Illinois (13-12), BYU (19-9), Charleston (19-8), Arkansas St (17-8)
The 7 line: Vanderbilt (13-13), Richmond (15-10), Memphis (18-9), New Mexico (16-10)
The 8 line: Penn St (14-13), St Bonaventure (16-9), San Diego St (14-10), Chattanooga (17-7)
Top 16 Breakdown:
EAST 34
1) Villanova @Buffalo
2) Louisville @Indianapolis
3) Kentucky @Indianapolis
4) Purdue @Milwaukee
SOUTH 32
1) Baylor @Tulsa
2) North Carolina @Greenville
3) Florida @Orlando
4) UCLA @Sacramento
WEST 37
1) Gonzaga @Salt Lake City
2) Oregon @Sacramento
3) Duke @Greenville
4) West Virginia @Buffalo
MIDWEST 33
1) Kansas @Tulsa
2) Florida St @Orlando
3) Arizona @Salt Lake City
4) Butler @Milwaukee
The West is out of whack a bit, but the only way to fix that is to move both Florida St and Oregon across the country. And there's a nasty chain reaction to that, so I think the committee would swallow this bracket instead.
The 1 line: Villanova (25-2), Kansas (23-3), Gonzaga (27-0), Baylor (21-4)
The 2 line: North Carolina (21-5), Louisville (21-5), Florida St (21-5), Oregon (22-4)
The 3 line: Arizona (24-3), Florida (21-5), Kentucky (21-5), Duke (21-5)
The 4 line: UCLA (23-3), West Virginia (20-6), Butler (20-6), Purdue (21-5)
The 5 line: Virginia (18-7), Notre Dame (20-7), Cincinnati (23-3), Creighton (20-5)
The 6 line: Maryland (21-4), Wisconsin (21-5), SMU (23-4), St Mary's (23-3)
The 7 line: Xavier (18-8), Northwestern (19-7), USC (21-5), South Carolina (19-6)
The 8 line: Virginia Tech (18-7), Dayton (19-5), Minnesota (19-7), Miami (17-8)
The 9 line: Iowa St (16-9), VCU (21-5), California (18-7), Oklahoma St (16-9)
The 10 line: Middle Tennessee (22-4), Michigan (16-9), Michigan St (16-10), Arkansas (19-7)
The 11 line: Syracuse (16-11), TCU (16-9), Wichita St (23-4), Seton Hall (16-9), Kansas St (16-10), Clemson (14-11)
The 12 line: Illinois St (21-5), UNC-Wilmington (21-5), Colorado St (16-9), Texas-Arlington (17-6)
The 13 line: Akron (21-4), Monmouth (23-5), Valparaiso (20-5), Vermont (23-5)
The 14 line: Princeton (14-6), Belmont (19-5), Furman (18-8), UNC-Asheville (19-7)
The 15 line: Cal St-Bakersfield (15-7), North Dakota St (15-9), Bucknell (20-8), FGCU (18-7)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (14-11), North Carolina Central (16-6), New Orleans (12-9), Weber St (14-8), Mount St Mary's (14-14), UC-Davis (14-10)
Next 4 in:
Michigan St
Arkansas
Syracuse
TCU
Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Seton Hall
Kansas St
Clemson
Last 4 out:
Georgia Tech (14-11)
Wake Forest (15-11)
Marquette (15-10)
Indiana (15-12)
Next 4 out:
Nevada (20-6)
Providence (16-11)
Houston (18-7)
Tennessee (13-12)
NIT lines:
The 3 line: Pittsburgh (14-12), Alabama (15-10), Ohio St (15-12), Utah (15-9)
The 4 line: Rhode Island (16-9), Georgetown (14-12), Boise St (15-8), Georgia (14-11)
The 5 line: New Mexico St (19-4), Ole Miss (16-10), Texas Tech (17-9), Auburn (16-10)
The 6 line: Illinois (13-12), BYU (19-9), Charleston (19-8), Arkansas St (17-8)
The 7 line: Vanderbilt (13-13), Richmond (15-10), Memphis (18-9), New Mexico (16-10)
The 8 line: Penn St (14-13), St Bonaventure (16-9), San Diego St (14-10), Chattanooga (17-7)
Top 16 Breakdown:
EAST 34
1) Villanova @Buffalo
2) Louisville @Indianapolis
3) Kentucky @Indianapolis
4) Purdue @Milwaukee
SOUTH 32
1) Baylor @Tulsa
2) North Carolina @Greenville
3) Florida @Orlando
4) UCLA @Sacramento
WEST 37
1) Gonzaga @Salt Lake City
2) Oregon @Sacramento
3) Duke @Greenville
4) West Virginia @Buffalo
MIDWEST 33
1) Kansas @Tulsa
2) Florida St @Orlando
3) Arizona @Salt Lake City
4) Butler @Milwaukee
The West is out of whack a bit, but the only way to fix that is to move both Florida St and Oregon across the country. And there's a nasty chain reaction to that, so I think the committee would swallow this bracket instead.
Thursday, February 16, 2017
2/16 recap
Not much today. Lots of NITWatch.
Pac-12:
Arizona 78, @Washington St 59
@Oregon 79, Utah 61 - Utah is quickly running out of chances to be relevant
NITWatch: Colorado beats Oregon St, is probably a good bet for the NIT at this point
also, how is Washington 9-17? How are they losing to ASU at home?
B1G:
@Michigan 64, Wisconsin 58 - well Michigan is winning games and starting to beat decent teams. They're going in the opposite direction of most bubble teams, which counts for something. Meanwhile, Wisky is doing real damage to their seed
SEC:
NITWatch: Vandy beat A&M at home...that's a NIT team if they finish .500
AAC:
UConn beats Memphis at home...man, this AAC insists on killing itself as much as possible. All these teams navigating towards .500 in the conference is just going to hurt SMU and Cincy more and more
WCC:
@Gonzaga 96, San Francisco 61
@St Mary's 81, Loyola Marymount 48
CUSA:
Middle Tennessee 78, @Western Kentucky 52
CAA:
UNC-Wilmington and Charleston both won on the road...both safely in the NIT, both too far away from the NCAA bubble
Pac-12:
Arizona 78, @Washington St 59
@Oregon 79, Utah 61 - Utah is quickly running out of chances to be relevant
NITWatch: Colorado beats Oregon St, is probably a good bet for the NIT at this point
also, how is Washington 9-17? How are they losing to ASU at home?
B1G:
@Michigan 64, Wisconsin 58 - well Michigan is winning games and starting to beat decent teams. They're going in the opposite direction of most bubble teams, which counts for something. Meanwhile, Wisky is doing real damage to their seed
SEC:
NITWatch: Vandy beat A&M at home...that's a NIT team if they finish .500
AAC:
UConn beats Memphis at home...man, this AAC insists on killing itself as much as possible. All these teams navigating towards .500 in the conference is just going to hurt SMU and Cincy more and more
WCC:
@Gonzaga 96, San Francisco 61
@St Mary's 81, Loyola Marymount 48
CUSA:
Middle Tennessee 78, @Western Kentucky 52
CAA:
UNC-Wilmington and Charleston both won on the road...both safely in the NIT, both too far away from the NCAA bubble
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
2/15 recap
ACC:
North Carolina 97, @NC State 73
Duke 65, @Virginia 55 - the matter of seeding all these ACC teams are just getting more complicated. I just have this weird feeling that the committee is going to eye test Duke to a better seed. Virginia, though, might be better off. As the 4th best ACC team, they'd be ticketed for the west region, governed by the 4-in-4 rule. As the 5th best ACC team, they can end up basically anywhere
@Miami 70, Georgia Tech 61 - it's certainly a big ask to GT to win this game, but this doesn't help. Status quo for both teams going forward
Big 12:
Iowa St 87, @Kansas St 79 - some damage to K-State here - you have to hold your ground in these bubble games at home. ISU meanwhile continues to figure out a way to stay a half step ahead of the bubble
Oklahoma St 71, @TCU 68 - in bubble v. bubble games, home wins are status quo for both teams, and road wins are incredibly damaging to the home team. Well, here we have OSU playing their way well into the field and TCU in some trouble. We're getting clarity in the Big 12 where ISU and OSU are bubble-in and KSU and TCU are true bubblers
Big East:
@Seton Hall 87, Creighton 81 - well, this is one situation taken advantage of. This win doesn't cure everything, but this is one of the pieces they needed. Meanwhile, Creighton isn't hurt too badly, just because there's a pretty large gap between the 6-7 lines and the 8-10 lines
@Butler 110, St John's 86
@Providence 75, Xavier 63 - well, if Provi is insisting, we'll put them back in play on the bubble. By the way, X is doing a bit of damage to their seed here
SEC:
Arkansas 83, @South Carolina 76 - road wins are everything. EVERYTHING
Alabama 57, @Missouri 54
B1G:
Maryland 74, @Northwestern 64 - a couple weeks ago I said Northwestern needed a big win or two. The good news is the Wisky win made this game optional for their resume
@Minnesota 75, Indiana 74 - Indiana's in trouble. And Minnesota should finally be in safety and everything going forward should be about seeding
AAC:
Cincinnati 68, @South Florida 54
@SMU 80, Tulane 75 - in this year, simply winning all the games you should matters
A-10:
Fordham 53, @Rhode Island 43 - what an incredibly stupid way to fall off the bubble
elsewhere:
Wichita St 87, @Southern Illinois 68
Illinois St 67, @Missouri St 66
Nevada 78, @Air Force 59
North Carolina 97, @NC State 73
Duke 65, @Virginia 55 - the matter of seeding all these ACC teams are just getting more complicated. I just have this weird feeling that the committee is going to eye test Duke to a better seed. Virginia, though, might be better off. As the 4th best ACC team, they'd be ticketed for the west region, governed by the 4-in-4 rule. As the 5th best ACC team, they can end up basically anywhere
@Miami 70, Georgia Tech 61 - it's certainly a big ask to GT to win this game, but this doesn't help. Status quo for both teams going forward
Big 12:
Iowa St 87, @Kansas St 79 - some damage to K-State here - you have to hold your ground in these bubble games at home. ISU meanwhile continues to figure out a way to stay a half step ahead of the bubble
Oklahoma St 71, @TCU 68 - in bubble v. bubble games, home wins are status quo for both teams, and road wins are incredibly damaging to the home team. Well, here we have OSU playing their way well into the field and TCU in some trouble. We're getting clarity in the Big 12 where ISU and OSU are bubble-in and KSU and TCU are true bubblers
Big East:
@Seton Hall 87, Creighton 81 - well, this is one situation taken advantage of. This win doesn't cure everything, but this is one of the pieces they needed. Meanwhile, Creighton isn't hurt too badly, just because there's a pretty large gap between the 6-7 lines and the 8-10 lines
@Butler 110, St John's 86
@Providence 75, Xavier 63 - well, if Provi is insisting, we'll put them back in play on the bubble. By the way, X is doing a bit of damage to their seed here
SEC:
Arkansas 83, @South Carolina 76 - road wins are everything. EVERYTHING
Alabama 57, @Missouri 54
B1G:
Maryland 74, @Northwestern 64 - a couple weeks ago I said Northwestern needed a big win or two. The good news is the Wisky win made this game optional for their resume
@Minnesota 75, Indiana 74 - Indiana's in trouble. And Minnesota should finally be in safety and everything going forward should be about seeding
AAC:
Cincinnati 68, @South Florida 54
@SMU 80, Tulane 75 - in this year, simply winning all the games you should matters
A-10:
Fordham 53, @Rhode Island 43 - what an incredibly stupid way to fall off the bubble
elsewhere:
Wichita St 87, @Southern Illinois 68
Illinois St 67, @Missouri St 66
Nevada 78, @Air Force 59
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
2/14 recap
ACC:
Notre Dame 84, @Boston College 76
@Clemson 95, Wake Forest 83 - Clemson's not quite dead, but a home win like this does not move the needle. Wake's gotta win one of these someday
Virginia Tech 66, @Pittsburgh 63 - road wins are never trivial. Pitt was close to dead; this might do it just because going on a run in this conference is impossible. VT is inching towards safety
Big 12:
did you know ESPN2 televised Oklahoma/Texas on this night instead of many of these other games? Good thing we caught that OU win, huh
SEC:
@Kentucky 83, Tennessee 58 - UT's got a loss accumulation problem they're not going to get over, it seems
Florida 114, @Auburn 95 - Auburn needs something big to get into the bubble picture...this was supposed to be it
@Georgia 79, Mississippi St 72 - Georgia isn't dead, but they need to string a bunch of these together, fast
@Ole Miss 96, LSU 76 - same deal for Ole Miss. String 'em together
B1G:
@Purdue 74, Rutgers 55
@Michigan St 74, Ohio St 66 - OSU needed something noteworthy to get all the way back in the bubble picture, didn't get it. MSU needs to continue to hold serve
in NITWatch, Nebraska beat Penn St at home
A-10:
@VCU 91, St Joseph's 81
Dayton 85, @St Louis 63 - I can't imagine VCU or Dayton screwing this up at this point
in NIT bubble watch, Richmond lost at George Mason and I'm not sure the A-10 gets a 4th postseason team anymore
MWC:
@New Mexico 78, Boise St 73 - just when people started to resurrect Boise, there goes that. In other MWC news, Colorado St won at Wyoming, and actually lead at 10-4. Ahead of Boise (9-4), Nevada (8-4), and UNM (9-5). Kind of an interesting NIT bubble race too. Nevada and Boise would appear to be safe for that, but CSU and UNM aren't.
elsewhere:
@Akron 71, Toledo 65
in NITWatch, Iona lost again and probably has locked the MAAC out of a NIT at-large bid...UCF beat Tulsa to remain alive...
Notre Dame 84, @Boston College 76
@Clemson 95, Wake Forest 83 - Clemson's not quite dead, but a home win like this does not move the needle. Wake's gotta win one of these someday
Virginia Tech 66, @Pittsburgh 63 - road wins are never trivial. Pitt was close to dead; this might do it just because going on a run in this conference is impossible. VT is inching towards safety
Big 12:
did you know ESPN2 televised Oklahoma/Texas on this night instead of many of these other games? Good thing we caught that OU win, huh
SEC:
@Kentucky 83, Tennessee 58 - UT's got a loss accumulation problem they're not going to get over, it seems
Florida 114, @Auburn 95 - Auburn needs something big to get into the bubble picture...this was supposed to be it
@Georgia 79, Mississippi St 72 - Georgia isn't dead, but they need to string a bunch of these together, fast
@Ole Miss 96, LSU 76 - same deal for Ole Miss. String 'em together
B1G:
@Purdue 74, Rutgers 55
@Michigan St 74, Ohio St 66 - OSU needed something noteworthy to get all the way back in the bubble picture, didn't get it. MSU needs to continue to hold serve
in NITWatch, Nebraska beat Penn St at home
A-10:
@VCU 91, St Joseph's 81
Dayton 85, @St Louis 63 - I can't imagine VCU or Dayton screwing this up at this point
in NIT bubble watch, Richmond lost at George Mason and I'm not sure the A-10 gets a 4th postseason team anymore
MWC:
@New Mexico 78, Boise St 73 - just when people started to resurrect Boise, there goes that. In other MWC news, Colorado St won at Wyoming, and actually lead at 10-4. Ahead of Boise (9-4), Nevada (8-4), and UNM (9-5). Kind of an interesting NIT bubble race too. Nevada and Boise would appear to be safe for that, but CSU and UNM aren't.
elsewhere:
@Akron 71, Toledo 65
in NITWatch, Iona lost again and probably has locked the MAAC out of a NIT at-large bid...UCF beat Tulsa to remain alive...
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