I was taking a closer look at this and wondering: based purely on profile, who should be the #1 overall seed? I think it's worth breaking down and doing the legwork now. I think it's closer than most think, but the answer is still Kentucky.
Signature wins:
Kentucky: N-Kansas, UNC, @Louisville, Providence, Texas
Virginia: @UNC, Louisville, @VCU, @Maryland, @Notre Dame
Virginia might get the checkmark here - 4 true road wins of that magnitude are tremendous (not that Kentucky's run of wins is marginal in any way).
Losses:
Major checkmark to Kentucky.
SoS:
Kentucky: #10 SoS (#3 non-con)
Virginia: #6 SoS (#25 non-con)
Pretty even in my book. Kentucky is getting hurt, but just slightly hurt, by the SEC schedule. Virginia has the tougher one overall, but Kentucky scheduled the non-con tougher (not at #25 is easy or anything). I'm inclined to call this a wash.
Road/neutral record:
Kentucky 9-0
Virginia 11-0
Checkmark Virginia, not just for the 11 against 9, but for the quality of the 11 (described above.
Record against top 50/100:
Kentucky 9-0 vs. Top 50, 14-0 vs. Top 100
Virginia 5-1 vs. Top 50, 13-1 vs. Top 100
Checkmark Kentucky. Virginia has a better top 5 wins, but they fall off a cliff after that. Blame the ACC's unbalanced schedule and bad midsection for preventing Virginia from building up depth here. Kentucky's beaten a nice stable of bubble teams (Ole Miss, UCLA, A&M, LSU) that Virginia can't quite match (Harvard, NC State, George Washington, Miami). Certainly, Kentucky's opponents are faring better than Virginia's right now.
Average RPI win:
Kentucky 99
Virginia 104
Checkmark Kentucky.
So it's close, but the clear advantage to Kentucky, IMO.
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