State of the conferences, part 4

State of the Summit

This is all about North Dakota St (8-4), with a fighting chance at a Top 50 RPI.  They've scheduled up bigtime.  They did convert one major opportunity @Notre Dame.  Losses @St Mary's, Southern Miss, and @Ohio St are forgivable with that at hand.  @North Dakota, however, is a death blow.  An at-large bid is probably too much to ask for.  Needed two of those losses back, probably.

Nebraska-Omaha (7-4) is a borderline top 100 team, at least.  Nothing in the profile is remarkable though.  Some weak road wins are boosting it.  Denver (4-6) did schedule up, and did beat Belmont, but a pair of MWC wins (CSU, Wyoming) lost value and they bleeded too many games against better competition.

IPFW (8-4) played a bad schedule, so don't read much into the record, except it'll carry them to postseason play.  In the bottom four, we have South Dakota St (4-7), Western Illinois (2-7), South Dakota (2-8), and IUPUI (2-11).  SDSU's win over Belmont is the only win that suggests any of these teams can make any noise.

Final predictions:  NDSU is the class of the league.  However, I do think they can squeeze three more teams in the CBI/CIT.

State of the Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette (6-4) has emerged as the profile front-runner for now, although traditionally in this conference, it means nothing.  Good SoS, and won at Louisiana Tech.

It's a mess behind them.  Western Kentucky (7-4) has name recognition and picked off a game against Southern Miss.  Arkansas St (6-4) has the other winning record, but it's weak.  Louisiana-Monroe (2-4), South Alabama (3-6), and Georgia St (4-6) have the profiles suggesting mid-table finishes.

At the bottom, we have Texas-Arlington (3-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (2-7), Texas St (2-8), and Troy (3-7).  Profiles are barren and SoSs are low.

Final predictions:  Whoever feels like winning this conference tourney (who the heck knows) will make the NCAAs.  There will probably be enough winning records for 2 CBI/CIT teams but no more.

State of the MAAC

Manhattan (9-2) has emerged with the best resume.  @LaSalle, and @South Carolina have emerged as wins, and they've compiled other weaker wins.  The SoS isn't strong enough to support an at-large bid, though.

The conference, at least according to the computers, is kind of dividing into haves and have nots.  In the first category, we have Iona (5-5), Canisius (8-3), Rider (5-5), and Quinnipiac (6-4).  They all have profiles with decent wins but no wins of actual note.

In the bottom half, we have Monmouth (6-6), Siena (4-8), Marist (3-9), Fairfield (2-9), Niagara (3-9), and St Peter's (3-7).  Marist in particular is kind of weird because they've won 3 in a row, including Bucknell.  But they're down here.

Final predictions:  Manhattan to the 14 line.  3 more teams to the CBI/CIT.

State of the Patriot

This conference is a bit more wide-open.  Bucknell (5-5) and Boston (7-5) are the co-favorites, probably.  Bucknell did win @Penn St and @Kent St but bricked out elsewhere, while Boston won @Maryland.

Among the chasers, Colgate (5-4), Holy Cross (6-5), and Lehigh (7-5) are closest based on record, but nothing in the profiles suggest they can match the top 2.  In the bottom half, Lafayette (3-6), American (3-7), Loyola(MD) (4-5), Army (4-5), and Navy (3-7) combine for no quality wins and some particularly harmful schedules.

Final predictions:  With the conference power rankings down a bit, I'm not sure the champion (let's say Boston) escapes the 15 line.  Bucknell to the CBI/CIT.

State of the Big West

UC Santa Barbara (6-4) has funneled to the top of the conference.  With a win @UNLV and vs. California, they're not at-large viable, but they are 13 seed viable.  Actually, all their losses are reasonable.  There's just one or two too many.  Sorry.

Long Beach St (1-9) played their usual ridiculous schedule, and binked one vs. USC.  They'll typically charge up to the front.  Hawaii (6-3) beat St Mary's, so they should be capable of hanging at the top as well.  UC Irvine (6-6) did win @Washington and @Denver, so maybe this is a 4-wide race.

The bottom half is more rough.  Cal Poly (2-7), Cal St-Fullerton (5-7), Cal-St Northridge (5-5), UC Riverside (3-7), and UC Davis (3-9) don't bring anything to the table.

Final prediction:  Who knows who'll win.  2 more to the CBI/CIT.  4 of 9 with winning records isn't bad.

State of the WAC

New Mexico St (9-5) is by far the class of the league.  Great SoS, won at New Mexico, swept UTEP, won at Hawaii, and none of the losses are damning.

Unfortunately, the rest of the conference is horrible.  Just horrible.  Seattle (6-4) seems to be second best, but even this profile is barren.  Idaho (5-7), Cal St-Bakersfield (5-7), Utah Valley (3-7), UMKC (3-7), Grand Canyon (2-6), Chicago St (3-7), Texas Pan American (3-9).  What a wasteland.  At least UMKC scheduled up.

And since the WAC is ragtag, let's give an honorable mention to the only independent, NJIT (6-8), who is not a factor this year.

Final prediction:  New Mexico St is the only team with a winning record, period.

State of the A-Sun

Mercer (6-4) is the class of the league, with a decent schedule and decent results (reasonable losses, beat Seton Hall, Denver, and Ole Miss).  Not enough for an at-large, but enough to scare people in March.

USC-Upstate (5-6) was supposed to be one contender.  They won @South Carolina and @Virginia Tech to show they're good enough to be 2nd.  However, FGCU (4-7) has fallen off the pace with marginal losses against a more marginal schedule.

In the depths of the conference, we have East Tennessee St (5-6), Lipscomb (4-6), North Florida (4-7), Northern Kentucky (4-7), Jacksonville (2-7), Kennesaw St (1-10), and Stetson (2-10).  I frankly don't think any of them make it to .500.

Final prediction:  USC-Upstate oughta secure a postseason berth of some kind.  Good on you.  Mercer upsets someone in March in the notable tournament.

State of the OVC

Boy, I missed on this conference.

Belmont (7-5) has the win over UNC in its pocket.  Can they be at-large contenders?  They did win @MTSU too.  But losses to South Dakota St, Denver, and Richmond are too much to overcome, probably.  With just one of those, they'd be fine.  But with 3?  Too many.  Still time to prove me wrong though.  One additional problem - the OVC is down and will take Belmont down with them.

What happened to my bold call of Eastern Kentucky (6-4)?  They had high-profile chance and missed them all.  They'll join Morehead St (7-6), Southeast Missouri St (6-4), and Murray St (3-6) as winning teams in the league.

The down teams in the conference are really down.  Take a look.  Tennessee Tech (5-7), Austin Peay (4-8), Jacksonville St (4-9), Tennessee-Martin (3-10), Tennessee St (0-12), Eastern Illinois (7-20), and SIUE (2-10).  Yuck.

Final prediction:  Obviously Belmont to the NCAAs, and 2 more to the CBI/CIT.