State of the conferences, part 1

State of the Big 12

Going into the season, I figured it to be a 2-man race between Kansas and Oklahoma St, with the rest mired in bubble discussion.  It's clear the conference will exceed those standards with a strong non-conference, particularly from Baylor and Iowa St in addition to Oklahoma St.

Kansas (8-3) has absorbed 3 losses, but all are quality (N-Villanova, @Colorado, @Florida), and they have N-Duke, N-New Mexico, and Georgetown as wins in their pocket.  Further, their current SoS is 1 and projected to stay there.  The committee will eat that stuff up.  A regular season Big 12 title will almost assuredly come with a 1 seed in March, as the Big 12 offers quality win chances.

Oklahoma St (11-1) has split with Memphis in the non-conference, and has a solid neutral court win over Colorado.  There's nothing signature in their profile yet, but the Big 12 will offer plenty of chances.  With a non-con SoS floating around 100th, getting a 1 seed might be out of reach without a truly dominant Big 12 season, but they'll be a protected seed in March.

Iowa St (10-0) is the revelation this year.  While there is no signature win, they have a very good pocket collection of wins (Michigan, @BYU, Iowa, Diamond Head classic wins).  Their outcome this year will be very variable depending on how exactly they fare in Big 12 play.  But a top seed is still in play.

Baylor (8-1) is the other team in the conference who can think about a really high seed.  Neutral court wins over Colorado and Kentucky are good anchors, with the only loss being to Syracuse in Maui.  Much like Iowa St, I think their outcome this year could swing wildly based on conference play.

Behind these 4, the bubble will form.  This means there are 8 conference games for the other teams to go grab a quality win.  Therefore, I expect definitely one and probably two more teams to make the NCAAs out of the Big 12.  The first obvious candidate is Oklahoma (11-1).  They have a shiny record against a top 150 non-con SoS.  The only loss (Michigan St) is excusable, but the best win might only be Mercer or N-Alabama.  Would 2-6 against the top four teams in the Big 12 be enough?  Texas (10-2) has a signature win at North Carolina and both losses are reasonable (Michigan St and N-BYU).  They're in a little better position than Oklahoma.

The bottom 4 in the league at least have built up winning records, to help bolster all the computer profiles in the league.  Kansas St (8-3) might be considered the disappointment of the conference, as losses to Northern Colorado and N-Charlotte have put them behind the 8-ball, although neither loss is terrible by any means.  The win of N-Gonzaga is the right first step on the way back to the bubble.  Is there room for 7 Big 12 teams in the NCAAs?  It's not out of the question.

West Virginia (7-5) doesn't really have a win of note and will serve mostly as fodder.  Ditto for Texas Tech (7-5), which has done the same with a bit softer non-con schedule.  TCU (7-3) has a nice record, but a very poor SoS so far, as their wins have nice names (Tulsa, Washington St, Mississippi St) but no heft behind them.  These 3 are pretty clearly the bottom 3 with no postseason hopes.

Final predictions:  I think there's room for 6 teams to make the NCAAs, with a 7th team in the NIT.  Let's call Oklahoma the odd team out, if I had to put my money on it.

State of the B1G

I figured this conference to be the deepest and meanest going into the year, and it's held form.  Conference play is going to be very brutal - and crucial - for all the teams.  Quality win chances are everywhere.

Michigan St (10-1) was the favorite heading in, and haven't done anything to really lose that designation (although others are trying to take it by force from them).  The loss to UNC is fine, and made up for with wins of N-Kentucky, N-Oklahoma, and @Texas.  Now, you might wonder if there's enough high-end wins right now, and the non-con SoS figures to hover around 50, which seems low.  But the B1G will offer all the quality win chances they need.

Wisconsin (12-0) might be the new favorite.  They are undefeated against a top 10 schedule so far.  The high-end wins of Florida, N-St Louis, Marquette are balanced by a solid depth of wins against teams between 50 and 200 in projected RPI.  Their computer numbers will be off the charts with solid avoidance of bad teams.  Again, their quality win chances will continue to come in bunches, but they can think about a 1 seed, especially with their computer numbers.

Ohio St (12-0) is the 3rd team that can think about the 1 line in March.  The schedule is good, but their problem is their wins are deteriorating (@Marquette, Maryland, N-Notre Dame, among others).  Their schedule looked much better in October.  However, as is the case with everyone in the B1G, conference play will have all the quality win chances they'll need.

Iowa (11-2) has made the leap forward to legitimate NCAA tournament team this year.  The non-con schedule (around 150) may be too low to harbor legitimate 1 seed hopes, but they'll be in protected seed range in March.  The 2 losses (N-Villanova, @Iowa St) are more than reasonable.  However, with their best wins of N-Xavier and Notre Dame, they could use a scalp or two against the top 3 to buttress the profile.

Michigan (7-4) is the disappointment, relatively speaking, for the B1G so far.  However, no loss is bad (@Iowa St, N-Charlotte, @Duke, Arizona), and they do have N-Florida St and N-Stanford in their pocket.  Their SoS numbers are actually deflated downward by a few harmful cupcakes, but they'll be fine barring a complete collapse.  They have put themselves behind the 8-ball for a top seed, though.

Beyond the top 5, the next 3 figure to comprise the B1G bubble this year.  Minnesota (9-2) did beat Florida St to home to help cancel out neutral court losses to Syracuse and Arkansas.  With a solid non-con SoS, they're probably looking at a .500 target in conference play to feel good about their postseason chances.  Illinois (10-2) doesn't have the SoS support, but does have N-Missouri in its pocket.  Losses to @Georgia Tech and N-Oregon aren't great but are manageable.  Again, .500 in conference play is the target.  Indiana (10-3) definitely doesn't have the SoS support, with the non-con languishing around 250.  No bad losses (@Syracuse, N-UConn, N-Notre Dame), but no quality wins either.  Target .500 and hope a couple quality wins are hidden in there.

The bottom 4 have winning records but little hope in a conference with this depth.  Purdue (10-3) has volume without quality in any part of the resume and can be safely discarded.  Penn St (9-4) did at least beat LaSalle and St John's, but lost other similar games and haven't done enough for serious consideration.  Nebraska (8-3) is in a similar situation to Penn St, as Miami and Georgia aren't good enough wins for our purposes.  Northwestern (7-5) doesn't even have the computer profile support to go with its marginal record, and figures to be last here.

Final predictions:  It's safe to say the top 5 teams will proceed to very good seeds, and I'd wager two of the three bubble teams will make the NCAAs.  Based on computer profiles, Indiana is the odd team out right now and headed to the NIT, but there's so many quality win chances in conference play, all three could make it...or they could all get beat up and two miss.  The bottom four will carry overall losing records.