This is part 29 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Cincinnati 16-2
Wichita St 14-4
Houston 14-4
Tulsa 12-6
Memphis 10-8
UCF 9-9
Temple 8-10
UConn 7-11
SMU 6-12
Tulane 5-13
East Carolina 4-14
South Florida 3-15
Format:
March 8-11. Orlando is the neutral site host this time.
Matchups:
1) Cincinnati vs. 8/9) SMU/UConn
4) Tulsa vs. 5/12) Memphis/South Florida
3) Houston vs. 6/11) UCF/East Carolina
2) Wichita St vs. 7/10) Temple/Tulane
The stakes:
Weirdly low stakes. 3 teams definitely off the bubble in one direction, and no one else even close. There's no bubble drama!
I was in hard on Cincy in January, seeding them aggressively. I backed off after a couple losses, but now with a road win at Wichita in tow? I'm back in. Could definitely be a 2 seed with a title here. Problem is, though....Sunday championship game. The committee will likely not consider any win they post on Sunday, and that win will be the difference between the 2 line and the 3 line. The committee has a history of underseeding Sunday tournament winners. Be prepared.
Wichita is on the 5 line, and frankly looking at it....the teams behind them aren't good enough to leapfrog them, and I can't find any way to move Wichita up to the 4 line. Wichita as a 5 might be my single most confident seed prediction in the entire field right now.
Houston's non-con SoS is 227. This likely means they're a half-step behind the others on the S-Curve.
Tulsa probably should be a NIT team. Temple is RPI 50 by the way. What do you do with them and the NIT? Or UCF at RPI 77? Odds are one make it, maybe even both, or maybe neither. Both are true bubble teams. Memphis is behind them, even though they have the better conference record.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
SEC tournament preview
This is part 28 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Auburn 13-5
Tennessee 13-5
Florida 11-7
Arkansas 10-8
Kentucky 10-8
Missouri 10-8
Mississippi St 9-9
Texas A&M 9-9
LSU 8-10
Alabama 8-10
Georgia 7-11
South Carolina 7-11
Vanderbilt 6-12
Ole Miss 5-13
Format:
March 7-11. St Louis is your neutral site host.
Matchups:
1) Auburn vs. 8/9) Texas A&M/Alabama
4) Kentucky vs. 5/12/13) Missouri/Georgia/Vanderbilt
3) Florida vs. 6/11/14) Arkansas/South Carolina/Ole Miss
2) Tennessee vs. 7/10) Mississippi St/LSU
The stakes:
Auburn and Tennessee are two teams with the 2 line (and a probable spot in the Nashville regional) at stake. The conference tourney takes increased importance for them - being able to plop a title on top of their resume likely gets either to the 2 line, IMO. Lose and you risk the 4 line. Pretty high stakes, IMO, given all the western sites will host the 4 seeds.
The SEC in general has been much better with their non-con SoS. Their fruit will bear major results this year again. Arkansas, Florida, and Kentucky are in various states on the S-curve, but are all obviously safe (we'll revisit Arky if they lose a dumb game). I'm inclined to put Texas A&M there too, as they did enough to climb out of the abyss.
The next tier is Missouri. I have them a step behind the tier of the 4 teams above, but I also think they're safe. Just don't lose to Georgia/Vandy.
With 7 teams solidly in, the fun starts at Alabama. Here's a team that's probably the first one in danger. 2 road wins all year is an issue. Their other metrics are more or less okay though, and they have high end wins (all at home except Florida, naturally). It's a tough situation to gauge because they did lose a lot of road games to questionable teams. Even if they had just handled 1 extra one (MSU or Vandy or Ole Miss) that makes all the difference in the world. If they lose to A&M? I really don't know what I'm going to do with them. It's tough to leave a team with wins over Auburn and Tennessee out, but, for example, Oklahoma St carries similar signature wins to the table. I'm inclined to believe beating A&M would be enough, but maybe not. In short, I don't have a good read on what the committee will do here. SoS is strong so maybe leaning in.
Beyond that, Georgia and Mississippi St and even South Carolina are probably too far gone. If they make a run to the finals, the signature wins that will accompany the run might make them a factor. But let's not deal with that. The NIT bubble is a mess with these teams and LSU, by the way. Good luck figuring those out.
Standings:
Auburn 13-5
Tennessee 13-5
Florida 11-7
Arkansas 10-8
Kentucky 10-8
Missouri 10-8
Mississippi St 9-9
Texas A&M 9-9
LSU 8-10
Alabama 8-10
Georgia 7-11
South Carolina 7-11
Vanderbilt 6-12
Ole Miss 5-13
Format:
March 7-11. St Louis is your neutral site host.
Matchups:
1) Auburn vs. 8/9) Texas A&M/Alabama
4) Kentucky vs. 5/12/13) Missouri/Georgia/Vanderbilt
3) Florida vs. 6/11/14) Arkansas/South Carolina/Ole Miss
2) Tennessee vs. 7/10) Mississippi St/LSU
The stakes:
Auburn and Tennessee are two teams with the 2 line (and a probable spot in the Nashville regional) at stake. The conference tourney takes increased importance for them - being able to plop a title on top of their resume likely gets either to the 2 line, IMO. Lose and you risk the 4 line. Pretty high stakes, IMO, given all the western sites will host the 4 seeds.
The SEC in general has been much better with their non-con SoS. Their fruit will bear major results this year again. Arkansas, Florida, and Kentucky are in various states on the S-curve, but are all obviously safe (we'll revisit Arky if they lose a dumb game). I'm inclined to put Texas A&M there too, as they did enough to climb out of the abyss.
The next tier is Missouri. I have them a step behind the tier of the 4 teams above, but I also think they're safe. Just don't lose to Georgia/Vandy.
With 7 teams solidly in, the fun starts at Alabama. Here's a team that's probably the first one in danger. 2 road wins all year is an issue. Their other metrics are more or less okay though, and they have high end wins (all at home except Florida, naturally). It's a tough situation to gauge because they did lose a lot of road games to questionable teams. Even if they had just handled 1 extra one (MSU or Vandy or Ole Miss) that makes all the difference in the world. If they lose to A&M? I really don't know what I'm going to do with them. It's tough to leave a team with wins over Auburn and Tennessee out, but, for example, Oklahoma St carries similar signature wins to the table. I'm inclined to believe beating A&M would be enough, but maybe not. In short, I don't have a good read on what the committee will do here. SoS is strong so maybe leaning in.
Beyond that, Georgia and Mississippi St and even South Carolina are probably too far gone. If they make a run to the finals, the signature wins that will accompany the run might make them a factor. But let's not deal with that. The NIT bubble is a mess with these teams and LSU, by the way. Good luck figuring those out.
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
3/7 S-CURVE
I'm continuing to move teams here and there and around. Expect tweaks.
I really like UNC's resume depth the more I look at it.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
The 2 line: North Carolina, Duke, Auburn, Michigan St
The 3 line: Tennessee, Purdue, Cincinnati, Michigan
The 4 line: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Arizona
The 5 line: Clemson, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
The 6 line: Miami, TCU, Kentucky, Texas A&M
The 7 line: Seton Hall, Creighton, Houston, Arkansas
The 8 line: Virginia Tech, Missouri, Butler, Nevada
The 9 line: Rhode Island, North Carolina St, St Mary's, Oklahoma
The 10 line: Florida St, Texas, Providence, USC
The 11 line: St Bonaventure, Arizona St, UCLA, Middle Tennessee, Kansas St
The 12 line: Marquette, Baylor, Loyola(Chi), New Mexico St, Buffalo
The 13 line: Charleston, South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro
The 14 line: Louisiana, Vermont, Bucknell, Montana
The 15 line: Wright St, UC-Davis, Iona, Lipscomb
The 16 line: Harvard, Radford, SE Louisiana, LIU Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Next 4 in:
Providence
USC
St Bonaventure
Arizona St
Last 4 in:
UCLA
Kansas St
Marquette
Baylor
Last 4 out:
Syracuse
Louisville
Alabama
Oklahoma St
Next 4 out:
Utah
Penn St
Nebraska
Notre Dame
I really like UNC's resume depth the more I look at it.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
The 2 line: North Carolina, Duke, Auburn, Michigan St
The 3 line: Tennessee, Purdue, Cincinnati, Michigan
The 4 line: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Arizona
The 5 line: Clemson, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
The 6 line: Miami, TCU, Kentucky, Texas A&M
The 7 line: Seton Hall, Creighton, Houston, Arkansas
The 8 line: Virginia Tech, Missouri, Butler, Nevada
The 9 line: Rhode Island, North Carolina St, St Mary's, Oklahoma
The 10 line: Florida St, Texas, Providence, USC
The 11 line: St Bonaventure, Arizona St, UCLA, Middle Tennessee, Kansas St
The 12 line: Marquette, Baylor, Loyola(Chi), New Mexico St, Buffalo
The 13 line: Charleston, South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro
The 14 line: Louisiana, Vermont, Bucknell, Montana
The 15 line: Wright St, UC-Davis, Iona, Lipscomb
The 16 line: Harvard, Radford, SE Louisiana, LIU Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Next 4 in:
Providence
USC
St Bonaventure
Arizona St
Last 4 in:
UCLA
Kansas St
Marquette
Baylor
Last 4 out:
Syracuse
Louisville
Alabama
Oklahoma St
Next 4 out:
Utah
Penn St
Nebraska
Notre Dame
3/6 recap
Very light day for analysis purposes.
WCC final:
Gonzaga 74, BYU 54
Horizon final:
Wright St 74, Cleveland St 57
CAA final:
Charleston 83, Northeastern 76 - is Northeastern an NIT at-large team?
Summit final:
South Dakota St 97, South Dakota 87
NEC final:
LIU Brooklyn 71, Wagner 61
ACC 1st round:
Boston College 87, Georgia Tech 77
Notre Dame 67, Pitt 64
Syracuse 73, Wake Forest 64 - service holds from our first major bubble teams of the week
A-East semis:
Vermont 70, Stony Brook 51
UMBC 75, Hartford 60 - top 2 hold serve here
SWAC quarters:
UAPB 77, Mississippi Valley St 73
Southern 62, Jackson St 60
Texas Southern 90, Alabama St 76
Prairie View A&M 87, Alcorn St 71
Big Sky 1st round:
North Dakota 76, Montana St 74
Portland St 71, Sacramento St 67
Northern Colorado 82, Northern Arizona 59
Southern Utah 76, Idaho St 68
MEAC 1st round:
Florida A&M 88, Howard 78
NC Central 60, Coppin St 48
Morgan St 83, South Carolina St 80
WCC final:
Gonzaga 74, BYU 54
Horizon final:
Wright St 74, Cleveland St 57
CAA final:
Charleston 83, Northeastern 76 - is Northeastern an NIT at-large team?
Summit final:
South Dakota St 97, South Dakota 87
NEC final:
LIU Brooklyn 71, Wagner 61
ACC 1st round:
Boston College 87, Georgia Tech 77
Notre Dame 67, Pitt 64
Syracuse 73, Wake Forest 64 - service holds from our first major bubble teams of the week
A-East semis:
Vermont 70, Stony Brook 51
UMBC 75, Hartford 60 - top 2 hold serve here
SWAC quarters:
UAPB 77, Mississippi Valley St 73
Southern 62, Jackson St 60
Texas Southern 90, Alabama St 76
Prairie View A&M 87, Alcorn St 71
Big Sky 1st round:
North Dakota 76, Montana St 74
Portland St 71, Sacramento St 67
Northern Colorado 82, Northern Arizona 59
Southern Utah 76, Idaho St 68
MEAC 1st round:
Florida A&M 88, Howard 78
NC Central 60, Coppin St 48
Morgan St 83, South Carolina St 80
Sun Belt conference tournament preview
This is part 27 of a 32-part preview.
Standings:
Louisiana 16-2
Georgia St 12-6
Georgia Southern 11-7
Texas-Arlington 10-8
Louisiana-Monroe 9-9
Troy 9-9
Appalachian St 9-9
Coastal Carolina 8-10
South Alabama 7-11
Texas St 7-11
Arkansas St 6-12
Arkansas-Little Rock 4-14
Format:
Neutral site in New Orleans from March 7-11.
Matchups:
1) Louisiana vs. 8/9) Coastal Carolina/Texas St
4) UT-Arlington vs. 5/12) Appalachian St/Little Rock
3) Georgia Southern vs. 6/11) Troy/Arkansas St
2) Georgia St vs. 7/10) Louisiana-Monroe/South Alabama
The stakes:
CRPI 21, and only one team sub-120 RPI. Louisiana ran away with the conference but has absolutely zero substance behind their 60 RPI. So their seed could fluctuate a bit. Raw RPI numbers might suggest a 13. Conference ranking suggests 14 maybe? It's tough to know what the committee will do here. This much is certain though: anyone else is in direct path of the 16 line, and maybe even Dayton if it's a 5 seed or below.
The two Georgias and UTA are in line for CBI/CIT bids if they want them.
Standings:
Louisiana 16-2
Georgia St 12-6
Georgia Southern 11-7
Texas-Arlington 10-8
Louisiana-Monroe 9-9
Troy 9-9
Appalachian St 9-9
Coastal Carolina 8-10
South Alabama 7-11
Texas St 7-11
Arkansas St 6-12
Arkansas-Little Rock 4-14
Format:
Neutral site in New Orleans from March 7-11.
Matchups:
1) Louisiana vs. 8/9) Coastal Carolina/Texas St
4) UT-Arlington vs. 5/12) Appalachian St/Little Rock
3) Georgia Southern vs. 6/11) Troy/Arkansas St
2) Georgia St vs. 7/10) Louisiana-Monroe/South Alabama
The stakes:
CRPI 21, and only one team sub-120 RPI. Louisiana ran away with the conference but has absolutely zero substance behind their 60 RPI. So their seed could fluctuate a bit. Raw RPI numbers might suggest a 13. Conference ranking suggests 14 maybe? It's tough to know what the committee will do here. This much is certain though: anyone else is in direct path of the 16 line, and maybe even Dayton if it's a 5 seed or below.
The two Georgias and UTA are in line for CBI/CIT bids if they want them.
A-10 conference tournament preview
This is part 26 of a 32-part preview.
Standings:
Rhode Island 15-3
St Bonaventure 14-4
Davidson 13-5
St Joseph's 10-8
VCU 9-9
St Louis 9-9
George Mason 9-9
Richmond 9-9
Dayton 8-10
Duquesne 7-11
George Washington 7-11
LaSalle 7-11
UMass 5-13
Fordham 4-14
Format:
March 7-11. Washington DC is the neutral site host.
Matchups:
1) Rhode Island vs. 8/9) VCU/Dayton
4) St Joseph's vs. 5/12/13) George Mason/LaSalle/UMass
3) Davidson vs. 6/11/14) St Louis/George Washington/Fordham
2) St Bonaventure vs. 7/10) Richmond/Duquesne
The stakes:
The A-10 had a spectacular tire fire of a season. 11th in CRPI is absolutely terrible for them, and they are littered with teams who absorbed a million losses in the non-con. Only 3 teams better than 10 wins in conference just hammers home the point. It was a catastrophe.
URI is home free; teams with a non-con SoS of 3 get in as long as the rest of the resume is reasonable. And it is. Seeding is another issue though. The predictive metrics hate, hate hate them. It'll affect seeding but not selection.
Bonaventure is the tricky one to figure out. They have a road win at Syracuse in their pocket; it's a very important piece of resume at the moment. Their win over Maryland evaporated into very little; they also played plenty of stout mid-majors (Northeastern, Vermont, Buffalo) to make the profile look much more stouter than it is. However, on the other hand, the committee likes teams that load up on quality mid-majors in the non-con. For that reason, I think Bonaventure might be safe as long as they beat the teams they should. They split with Davidson in the regular season; I'd rather see them beat them again.
Davidson's a NIT bubble team; There's actually not a lot of meat on their resume bone but might get some NIT love based on the conference name alone. Everyone else can go boycott the CBI and CIT as they are wont to do.
Standings:
Rhode Island 15-3
St Bonaventure 14-4
Davidson 13-5
St Joseph's 10-8
VCU 9-9
St Louis 9-9
George Mason 9-9
Richmond 9-9
Dayton 8-10
Duquesne 7-11
George Washington 7-11
LaSalle 7-11
UMass 5-13
Fordham 4-14
Format:
March 7-11. Washington DC is the neutral site host.
Matchups:
1) Rhode Island vs. 8/9) VCU/Dayton
4) St Joseph's vs. 5/12/13) George Mason/LaSalle/UMass
3) Davidson vs. 6/11/14) St Louis/George Washington/Fordham
2) St Bonaventure vs. 7/10) Richmond/Duquesne
The stakes:
The A-10 had a spectacular tire fire of a season. 11th in CRPI is absolutely terrible for them, and they are littered with teams who absorbed a million losses in the non-con. Only 3 teams better than 10 wins in conference just hammers home the point. It was a catastrophe.
URI is home free; teams with a non-con SoS of 3 get in as long as the rest of the resume is reasonable. And it is. Seeding is another issue though. The predictive metrics hate, hate hate them. It'll affect seeding but not selection.
Bonaventure is the tricky one to figure out. They have a road win at Syracuse in their pocket; it's a very important piece of resume at the moment. Their win over Maryland evaporated into very little; they also played plenty of stout mid-majors (Northeastern, Vermont, Buffalo) to make the profile look much more stouter than it is. However, on the other hand, the committee likes teams that load up on quality mid-majors in the non-con. For that reason, I think Bonaventure might be safe as long as they beat the teams they should. They split with Davidson in the regular season; I'd rather see them beat them again.
Davidson's a NIT bubble team; There's actually not a lot of meat on their resume bone but might get some NIT love based on the conference name alone. Everyone else can go boycott the CBI and CIT as they are wont to do.
Southland conference tournament preview
This is part 25 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
SE Louisiana 15-3
Nicholls St 15-3
Stephen F Austin 14-4
Sam Houston St 12-6
Lamar 11-7
New Orleans 11-7
Central Arkansas 10-8
Abilene Christian 8-10
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 8-10
McNeese St 8-10
Incarnate Word 2-16
Houston Baptist 2-16
Northwestern St 1-17
Format:
March 7-11, Katy TX. Southland likes to chop off the dead weight, so only the top 8 teams go. But they go even further, staggering the brackets and giving double byes to the top 2 seeds and single byes to the 3 and 4. Protect those good teams!
Matchups:
1) SE Louisiana vs. 4/5/8) Sam Houston St/New Orleans/TAMU-CC
2) Nicholls St vs. 3/6/7) Stephen F Austin/Lamar/Central Arkansas
The stakes:
This is the worst conference this year outside of the two HBCUs. So, um, how does a visit to Dayton sound? Possible, perhaps even probable, SELA or Nicholls could avoid it with upsets elsewhere filling in the slots in Dayton, but yeah, there's not much to see here.
Stephen F Austin went 21-6 and has an RPI of 129. That says everything you need to know about all the SoS numbers in this conference. SHSU and Lamar are above .500 in addition to the top 3, if you're scouting potential CIT opponents.
Standings:
SE Louisiana 15-3
Nicholls St 15-3
Stephen F Austin 14-4
Sam Houston St 12-6
Lamar 11-7
New Orleans 11-7
Central Arkansas 10-8
Abilene Christian 8-10
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 8-10
McNeese St 8-10
Incarnate Word 2-16
Houston Baptist 2-16
Northwestern St 1-17
Format:
March 7-11, Katy TX. Southland likes to chop off the dead weight, so only the top 8 teams go. But they go even further, staggering the brackets and giving double byes to the top 2 seeds and single byes to the 3 and 4. Protect those good teams!
Matchups:
1) SE Louisiana vs. 4/5/8) Sam Houston St/New Orleans/TAMU-CC
2) Nicholls St vs. 3/6/7) Stephen F Austin/Lamar/Central Arkansas
The stakes:
This is the worst conference this year outside of the two HBCUs. So, um, how does a visit to Dayton sound? Possible, perhaps even probable, SELA or Nicholls could avoid it with upsets elsewhere filling in the slots in Dayton, but yeah, there's not much to see here.
Stephen F Austin went 21-6 and has an RPI of 129. That says everything you need to know about all the SoS numbers in this conference. SHSU and Lamar are above .500 in addition to the top 3, if you're scouting potential CIT opponents.
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