@Rutgers 78, Maryland 67 - I still want to see a road win from Rutgers just to be sure, but this will alleviate some pressure
Michigan St 79, @Penn St 71 - MSU now clearly separating and have a strong likelihood of sneaking onto the 4 line, IMO
Purdue 77, @Iowa 68 - ah, crap, we have to take Purdue seriously now. Remember, this is just step 1 of several they need
Texas 52, @Oklahoma 51 - the plot thickens on the bubble. Now I'm really, really taking Texas seriously
West Virginia 77, @Iowa St 71
Tennessee 81, @Kentucky 73 - PUT EVERYONE ON THE 3 LINE
@South Carolina 83, Mississippi St 71
Vanderbilt 87, @Alabama 79 - that's a bubble-ending loss
Syracuse 84, @Boston College 71
@DePaul 69, Marquette 68 - that'll cost a seed line, maybe
Cincinnati 79, @South Florida 67 - road wins are never trivial
@Richmond 80, Davidson 63
Duquesne 80, @VCU 77 (OT)
Stephen F Austin 77, @Abilene Christian 72
A-Fun quarters:
Stetson 82, North Alabama 72
Liberty 55, NJIT 49
North Florida 91, Jacksonville 88
Lipscomb 68, FGCU 63 - service holds up and down the line in the A-Fun
Big South 1st round:
Charleston Southern 81, Presbyterian 64
UNC Asheville 72, Campbell 68
South Carolina Upstate 69, High Point 59
Horizon 1st round:
Oakland 80, Cleveland St 59
Youngstown St 63, Milwaukee 57
UIC 93, IUPUI 59
Patriot 1st round:
Lehigh 78, Loyola(MD) 75
Bucknell 65, Holy Cross 62
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Monday, March 2, 2020
3/2 recap
We're probably not doing conference tourney previews. We'll just handle results as they roll in.
@Duke 88, NC State 69 - if you split a season series with Duke, you're doing ok. Just don't lose to Wake now ok. A Q2 win for Duke, which might matter more than you think.
@Baylor 71, Texas Tech 68 (OT) - man, now what for TTU. Kansas still to go, and a very probable chance of another bubble team in their 1st game in the conference tourney. Can they survive 18-14 with their resume?
@Duke 88, NC State 69 - if you split a season series with Duke, you're doing ok. Just don't lose to Wake now ok. A Q2 win for Duke, which might matter more than you think.
@Baylor 71, Texas Tech 68 (OT) - man, now what for TTU. Kansas still to go, and a very probable chance of another bubble team in their 1st game in the conference tourney. Can they survive 18-14 with their resume?
3/2 BRACKET
Hey, BYU didn't fuck anything up this time.
A little imbalance in the regions, but there's no clean way to get any closer without starting to touch the 2 line. So I left it as is.
MIDWEST 32
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
8) Illinois vs. 9) Florida
@Cleveland
4) Louisville vs. 13) Yale
5) Penn St vs. 12) Stanford/Xavier
@St Louis
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Belmont
6) Butler vs. 11) Northern Iowa
@Albany
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) Colgate
7) BYU vs. 10) USC
EAST 34
@Sacramento
1) San Diego St vs. 16) Siena
8) St Mary's vs. 9) Texas Tech
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) Vermont
5) Iowa vs. 12) Liberty
@Albany
3) Villanova vs. 14) Hofstra
6) West Virginia vs. 11) Richmond
@Cleveland
2) Dayton vs. 15) Wright St
7) Marquette vs. 10) North Carolina St
WEST 36
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Montana
8) LSU vs. 9) Arizona St
@Tampa
4) Michigan St vs. 13) Akron
5) Colorado vs. 12) Rutgers/Providence
@St Louis
3) Creighton vs. 14) New Mexico St
6) Wisconsin vs. 11) Wichita St
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Arkansas-Little Rock
7) Arizona vs. 10) Oklahoma
SOUTH 34
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Radford/North Carolina A&T
8) Houston vs. 9) Indiana
@Sacramento
4) Auburn vs. 13) North Texas
5) Ohio St vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
@Tampa
3) Florida St vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Michigan vs. 11) UCLA
@Greensboro
2) Maryland vs. 15) North Dakota St
7) Virginia vs. 10) East Tennessee St
A little imbalance in the regions, but there's no clean way to get any closer without starting to touch the 2 line. So I left it as is.
MIDWEST 32
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) Robert Morris/Prairie View A&M
8) Illinois vs. 9) Florida
@Cleveland
4) Louisville vs. 13) Yale
5) Penn St vs. 12) Stanford/Xavier
@St Louis
3) Kentucky vs. 14) Belmont
6) Butler vs. 11) Northern Iowa
@Albany
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) Colgate
7) BYU vs. 10) USC
EAST 34
@Sacramento
1) San Diego St vs. 16) Siena
8) St Mary's vs. 9) Texas Tech
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) Vermont
5) Iowa vs. 12) Liberty
@Albany
3) Villanova vs. 14) Hofstra
6) West Virginia vs. 11) Richmond
@Cleveland
2) Dayton vs. 15) Wright St
7) Marquette vs. 10) North Carolina St
WEST 36
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Montana
8) LSU vs. 9) Arizona St
@Tampa
4) Michigan St vs. 13) Akron
5) Colorado vs. 12) Rutgers/Providence
@St Louis
3) Creighton vs. 14) New Mexico St
6) Wisconsin vs. 11) Wichita St
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Arkansas-Little Rock
7) Arizona vs. 10) Oklahoma
SOUTH 34
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Radford/North Carolina A&T
8) Houston vs. 9) Indiana
@Sacramento
4) Auburn vs. 13) North Texas
5) Ohio St vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
@Tampa
3) Florida St vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Michigan vs. 11) UCLA
@Greensboro
2) Maryland vs. 15) North Dakota St
7) Virginia vs. 10) East Tennessee St
Sunday, March 1, 2020
3/2 SEED LIST
Scrub a dub dub
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Maryland, Duke
The 3 line: Florida St, Villanova, Creighton, Kentucky
The 4 line: Louisville, Michigan St, Oregon, Auburn
The 5 line: Penn St, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio St
The 6 line: Butler, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 7 line: BYU, Virginia, Marquette, Arizona
The 8 line: Illinois, Houston, LSU, St Mary's
The 9 line: Texas Tech, Florida, Indiana, Arizona St
The 10 line: Oklahoma, East Tennessee St, USC, North Carolina St
The 11 line: Northern Iowa, Richmond, Wichita St, UCLA
The 12 line: Rutgers, Stanford, Xavier, Providence, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line: Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line: Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Montana, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Next 4 in:
*East Tennessee St
USC
North Carolina St
*Northern Iowa
Richmond
Wichita St
Last 4 in:
Rutgers
Stanford
Xavier
*UCLA
Providence
Last 4 out:
Rhode Island
Utah St
Texas
Cincinnati
Next 4 out:
Purdue
Mississippi St
Alabama
Clemson
Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 7
Pac-12 7
Big 12 5
ACC 5
SEC 4
WCC 3
AAC 2
A-10 2
The 1 line: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Maryland, Duke
The 3 line: Florida St, Villanova, Creighton, Kentucky
The 4 line: Louisville, Michigan St, Oregon, Auburn
The 5 line: Penn St, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio St
The 6 line: Butler, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 7 line: BYU, Virginia, Marquette, Arizona
The 8 line: Illinois, Houston, LSU, St Mary's
The 9 line: Texas Tech, Florida, Indiana, Arizona St
The 10 line: Oklahoma, East Tennessee St, USC, North Carolina St
The 11 line: Northern Iowa, Richmond, Wichita St, UCLA
The 12 line: Rutgers, Stanford, Xavier, Providence, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line: Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line: Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line: Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line: Montana, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Next 4 in:
*East Tennessee St
USC
North Carolina St
*Northern Iowa
Richmond
Wichita St
Last 4 in:
Rutgers
Stanford
Xavier
*UCLA
Providence
Last 4 out:
Rhode Island
Utah St
Texas
Cincinnati
Next 4 out:
Purdue
Mississippi St
Alabama
Clemson
Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 7
Pac-12 7
Big 12 5
ACC 5
SEC 4
WCC 3
AAC 2
A-10 2
3/1 recap
@St John's 91, Creighton 71 - oh for christ's sake Creighton
Xavier 66, @Georgetown 63 - road wins are never trivial
@Louisville 68, Virginia Tech 52
@Ohio St 77, Michigan 63
@Illinois 67, Indiana 66
@Wisconsin 71, Minnesota 69 - man, Minnesota...
@Stanford 72, Colorado 64 - well here we go. Pac-12 starting to figure out the formula to maximize at-large bids
@Houston 68, Cincinnati 55
Wichita St 66, @SMU 62 - road wins are never trivial, and this one makes me feel a bit easier about putting WSU in the field
St Louis 72, @Rhode Island 62 - uh oh. URI spending a lot of the goodwill it had built up in previous weeks
Xavier 66, @Georgetown 63 - road wins are never trivial
@Louisville 68, Virginia Tech 52
@Ohio St 77, Michigan 63
@Illinois 67, Indiana 66
@Wisconsin 71, Minnesota 69 - man, Minnesota...
@Stanford 72, Colorado 64 - well here we go. Pac-12 starting to figure out the formula to maximize at-large bids
@Houston 68, Cincinnati 55
Wichita St 66, @SMU 62 - road wins are never trivial, and this one makes me feel a bit easier about putting WSU in the field
St Louis 72, @Rhode Island 62 - uh oh. URI spending a lot of the goodwill it had built up in previous weeks
Bubble watch: the rest
East Tennessee St (24-4) (16-2) NET 41 SoS 131
Vital signs: 11-3 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 203
1-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @LSU, @UNCG, Furman?
Bad losses: Mercer
Put this team in the tournament, jerks.
Liberty (25-4) (13-3) NET 64 SoS 319
Vital signs: 13-4 R/N, non-con SoS 223, avg win 259
0-1 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Akron
Bad losses: @Lipscomb, @Stetson are Q4
A courtesy listing, given their record. That SoS is a non-starter. No true quality wins.
Stephen F Austin (23-3) (17-1) NET 79 SoS 339
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 189, avg win 272
1-2 vs. Q1, 0-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Duke
Bad losses: TAMU-CC
See Liberty....but instead they binked a roadie at Duke. Makes all the difference. It's still a big ask. They played 21 Q4 games. 2 Q3 games. Oof. The SoS is just too terrible. If they had a second win to point do beyond Duke, I'd love their chances. It wouldn't even have to be a Q1 win, just a Q2 win or game. They did lose at Rutgers and Bama. Needed a couple more chances.
NIT watch:
Akron (20-7) (12-4) NET 76 SoS 95 - if they lose the regular season to Bowling Green in the MAC, they'll be in range of the NIT. But with no Q1/2 wins, they're not viable.
Furman (22-6) (15-3) NET 65 SoS 155 - a couple Q2 wins in conference play, but a very plain non-con makes the case a bit dicey. True borderline case for the NIT
UNC Greensboro (21-8) (13-5) NET 78 SoS 127 - they have road wins at Georgetown and Vermont to add some spice to this resume, and did win at Furman...but dropped a couple more road games in conference play. This is a case where I could see them leapfrog Furman for a NIT at-large bid. Frankly, they should both be in though.
Yale (20-6) (10-2) NET 62 SoS 237 - if they lose the Ivy regular season to Harvard, there's an outside case here. Win at Clemson is gaining steam, but it's about all they have on the resume.
Vital signs: 11-3 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 203
1-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @LSU, @UNCG, Furman?
Bad losses: Mercer
Put this team in the tournament, jerks.
Liberty (25-4) (13-3) NET 64 SoS 319
Vital signs: 13-4 R/N, non-con SoS 223, avg win 259
0-1 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Akron
Bad losses: @Lipscomb, @Stetson are Q4
A courtesy listing, given their record. That SoS is a non-starter. No true quality wins.
Stephen F Austin (23-3) (17-1) NET 79 SoS 339
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 189, avg win 272
1-2 vs. Q1, 0-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Duke
Bad losses: TAMU-CC
See Liberty....but instead they binked a roadie at Duke. Makes all the difference. It's still a big ask. They played 21 Q4 games. 2 Q3 games. Oof. The SoS is just too terrible. If they had a second win to point do beyond Duke, I'd love their chances. It wouldn't even have to be a Q1 win, just a Q2 win or game. They did lose at Rutgers and Bama. Needed a couple more chances.
NIT watch:
Akron (20-7) (12-4) NET 76 SoS 95 - if they lose the regular season to Bowling Green in the MAC, they'll be in range of the NIT. But with no Q1/2 wins, they're not viable.
Furman (22-6) (15-3) NET 65 SoS 155 - a couple Q2 wins in conference play, but a very plain non-con makes the case a bit dicey. True borderline case for the NIT
UNC Greensboro (21-8) (13-5) NET 78 SoS 127 - they have road wins at Georgetown and Vermont to add some spice to this resume, and did win at Furman...but dropped a couple more road games in conference play. This is a case where I could see them leapfrog Furman for a NIT at-large bid. Frankly, they should both be in though.
Yale (20-6) (10-2) NET 62 SoS 237 - if they lose the Ivy regular season to Harvard, there's an outside case here. Win at Clemson is gaining steam, but it's about all they have on the resume.
Bubble watch: MVC/MWC/WCC
Lockbox:
Gonzaga (29-2) (15-1) NET 2 SoS 136
Vital signs: 12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 282, avg win 160
5-2 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: BYU, @Arizona, N-Oregon
Bad losses: none
Hilariously, their non-con SoS might be the one thing that knocks them off the 1 line. Seriously, 282 is a number we usually see serve as a disqualifier for the 1 line. The dirty secret of their schedule is that they absorbed a lot of home cupcakes, and all the good teams they played went in the tank (except the ones they ran into in Atlantis).
San Diego St (27-1) (17-1) NET 4 SoS 106
Vital signs: 14-0 R/N, non-con SoS 140, avg win 154
4-0 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Creighton, @BYU, N-Iowa
Bad losses: UNLV
Reminder that the regular season is over for the MWC, so at most SDSU can take one dumb loss. I'm not feeling great about the contenders for their spot...I don't think Dayton can catch them, the ACC is being dumb, Maryland is losing...this is close to becoming a lock for them.
BYU (23-7) (13-3) NET 10 SoS 35
Vital signs: 10-6 R/N, non-con SoS 9, avg win 144
3-4 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Gonzaga, @Houston, N-Utah St
Bad losses: @San Fran? @Boise?
Since they're out of regular season games, we can lock them in. A good solid collection of Q1/2 wins. And some of their Q1 losses were to elite teams (Kansas, SDSU, Gonzaga), so the penalty isn't as severe as one might assume. They're safe.
Bubble:
St Mary's (23-7) (11-5) NET 31 SoS 59
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 95, avg win 162
3-4 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: BYU, N-Wisky, N-ASU
Bad losses: Santa Clara, Winthrop
Two ugly home losses in Q3 keep them from the lockbox. Considering their 4 Q1 losses are all inside the NET Top 10, they're better off than you think. They won enough against a reasonably good non-con schedule, so I think they're home free. Just want to see them avoid a dumb loss first.
Northern Iowa (23-5) (14-4) NET 37 SoS 118
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 136, avg win 164
1-1 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Colorado, N-S Carolina
Bad losses: @SIU, @Illinois St
@Colorado is a trump card that they can use...not sure if it's enough. 5 wins inside the top 2 quads isn't great, but they lacked overall opportunities. 8-4 in true road games...is that good enough to forgive 2 dumb Q3 road losses? It's right on the edge.
Utah St (21-8) (12-6) NET 38 SoS 119
Vital signs: 8-7 R/N, non-con SoS 89, avg win 178
2-4 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-LSU, N-Florida, N-North Texas?
Bad losses: @AFA, @New Mexico
They're below .500 in true road games at 4-6. That might be the death knell. 6-4 would've looked so much better, and would've removed a couple marginal losses. They took a couple too many, it would appear.
NIT Watch:
Pacific (21-9) (11-5) NET 106 SoS 186 - they're your 4th place WCC team, and they beat St Mary's, but that's about it. Don't really see them as NIT viable. Maybe San Francisco gets a look instead, but I'm guessing the number of postseason teams in the WCC ends at 3.
Nevada (19-11) (12-6) NET 88 SoS 103 - there's a bunch of MWC teams clustered close together, resume-wise. UNLV, Colorado St, Boise St are all next to each other in the standings. I'm not sure I can make the case for any of them to go to the NIT, but if someone does, I very hesitantly lean towards Nevada. I don't have much conviction, though.
Loyola(Chi) (20-10) (13-5) NET 98 SoS 169 - if this is the 2nd best resume in the MVC, no one from the MVC is going to the NIT.
Gonzaga (29-2) (15-1) NET 2 SoS 136
Vital signs: 12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 282, avg win 160
5-2 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: BYU, @Arizona, N-Oregon
Bad losses: none
Hilariously, their non-con SoS might be the one thing that knocks them off the 1 line. Seriously, 282 is a number we usually see serve as a disqualifier for the 1 line. The dirty secret of their schedule is that they absorbed a lot of home cupcakes, and all the good teams they played went in the tank (except the ones they ran into in Atlantis).
San Diego St (27-1) (17-1) NET 4 SoS 106
Vital signs: 14-0 R/N, non-con SoS 140, avg win 154
4-0 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-Creighton, @BYU, N-Iowa
Bad losses: UNLV
Reminder that the regular season is over for the MWC, so at most SDSU can take one dumb loss. I'm not feeling great about the contenders for their spot...I don't think Dayton can catch them, the ACC is being dumb, Maryland is losing...this is close to becoming a lock for them.
BYU (23-7) (13-3) NET 10 SoS 35
Vital signs: 10-6 R/N, non-con SoS 9, avg win 144
3-4 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Gonzaga, @Houston, N-Utah St
Bad losses: @San Fran? @Boise?
Since they're out of regular season games, we can lock them in. A good solid collection of Q1/2 wins. And some of their Q1 losses were to elite teams (Kansas, SDSU, Gonzaga), so the penalty isn't as severe as one might assume. They're safe.
Bubble:
St Mary's (23-7) (11-5) NET 31 SoS 59
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 95, avg win 162
3-4 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: BYU, N-Wisky, N-ASU
Bad losses: Santa Clara, Winthrop
Two ugly home losses in Q3 keep them from the lockbox. Considering their 4 Q1 losses are all inside the NET Top 10, they're better off than you think. They won enough against a reasonably good non-con schedule, so I think they're home free. Just want to see them avoid a dumb loss first.
Northern Iowa (23-5) (14-4) NET 37 SoS 118
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 136, avg win 164
1-1 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @Colorado, N-S Carolina
Bad losses: @SIU, @Illinois St
@Colorado is a trump card that they can use...not sure if it's enough. 5 wins inside the top 2 quads isn't great, but they lacked overall opportunities. 8-4 in true road games...is that good enough to forgive 2 dumb Q3 road losses? It's right on the edge.
Utah St (21-8) (12-6) NET 38 SoS 119
Vital signs: 8-7 R/N, non-con SoS 89, avg win 178
2-4 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: N-LSU, N-Florida, N-North Texas?
Bad losses: @AFA, @New Mexico
They're below .500 in true road games at 4-6. That might be the death knell. 6-4 would've looked so much better, and would've removed a couple marginal losses. They took a couple too many, it would appear.
NIT Watch:
Pacific (21-9) (11-5) NET 106 SoS 186 - they're your 4th place WCC team, and they beat St Mary's, but that's about it. Don't really see them as NIT viable. Maybe San Francisco gets a look instead, but I'm guessing the number of postseason teams in the WCC ends at 3.
Nevada (19-11) (12-6) NET 88 SoS 103 - there's a bunch of MWC teams clustered close together, resume-wise. UNLV, Colorado St, Boise St are all next to each other in the standings. I'm not sure I can make the case for any of them to go to the NIT, but if someone does, I very hesitantly lean towards Nevada. I don't have much conviction, though.
Loyola(Chi) (20-10) (13-5) NET 98 SoS 169 - if this is the 2nd best resume in the MVC, no one from the MVC is going to the NIT.
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