1/21 - 1/24 recap

B1G:
@Michigan St 69, Maryland 55 - a quality win, but no real change in either team's forecast
@Rutgers 76, Nebraska 69 - stupid loss of the week
@Michigan 59, Minnesota 57 - I dropped them to the 2 line recently...really they're a 1 seed IMO, and it's just a case of no room at the inn on the 1 line right now.  I think there's room for two B1G teams on the 1 line if push comes to shove
@Northwestern 73, Indiana 66 - time to legitimately worry about Indiana.  Remember, the B1G is deep, it'll be really easy for UI to finish 12th or something and really ruin a resume
Purdue 79, @Ohio St 67
Wisconsin 72, @Illinois 60
Michigan St 82, @Iowa 67 - Spartans comin'

Big 12:
@Kansas 80, Iowa St 76 - KU just feels like a 2 seed this year, don't they?
Baylor 85, @West Virginia 73 - road wins are never trivial
@Kansas St 58, Texas Tech 45
@TCU 65, Texas 61
Oklahoma 70, @Oklahoma St 61 - confidence in my Big 12 forecast is increasing.  6 teams in the lockbox, and Texas/Baylor playing down to the bubble

ACC:
@North Carolina 103, Virginia Tech 82 - I can see VT lagging behind the top 3 teams in the ACC a bit....is a 4 seed their reasonable ceiling?  I think so
Duke 79, @Pittsburgh 64
@Virginia 68, Wake Forest 45
@Georgia Tech 63, Notre Dame 61
@Florida St 77, Clemson 68
@Louisville 84, NC State 77 - both teams in good shape, this is more of a status quo result for both teams
@Syracuse 73, Miami 53

Big East:
Creighton 91, @Georgetown 87
Villanova 80, @Butler 72
@Marquette 79, DePaul 69
Providence 64, @Xavier 62

SEC:
@Kentucky 76, Mississippi St 55
@South Carolina 80, Auburn 77 - okay, now it's time to really start dropping Auburn down the board
@Alabama 74, Ole Miss 53 - important service hold for Bama's at-large chances.  They seem to be the one SEC really on that bubble, and Ole Miss is ahead of it for now
@Florida 81, Texas A&M 72
Tennessee 88, @Vanderbilt 83 (OT)
@LSU 92, Georgia 82
@Arkansas 72, Missouri 60

AAC:
@Houston 94, East Carolina 50
UCF 75, @Tulane 50
@Cincinnati 88, Tulsa 64
@Temple 85, Memphis 76 - I'm feeling more confident that between the 4 contenders, the AAC will get 3 in

A-10:
@Rhode Island 71, VCU 65 - not an easy ask, but it's still a loss VCU and the A-10 as a whole really can't afford
@Duquesne 77, St Louis 73 - ditto. 
@Davidson 73, George Washington 62

MAC:
@Northern Illinois 77, Buffalo 75 - oof
@Kent St 87, Toledo 85 (OT) - it was already probably endgame for Toledo's at-large chances, but this should just about do it.  MAC is actually pretty strong at the top, it seems

MWC:
@Fresno St 66, San Diego St 62
@Nevada 100, Colorado St 60

WCC:
Gonzaga 98, @Santa Clara 39 - lol
@San Francisco 83, Portland 61

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Washington 61, @Oregon 56 - well we're going to have 1 lock in UW before too long
@USC 80, Arizona 57 - and so much for Arizona being on that same level
@Oregon St 90, Washington St 77
Arizona St 84, @UCLA 73

elsewhere:
- Vermont absorbs a loss to UMBC, Stony Brook now leads alone at 5-0.  Don't see an at-large coming despite a shiny W-L record though
- another clean week for Liberty and Lipscomb; they play twice yet and if one sweeps, we're going to have to discuss at-large
- Hofstra is now 3 games clear in the Colonial.  Sheesh, what happened to that conference
- CUSA is a mess.  Everyone already has at least two losses, and between ODU, Marshall, UAB, and North Texas, this conference has 4 teams just outside the NIT bubble
- Bowling Green is the last undefeated team in the MAC.  okay
- Belmont beats Murray St on the road.  Tough to make the case for Murray without seriously running the table, because the OVC isn't very good behind them
- SoCon.  Wofford 8-0, UNCG 7-1, ETSU 6-2, Furman 5-3.  Those 4 need to continue separating from the rest of the league

BRACKET 1/21

A first pass at geography this year.  It's still a bit early, so don't read too much into it, but it's a good first glance.

I had to move Nevada out of the West regional for balance.  Something to watch if Gonzaga or Nevada end up at the end of a seed line (i.e., last 2 seed, last 3 seed).  If that happens, the NCAA committee will be really boxed in.  It's actually better for those two teams to be the first team on the 3 line than the last team on the 2 line, IMO.  Because the weakest 1 seed will almost certainly be sent west.

Also, Tennessee is close to both Columbia and Columbus....Duke and UVa going for Columbia....Michigan/Michigan St want Columbus.  Not everyone will get what they want.  A chase within the chase to watch.

SOUTH 32
@Columbia
1) Tennessee vs. 16) Rider/Prairie View A&M
8) Indiana vs. 9) Syracuse
@Jacksonville
4) Virginia Tech vs. 13) Liberty
5) Purdue vs. 12) St Louis
@San Jose
3) Nevada vs. 14) Radford
6) Oklahoma vs. 11) Arizona
@Des Moines
2) Michigan vs. 15) UC Santa Barbara
7) Florida St vs. 10) Seton Hall

WEST 35
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Iowa vs. 9) TCU
@San Jose
4) Villanova vs. 13) Loyola(Chi)
5) Auburn vs. 12) Minnesota/Arizona St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Texas St
6) Louisville vs. 11) Murray St
@Salt Lake City
2) Gonzaga vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Ole Miss vs. 10) Washington

MIDWEST 35
@Columbus
1) Michigan St vs. 16) Weber St
8) North Carolina St vs. 9) Kansas St
@Salt Lake City
4) Houston vs. 13) Grand Canyon
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Hofstra
@Jacksonville
3) North Carolina vs. 14) Northern Kentucky
6) Wisconsin vs. 11) Texas
@Tulsa
2) Kansas vs. 15) Princeton
7) Nebraska vs. 10) Central Florida

EAST 34
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Robert Morris/Norfolk St
8) Mississippi St vs. 9) Ohio St
@Hartford
4) Maryland vs. 13) Vermont
5) Buffalo vs. 12) VCU/Butler
@Hartford
3) Marquette vs. 14) Marshall
6) LSU vs. 11) Wofford
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Bucknell
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) St John's

S-CURVE 1/21

The 1 line:  Tennessee, Duke, Michigan St, Virginia
The 2 line:  Michigan, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky
The 3 line:  Texas Tech, North Carolina, Marquette, Nevada
The 4 line:  Maryland, Virginia Tech, Houston, Villanova
The 5 line:  Buffalo, Purdue, Iowa St, Auburn
The 6 line:  Oklahoma, Louisville, Wisconsin, LSU
The 7 line:  Nebraska, Cincinnati, Florida St, Ole Miss
The 8 line:  Iowa, Mississippi St, North Carolina St, Indiana
The 9 line:  TCU, Syracuse, Kansas St, Ohio St
The 10 line:  St John's, Central Florida, Washington, Seton Hall
The 11 line:  Wofford, Arizona, Murray St, Texas
The 12 line:  VCU, Butler, Minnesota, St Louis, Arizona St, Hofstra
The 13 line:  Liberty, Vermont, Loyola(Chi), Grand Canyon
The 14 line:  Texas St, Marshall, Northern Kentucky, Radford
The 15 line:  South Dakota St, UC Santa Barbara, Princeton, Bucknell
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, Weber St, Rider, Robert Morris, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Washington
Seton Hall
Arizona
Texas

Last 4 in:
VCU
Butler
Minnesota
Arizona St

Last 4 out:
Florida
Temple
UNC Greensboro
San Francisco

Next 4 out:
Lipscomb
North Texas
Utah St
Pittsburgh

Break it down!:
B1G 10
ACC 8
Big 12 7
SEC 6
Big East 5
Pac-12 3
AAC 3
A-10 2

1/18 - 1/20 recap

ACC:
@Duke 72, Virginia 70 - it's hard to see many permutations where both teams don't end up on the 1 line right now
@Virginia Tech 87, Wake 71
UNC 85, @Miami 76
NC State 77, @Notre Dame 73
@Syracuse 74, Pitt 63
Louisville 79, @GT 51
@BC 87, FSU 82 - um, don't get too much deeper in the conference standings, FSU

B1G:
Maryland 75, @Ohio St 61
Northwestern 65, @Rutgers 57
@Wisconsin 64, Michigan 54 - still a fair amount of wiggle room before UM loses a 1 seed in my book
@Purdue 70, Indiana 55
@Minnesota 65, Penn St 64
@Iowa 95, Illinois 71

BEast:
@Villanova 85, Xavier 75
@Butler 80, St John's 71
DePaul 97, @Seton Hall 93 - all these results aren't great for the BE bubble teams.  This is how you end up with the minimum number of at-large bids possible by March
@Marquette 79, Provi 68

Big 12:
@West Virginia 65, Kansas 64 - we're used to seeing Kansas with a sterling resume despite a few losses....this year might be the year they don't get to the top line with a 6 or 7 loss year
@Baylor 73, Texas Tech 62 - not the greatest weekend for the Big 12's hopes for the 1 line
@Texas 75, Oklahoma 72 - UT looks like our nominal Big 12 bubble team this year
@Kansas St 65, TCU 55
@Iowa St 72, Oklahoma St 59

SEC:
@Tennessee 71, Alabama 68
Kentucky 82, @Auburn 80
@Ole Miss 84, Arkansas 67
Mississippi St 71, @Vandy 55
Florida 62, @Georgia 52
Missouri 66, @Texas A&M 43
@LSU 89, South Carolina 67 - finally USC loses a league game.  For the most part, we're seeing better road teams beating bad home teams in this conference so far.  Will be a pretty empty bubble for the conference if this holds

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Stanford 78, @Wazzu 66
@USC 80, UCLA 67
@Washington 71, Cal 52
@Arizona 82, Oregon St 71
@Arizona St 78, Oregon 64 - Pac-12 keeps its nose clean this weekend at least
@Utah 78, Colorado 69

AAC:
Houston 69, @USF 60 - road wins are never trivial
@UCF 64, Tulsa 62
Cincinnati 66, @Wichita St 55

A-10:
@St Louis 68, St Joe's 57
@Davidson 75, Richmond 62
@VCU 68, UMass 50
Dayton 89, @St Bonaventure 86 (2OT) - service holds for all our A-10 contenders

WCC:
Gonzaga 89, @Portland 66
@St Mary's 76, San Diego 59 - SMU sneaking up towards 2nd best in the league, but they don't have an at-large profile this year
@San Fran 82, BYU 63

SoCon:
UNC Greensboro 75, @ETSU 68
@Wofford 59, Furman 54 - FU is 4-3 in the league after being ranked....yikes.  Wofford and UNCG seem like the two best teams, and they might separate

others:
@Buffalo 77, Eastern Michigan 65
@Nevada 67, Air Force 52
Fresno St 63, @Boise St 53
Penn 77, @Temple 70 - what the hell, Penn.  What the hell are you doing this season

Look around the leagues:
Vermont and Stony Brook win....both 2 games clear in the loss column in the A-East
Weber St has poked its head out front by 1 game in the Big Sky
Radford the last undefeated in the Big South
UCSB the last undefeated in the Big West
Hofstra now clear by 2 games in the Colonial
Marshall is the last undefeated in CUSA.  North Texas trapped 0.5 GB for now
Rider is 2 clear in the loss column in the MAAC, but the entire conference is garbage this year
Bowling Green, somehow, is the other undefeated team in the MAC
Robert Morris clear by 1 game in the NEC
Murray St and...Jacksonville St?  are your two 6-0 teams in the OVC.  Belmont 2 back
Bucknell beats Lehigh to take early control of the Patriot
Sam Houston St the last undefeated in the Southland
South Dakota St and Omaha co-lead the Summit
Texas St and Georgia St co-lead the Fun Belt
The WAC race might be sneaky-good.  Tie in the loss column between NMSU, Grand Canyon, CSUB.  I have no idea who's actually good among these teams

1/14 - 1/17 recap

We're moving to bi-weekly, at least for January.  Deal with it


ACC:
Syracuse 95, @Duke 91 - what I'm curious of is how NET deals with player absences.  Even still, this should stand as a signature win to put them comfortably in the field right now
@Pittsburgh 75, Florida St 62 - I thought Pitt was terrible, so I'm not sure whether this one is them being better than I thought or just a bad FSU game
@Virginia 81, Virginia Tech 59
@North Carolina 75, Notre Dame 69
@Wake Forest 71, NC State 67 - here's another dicey road loss by a probable at-large team.  It's tough to get a top 4 seed with these things on your resume
@Louisville 80, BC 70
@Clemson 72, GT 60

B1G:
@Maryland 64, Wisconsin 60
Nebraska 66, @Indiana 51 - quality road wins get you a gold star
@Purdue 89, Rutgers 54
Iowa 89, @Penn St 82
@Illinois 95, Minnesota 68 - dumb loss of the week
Michigan St 70, @Nebraska 64 - still a good week for Nebraska overall

SEC:
@Tennessee 106, Arkansas 87
Kentucky 69, @Georgia 49
LSU 83, @Ole Miss 69
@Mississippi St 71, Florida 68
Auburn 85, @Texas A&M
South Carolina 74, @Vandy 71
Alabama 70, @Mizzou 60 - is it just me, or is the SEC sorting itself into haves and have nots quickly?  Feeling better about Bama and LSU and the Mississippis, Arky falling off the board...seems like they're setting up for a solid 7 bids this year

BEast:
Marquette 74, @Georgetown 71
@Providence 72, Seton Hall 63
@St John's 81, Creighton 66 - CU about to be the one BE bubble team taken off the board
Butler 87, @DePaul 69

Big 12:
@Kansas 80, Texas 78
Baylor 73, @Oklahoma St 69
@TCU 98, West Virginia 67
Iowa St 68, @Texas Tech 64
Kansas St 74, @Oklahoma 61 - feels like the Big 12 is slowly separating into 6 haves, 3 have-nots, and 1 bubble team.  Which sounds about right for the conference, given its non-con profile

MWC:
Nevada 72, @Boise St 71

AAC:
@Cincinnati 82, USF 74
Houston 69, @SMU 58
@Tulsa 89, UConn 83 - all in all, both teams are probably going to be short of the tournament
Temple 85, @ECU 74
@Wichita St 75, UCF 67 - not a dicey loss by any means....but the AAC 2.5 bids is a fun over/under bet to place right now.  Don't know which way I'd go

A-10:
St Louis 63, @Fordham 60
@St Joe's 61, Davidson 60 - first misstep in the A-10 for Davidson
@VCU 76, Dayton 71

WCC:
@Gonzaga 73, Loyola Marymount 55
San Fran 53, @Pacific 52

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Oregon 59, @Arizona 54 - sigh
@Washington 80, Stanford 64
@Arizona St 70, Oregon St 67

micellaneous:
Buffalo 88, @Western Michigan 79
Lipscomb 70, @NJIT 52 - LU has a shiny NET rating.  We might have to discuss their at-large chances if they run the A-Sun table.  It's do-able
@Jacksonville St 91, Belmont 80 (OT) - the OVC is clearly Murray St's now

S-CURVE 1/14

I would say this isn't quite vetted to my usual level of precision, but I feel good about these as big-picture projections.  Remember, we're still in mid-January, so I still bake in some conference bias into the projections.  Some specific thoughts:

1) The Pac-12 is in real, real trouble.  Their computer numbers are even more terrible than I thought.  I'm giving them 2 back-end spots thinking they'll eventually get there, but man.  It's going to be a chore just to get a 2nd team in.
2) I'm going there with the SoCon for now.  There should be enough quality win chances between the top 4 to create an at-large environment for someone.
3) Big 10 is going to put 10 teams in, and you're all going to have to deal with it.
4) This feels like the low end for projections for the ACC, with 8 teams in.


Reminder:  I take conference leaders (ties broken by NET).  This means there's a few messed up situations:
- Sorry, North Texas.  UTSA's got you for now
- Boise leads the Mountain West.  Nevada is in as an at-large team this time around
- Detroit Mercy over NKU feels violently wrong, as does Valpo over Loyola and UMKC over NMSU.  Horizon, WAC, and MVC lose multiple seed lines as a result.



The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee
The 2 line:  Gonzaga, Michigan St, Texas Tech, Kansas
The 3 line:  Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Nevada, Kentucky
The 4 line:  North Carolina, Houston, Indiana, Marquette
The 5 line:  Maryland, Villanova, Florida St, Buffalo
The 6 line:  Auburn, North Carolina St, Iowa, Ole Miss
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Louisville
The 8 line:  TCU, Iowa St, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
The 9 line:  Ohio St, LSU, Syracuse, Minnesota,
The 10 line:  Purdue, St John's, Central Florida, St Louis
The 11 line:  Kansas St, Arizona, Furman, Davidson, Arizona St, Washington
The 12 line:  Wofford, Murray St, Liberty, Hofstra
The 13 line:  UC-Irvine, South Dakota St, Vermont, Boise St
The 14 line:  Georgia St, Valparaiso, Princeton, Texas-San Antonio
The 15 line:  Weber St, Radford, Lehigh, Rider
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, Wagner, Detroit Mercy, UMKC, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Purdue
St John's
Central Florida
Kansas St

Last 4 in:
Furman
Davidson
Arizona St
Washington

Last 4 out:
Butler
VCU
Clemson
Alabama

Next 4 out:
North Texas
Creighton
San Francisco
Fresno St



Break it down!:
B1G 10
ACC 8
Big 12 6
SEC 6
Big East 4
Pac-12 3
AAC 3
A-10 2
MWC 2
SoCon 2

1/13 recap

@Michigan 80, Northwestern 60
Michigan St 71, @Penn St 56

@Xavier 70, Butler 69
Villanova 90, @Creighton 78 - developing storyline:  all these Big East bubble teams are starting to absorb too many losses

@South Carolina 85, Missouri 75
@UCF 76, East Carolina 65
@Oregon 81, USC 60
@Oregon St 79, UCLA 66