You know what I haven't done this entire year yet? Bubble Watch! Let's bang out a set over the next few days.
Big East
Lockbox:
Villanova (22-1) (9-1) RPI 2 SoS 24
Vital signs:
13-1 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 53
avg RPI win 110
9-1 vs. Group 1
3-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-Tennessee, N-Gonzaga, Xavier
Bad losses: none
Not a whole lot to discuss with Nova. Only potential flaw? It's possible Virginia could stack up more signature wins than them to poach the #1 overall seed. But the schedule is littered with Group 1 and Group 2 chances down the stretch, and Nova just isn't going to lose much, period.
Xavier (21-3) (9-2) RPI 3 SoS 19
Vital signs:
6-3 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 38
avg RPI win 113
5-3 vs. Group 1
5-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Cincy, @Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler
Bad losses: N-Arizona St is not aging well
It's going to be pretty tough for X to build a case for a 1 seed...doable but not impossible. All the numbers scream great but not #1 great. They got a @Butler/@Creighton/SHU/Nova stretch coming. Have fun with that one.
Should be in:
Seton Hall (17-6) (6-4) RPI 17 SoS 21
Vital signs:
5-5 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 61
avg RPI win 129
5-5 vs. Group 1
0-0 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: N-TTU, @Louisville, @Butler
Bad losses: @Rutgers
It's safe to say 5 Group 1 wins with this resume means a solid position. It's really just a matter of seeding for this team. I don't have much to say here; this is the resume of your garden variety 5 seed right here.
Butler (17-7) (7-4) RPI 25 SoS 32
Vital signs:
5-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 81
avg RPI win 150
3-7 vs. Group 1
2-0 vs. Group 0
Signature wins: N-Ohio St, Nova
Bad losses: @Maryland might be the worst
When all your losses are within Group 1, and you've got a couple signature wins in that group, you'll be fine. Seeding will be an issue - getting clipped by Seton Hall at home or Provi on the road limits your seed upside. You can see this problem represented by the average RPI win of 150 - that's low.
Creighton (17-6) (7-4) RPI 23 SoS 54
Vital signs:
4-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 258
avg RPI win 155
3-5 vs. Group 1
4-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Butler, Seton Hall
Bad losses: N-Baylor?
A couple red flags, which are related Avg RPI win is not good. Non-con SoS is dicey...it's submarined by a few bad cupcakes. They scheduled Northwestern, Gonzaga, UCLA, Baylor...just about all of them have failed CU. Still, the committee does not judge intent, just results, and Creighton will pay the price for their non-con schedule. It's going to be difficult for them to miss the tourney because so many of their losses are reasonable (road losses at BE teams). However, they have X and Nova both coming at home. Lose both and you're fine, but you then have to hold serve in your other games just in case.
Bubble:
Providence (15-8) (6-4) RPI 27 SoS 15
Vital signs:
5-6 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 55
avg RPI win 127
5-5 vs. Group 1
2-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Xavier, Butler, Creighton
Bad losses: @UMass, Minny
In reasonably good shape. Do own a road win at Marquette, which helps mask, just a little bit, that all their best wins are at home. They are really hurt by the new RPI Group rules, as they have home wins over 77, 79, and 68 in the non-con. Still, without a glaring flaw, they'll be fine if they avoid the bad loss trap (there's a few coming though).
Marquette (13-10) (4-7) RPI 60 SoS 9
Vital signs:
4-4 road/neutral record
non-con SoS 118
avg RPI win
2-9 vs. Group 1
2-1 vs. Group 2
Signature wins: Seton Hall, @Providence
Bad losses: Georgia at home is the worst
Good SoS numbers, which will help. But if you have enough opportunities, you have to eventually cash them in. And I fear they may have exhausted their chances. They're both with Nova, Butler, and X for the year, but they do have Creighton 2x coming. They kinda need a higher-end win than what they have right now. One other modest flaw: only played 1 road game in the non-con (@Wisky). Have roadies with all 3 basement teams in the conference coming still. Will need to hold serve to boost those numbers just a bit.
The other 3 teams have lost the plot:
St John's non-con resume: 10-2, RPI 17, SoS 5. With a signature win over Duke. The hell?
Georgetown's non-con SoS has actually taken a turn for the better, all the way up from 351 to 348. And one of their 10 wins in the non-con moved up to a Group 3 win!
DePaul is DePaul.
Monday, February 5, 2018
Sunday, February 4, 2018
2/4 recap
@Villanova 92, Seton Hall 76
@Ohio St 75, Illinois 67
Arizona St 88, @Washington St 78
@Maryland 68, Wisconsin 63
Temple 83, @Tulane 76
@Ohio St 75, Illinois 67
Arizona St 88, @Washington St 78
@Maryland 68, Wisconsin 63
Temple 83, @Tulane 76
2/3 recap
abbreviated version today.
St Bonaventure 84, @Duquesne 81
Virginia 59, @Syracuse 44
@St John's 81, Duke 77 - the hell is this?
@North Carolina 96, Pitt 65
Clemson 75, @Wake Forest 67
@NC State 76, Notre Dame 58
Miami 84, @Virginia Tech 75 - quality win chances can't go by the boards like this for VT too much more often
Florida St 80, @Loiusville 76 - UL's resume is a bit more dicey than their current seed would suggest. Pretty important Group 1 win for FSU to stabilize the profile
Cincinnati 65, @UConn 57
Houston 69, @UCF 65 - there's an important road win for the profile
Oklahoma St 84, @Kansas 79 - well well well. A dormant at-large profile gains new life
Texas Tech 83, @TCU 81 - okay, Tech is starting to stack road wins and is quickly making up for its profile problems
@Texas 79, Oklahoma 74 - important home hold for a bubble team
@West Virginia 89, Kansas St 51
@Baylor 81, Iowa St 67 - NIT bubble game!
@Xavier 96, Georgetown 91 (OT) - good lord
@Butler 80, DePaul 57
Providence 77, @Marquette 75 - a bubble-on-bubble game....the road team winning is very significant in these games
Purdue 78, @Rutgers 76
Michigan St 63, @Indiana 60
@Michigan 76, Minnesota 73 (OT)
@Penn St 82, Iowa 58 - man, the Big 10 is boring this year
@UT San Antonio 74, Western Kentucky 63 - dammit WKU, that's the one
Middle Tennessee 78, @Charlotte 73
@Boise St 93, UNLV 91 (OT)
Nevada 76, @Colorado St 67
@Washington 78, Arizona 75 - okay, we're taking UW seriously now
@Stanford 96, Oregon 61
@UCLA 82, USC 79
@Auburn 93, Vanderbilt 81
@Tennessee 94, Ole Miss 61
@Missouri 69, Kentucky 60
Alabama 68, @Florida 50 - there's a curious road win right there
@Texas A&M 83, South Carolina 60
@LSU 94, Arkansas 86
@Mississippi St 72, Georgia 57
St Mary's 65, @San Diego 62
@Gonzaga 68, BYU 60
St Bonaventure 84, @Duquesne 81
Virginia 59, @Syracuse 44
@St John's 81, Duke 77 - the hell is this?
@North Carolina 96, Pitt 65
Clemson 75, @Wake Forest 67
@NC State 76, Notre Dame 58
Miami 84, @Virginia Tech 75 - quality win chances can't go by the boards like this for VT too much more often
Florida St 80, @Loiusville 76 - UL's resume is a bit more dicey than their current seed would suggest. Pretty important Group 1 win for FSU to stabilize the profile
Cincinnati 65, @UConn 57
Houston 69, @UCF 65 - there's an important road win for the profile
Oklahoma St 84, @Kansas 79 - well well well. A dormant at-large profile gains new life
Texas Tech 83, @TCU 81 - okay, Tech is starting to stack road wins and is quickly making up for its profile problems
@Texas 79, Oklahoma 74 - important home hold for a bubble team
@West Virginia 89, Kansas St 51
@Baylor 81, Iowa St 67 - NIT bubble game!
@Xavier 96, Georgetown 91 (OT) - good lord
@Butler 80, DePaul 57
Providence 77, @Marquette 75 - a bubble-on-bubble game....the road team winning is very significant in these games
Purdue 78, @Rutgers 76
Michigan St 63, @Indiana 60
@Michigan 76, Minnesota 73 (OT)
@Penn St 82, Iowa 58 - man, the Big 10 is boring this year
@UT San Antonio 74, Western Kentucky 63 - dammit WKU, that's the one
Middle Tennessee 78, @Charlotte 73
@Boise St 93, UNLV 91 (OT)
Nevada 76, @Colorado St 67
@Washington 78, Arizona 75 - okay, we're taking UW seriously now
@Stanford 96, Oregon 61
@UCLA 82, USC 79
@Auburn 93, Vanderbilt 81
@Tennessee 94, Ole Miss 61
@Missouri 69, Kentucky 60
Alabama 68, @Florida 50 - there's a curious road win right there
@Texas A&M 83, South Carolina 60
@LSU 94, Arkansas 86
@Mississippi St 72, Georgia 57
St Mary's 65, @San Diego 62
@Gonzaga 68, BYU 60
Friday, February 2, 2018
2/3 S-CURVE
Pressure point 1: #1 overall. Virginia has surpassed Villanova. It doesn't really matter long-term, but still.
Pressure point 2: #4 overall, 1 line. I'm going to say the Big 12 champ will leap an ACC non-champ, most other things being equal. Kansas has better resume depth at the moment over Duke.
Pressure point 3: #7 overall, 2 line. Clemson/Auburn/Oklahoma range. There's some different angles the committee can tackle this from. I'm going to lean towards Auburn's road record and OU's win over Kansas as differentiating them from Clemson for the time being.
Pressure point 4: #10 overall, 3 line. I do think the committee does like to reward dominant teams in relevant conferences, and I think Cincy and Zona both get a resume bump as a reward.
Pressure point 5: #14 overall, 4 line. Things get weird behind Tennessee. Flaws start to become noticeable. I can be talked in or out of the order of the next few teams here. One sneaky fact: TTU's non-con SoS is rallying a bit. So is WVU's. So let's be a little gentler on their seed for the time being.
Pressure point 6: #25 overall, 7 line. This is where we start to see the bubble slowly creep in. A few teams mostly safe but with plausible paths to miss the NCAA tourney. URI and Nevada escape this group and move up to the 6 line. This is where non-con SoS starts to matter ('sup, Creighton). Gonzaga is in a weird spot where their conference is shredding up their SoS numbers. They should be fine, I think.
Pressure point 7: #30 overall, 8 line. Every single legitimate business at-large contender can at least flop down 1 Group 1 on the table for their at-large resume. Except Wichita and Boise. This situation should resolve itself in due time for Wichita, but still.
Pressure point 8: #37 overall, 10 line. This is where the true bubble starts. Teams with legitimate flaws. You can argue for almost any order of teams you want to here.
Pressure point 9: #40 overall, 10 line. NC State's non-con SoS? Yikes. But I can't ignore the signature wins either. Sigh.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Kansas
The 2 line: Duke, Xavier, Auburn, Oklahoma
The 3 line: Clemson, Arizona, Cincinnati, North Carolina
The 4 line: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Kentucky, West Virginia
The 5 line: Michigan St, Ohio St, Seton Hall, Florida
The 6 line: Rhode Island, Miami, TCU, Nevada
The 7 line: St Mary's, Gonzaga, Butler, Louisville
The 8 line: Creighton, Wichita St, Arizona St, Arkansas
The 9 line: Michigan, Texas, Florida St, Alabama
The 10 line: Texas A&M, Providence, USC, North Carolina St
The 11 line: Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Western Kentucky, Houston, Washington
The 12 line: Boise St, Syracuse, Loyola(Chi), New Mexico St, Buffalo
The 13 line: William & Mary, Vermont, South Dakota St, East Tennessee St
The 14 line: Louisiana, UC Santa Barbara, Rider, Belmont
The 15 line: Montana, Wagner, Wright St, Bucknell
The 16 line: Penn, Radford, FGCU, New Orleans, Savannah St, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Next 4 in:
USC
North Carolina St
Middle Tennessee***
Missouri
Western Kentucky
Last 4 in:
Houston
Washington
Boise St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
Marquette
Virginia Tech
Kansas St
SMU
Next 4 out:
Maryland
Notre Dame
Georgia
UCLA
Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 8
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 4
Pac-12 4
AAC 3
MWC 2
CUSA 2
WCC 2
Preliminary NIT projections:
The 3 line: St Bonaventure, Temple, South Carolina, BYU
The 4 line: Nebraska, Utah, Central Florida, Mississippi St
The 5 line: Wyoming, Oregon, LSU, Oklahoma St
The 6 line: Memphis, Toledo
---the NIT bubble traditionally falls around this spot (middle of 6 line)
Power programs with bursting bubbles: Colorado, Boston College, Iowa St, Stanford, Indiana, Northwestern, Penn St
Your way-too-early CBI projections:
Charleston vs. Old Dominion
Northeastern vs. VCU
Furman vs. Georgia St
Bradley vs. Ball St
Murray St vs. Southern Illinois
Northern Kentucky vs. Missouri St
Fresno St vs. UC Davis
South Dakota vs. Utah Valley
Other teams in clear range of the CBI/CIT: Illinois St, Davidson, Hofstra, Towson, San Diego, Grand Canyon, UAB, Marshall, UNC Greensboro, Wofford, Canisius, Iona, Georgia Southern, UNC Asheville, Oakland, Lipscomb, Stephen F Austin
Pressure point 2: #4 overall, 1 line. I'm going to say the Big 12 champ will leap an ACC non-champ, most other things being equal. Kansas has better resume depth at the moment over Duke.
Pressure point 3: #7 overall, 2 line. Clemson/Auburn/Oklahoma range. There's some different angles the committee can tackle this from. I'm going to lean towards Auburn's road record and OU's win over Kansas as differentiating them from Clemson for the time being.
Pressure point 4: #10 overall, 3 line. I do think the committee does like to reward dominant teams in relevant conferences, and I think Cincy and Zona both get a resume bump as a reward.
Pressure point 5: #14 overall, 4 line. Things get weird behind Tennessee. Flaws start to become noticeable. I can be talked in or out of the order of the next few teams here. One sneaky fact: TTU's non-con SoS is rallying a bit. So is WVU's. So let's be a little gentler on their seed for the time being.
Pressure point 6: #25 overall, 7 line. This is where we start to see the bubble slowly creep in. A few teams mostly safe but with plausible paths to miss the NCAA tourney. URI and Nevada escape this group and move up to the 6 line. This is where non-con SoS starts to matter ('sup, Creighton). Gonzaga is in a weird spot where their conference is shredding up their SoS numbers. They should be fine, I think.
Pressure point 7: #30 overall, 8 line. Every single legitimate business at-large contender can at least flop down 1 Group 1 on the table for their at-large resume. Except Wichita and Boise. This situation should resolve itself in due time for Wichita, but still.
Pressure point 8: #37 overall, 10 line. This is where the true bubble starts. Teams with legitimate flaws. You can argue for almost any order of teams you want to here.
Pressure point 9: #40 overall, 10 line. NC State's non-con SoS? Yikes. But I can't ignore the signature wins either. Sigh.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Kansas
The 2 line: Duke, Xavier, Auburn, Oklahoma
The 3 line: Clemson, Arizona, Cincinnati, North Carolina
The 4 line: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Kentucky, West Virginia
The 5 line: Michigan St, Ohio St, Seton Hall, Florida
The 6 line: Rhode Island, Miami, TCU, Nevada
The 7 line: St Mary's, Gonzaga, Butler, Louisville
The 8 line: Creighton, Wichita St, Arizona St, Arkansas
The 9 line: Michigan, Texas, Florida St, Alabama
The 10 line: Texas A&M, Providence, USC, North Carolina St
The 11 line: Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Western Kentucky, Houston, Washington
The 12 line: Boise St, Syracuse, Loyola(Chi), New Mexico St, Buffalo
The 13 line: William & Mary, Vermont, South Dakota St, East Tennessee St
The 14 line: Louisiana, UC Santa Barbara, Rider, Belmont
The 15 line: Montana, Wagner, Wright St, Bucknell
The 16 line: Penn, Radford, FGCU, New Orleans, Savannah St, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Next 4 in:
USC
North Carolina St
Middle Tennessee***
Missouri
Western Kentucky
Last 4 in:
Houston
Washington
Boise St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
Marquette
Virginia Tech
Kansas St
SMU
Next 4 out:
Maryland
Notre Dame
Georgia
UCLA
Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 8
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 4
Pac-12 4
AAC 3
MWC 2
CUSA 2
WCC 2
Preliminary NIT projections:
The 3 line: St Bonaventure, Temple, South Carolina, BYU
The 4 line: Nebraska, Utah, Central Florida, Mississippi St
The 5 line: Wyoming, Oregon, LSU, Oklahoma St
The 6 line: Memphis, Toledo
---the NIT bubble traditionally falls around this spot (middle of 6 line)
Power programs with bursting bubbles: Colorado, Boston College, Iowa St, Stanford, Indiana, Northwestern, Penn St
Your way-too-early CBI projections:
Charleston vs. Old Dominion
Northeastern vs. VCU
Furman vs. Georgia St
Bradley vs. Ball St
Murray St vs. Southern Illinois
Northern Kentucky vs. Missouri St
Fresno St vs. UC Davis
South Dakota vs. Utah Valley
Other teams in clear range of the CBI/CIT: Illinois St, Davidson, Hofstra, Towson, San Diego, Grand Canyon, UAB, Marshall, UNC Greensboro, Wofford, Canisius, Iona, Georgia Southern, UNC Asheville, Oakland, Lipscomb, Stephen F Austin
2/2 recap
Rhode Island 81, @VCU 68 - 7 to go
@Colorado 67, Utah 55 - the Pac-12 has failed itself this year
everything else from the past 2 days is a hodge-podge of mid-majors....I'd rather go focus on the next S-Curve.
@Colorado 67, Utah 55 - the Pac-12 has failed itself this year
everything else from the past 2 days is a hodge-podge of mid-majors....I'd rather go focus on the next S-Curve.
2/1 recap
@Villanova 98, Creighton 78
@Temple 81, Wichita St 79 (OT) - it may be time to start yanking away multiple seeding lines from this team
@Tulsa 76, SMU 67 - things are starting to break very badly for the AAC behind Cincy
@Washington 68, Arizona St 64 - Washington has a pulse on the bubble after all!
Oregon 66, @Cal 53
@Stanford 80, Oregon St 71
@St Mary's 79, San Francisco 43
@Gonzaga 69, San Diego 59
@Loyola Marymount 76, BYU 69
Middle Tennessee 66, @Old Dominion 59
Western Kentucky 72, @UTEP 60
Northwestern 60, @Wisconsin 52
@Temple 81, Wichita St 79 (OT) - it may be time to start yanking away multiple seeding lines from this team
@Tulsa 76, SMU 67 - things are starting to break very badly for the AAC behind Cincy
@Washington 68, Arizona St 64 - Washington has a pulse on the bubble after all!
Oregon 66, @Cal 53
@Stanford 80, Oregon St 71
@St Mary's 79, San Francisco 43
@Gonzaga 69, San Diego 59
@Loyola Marymount 76, BYU 69
Middle Tennessee 66, @Old Dominion 59
Western Kentucky 72, @UTEP 60
Northwestern 60, @Wisconsin 52
1/31 recap
@Virginia 74, Louisville 64 - UVa/Nova is starting to turn into an interesting conversation for #1 overall
@Miami 69, Pittsburgh 57
@Wake Forest 76, Florida St 72 - the type of game that bubble teams drop. Again, given the depth of the league, this is not where you want to spend one of your league losses
@Georgia Tech 55, Syracuse 51 - ditto
Virginia Tech 85, @Boston College 80 (OT) - meanwhile, here's a bubble team holding their ground in a road game
@Seton Hall 73, Providence 57
Butler 92, @Marquette 72
@Texas Tech 73, Texas 71 (OT) - nearly a very dangerous loss for Tech's resume; as is it's status quo for both teams going forward
@Iowa St 93, West Virginia 77 - meanwhile, this is NOT a profile that can afford body blows like this. Could be worth multiple seeding lines
@Tennessee 84, LSU 61
Mississippi St 81, @South Carolina 76 - what a dumb loss for a fringe bubble team
Missouri 69, @Alabama 60 - when you have bubble vs. bubble, the road team winning is a big deal. Big boon to Mizzou, big ding to Bama
@Purdue 75, Maryland 67
@Michigan St 76, Penn St 68
Arizona 100, Washington St 72
@Cincinnati 80, Houston 70
@UCF 70, UConn 61
St Bonaventure 85, @George Mason 69 - this only gets Bona back to 5-4 within the A-10. They're going to need to find a way around everyone back into 2nd by the end of the year
@Bradley 69, Loyola(Chi) 67 - probably endgame for the at-large hopes of the conference. It's not a bad loss but LUC is in dire need of more signature wins
Wyoming 91, @Colorado St 86 (2OT) - starting to creep into the NIT bubble picture
@Nevada 102, Fresno St 92
@Miami 69, Pittsburgh 57
@Wake Forest 76, Florida St 72 - the type of game that bubble teams drop. Again, given the depth of the league, this is not where you want to spend one of your league losses
@Georgia Tech 55, Syracuse 51 - ditto
Virginia Tech 85, @Boston College 80 (OT) - meanwhile, here's a bubble team holding their ground in a road game
@Seton Hall 73, Providence 57
Butler 92, @Marquette 72
@Texas Tech 73, Texas 71 (OT) - nearly a very dangerous loss for Tech's resume; as is it's status quo for both teams going forward
@Iowa St 93, West Virginia 77 - meanwhile, this is NOT a profile that can afford body blows like this. Could be worth multiple seeding lines
@Tennessee 84, LSU 61
Mississippi St 81, @South Carolina 76 - what a dumb loss for a fringe bubble team
Missouri 69, @Alabama 60 - when you have bubble vs. bubble, the road team winning is a big deal. Big boon to Mizzou, big ding to Bama
@Purdue 75, Maryland 67
@Michigan St 76, Penn St 68
Arizona 100, Washington St 72
@Cincinnati 80, Houston 70
@UCF 70, UConn 61
St Bonaventure 85, @George Mason 69 - this only gets Bona back to 5-4 within the A-10. They're going to need to find a way around everyone back into 2nd by the end of the year
@Bradley 69, Loyola(Chi) 67 - probably endgame for the at-large hopes of the conference. It's not a bad loss but LUC is in dire need of more signature wins
Wyoming 91, @Colorado St 86 (2OT) - starting to creep into the NIT bubble picture
@Nevada 102, Fresno St 92
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