1/5 recap

@Rutgers 64, Wisconsin 60 - just in case anyone thought Wisky was still viable
@Penn St 78, Northwestern 63
@Oregon St 76, Oregon 64 - this isn't helping, Pac-12

CAAWatch: Charleston loses at Drexel, Bill & Mary wins at Delaware....W&M is the last undefeated already in conference play with Elon also losing.  Looks like another year where the conference is solid top-to-bottom but no one will separate and be a player on the bubble

HorizonWatch:  One of everyone's favorite middies, Oakland, lost at home to NKU.  Time to jump ship on this conference as a whole, they've been bad this year

1/6 BRACKET

For entainment purposes only.

Once again, the pressure point is the northwest regional.  A couple 4 seeds are probably getting shipped to Boise.  Also a pressure point in the ACC.  Gotta get to a top 2 position - the 3rd and 4th teams in those conferences risk getting shipped out in the west or midwest regional.

Conference blocking will be more prevalent than usual.  With 4 Big 12 teams and 4 ACC teams in the top 16, many block the path of others.  West Virginia is quite lucky their geography makes them a natural fit for the east and keep them from blocking TCU from the midwest in this example bracket.

SOUTH 33
@Charlotte
1) Duke vs. 16) New Orleans/Texas Southern
8) Auburn vs. 9) Minnesota
@Boise
4) Seton Hall vs. 13) South Dakota
5) Cincinnati vs. 12) Middle Tennessee
@Nashville
3) Kentucky vs. 14) East Tennessee St
6) Miami vs. 11) Ohio St/SMU
@Pittsburgh
2) West Virginia vs. 15) Princeton
7) Creighton vs. 10) Syracuse

WEST 35
@Wichita
1) Oklahoma vs. 16) Robert Morris
8) Florida vs. 9) Louisville
@Boise
4) Florida St vs. 13) Belmont
5) Texas Tech vs. 12) William & Mary
@Nashville
3) Purdue vs. 14) Vermont
6) Clemson vs. 11) Boise St/Utah
@San Diego
2) Arizona St vs. 15) Montana St
7) Gonzaga vs. 10) Maryland

EAST 36
@Pittsburgh
1) Villanova vs. 16) Bucknell/Morgan St
8) Rhode Island vs. 9) Michigan
@Dallas
4) Kansas vs. 13) Buffalo
5) Wichita St vs. 12) Missouri St
@San Diego
3) Arizona vs. 14) UC-Davis
6) Butler vs. 11) St Mary's
@Charlotte
2) Virginia vs. 15) Radford
7) Tennessee vs. 10) UCLA

MIDWEST 32
@Detroit
1) Michigan St vs. 16) Canisius
8) Notre Dame vs. 9) Texas
@Dallas
4) TCU vs. 13) Lipscomb
5) Texas A&M vs. 12) Tulsa
@Wichita
3) North Carolina vs. 14) Louisiana
6) Arkansas vs. 11) New Mexico St
@Detroit
2) Xavier vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Nevada vs. 10) Missouri

1/6 S-CURVE

There's still a whiff of projection in these brackets but the smell will subside over time.  Here's a refresher on our autobid rules:  conference leader is projected in no matter what.  In case of ties, we'll employ head-to-head if available, and use RPI if not available.  It leads to some funky entries early.

- St Mary's gets the early nod for WCC autobid, they're right on the bubble
- Tulsa backdoors into the bracket this week as the AAC leader...this won't last

The 1 line:  Duke (13-1), Michigan St (15-1), Villanova (13-1), Oklahoma (12-1)
The 2 line:  Arizona St (12-2), Xavier (15-1), Virginia (13-1), West Virginia (13-1)
The 3 line:  Kentucky (12-2), Purdue (14-2), North Carolina (12-3), Arizona (12-3)
The 4 line:  TCU (13-1), Kansas (11-3), Seton Hall (13-2), Florida St (12-2)
The 5 line:  Wichita St (12-2), Texas A&M (11-3), Texas Tech (13-1), Cincinnati (13-2)
The 6 line:  Clemson (13-1), Arkansas (11-3), Miami (12-2), Butler (12-4)
The 7 line:  Tennessee (9-4), Gonzaga (13-3), Creighton (12-3), Nevada (14-3)
The 8 line:  Notre Dame (11-3), Auburn (13-1), Rhode Island (10-3), Florida (10-4)
The 9 line:  Michigan (12-3), Minnesota (13-3), Texas (10-4), Louisville (11-3)
The 10 line:  UCLA (11-4), Missouri (10-3), Syracuse (12-3), Maryland (12-4)
The 11 line:  St Mary's (14-2), Boise St (12-2), Ohio St (12-4), SMU (12-4), Utah (10-4), New Mexico St (10-3)
The 12 line:  Missouri St (12-3), Middle Tennessee (9-4), Tulsa (10-5), William & Mary (8-4)
The 13 line:  Buffalo (8-5), South Dakota (11-4), Lipscomb (7-5), Belmont (11-5)
The 14 line:  Vermont (9-5), UC-Davis (8-5), East Tennessee St (9-4), Louisiana (11-3)
The 15 line:  Northern Kentucky (8-5), Princeton (7-7), Radford (7-6), Montana St (8-6)
The 16 line:  Canisius (9-7), Robert Morris (9-7), Bucknell (8-8), New Orleans (3-8), Morgan St (3-9), Texas Southern (2-13)

Next 4 in:
UCLA
Missouri
Syracuse
Maryland

Last 4 in:
St Mary's*
Boise St
Ohio St
SMU
Utah

Last 4 out:
New Mexico St*
Baylor (9-4)
USC (11-5)
St Bonaventure (11-3)
Missouri St*
St John's (9-5)

Next 4 out:
Marquette (11-4)
Mississippi St (12-1)
Houston (12-3)
San Diego St (9-4)


Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
B1G 6
Big East 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 4
MWC 2
WCC 2

Quick analysis of the conference breakdowns:
- AAC, thanks to Tulsa, gets to 4 bids.  I think this might be their max for the season, it's going to be tough to hold onto 4 bids by March
- Pac-12 with only 4.  They're weak, but there's enough wins to go around to get a 4th team, and maybe a 5th team in
- Big 12 only with 6 in this time.  Baylor has computer number issues in particular.  6 seems about right, and I'd bet on 7 before 5.  Tech fixed a lot of problems with their win, which is a key component of the Big 12 maxing out at 7 bids
- SEC, Big East, and ACC with 7, 5, and 9.  These are good over/unders, for the betting type
- Big 10 have 6.  This feels like their max.  The bottom half of the conference is garbage, and 4 bids is more likely than 7 for them
- I'd be pretty surprised if the Mountain West couldn't get 2 teams in this year.  By that same token, same for the A-10, but boy I'd like a 3rd contender to emerge just in case to make it easier on them

1/4 recap

B1G:
@Michigan St 91, Maryland 61
Ohio St 92, @Iowa 81 - road wins are never trivial.  OSU creeping in and around the bubble discussion

Pac-12:
@Colorado 90, Arizona St 81 (OT) - that's your first mistake, ASU.  I expect some regressing to the mean shortly
Arizona 94, @Utah 82 - see, this is what elite teams do with their road games
@Stanford 107, UCLA 99 (OT) - not a good road loss
USC 80, @California 62

AAC:
@Wichita St 81, Houston 63
Cincinnati 55, @Temple 53 - road wins are never trivial
@Tulane 73, SMU 70 - ooh, that's a sloppy game to drop now...unless Tulane is secretly good.  Which I doubt very much

WCC:
Gonzaga 89, @Pepperdine 59
@St Mary's 74, Pacific 56
BYU 69, @San Francisco 59

MVC:
@Missouri St 62, Northern Iowa 55

elsewhere:
Middle Tennessee 71, @Florida International 66

1/3 recap

Big 12:
@Oklahoma 109, Oklahoma St 89 - every home hold now matters when you're contending for the 1 line

Big East:
Marquette 95, @Providence 90 (OT) - still not very sure how good either of these teams are
@Creighton 78, St John's 71

ACC:
Virginia 78, @Virginia Tech 52 - not a good look for a team that fancies themselves a bubble team
@Florida St 81, North Carolina 80
@Georgia Tech 64, Miami 54 - ouch.  I look at road losses this way:  you're going to absorb a few.  You just have to be careful where you "spend" them.  This is a nice way of saying:  Don't lose road games at bad teams, you're going to have a tough enough time winning against the decent ones
Clemson 74, @Boston College 70 - here's a good example of not using up any bubble equity against a worse team
@Wake Forest 73, Syracuse 67 - and this goes in the same bucket as the Miami loss
@Notre Dame 88, NC State 58

B1G:
@Purdue 82, Rutgers 51
@Minnesota 77, Illinois 67

SEC:
Kentucky 74, @LSU 71
@Georgia 71, Ole Miss 60
Missouri 79, @South Carolina 68

AAC:
@UCF 65, Memphis 56

A-10:
@Rhode Island 74, LaSalle 62 - poor A-10, reduced to commoners status this year.  Plenty of A-10 games that just don't matter were played.  VCU was a longshot anyways but lost at St Joe's
@Dayton 82, St Bonaventure 72 - and that's a stumble.  Can't afford many of those, yo

MVC:
Drake is 3-0 in this conference.  Loyola(Chi) punted a home game to Indiana St.  This is the worst bubble situation you'll ever see for an 8th ranked conference.

MWC:
@Boise St 90, New Mexico 62
@Nevada 92, Wyoming 83
UNLV 82, @San Jose St 76 (OT) - holds for all the relevant teams on this night

1/2 recap

We're getting close to Bracketology season where brackets will go up every 3-4 days.  Am going to wait a day or so more to let a few more conference results trickle in so I can put some leaders in the bracket.

Big East:
@Xavier 86, Butler 79
Georgetown won a road game!  Wow!  After such a terrible non-con SoS, to add a Big East roa-oh wait, it was DePaul.  Never mind

Big 12:
Texas Tech 85, @Kansas 73 - okay, now I'll pay attention to Tech a bit
TCU 81, @Baylor 78 - we may need to revisit things:  with a loaded Big 12, is Baylor the odd team out?

SEC:
Florida 83, @Texas A&M 66 - now here's a Group 0 win as I like to call it.  At least, it should be, but this is a concerning start for A&M in the SEC.  Starting to wonder if they'll all beat each other up and keep each other from the top 3 lines
@Mississippi St 78, Arkansas 75 - I'm still not sure how good MSU is.  It's a paper-thin resume for a 13-1 team.  Still, this is a service hold you need if you're gonna make the tourney
Auburn 94, @Tennessee 84 - meanwhile, here's a Group 1 win for Auburn, as both teams feel like tourney teams.  The middle of this SEC could be fun
@Vanderbilt 76, Alabama 75 - if you're an SEC bubble team, you'll lose a couple roadies...but you don't want to spend one of them against Vandy

ACC:
@Louisville 77, Pittsburgh 51

B1G:
@Wisconsin 71, Indiana 61
Michigan 75, @Iowa 68 - road wins are never trivial
@Maryland 75, Penn St 69 - service hold
Nebraska 70, @Northwestern 55 - this is a loss that will remove NU from bubble discussion for awhile

MWC:
San Diego St 77, @Colorado St 68

elsewhere:

It was matchday 1 in the MAC.....highly ranked league for them (10th) but no legitimate at-large candidates.  Buffalo is the best team, probably, and holds over Toledo for win 1

CAA:  Charleston beats Delaware to go 2-0, and Towson...loses at Elon.  Maybe Elon is a contender, not Towson.  There's a pretty decent top half of the conference, and if one team can separate...

Vermont picks up a token road win at Harvard

Bucknell loses at home to Boston U in the Patriot...uh oh

1/1 recap

Quiet night, as is to be expected.

West Virginia 77, @Kansas St 69
Texas 74, @Iowa St 70 - repeat after me....road wins are never trivial