Retirement

 It's time to call it.

My short post from the preseason still pretty much applies.  I just don't have the time to do this anymore, at least at the high level required.  My jobs basically require me to be absent for days at a time, at in a sport like this, you really can't take a day off of following the sport.  The data analysis required to do this is simply beyond my capability.

I tried and stopped a few times in January and February to catch up.  The thing is, you just can't catch up here or there.  It needs to be everywhere.  Because projections have to account for everyone.  One team's standing is always influence by every other team around it.  Because of this, I just don't have to time to fully catch up at any point.  And I can't follow the sport day-by-day right now.

I'm glad bracketology has evolved to the point where the work needed to do it properly is beyond my capability.  That shows that people actually care about this, and care about proper data analysis in general.  I leave this hobby to the professionals and the aspiring professionals, as this no longer belongs to the amateurs.

I won't rule out un-retirement, but it'll take a wildly different life circumstance than what I'm facing right now, and I don't want to imagine what that change would actually look like.

So go forth all aspiring bracketologists.  Keep fighting the good fight.

Recaps 11/9 - 11/12

Recaps will be every few days.

Tuesday 11/9

Kansas 87, Michigan St 74

Duke 79, Kentucky 71 - my take remains the same on these games year in and year out - they don't have as big an impact on seeding as you'd think at first.  All these teams will pile up plenty of signature win chances this season.  The one exception may be Duke, as the ACC might be down.  So this could be a useful resume win

Most of the rest of the results fit the general category of catastrophic loss, or near-disaster miss.  I really won't get into the near-losses, like Houston or Ohio St barely holding on....in the end we've seen the committee treat wins as wins and that's that.

disasters:

Navy 66, @Virginia 58
UC San Diego 80, @Cal 67

Citadel 78, @Pitt 63

Miami(OH) 72, @Georgia Tech 69

Nicholls St 62, @Northern Iowa 58 - Nicholls might be good, but still

SEMO 99, @Missouri St 94 - this was a dumb opening night for the MVC

Western Illinois 75, @Nebraska 74
@Chicago St 77, St Thomas 72 (OT) - yes, your first D1 game ever, and you lose on the road in overtime, and it counts as a disaster

Northern Illinois 71, @Washington 64

The question:  Do any of these teams that pull off early upsets have bubble hopes?  We've seen year after year, a couple mid-majors gain traction in the bubble discussion, but it almost always wears off by March.  Many of the teams that get upset early end up being actually not good, which kills the at-large resume of the mid-major.  And the mid-major itself will inevitably take a couple dumb losses.  We'll see if anyone in this list matters in March, but I'm not hopeful.

interesting games:
@Ohio 92, Belmont 80 - two teams that oughta be pretty good.  Belmont has history with flirting with the bubble, so they know their chances for quality wins are very rare.  This as a road win would've been one

Wednesday 11/10

What nerds play the 2nd day instead of the 1st?  I see no actionable results here.

Thursday 11/11

Vermont 71, @Northern Iowa 57 - given how bad AEast usually is, this might be worth a seed line (16 to 15)

UC Riverside 66, @Arizona St 65 - the bottom of the Pac-12 might be bad again

Friday 11/12

@UCLA 86, Villanova 77 (OT) - see my comment about the big matchup on opening night.  I don't see myself changing outlook for either of these teams.  But maybe if the Pac-12 bottom is going to be trash, then this might help UCLA's seed by a line or so

Virginia Tech 77, @Navy 57 - worth noting because Navy picked off Virginia, and this was a true road game for VT

@BYU 66, San Diego St 60 - really important game for both teams' at large hopes.  Quality win chances aren't very frequent in their conferences

disasters:

Utah St 85, @Richmond 74 - a bit surprised here, even more so because USU punted a home game to UC-Davis earlier in the week.  Bad look for the A-10

Furman 80, @Louisville 72 - here comes the SoCon again.  Strong conference the past couple of years, and this is the type of road win you hope you can build an at-large resume around.  Of all the early upsets, Furman's the one team that I'd project to matter in March

Oakland 56, @Oklahoma St 55

SEED LIST preseason

The 1 line: Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas, UCLA
The 2 line: Purdue, Texas, Duke, Kentucky
The 3 line: Illinois, Baylor, Villanova, Alabama
The 4 line: Ohio St, North Carolina, Memphis, Arkansas
The 5 line: Houston, Oregon, Florida St, UConn
The 6 line: St Bonaventure, Tennessee, Auburn, Michigan St
The 7 line: Maryland, Virginia, San Diego St, USC
The 8 line: Virginia Tech, Indiana, Texas Tech, Loyola
The 9 line: Xavier, Louisville, Richmond, Colorado
The 10 line: Iowa, Syracuse, LSU, Florida
The 11 line: Colorado St, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Creighton
The 12 line: Buffalo, Belmont, Drake, Arizona, Ohio, Liberty
The 13 line: New Mexico St, South Dakota St, UAB, UCSB
The 14 line: Georgia St, Furman, Northeastern, Winthrop
The 15 line: Yale, Wright St, Colgate, Iona
The 16 line: Weber St, Vermont, Bryant, Nicholls St, Morgan St, Texas Southern




Last 4 in:
Creighton
Drake
Arizona
Ohio

Last 4 out:
Nevada
Notre Dame
Washington St
BYU

Next 4 out:
Oklahoma
St John's
Seton Hall
Mississippi St



Break it down!:
B1G 9
ACC 7
SEC 7
Big 12 5
Pac-12 5
Big East 4
MWC 2
AAC 2
A-10 2
MVC 2
MAC 2

Bracketology is a young man's game

Welcome to another college basketball season.  A preseason bracket should be up today, although we all know the drill by now with those.  The main purpose of it is to try and project how strong conferences are, more than to project any single team.  Pay more attention to the range of seeds from conferences, rather than where individual teams are seeded, or which teams are actually included.

We'll have brief daily updates, god willing, again this year, but we're not going to have the depth of analysis most bracketologists will have.  Fact is, I'm approaching two decades of bracketology, and the young kids have caught up.  When I started, this was a niche field with not many people providing serious analysis.  I saw my role as filling a void of analysis.

Today, that role is very well filled.  Hundreds of solid amateur bracketologists have spouted up across the country, and they can simply do better than what I can provide with my free time and schedule at this point.  It's just a fact.  I don't have the resources to scientifically measure and analyze the teams in the way that they do.  (A lot of this is that this isn't my job - hey, pay me full time to do this and I'd be back to the top).

So it's time to reset expectations for this particular blog.  We're not going to try and compete with the top dogs anymore.  My prime is over.  This is now going to be about trying to find the blind spots that everyone else has, and filling in the gaps best I can.  There's still gonna be bad takes, and bad analysis, and it's my job to help you all not get fooled by it.

Bracket coming before the start of the year.  Expect my traditional multi-bid MAC and all the other preseason bracket bells and whistles you know and love from me.

BRACKET FINAL

First and last bracket of the year.

REGION 1  33

1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Mt St Mary's/Norfolk St

8) Florida vs. 9) North Carolina

4) Florida St vs. 13) Colgate

5) Villanova vs. 12) Winthrop

3) Texas vs. 14) Grand Canyon

6) LSU vs. 11) VCU

2) Iowa vs. 15) Drexel

7) BYU vs. 10) UConn

REGION 2  34

1) Michigan vs. 16) Oral Roberts

8) Clemson vs. 9) St Bonaventure

4) West Virginia vs. 13) UC Santa Barbara

5) Missouri vs. 12) Georgetown

3) Kansas vs. 14) Abilene Christian

6) Colorado vs. 11) Utah St/Syracuse

2) Alabama vs. 15) Iona

7) Oregon vs. 10) Michigan St

REGION 3  36

1) Illinois vs. 16) Appalachian St

8) Oklahoma vs. 9) Georgia Tech

4) Virginia vs. 13) UNC Greensboro

5) Creighton vs. 12) Oregon St

3) Oklahoma St vs. 14) Morehead St

6) USC vs. 11) Louisville

2) Houston vs. 15) Eastern Washington

7) Wisconsin vs. 10) Virginia Tech

REGION 4  33

1) Baylor vs. 16) Hartford/Texas Southern

8) Loyola vs. 9) Rutgers

4) Purdue vs. 13) Ohio

5) Tennessee vs. 12) North Texas

3) Arkansas vs. 14) Liberty

6) Texas Tech vs. 11) UCLA/Wichita St

2) Ohio St vs. 15) Cleveland St

7) San Diego St vs. 10) Maryland

SEED LIST FINAL

I've made one course correction in favor of the ACC schools - I think I've been low-rating them based on the fact several conference wins were teetering on the Q1/Q2 cutoff - I've given modest bumps to everyone to account for this.

Where I'm gonna be wrong:

- The 2 line.  Houston over Texas.  Playing the hunch the committee just takes the higher ranked team instead of more loaded resume

- The 4-6 lines.  Biggest jumble of the entire grid to me.  I think both Nova and Tennessee have excellent arguments for the 4 line.  Just believe the ACC schools, with my correction, go there.

- The bubble.  Starting to hate Wichita's resume the more I look at it, but as far as I can see, their weaknesses aren't weak enough to lose out to Drake and the MWC schools.  That Houston win is everything right now.

- The mid-major champs.  I don't feel confident at all about Loyola, SDSU, and Bonaventure's seed.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

The 2 line:  Alabama, Ohio St, Iowa, Houston

The 3 line:  Texas, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Kansas

The 4 line:  West Virginia, Purdue, Virginia, Florida St

The 5 line:  Villanova, Tennessee, Creighton, Missouri

The 6 line:  Colorado, Texas Tech, USC, LSU

The 7 line:  Oregon, San Diego St, BYU, Wisconsin

The 8 line:  Florida, Loyola, Oklahoma, Clemson

The 9 line:  Georgia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, North Carolina

The 10 line:  UConn, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Michigan St

The 11 line:  VCU, Louisville, UCLA, Utah St, Syracuse, Wichita St

The 12 line:  Georgetown, Oregon St, North Texas, Winthrop

The 13 line:  Colgate, UNC Greensboro, Ohio, UC Santa Barbara

The 14 line:  Abilene Christian, Liberty, Morehead St, Grand Canyon

The 15 line:  Eastern Washington, Drexel, Cleveland St, Iona

The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Appalachian St, Hartford, Mt St Mary's, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Last 4 in:

UCLA

Utah St

Syracuse

Wichita St

Last 4 out:

Drake

Colorado St

Ole Miss

Boise St

SEED LIST 3/14 am

I'm already annoyed at myself for putting in Syracuse.  Here's a hunch that the committee devalues the road records of everyone, which is a dagger to Drake's resume.

I'm really, really not sold on Louisville or UCLA making this tournament, but I'm guessing the squeeze happens to the Mountain West schools instead.

The 1 line:  Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

The 2 line:  Alabama, Ohio St, Iowa, Houston

The 3 line:  Texas, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Kansas

The 4 line:  West Virginia, Purdue, Villanova, Virginia

The 5 line:  Tennessee, Florida St, Creighton, Colorado

The 6 line:  Missouri, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, USC

The 7 line:  LSU, Oregon, San Diego St, BYU

The 8 line:  Florida, Loyola, Oklahoma, Clemson

The 9 line:  Georgia Tech, St Bonaventure, Rutgers, UConn

The 10 line:  Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, VCU

The 11 line:  Michigan St, Louisville, Wichita St, UCLA, Utah St, Syracuse

The 12 line:  Georgetown, Oregon St, North Texas, Winthrop

The 13 line:  Colgate, UNC Greensboro, Ohio, UC Santa Barbara

The 14 line:  Abilene Christian, Liberty, Morehead St, Grand Canyon

The 15 line:  Eastern Washington, Drexel, Cleveland St, Iona

The 16 line:  Oral Roberts, Appalachian St, Hartford, Mt St Mary's, Norfolk St, Texas Southern

Last 4 in:

Wichita St

UCLA

Utah St

Syracuse

Last 4 out:

Drake

Colorado St

Ole Miss

Boise St

Next 4 out:

Duke

St Louis

Xavier

Western Kentucky