Friday, February 24, 2017

2/24 S-CURVE

The 1 line:  Kansas (25-3), Gonzaga (29-0), Villanova (26-3), North Carolina (23-5)
The 2 line:  Baylor (22-5), Louisville (22-6), Oregon (24-4), Arizona (26-3)
The 3 line:  Florida (23-5), Kentucky (23-5), Butler (22-6), Duke (22-6)
The 4 line:  Florida St (22-6), UCLA (25-3), West Virginia (21-6), Purdue (23-5)
The 5 line:  Cincinnati (25-3), Notre Dame (21-7), Creighton (21-6), Minnesota (21-7)
The 6 line:  Virginia (18-9), St Mary's (25-3), SMU (24-4), Maryland (21-6)
The 7 line:  Wisconsin (22-6), South Carolina (19-8), Iowa St (18-9), Oklahoma St (18-9)
The 8 line:  Northwestern (20-8), Virginia Tech (18-9), Xavier (18-10), Miami (19-8)
The 9 line:  Michigan St (17-11), VCU (23-5), USC (21-7), Dayton (21-5)
The 10 line:  Middle Tennessee (23-4), Arkansas (21-7), Michigan (18-10), Wichita St (25-4)
The 11 line:  Syracuse (17-12), Seton Hall (17-10), Marquette (17-10), Kansas St (17-11), Vanderbilt (15-13), Georgia Tech (15-12)
The 12 line:  Nevada (22-6), Texas-Arlington (19-6), UNC-Wilmington (23-5), Illinois St (23-5)
The 13 line:  Akron (21-6), Monmouth (24-5), Princeton (16-6), Vermont (24-5)
The 14 line:  East Tennessee St (21-6), Valparaiso (22-6), Belmont (20-5), Cal St-Bakersfield (17-7)
The 15 line:  North Dakota St (17-9), Winthrop (20-6), Bucknell (22-8), FGCU (20-7)
The 16 line:  Texas Southern (16-11), New Orleans (14-9), North Dakota (14-8), North Carolina Central (18-6), Mount St Mary's (15-15), UC-Davis (15-11)

Next 4 in:
Michigan
Wichita St
Syracuse
Seton Hall

Last 4 in:
Marquette
Kansas St
Vanderbilt
Georgia Tech

Last 4 out:
Providence (17-11)
California (18-9)
TCU (16-11)
Wake Forest (16-12)

Next 4 out:
Tennessee (14-13)
Illinois (15-12)
Clemson (14-13)
Pittsburgh (15-13)

NIT lines:
The 3 line:  Rhode Island (18-9), Houston (19-8), Alabama (16-11), Indiana (15-13)
The 4 line:  Boise St (16-9), Georgia (15-12), Georgetown (14-14), Texas Tech (17-11)
The 5 line:  Ole Miss (17-11), Utah (16-10), Colorado St (17-9), Ohio St (16-13)
---typical bubble cutline after autobids fill the bottom---
The 6 line:  Richmond (16-11), Charleston (21-8), Arkansas St (18-8), BYU (20-10)
The 7 line:  New Mexico St (20-5), Stanford (13-13), Penn St (14-14), Auburn (17-11)
The 8 line:  UConn (13-13), New Mexico (16-12), St Bonaventure (17-10), Memphis (18-10)
Last 4 out:  Iowa (15-13), Towson (18-11), Central Florida (18-10), UNC-Asheville (20-8)

Top 16 report:

MIDWEST 36
1) Kansas @Tulsa
2) Arizona @Salt Lake City
3) Duke @Greenville
4) West Virginia @Buffalo

SOUTH 34
1) North Carolina @Greenville
2) Baylor @Tulsa
3) Florida @Orlando
4) Purdue @Milwaukee

EAST 33
1) Villanova @Buffalo
2) Louisville @Indianapolis
3) Kentucky @Indianapolis
4) UCLA @Sacramento

WEST 33
1) Gonzaga @Salt Lake City
2) Oregon @Sacramento
3) Butler @Milwaukee
4) Florida St @Orlando

The problem is Duke in this bracket.  If I just assigned everyone based on geography, Duke as the last 3 seed gets placed in the West.  But thanks to other various conference conflicts, that makes the west far too weak compared to the other 3 regionals.  So I had to move Duke out of the West and place Butler there instead.  The teams that get a raw deal are:
- Butler (has to be sent west to make everything fit)
- Florida St (but they are the 4th ACC team, and someone has to go West...)
- UCLA (can't fit them into the South or the Midwest without throwing off the balance significantly)

Everyone else gets pretty acceptable regional draws.

Break it down!
ACC 10
B1G 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
SEC 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 2
A-10 2
WCC 2
MVC 2

8 comments:

HenryMuto said...

Clemson is officially dead you are not making it at 6-12 in your league.

HenryMuto said...

TCU got robbed. How does a ref call a foul like that and it was on their home floor to boot. I seen players get mugged in tie games in the final seconds with no call and they call that ?

HenryMuto said...

Winthrop gets the coveted #1 seed and home court for the Big South tournament with the Gardner-Webb OT win over High Point 88-86 (they did their best to blow a 9 point lead in the final 30 seconds as High Point had ball down 2 with 6 second left but missed.)

HenryMuto said...

I wonder if Kentucky can climb to a 2 seed if they win out until the SEC Finals. I don't know if the committee actually takes into account the SEC Finals because of it being on Sunday. I know they say they do but last year they clearly did not with Kentucky beating A&M and Kentucky got a 4 seed and A&M 3 seed and they had tied in regular season and Kentucky had similar profile before winning.

Andrew said...

They have a reasonable chance at the 2 line; they could use some Baylor and Arizona losses.

Maybe, just maybe, this year they'll save a spot on the 2 line and 3 line, and pray Kentucky/Florida is the SEC title game. Give the 2 to the winner. It's doable.

HenryMuto said...

Baylor where are they now ? Most everyone had them at #5 but now I see some slipping them all the way to a 3 seed at #9.

Andrew said...

I think I'm still taking Baylor over Kentucky and Florida and especially Duke now, so I can't drop them to the 3 line, but it's getting close.

HenryMuto said...

Oh Northwestern how did you lose that game ???????????????????