Below are mini-profiles for every team in at-large contention, and quick blurbs for those that just missed that cut. It's a one-stop shop for quick information - has all the main metrics, list of notable wins/losses, and a quick takeaway or two from the profile to consider. Use this to quickly compare teams, to identify where a team is weak and where it's strong. It's a bit wall of text-y, but there's no way around that.
ACC
Lockbox
North Carolina (22-5) (11-3) RPI 5 SoS 17
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con
SoS 26, 9-3 vs. Top 50, 13-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Wisky, FSU,
UND, Virginia
Bad losses: @Indiana
This resume smells like a 2 seed, no?
Minus an elite, elite win, but a bunch of really good wins. Well, they have 3 elite opponents coming up,
so they can charge to the 1 line. Just
not there yet.
Louisville (22-5) (10-4) RPI 4 SoS 4
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 10, 6-5 vs. Top 50, 12-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Purdue,
Kentucky, Duke
Bad losses: none at all
Their best away from home win is…Wichita St, I think? That might be the only nit to pick with this
resume, and something like that may keep them from the 1 line, but it’s no big
deal. That’s just the difference between
the 1 line and the 2 line right now.
Duke (22-5) (10-4) RPI 11 SoS 22
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 75, 8-4 vs. Top 50, 13-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Florida, UNC,
@Virginia
Bad losses: NC State, I suppose
@VT?
As far as they slipped down…they’re more than fine, and compare
favorable with other 2 seeds minus a couple of details. The non-con SoS is merely very good instead
of great, and they mixed in a terribad home loss. That leaves them a step behind. But more signature win chances loom. The 1 line is do-able here.
Florida St (21-6) (9-5) RPI 12 SoS 25
Vital signs: 5-6 R/N, non-con
SoS 133, 9-2 vs. Top 50, 12-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Florida,
@Virginia, Duke, Louisville
Bad losses: N-Temple…@Pitt,
Syracuse, and GT I suppose
That road record is a bit concerning, if we’re talking about a chance
at a 2 seed. Good collection of high
quality wins, though. All those marginal
road losses by themselves aren’t bad, but in combination, it’s a concerning
trend. One that @Virginia doesn’t quite
erase.
Virginia (18-8) (8-6) RPI 15 SoS 7
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con
SoS 57, 6-6 vs. Top 50, 10-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: swept Louisville,
@ND, @Cal?
Bad losses: @Pitt I suppose is
the worst
Swept Louisville but most most other games against truly elite
competition. No big deal normally, but
it leaves them behind several other ACC teams, which could hurt during
seeding. No real risk of falling below a
6 or so.
Notre Dame (21-7) (10-5) RPI 25 SoS 31
Vital signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con
SoS 163, 6-6 vs. Top 50, 9-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Louisville, FSU,
Northwestern?
Bad losses: @GT is the worst
No real risk of missing the tournament, but it’s tough to have enough
momentum to crack the top 4 lines with this resume. Kind of stuck in bracketology purgatory where
they’ll be a 5-7 seed and very uninteresting to talk about in the next month
Bubble
Virginia Tech (18-8) (7-7) RPI 35 SoS 58
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con
SoS 291, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 10-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Duke, Virginia,
@Michigan
Bad losses: @NC State, N-A&M
Gulp, that non-con SoS is in the true danger zone. But two signature home wins might be enough
to mask that on this bubble. They’ve
held serve in enough games as well, with 10 top 100 wins. The non-con SoS has a problem with 5 300+
opponents, but does have 5 opponents between 51-100. Who knows how exactly the committee will
respond.
Miami (18-8) (8-6) RPI 45 SoS 58
Vital signs: 5-6 R/N, non-con SoS
254, 2-7 vs. Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: UNC, VT? @Pitt?
Uh
Bad losses: @Syracuse is the
worst, maybe @Wake
Kind of the quintessential bubble team that ends up making the
tournament. Just good enough on the
road. Just good enough against the top
100. Posted the one signature win. Very marginal non-con SoS complicates the
situation though. They’ve held at home
over the other bubble teams, so that’s good.
What’s not good is the schedule:
@Va, Duke, @VT, @FSU. 2-2 is
enough to get to the lockbox, but good luck with that.
Syracuse (16-12) (8-7) RPI 87 SoS 53
Vital signs: 2-9 R/N, non-con
SoS 157, 5-6 vs. Top 50, 7-9 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: FSU, Virginia,
Miami?
Bad losses: @Pit? @GT?
@BC for sure. St John’s at home
The damning problem here is all the damage has been done in home
games. Clemson is their one road win of
note. They’ve only got Louisville on the
road left to try and rectify that problem, and Duke’s on the sked too. So they either pick up a signature win, or
fall off the bubble. A very solvent
situation.
Georgia Tech (15-11) (7-7) RPI 76 SoS 47
Vital signs: 2-8 R/N, non-con
SoS 235, 4-7 vs. Top 50, 6-10 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @VCU, UNC, FSU,
ND
Bad losses: Georgia at home,
Ohio too
That non-con SoS is not a good situation. And a bad road record. Those two things combined usually equal
death, but they have a collection of signature wins better than most teams on
the bubble, so they might survive. With
winnable games coming, they will either move forward or way back. That @VCU win is so huge because of all the
road losses to bubble teams.
Wake Forest (15-12) (6-9) RPI 38 SoS 16
Vital signs: 6-9 R/N, non-con
SoS 17, 1-9 vs. Top 50, 5-12 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Miami, GT, uh
Bad losses: swept by Clemson?
So every loss is reasonable, except maybe Clemson at home. Problem is simple. Look at that list of wins. The other top 100 wins are Charleston,
Bucknell, and Richmond. When you have as
many chances as Wake does in conference play, you have to cash in more than
just Miami and GT at home. They’ve only
got a couple chances left to add. This
likely isn’t happening, the committee needs to see a team like this cash in a
better signature win than Miami.
Clemson (14-12) (4-10) RPI 59 SoS 18
Vital signs: 5-8 R/N, non-con
SoS 99, 4-9 vs. Top 50, 9-11 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @S Carolina,
swept Wake?
Bad losses: N-Oklahoma, Syracuse
Probably can’t justify them holding on too much longer. 4 Top 50 wins seem sexy, but 2 are Wake and
another is UNCW. Perhaps the worst of
all, outside of signature win chances outside of FSU at home. Sure, they can win their way into the
tourney, but I’m not optimistic.
Pittsburgh (15-12) (4-10) RPI 60 SoS 11
Vital signs: 4-7 R/N, non-con
SoS 38, 3-8 vs. Top 50, 6-10 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Maryland,
Virginia, FSU
Bad losses: @NC State, N-Duquesne
Too many losses. Tis a shame,
because the high end part of the resume holds up. But when you play that many high end games in
a high end conference, you can’t lose that many swing games. Syra, Miami, Clemson, VT…you gotta win swing
games, and they just didn’t get them.
Not completely dead yet, though.
Big East
Lockbox
Villanova (26-2) (13-2) RPI 2 SoS 31
Vital signs: 13-2 R/N, non-con
SoS 44, 9-1 vs. Top 50, 15-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Purdue, N-ND,
@Crei
Bad losses: @Marquette is the
worst
I think you can make an argument for Kansas ahead of them just based on
resume. Kansas has better signature
wins. But Nova passes the eye test for
#1 overall. Either way, there won’t be much
difference between #1 and #2 overall, so it’s no big deal, but I’d consider the
switch.
Butler (21-6) (10-5) RPI 13 SoS 21
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 11, 7-2 vs. Top 50, 15-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Arizona,
Cincy, Nova, N-Northwestern?
Bad losses: @Indiana St, @St
John’s
It’s really aggravating they lost a few games they shouldn’t have. 4 losses to non-tourney teams which is just
frustrating. They’ve got high end
wins. They have the sterling SoS, every
vital sign is great. Just those stupid
losses. It’ll catch up with them as they
have a tough finish coming up and they’re going to absorb reasonable losses.
Creighton (21-5) (9-5) RPI 22 SoS 42
Vital signs: 10-2 R/N, non-con
SoS 109, 6-3 vs. Top 50, 10-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Wisky, swept
Butler, @X
Bad losses: home to Marquette
They’re in a good spot for a protected seed with a strong finish. They’ll be favored in 3 of those final 4
games, so it’s just a matter of holding their ground. Very good road/neutral record, none of the
vital signs are in bad shape. Your
bread-and-butter 5 seed at this point.
Bubble
Xavier (18-9) (8-6) RPI 17 SoS 6
Vital signs: 6-7 R/N, non-con
SoS 13, 3-6 vs. Top 50, 9-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Creighton,
N-Wake, N-Clemson?
Bad losses: @Colorado, @Provi?
Only here because I can’t call them a lock when they can still theoretically
suffer 5 more losses. They need some
better wins, and their seed will suffer as a result, but they’ve done enough
against decent competition to be solidly in the field. Great job scheduling in the non-con, avoiding
cupcakes, which led to a slightly deceiving #13 (but it does also include a
good pocket collection of wins like NDSU, Utah, Wake, and Clemson).
Marquette (16-10) (7-7) RPI 71 SoS 57
Vital signs: 4-7 R/N, non-con
SoS 239, 5-5 vs. Top 50, 7-9 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Nova, @Creighton,
Xavier
Bad losses: @St John’s, Provi?
A couple things to note: 5 Top
50 wins is great, although one is Vandy.
The non-con SoS is in the danger zone, which is hurt further by losses
to Michigan and Pitt which could really be useful right now. They had a bit of a cupcake problem in the
non-con. This is probably a true bubble
resume which will teeter on the edge.
Can’t make a definitive call on them right now.
Seton Hall (16-10) (6-8) RPI 47 SoS 33
Vital signs: 6-8 R/N, non-con
SoS 156, 3-6 vs. Top 50, 6-9 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-S Carolina,
N-Cal, Creighton
Bad losses: @St John’s,
N-Stanford?
The non-con SoS is marginal, but cupcakes appear to have sunk that, and
their wins aren’t the worst in the world among bubble teams. What kills them is just losing some of their
swing games in conference play (road games against other bubble teams, home
games against lockboxed teams). Need to
win a couple more of those to make it, and they’ve got a couple chances left.
Providence (16-11) (6-8) RPI 67 SoS 35
Vital signs: 3-8 R/N, non-con
SoS 194, 3-7 vs. Top 50, 8-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Butler and
Xavier; swept G’town?
Bad losses: St John’s, @DePaul,
@BC
This is an uber-generous listing, but they have a very light back 4
games with one exception @Creighton. If
they win their final four, there’s hope, but they need all 4 to erase a ton of
sins. The losses are worse than the
numbers would suggest.
Georgetown (14-13) (5-9) RPI 61 SoS 7
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con
SoS 19, 3-9 vs. Top 50, 6-13 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Oregon,
Creighton, @Butler
Bad losses: Arky State at home is the worst, which isn't THAT bad
Bad losses: Arky State at home is the worst, which isn't THAT bad
Ugly number of losses, and things like losing to other bubblers like
Provi 2x and SHU and others are just killer.
They’ve got high-end wins, so they force their way into a listing here. Gotta win a bunch, though. Probably all of ‘em down the stretch,
including Nova, to have a legit chance.
That Top 100 number is butt-ugly.
Big 12
Lockbox
Kansas (24-3) (12-2) RPI 1 SoS 5
Vital signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con
SoS 24, 7-2 vs. Top 50, 16-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Duke,
Baylorx2, WVU
Bad losses: N-Indiana
What’s likely going to keep them from catching Nova (without help) is
the one bad loss, and the non-con SoS just merely being great instead of
outstanding. Still, a remarkable track
record of handling their business. Could
still lose a 1 seed, but it would require multiple stunning losses.
Baylor (21-5) (9-5) RPI 3 SoS 1
Vital signs: 8-3 R/N, non-con
SoS 8, 8-3 vs. Top 50, 14-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Oregon,
N-Louisville, Xavier, N-VCU
Bad losses: K-State at home is
sloppy, @TTU is worse
Nothing too wrong with the resume, outside of maybe losing one game too
many in the conference. Losing to WVU
and Kansas 2x is forgivable. Their
non-con work still puts them in solid position, but the chance for a 1 seed is
in danger. They’re behind Nova and
Gonzaga and Kansas and can’t do a whole lot about that, and their spot is going
to be under siege from the ACC schools.
But! They hold trump cards on
Louisville and Oregon if they need them.
West Virginia (21-6) (9-5) RPI 28 SoS 63
Vital signs: 7-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 258, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 10-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Virginia,
Baylor, Kansas, @ISU and OSU?
Bad losses: @TTU, Oklahoma,
N-Temple
A couple sloppy losses, and a really sloppy SoS. They only had 3 Top 100 teams in the non-con
schedule, that really killed them. The
high-end wins will offset some, but not nearly all, of that. This is going to be a tricky balancing act
for the committee to figure out how high they go.
Bubble
Iowa St (17-9) (9-5) RPI 43 SoS 44
Vital signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con
SoS 157, 3-6 vs. Top 50, 7-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Kansas,
N-Miami, @OSU
Bad losses: @Texas, @Iowa,
@Vandy?
I do wish there was a second win over a lockboxed team to make this
easier. But given the current state of
the bubble, I think they’re fine on that front (and they have chances against
Baylor and WVU coming). That is one spot
of hesitation. With those two and Okie
State still coming, it wouldn’t be hard to fall to 18-12, and another
conference tourney loss and things get dicey.
None of the vital signs are in critical condition, yet at least.
Oklahoma St (17-9) (7-7) RPI 29 SoS 20
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con
SoS 32, 3-7 vs. Top 50, 7-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @WVU, Arky? @Wichita St?
Bad losses: @Texas, K-State at
home?
6 of their losses are clustered together to start Big 12 play. Might be a help, but I’m not sure. One bit of help is the non-con losses are UNC
and Maryland, so they avoided fatal blows in the non-con. The key will be to try and add a win or 2 to
the Top 50 tally (chances are coming) and to keep that Top 100 record around
.500. The other resume pieces are in
good shape for now.
Kansas St (17-10) (6-8) RPI 57 SoS 45
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con
SoS 236, 3-8 vs. Top 50, 4-10 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: WVU, @Baylor,
@OSU
Bad losses: @TTU, @Tennessee I
suppose
Two big wins make the resume, but there’s a couple warning signs of
note. That non-con SoS is an obvious
one, and is in the danger zone. Worse,
they’re out of chances for impact wins, so their task at the moment is fixing
that horrendous Top 100 record. This is
doable, though.
TCU (16-10) (6-8) RPI 58 SoS 32
Vital signs: 4-6 R/N, non-con
SoS 113, 2-8 vs. Top 50, 5-10 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Iowa St,
@K-State? Illinois St?
Bad losses: Auburn, @TTU
No win over a lockboxed team is not great. Most teams on the bubble are going to be able
to at least play that card. That poor
overall record v. the top 100 is damaging to the overall situation as a
result. Can’t beat great teams and can’t
hold own against good teams is usually a bad formula, combined with just okay
road/neutral and SoS numbers. Have
Kansas and WVU left, I recommend getting one.
Texas Tech (17-10) (5-9) RPI 90 SoS 89
Vital signs: 2-8 R/N, non-con
SoS 340, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 4-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Baylor, WVU,
K-State and TCU?
Bad losses: @Oklahoma, @Texas
Bad losses: @Oklahoma, @Texas
An absolutely terrifying 1-7 in true road games, and non-con SoS
340. This completely wipes out their
wins over WVU and Baylor, IMO. They make
the listing only because the two signature wins are truly notable, and road
chances at OSU and KSU are coming.
Winning those helps mask one of the flaws (although the other flaw will
doom them regardless).
B1G
Lockbox
Purdue (22-5) (11-3) RPI 20 SoS 51
Vital signs: 8-3 R/N, non-con
SoS 123, 6-3 vs. Top 50, 11-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-ND, Wisky,
@Maryland
Bad losses: @Nebraska, @Iowa
They’re a couple of sloppy road losses away from a real chance at the 2
or 3 line. As is, they miss the true
high-end win that can compete with the other competition for a top 2 seed. Everything in the profile is very good
without being great enough to reach that point.
Still, it would take serious damage to knock them into 7-8 range. And with 3 roadies coming up, it’s possible.
Wisconsin (22-5) (11-3) RPI 24 SoS 70
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 235, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 13-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Maryland, @Minny,
Michigan?
Bad losses: @Michigan, maybe
On the good, 13 Top 100 wins, although many of them are more trivial
than you think. Missing some high-end
wins that would really help, and that non-con SoS really worsens the problem. They’re going to be a seed or two below what
everyone else expects, I fear.
Maryland (21-5) (10-4) RPI 19 SoS 39
Vital signs: 10-2 R/N, non-con
SoS 100, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 13-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Oklahoma
St? @Minnesota and @Northwestern, ok
Bad losses: @Penn St, Nebraska?
They’ve got a signature win problem, but the road record helps erase
most concerns. This is a standard resume
for a 5-7 seed. It’s the type of resume
typically held by a mid-major – good road record, pile of good but not great wins,
couple marginal losses.
Bubble
Northwestern (20-7) (9-5) RPI 37 SoS 65
Vital signs: 7-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 172, 3-6 vs. Top 50, 8-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Dayton,
@Wisky, Wake?
Bad losses: Illinois
It’s happening. Sure, there’s
some weak spots in this resume. Just good
enough against good competition, just good enough on the road, just good enough
everywhere. There’s time to damage this
resume, to be fair, but it’s getting late.
Minnesota (20-7) (8-6) RPI 23 SoS 22
Vital signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 30, 5-5 vs. Top 50, 10-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Purdue, @NW,
Michigan?
Bad losses: @OSU and @PSU,
perhaps
The 5 Top 50 wins are mirage-y, with UTA and Vandy mixed in. But still, a solid performance against a
solid non-con schedule, plus a reasonably good conference performance means
relative safety. I can’t call them home
free yet because with a couple marginal losses already, a couple more would be
exponentially harmful.
Michigan St (16-11) (8-6) RPI 43 SoS 14
Vital signs: 4-9 R/N, non-con
SoS 18, 4-6 vs. Top 50, 8-10 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: swept Minny, NW,
Wichita St?
Bad losses: @OSU and Indiana and
PSU? Northeastern for sure
I’m not that optimistic here, there’s just enough to support the
at-large bid, but there’s holes. There’s
a couple too many marginal losses, and a couple too many road giveaways. Still in for now, but they have to hold serve
in games they’re supposed to win (and there’s a couple left).
Michigan (17-10) (7-7) RPI 55 SoS 33
Vital signs: 3-7 R/N, non-con
SoS 95, 3-7 vs. Top 50, 9-9 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-SMU, Wisky,
Michigan St?
Bad losses: OSU at home,
@Illinois and Iowa?
One true road win on the year.
That ain’t good. 3 more road
games still to come, 2 of them extremely winnable. Either they mask their problem, or they make
it into a bubble-bursting problem.
Pretty simple diagnosis of this profile.
Everything else here is just good enough to sneak into the field with.
Indiana (15-12) (5-9) RPI 90 SoS 37
Vital signs: 2-8 R/N, non-con SoS 151, 3-8 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Kansas, UNC, Michigan St
Bad losses: Nebraska, N-IPFW
Man, I don't know. What doesn't help is losing sooo many swing games in the conference. Swept by Michigan, lost to Minny and NW and swept by Wisky, lost to Purdue....win a swing game!
Indiana (15-12) (5-9) RPI 90 SoS 37
Vital signs: 2-8 R/N, non-con SoS 151, 3-8 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Kansas, UNC, Michigan St
Bad losses: Nebraska, N-IPFW
Man, I don't know. What doesn't help is losing sooo many swing games in the conference. Swept by Michigan, lost to Minny and NW and swept by Wisky, lost to Purdue....win a swing game!
Off the board:
Penn St (14-13) (6-8) RPI 73 SoS 25 – it’s not theoretically
impossible; they have wins over Minny, Maryland, and MSU, but nothing of
consequence on the road, so the raw number of losses is a big problem
Illinois (14-12) (5-9) RPI 67 SoS 16 – a couple too many bad losses,
and the wins aren’t high-impact enough.
Pass
Ohio St (15-13) (5-10) RPI 82 SoS 29 - nahhh
SEC
Lockbox
Kentucky (22-5) (12-2) RPI 8 SoS 11
Vital signs: 9-3 R/N, non-con
SoS 6, 6-5 vs. Top 50, 13-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-UNC, S.
Carolina, N-Michigan St?
Bad losses: probably @Tennessee
counts
Sneaky problem with the resume:
3 of those 6 Top 50 wins are Arky, @Vandy, and Georgia. You would hope for more depth, but the SEC
has hurt them. That one loss to UCLA is
pretty harmful right now; they could really use a second high-end win. Another Florida game awaits, at least.
Florida (22-5) (12-2) RPI 10 SoS 21
Vital signs: 15-4 R/N*, non-con
SoS 8, 5-5 vs. Top 50, 14-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Kentucky, @Arky,
N-Miami
Bad losses: home to Vandy is the
only real mistake
The usual caveat: they’re 8-2 in
true road games (they played a bunch of neutral site games in the state of
Florida in the non-con). Point is the
metric is flawed but the winning percentage is valid. Same general issue as Kentucky – could use
more depth of wins. SEC didn’t help;
they lost chances to Duke and FSU, and their non-con SoS is buoyed by
scheduling the right mid-majors.
Bubble
South Carolina (19-7) (10-4) RPI 30 SoS 43
Vital signs: 7-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 69, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 11-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Florida, N-Syracuse? @Tennessee
Bad losses: @Memphis technically
counts, home to Alabama?
I think they’ll be home free.
Beat Syracuse in New York, that other top 50 win was Monmouth. They’ve mostly beaten the teams they should
have, as the 11 Top 100 wins testify. No
metric of theirs is disqualifying. If
there’s an issue, the final week brings the Mississippi schools, who could
damage their resume with wins.
Arkansas (20-7) (9-5) RPI 33 SoS 62
Vital signs: 7-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 53, 4-5 vs. Top 50, 9-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @S Carolina,
@Tennessee? UTA?
Bad losses: MSU and Vandy at
home
That win at USC is huge, it’s their only win over a sure tourney team
at this point. When Vandy, UT, and UTA
are 3 of your Top 50 wins, your profile can be a bit deceiving. Down the stretch, they have one optional game
(@Florida) and 3 other games they really need to hold service in. Two marginal home losses mean there’s less
margin for error than you think.
Alabama (16-10) (9-5) RPI 74 SoS 65
Vital signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con
SoS 83, 2-5 v. Top 50, 4-9 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @S Carolina,
@Georgia? Oh no
Bad losses: @Texas, @Auburn
perhaps, N-Valpo?
Very marginal listing here. Only
here because of the road win at USC.
They’re out of quality teams to play, but winning those 4 would fix the
Top 100 mark, so we can’t kill them yet.
Tennessee (14-12) (7-7) RPI 50 SoS 10
Vital signs: 4-8 R/N, non-con
SoS 9, 2-8 vs. Top 50, 8-11 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Kentucky,
K-State, GT?
Bad losses: @MSU, I suppose Chattanooga counts too
Bad losses: @MSU, I suppose Chattanooga counts too
Only really here with the Kentucky win.
They did schedule up, and had plenty of chances to get big wins…and
missed all the other chances. Lost to S
Carolina and Arky at home, which really hurt the resume depth. One last chance @USC which is do or die for
them.
Vanderbilt (14-13) (7-7) RPI 49 SoS 3
Vital signs: 5-8 R/N, non-con
SoS 1, 4-7 vs. Top 50, 9-12 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Florida, Iowa
St, S Carolina, @Arky?
Bad losses: @Mizzou,
N-Bucknell? Auburn?
Only here because they have 4 probable wins over tourney teams, and
they own the Magic Bullet – the #1 non-con SoS.
Did a great job playing Belmont, Bucknell, M Tennessee, and others. Not so good was losing a few of those. MT, Minny, Marquette, Dayton…just missed
chance after missed chance. They still
have Kentucky and Florida coming though, so we must pay attention. This absolutely could be a resume that gets
in at 18-15 overall.
Off the board:
Ole Miss (16-11) (7-7) RPI 71 SoS 38 – 2-9 v Top 50, no wins over
tourney teams. No real chances to fix
either problem, so they’re stuck here
Georgia (14-12) (6-8) RPI 59 SoS 16 – another case where the metrics
are similar to other SEC teams, but they’re missing the big win that gives them
a real chance, and they’re out of such chances
Texas A&M (14-12) (6-8) RPI 96 SoS 51 – did you know they’re 1-11
vs. Top 50? Yikes
Auburn (16-11) (5-9) RPI 84 SoS 72 – if you’re wondering, their
signature win is @Alabama. Just can’t
make the case
Pac-12
Lockbox
Oregon (23-4) (13-2) RPI 7 SoS 26
Vital signs: 7-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 42, 6-2 vs. Top 50, 12-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Arizona, UCLA,
swept USC?
Bad losses: @Colorado, N-Gtown
It’ll be tough to see if they can ascend all the way to the 1
seed. Don’t think they can get enough
signature wins to matter. Borderline 2/3
seed at the moment, with a marginal loss at Colorado dooming the Pac-12 title
hopes. They did NOT have to play Arizona
on the road, so head-to-head doesn’t matter as much as you’d think.
Arizona (25-3) (14-1) RPI 8 SoS 38
Vital signs: 11-3 R/N, non-con SoS
28, 5-3 vs. Top 50, 11-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @UCLA, @USC and
Cal, N-Michigan St?
Bad losses: not even close to a
bad one
They lost their 3 toughest games on the schedule so far, so that
probably locks them out of the 1 line. 2
line is possible, but I’d like to see some more wins against UCLA (another game
is coming) and Oregon (which isn’t).
They may have to settle for the 4 line because their chance of improving
the resume is pretty small.
UCLA (24-3) (11-3) RPI 20 SoS 89
Vital signs: 10-2 R/N, non-con
SoS 246, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 10-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Kentucky,
Oregon, USC
Bad losses: @USC is the worst
That damned non-con SoS. They
beat Kentucky and Michigan, but the cupcakes caught up with them. Playing the other top Pac-12 teams to par so
far, and avoiding bad losses would typically mean a 2 seed, but that SoS number
will literally cost them seed lines in March.
Bubble
USC (21-6) (8-6) RPI 32 SoS 74
Vital signs: 9-3 R/N, non-con
SoS 168, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: SMU, UCLA, and
it gets light from there
Bad losses: @Utah, Cal?
No real harmful losses, and they’ve won enough home games against good
competition. Competent enough, with one
metric (road wins) balancing out another (just an okay SoS). This profile could miss, but mostly because
of the threat of horrible losses are still out there. All they need to do is hold.
California (18-8) (9-5) RPI 39 SoS 43
Vital signs: 4-6 R/N, non-con
SoS 77, 1-6 vs. Top 50, 4-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @USC, Utah? Yeesh
Bad losses: @Stanford perhaps,
N-SDSU
Here’s a case where Cal lost 7 of their 8 toughest games on the
schedule, and only one more outside of that.
They haven’t exactly proven they can beat tourney teams, and all that
remains is @Oregon on that front. Still,
if they hold serve in other games, I think the other metrics can just hang
on. I’m not thrilled by this resume,
though.
Off the board:
Utah (15-10) (8-7) RPI 96 SoS 100 – it’s tough to have only 1 Top 100
win at this stage in the season
AAC
Lockbox
Cincinnati (24-3) (13-1) RPI 14 SoS 80
Vital signs: 8-3 R/N, non-con
SoS 40, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 5-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Iowa St, Xavier,
SMU
Bad losses: N-URI
They’ll probably be fine even if they lose their next 5 games. Enough wins against tournament teams (just
barely, though). And complete bad loss
avoidance, which increases cushion. It’s
now about seeding, and to be honest, it’ll be more about what the teams around
them do than what Cincy does. Their
resume is more or less fully formed
Bubble
SMU (24-4) (14-1) RPI 18 SoS 85
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 113, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Cincy, TCU? N-Pitt?
Bad losses: @Boise is the only
marginal one
I suppose they could lose 4 to end the year and miss, so no lockbox
yet. The profile is good, but not good
enough to withstand that kind of collapse.
That win over Cincy was so important just to put a win over a sure
tourney team into the ledger.
Off the board:
Houston (18-8) (9-5) RPI 62 SoS 88 – no wins over probably tournament
teams, and they’re out of chances against SMU and Cincy. And a couple bad, bad losses. Nothing in the resume is strong enough to
mask those things
A-10
Bubble
VCU (22-5) (12-2) RPI 24 SoS 69
Vital signs: 9-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 74, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 8-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Dayton, MTSU
Bad losses: I suppose
N-Illinois, @Fordham definitely
8 Top 100 wins…4 Top 95 wins.
Watch out for stats that are deceiving.
A metric that would suggest a lock is really deceiving. Still, they’re in pretty good shape, but two
roadies at URI and Dayton loom, and those can be easily lost.
Dayton (20-5) (12-2) RPI 27 SoS 70
Vital signs: 8-4 R/N, non-con
SoS 36, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 11-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: footage not
found
Bad losses: @UMass, N-Nebraska
Hmm. Did you know they don’t
have a win over a tourney team right now?
11 Top 100 wins! And 0 against
tourney teams! How in the hell is that
possible! Beat UNM, Winthrop, ETSU,
Bama, Vandy…URI, a few other A-10 teams…pretty amazing feat. Non-con SoS is great, they did a great
scheduling job as you can see by the 12 Top 100 opponents. I’d really like them to beat VCU at home just
to make sure they’re in.
Rhode Island (17-9) (9-5) RPI 51 SoS 60
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con
SoS 24, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 3-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Cincy, and
we’re done
Bad losses: Fordham, LaSalle?
We’ll keep them on the board with a game against VCU coming. A second good win would help, and several
losses on the road were reasonable (against 51-100 competition). Still a pretty big stretch, though
Everyone else:
Lockbox
Gonzaga (28-0) (15-0 WCC) RPI 6 SoS 79
Vital signs: 13-0 R/N, non-con
SoS 48, 7-0 vs. Top 50, 11-0 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Florida,
N-Iowa St, N-Arizona, swept St Mary’s
Bad losses: nah
I’m okay with the argument to put them #1 overall. Only 2 of the Top 50 wins are deceiving
(Akron, Tennessee). 5 legit Top 50 wins
Bubble
Nevada (21-6) (10-4 Mountain West) RPI 42 SoS 126
Vital signs: 10-5 R/N, non-con
SoS 163, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Boise, swept
New Mexico?
Bad losses: @Utah St, @Fresno?
Courtesy listing. Top 100 record
isn’t nothing to sneeze at, but there’s a lot of MWC teams mixed in there, and
very little heft OOC. Won at Washington
in a game that should’ve meant more.
Such is life for a non-power conference school.
St Mary’s (24-3) (14-2 WCC) RPI 16 SoS 74
Vital signs: 10-1 R/N, non-con
SoS 67, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Dayton, Nevada
Bad losses: UTA at home?
I do wish there was just a couple more quality wins to make this
easier. 4 of the 7 Top 100 wins are
sweeps of BYU and San Fran. And the
non-con SoS feels a bit deceiving. But
even if they lose 3 in a row to finish the year, it’s a stretch to call them
out, IMO. No bad losses yet means they
have that mulligan still to burn
Illinois St (22-5) (15-1 MVC) RPI 33 SoS 138
Vital signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con
SoS 116, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 2-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Wichita St, New
Mexico?
Bad losses: N-San Fran, @Tulsa, @Murray St
Bad losses: N-San Fran, @Tulsa, @Murray St
This is a very marginal listing.
The road/neutral record isn’t strong enough for a middie, the SoS isn’t
good enough, not enough quality wins, too many marginal losses. Can’t do it
Wichita St (24-4) (15-1 MVC) RPI 41 SoS 155
Vital signs: 10-3 R/N, non-con
SoS 182, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Illinois St,
@Colorado St, and we’re done here
Bad losses: Okie State is the
worst
How much do you like advanced metrics?
If you don’t, they’re out. If you
do, they’re in. It’s that simple,
really. I don’t know what to do with
them, myself. Nothing in the overall
resume says they deserve an at-large bid, with perhaps an exception for the
road/neutral record
Middle Tennessee (23-4) (14-1 CUSA) RPI 31 SoS 124
Vital signs: 13-2 R/N, non-con
SoS 16, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 4-1 vs. Top 100S
Signature wins: Vandy, @Belmont? N-UNCW?
Signature wins: Vandy, @Belmont? N-UNCW?
Bad losses: Tennessee St at
home, @UTEP is hideous
They somehow managed to put together the #16 non-con SoS by playing
exactly one team with reasonable at-large chances (VCU). Pretty fluky.
However, they did beat some other competent teams, and have powerful
computer numbers, so we’ll look at them for now. 1 CUSA loss is pretty much all they can
afford; I just wish they used it on someone better than UTEP.
Off the board:
Boise St (16-8) (10-4 Mountain West) RPI 62 SoS 96 – there’s actually a
win vs. SMU in here that could be handy…except they lost to Mississippi St and
Evansville. They could’ve made it up
with a strong MWC season, but got swept by New Mexico. Flip those two and we’d be cooking
UNC-Wilmington (22-5) (13-3 Colonial) RPI 41 SoS 153 – shiny RPI, but
@Charleston is the signature win, so I just can’t defend it. SoS is a bit of a mirage, to be honest
Charleston (20-8) (12-4 Colonial) RPI 67 SoS 116 - @UNCW is the
signature win, so they’re a bit of a NIT bubble team if it comes to it
Texas-Arlington (18-6) (10-3 Sun Belt) RPI 36 SoS 138 – they do have a
win at St Mary’s in their pocket, but 3 Fun Belt losses kill. Now, the top of the league is decent…but the
losses aren’t to any of the top teams.
They’re to minnows. That’s why
they’re dead on the bubble, which is a shame
Arkansas St (18-8) (10-4 Sun Belt) RPI 79 SoS 194 – beat G’town on a
neutral, alas it doesn’t carry enough weight.
NIT bubble team, probably trending out
Akron (21-5) (12-2 MAC) RPI 48 SoS 167 – How to become a Top 50 RPI
team without a Top 100 win: the Akron
story
Monmouth (23-5) (15-2 MAAC) RPI 47 SoS 190 – Win at Memphis is rotting
away. Nowhere near the heft in their
resume that they had last year
Valparaiso (21-6) (12-3 Horizon) RPI 72 SoS 191 – Had wins against
Bama, BYU, and URI. Watched those wins
become nothing and then lost a couple marginal games. Out
New Mexico St (20-4) (9-2 WAC) RPI 56 SoS 235 – Don’t be fooled by the
RPI and record, the resume doesn’t hold up
Vermont (23-5) (14-0 A-East) RPI 51 SoS 197 – Again, don’t be fooled by
the RPI and record. 0 Top 100 wins
Belmont (20-5) (14-1 OVC) RPI 64 SoS 212 – Broken record
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