2/20 Analysis

Let's discuss some of the flashpoints in the S-Curve.

1) the final #1 seed
Enjoy it while lasts Baylor.  Nearly pulled the trigger with them and UNC.  And frankly Louisville can make the same argument that UNC does.  Alas...UNC and Louisville play Wednesday.  The winner of that game adds a signature win and will leapfrog Baylor no matter what.  We'll have a new team on the top line Thursday.

2) The #7 overall team
Duke is coming.  Oregon and Arizona hold for now, but Duke is coming.  Arizona will have a chance to leap Oregon by beating UCLA; Duke the next week has FSU and UNC in their bid to leap both.  And behind them, the winner of Kentucky/Florida this week is also in play for a 2 seed.  5 teams for 2 spots on the 2 line, and I don't think Oregon can do anything to protect themselves.

3) The last protected seeds
Butler hangs on to #15 overall based on their quality wins. Creighton sneaks back into the top 4 lines, just ahead of Purdue and fading Virginia.  The big key is quality wins.  Creighton can show more than the B1G teams.  There's not a lot of chances, outside of the ACC teams, of getting signature wins to leap Butler and Creighton, so the teams that wind up on the 4 line will most likely be the one that avoids bad losses going forward.  This dynamic also gives the likes of WVU and UCLA some protection from falling out of the top 16.