Sunday, February 12, 2017

2/13 NIT/CIT projections

Fun fact:  did you know traffic increases to this blog when I do CIT projections?

So let's project!

The 1 line:  Indiana (15-11), Seton Hall (15-9), Marquette (15-10), Clemson (13-11)
The 2 line:  Houston (18-7), Tennessee (13-11), Rhode Island (16-8), Ohio St (15-11)
The 3 line:  Nevada (19-6), Alabama (14-10), Utah (15-8), Providence (15-11)
The 4 line:  Auburn (15-9), Georgetown (14-12), Texas-Arlington (16-6), New Mexico St (19-4)
The 5 line:  Pittsburgh (14-11), Texas Tech (16-9), Ole Miss (15-10), Georgia (13-11)
The 6 line:  Penn St (14-12), Memphis (18-8), Charleston (18-8), Illinois (13-12)
The 7 line:  Arkansas St (17-7), Richmond (15-9), North Carolina St (14-12), Iowa (14-12)
The 8 line:  New Mexico (15-10), Mississippi St (14-10), Texas A&M (13-11), Colorado (14-11)

Note that the last 10 or so teams usually get chopped off by the presence of autobids.  I defaulted to power conference teams mostly for those spots.  No one will miss them.

Of note, the Mountain West feels likely to get an at-large bid in some form, and so does the Fun Belt.  They're having a good RPI year and it seems the chances of Arky State or UTA sneaking into this field via at-large if needed is good.  The Colonial should also have a fair shot at an at-large bid with Charleston.  New Mexico St is a unique case, they'd actually need an at-large bid here

Other than what I mentioned above, the NIT field is a power conference Field of Sadness.  Did you know there's 7 SEC teams in this field?


Let's project a CIT field.  I won't do Vegas 16 or CBI, I'm only somewhat insane.  What is the purpose of these projections?

I have no idea what teams would or wouldn't reject a CIT bid.  So for these, I'm not going to try and predict that.  My goal is to highlight the types of teams that are in line for a CIT bid right now.  Given many teams don't play this tournament, most of the teams listed below are fairly safe bets.  If your team isn't listed...that's ok, those teams can still easily make it.  The teams in here help highlight the following things:
1) It's going to be really, really tough for any of these teams to make the NIT (without the autobid, of course)
2) These teams have one of a couple things working in its favor:  great conference record, great overall record, strong SoS/RPI numbers.  Something to stand out from other teams
3) The quality of teams in these projections are down from previous years.  Mid-majors aren't producing great teams anymore, just good ones.

Iona (17-9) at Temple (14-12)
Stony Brook (15-10) at St Bonaventure (15-9)
Yale (13-7) at LaSalle (13-10)
Oakland (17-7) at Central Michigan (14-9)

William & Mary (12-11) at Old Dominion (15-10)
Navy (14-11) at Towson (16-10)
Ohio (14-8) at George Mason (16-8)
UNC-Greensboro (15-8) at East Tennessee St (18-6)

Lipscomb (14-11) at Winthrop (17-6)
Tennessee-Martin (16-10) at Chattanooga (16-7)
Central Florida (15-10) at Georgia St (14-8)
Sam Houston St (14-8) at Louisiana Tech (16-8)

San Francisco (17-9) at Colorado St (15-9)
Tulsa (12-12) at BYU (18-9)
North Dakota (12-8) at South Dakota (16-10)
UC-Irvine (13-12) at San Diego St (13-10)

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