Friday, February 17, 2017

2/17 S-CURVE

I marked the exact moment I lost faith in the teams I were seeding.  It was right at the last 6 seed.  Everyone on the 7-10 lines are 2 lines higher than they deserve to be.

The 1 line:  Villanova (25-2), Kansas (23-3), Gonzaga (27-0), Baylor (21-4)
The 2 line:  North Carolina (21-5), Louisville (21-5), Florida St (21-5), Oregon (22-4)
The 3 line:  Arizona (24-3), Florida (21-5), Kentucky (21-5), Duke (21-5)
The 4 line:  UCLA (23-3), West Virginia (20-6), Butler (20-6), Purdue (21-5)
The 5 line:  Virginia (18-7), Notre Dame (20-7), Cincinnati (23-3), Creighton (20-5)
The 6 line:  Maryland (21-4), Wisconsin (21-5), SMU (23-4), St Mary's (23-3)
The 7 line:  Xavier (18-8), Northwestern (19-7), USC (21-5), South Carolina (19-6)
The 8 line:  Virginia Tech (18-7), Dayton (19-5), Minnesota (19-7), Miami (17-8)
The 9 line:  Iowa St (16-9), VCU (21-5), California (18-7), Oklahoma St (16-9)
The 10 line:  Middle Tennessee (22-4), Michigan (16-9), Michigan St (16-10), Arkansas (19-7)
The 11 line:  Syracuse (16-11), TCU (16-9), Wichita St (23-4), Seton Hall (16-9), Kansas St (16-10), Clemson (14-11)
The 12 line:  Illinois St (21-5), UNC-Wilmington (21-5), Colorado St (16-9), Texas-Arlington (17-6)
The 13 line:  Akron (21-4), Monmouth (23-5), Valparaiso (20-5), Vermont (23-5)
The 14 line:  Princeton (14-6), Belmont (19-5), Furman (18-8), UNC-Asheville (19-7)
The 15 line:  Cal St-Bakersfield (15-7), North Dakota St (15-9), Bucknell (20-8), FGCU (18-7)
The 16 line:  Texas Southern (14-11), North Carolina Central (16-6), New Orleans (12-9), Weber St (14-8), Mount St Mary's (14-14), UC-Davis (14-10)

Next 4 in:
Michigan St
Arkansas
Syracuse
TCU

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Seton Hall
Kansas St
Clemson

Last 4 out:
Georgia Tech (14-11)
Wake Forest (15-11)
Marquette (15-10)
Indiana (15-12)

Next 4 out:
Nevada (20-6)
Providence (16-11)
Houston (18-7)
Tennessee (13-12)

NIT lines:
The 3 line:  Pittsburgh (14-12), Alabama (15-10), Ohio St (15-12), Utah (15-9)
The 4 line:  Rhode Island (16-9), Georgetown (14-12), Boise St (15-8), Georgia (14-11)
The 5 line:  New Mexico St (19-4), Ole Miss (16-10), Texas Tech (17-9), Auburn (16-10)
The 6 line:  Illinois (13-12), BYU (19-9), Charleston (19-8), Arkansas St (17-8)
The 7 line:  Vanderbilt (13-13), Richmond (15-10), Memphis (18-9), New Mexico (16-10)
The 8 line:  Penn St (14-13), St Bonaventure (16-9), San Diego St (14-10), Chattanooga (17-7)

Top 16 Breakdown:

EAST 34
1) Villanova @Buffalo
2) Louisville @Indianapolis
3) Kentucky @Indianapolis
4) Purdue @Milwaukee

SOUTH 32
1) Baylor @Tulsa
2) North Carolina @Greenville
3) Florida @Orlando
4) UCLA @Sacramento

WEST 37
1) Gonzaga @Salt Lake City
2) Oregon @Sacramento
3) Duke @Greenville
4) West Virginia @Buffalo

MIDWEST 33
1) Kansas @Tulsa
2) Florida St @Orlando
3) Arizona @Salt Lake City
4) Butler @Milwaukee

The West is out of whack a bit, but the only way to fix that is to move both Florida St and Oregon across the country.  And there's a nasty chain reaction to that, so I think the committee would swallow this bracket instead.

2 comments:

HenryMuto said...

No on Clemson they are 4-9 in the ACC no team that is 5 games under .500 in their conf should get a bid.

HenryMuto said...

Palm has Rhode Island in......There is a reason Palm is ranked 61st out of 88 in the matrix in the last 5 years and he has only outscored me once in the 11 years since the bracket matrix started in 2006.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-fsu-falls-a-line-baylor-still-1-seed-rhode-island-last-team-in/