Saturday, March 12, 2016

Idle bracket thoughts

1) If UNC wins tonight, they'll get a 1 seed despite their profile not warranting one.  Previous committee history shows the eye test will matter more in those types of situations.

2) The first pressure point in the bracket is the final 3 seed.  The top 11 are pretty secure, Indiana isn't.  However, I'm not sure I can put Kentucky up there.  Maybe Maryland or Purdue if they win tomorrow...except for the fact that in past years, the committee has been known to ignore the Big 10 championship game.  Of course that also impacts Michigan St, who I think needs to win to keep their 1 seed.

3) I think I could miss the most around the 4-6 lines.  The teams are mostly interchangable.  I split the difference with the Big 12 teams in this range but both could easily be 4 seeds.  This is probably the area I need to research the hardest in the next 24 hours.

4) South Carolina is going to miss.  I'm feeling more strongly about it.

5) The immediate bubble, to me:

Last 3 in:  VCU, Vandy, Michigan
Last 5 out:  South Carolina, Syracuse, St Mary's, Valpo. Hofstra

Teams I think are safe, but it's not 100%:  Monmouth, Pitt, Oregon St, St Bonaventure, Cincy

More teams I'm leaving on the bubble compared to previous years, but the more I look at it, the more different combinations of teams you can argue based on what you think the committee will emphasize this year.  The one thing I am sure of is the cutoff after Hofstra.  Tulsa, Florida, GW, et al just don't have it.


HenryMuto said...

You are the highest on Monmouth that I have seen most people have them out (like 60%) and the other ones that have them in mostly have them in the First Four. I think they can make it but not sure if they avoid the First Four. I am hoping Memphis/Tulane winner loses to UCONN just to make sure.

South Carolina is in about 70% of brackets I don't know if they will make it or not they really could not afford that loss but it's close. Not sure what I am doing with them.

Andrew said...

I may get burned on South Carolina, but that non-con SoS. I've learned from previous years. I'm not repeating mistakes.

I don't know why more people aren't referencing 17-6 road/neutral for Monmouth. That's a big deal!