I'm working on a post where I'm going to propose some changes to the RPI, in order to come up with a metric that can be used to sort teams that isn't mathematically flawed the way RPI is. But for now, I wanted to hit a few topics that, by themselves, don't warrant full blog posts. But I want to get them out for public consumption.
1) Three times in 11 years, a bubble team makes the final four (Mason, VCU, Syracuse). This just proves that bubble talk is actually important. It actually matters who gets in and who gets out. Syracuse was a true bubble team this year (although the media narrative that they should've been out is a bit too revisionist - they had a reasonable case). Do we know that Valpo or SDSU can't make that type of run, especially with that region being cleaned out in the bottom half? This is why bubble discussion matters, because there are several teams that didn't make the tourney that could've made the run Syracuse made.
2) This is going to sound blasphemous and counter to everything I stand for...but I think the NIT is going to have to get rid of autobids (or increase their field). There's good teams being left out of the NIT, and there's a big imbalance between the 8 line and the 6 line in that tournament. Now that the CIT is established, those low-level conference champs do have another home, and actually have a chance to play for several games instead of just 1, maybe 2. It runs counter to my general philosophy, but I think this is best for everyone.
3) Vegas should keep their tourney at 8 going forward, and frankly I think all those teams should migrate back to the CIT anyways. If anything, the CIT should adopt the Vegas 8. Have 32 teams play down to 8 the first weekend, then send those 8 to Vegas. Something like that would work best for the low-level tourneys.
4) It's important to seed the bottom four lines correctly. This is what happens when you match a 1 seed (Michigan St) with a 14 seed (MTSU), only you call it a 2-15.
5) I know you shouldn't use tournament results to justify selection/seeding, but you can't tell me that mass ejection by the Pac-12 on the first weekend had nothing to do with their overvaluing. More about this in the RPI post coming in the next couple of weeks.
Monday, March 28, 2016
Friday, March 18, 2016
Bracketing fixes
Ok, we have the committee seed list 1-68. How should the tournament have been bracketed? Guess what: the committee messed a couple things up. Here's what I got when I applied their principles to their S-Curve.
*note: I didn't have immediate access to previous tourney matchups, to see if that blocked anything
SOUTH 33
@Des Moines
1) Kansas vs. 16) Austin Peay
8) Colorado vs. 9) Butler
@Spokane
4) California vs. 13) Hawaii
5) Maryland vs. 12) South Dakota St
@Providence
3) Miami vs. 14) Buffalo
6) Arizona vs. 11) Vanderbilt/Tulsa
@St Louis
2) Xavier vs. 15) Middle Tennessee
7) Wisconsin vs. 10) Syracuse
WEST 35
@Spokane
1) Oregon vs. 16) Southern/Holy Cross
8) Texas Tech vs. 9) UConn
@Providence
4) Duke vs. 13) UNC-Wilmington
5) Baylor vs. 12) Yale
@Oklahoma City
3) Texas A&M vs. 14) Green Bay
6) Texas vs. 11) Northern Iowa
@Oklahoma City
2) Oklahoma vs. 15) Cal St-Bakersfield
7) Oregon St vs. 10) VCU
MIDWEST 35
@Raleigh
1) Virginia vs. 16) Hampton
8) USC vs. 9) Providence
@Denver
4) Iowa St vs. 13) Iona
5) Purdue vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock
@Denver
3) Utah vs. 14) Fresno St
6) Seton Hall vs. 11) Gonzaga
@St Louis
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Weber St
7) Dayton vs. 10) Temple
EAST 33
@Raleigh
1) North Carolina vs. 16) FGCU/Fairleigh Dickinson
8) St Joseph's vs. 9) Cincinnati
@Des Moines
4) Kentucky vs. 13) Stony Brook
5) Indiana vs. 12) Chattanooga
@Brooklyn
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Stephen F Austin
6) Notre Dame vs. 11) Michigan/Wichita St
@Brooklyn
2) Villanova vs. 15) UNC-Asheville
7) Iowa vs. 10) Pittsburgh
The 1 line: no changes
The 2 line: Villanova and Xavier should switch. Not only does it reward Nova and keep them home, it also gives Xavier a better site to my eyes as well. Instead of giving geographical advantages to the 7th and 8th teams, they choose to save the teams ranked above them. I'm not sure that's how it's supposed to work.
The 3 line: I agree. I think OKC is a better geographical site for Miami, barely. However, the chain reaction would've sent A&M away from OKC, and the difference between OKC and Provi for Miami is negligible, so it's a good switch to make.
The 4 line: You could make an argument that Iowa St (Denver) and Kentucky (Des Moines) should switch regional sites. Obviously ISU wants Des Moines, and Kentucky can't travel by car/bus either way. It wouldn't be the worst change in the world to make.
The 5 line: On first glance, I've got Maryland and Baylor flipping spots. Obviously Maryland being ranked higher, they should stay east while Baylor goes to Spokane. But the devil is in the details. Baylor and Kansas played 3 times this year; therefore they can't be in the top half of the South bracket with Kansas. This costs Maryland a cross-country trip. Tough break.
The 6 line: Here's a place where I think the committee could have gotten creative if it wanted to. Currently, they have Arizona making a cross-country trip and Texas lining up against A&M. If you send Texas to Denver instead, you can fit Arizona into OKC. More fair to Arizona, less fair to Texas. But, as I was working up this plan, Seton Hall gummed the whole thing up. Seton Hall as a 6 played Xavier and Villanova three times each this year, locking them out of their two regionals. Therefore, SHU has to play in either Denver or OKC, which messes up the whole Arizona/Texas plan. Therefore, I think the committee got the 6 line right. Arizona ends up with the short straw in this scenario.
The 7 line: no changes
The 8 line: Here's one of the stupider things the committee did. Texas Tech has two options: Raleigh and Spokane. Both aren't great. They're about equal. However, if you send TTU to Raleigh, then you eventually have to send St Joe's to Spokane. That's what this committee did. Why not send TTU to Spokane and save St Joe's a couple thousand miles or so? That's a sloppy mistake by the committee. By the way, this also changes USC's fate just a bit, as they're in UVa's path instead of UNC's.
The 9 line: I'm not sure anyone's in the spot they're supposed to be. Providence as the highest on the 9 line should be in UVA's path, not UNCs. A modest mistake here. Butler is next and should get Des Moines. UConn as the lowest should be the one of the four to bite the bullet and go to Spokane. The committee made a pure mess of the 9 line, and I'm not sure why. Why is Butler taking the trip to Spokane? The only logic I see is UConn fans traveling better and the NCAA doing a blatant favor, but it's not like UConn is staying close to home - they're going to Des Moines. This is weird.
The 10 line: Shouldn't Pitt be in Brooklyn? I know the committee put Temple there, and they're closer. But Pitt is higher ranked and close enough to Brooklyn, compared to St Louis, to make it a real difference. This change causes a chain reaction that changes 3 of the 4 7-10 matchups.
The 11 line: The committee chose the right two sites to send PIG winners to. The actual PIG matchups kinda feel arbitrary to me. I'd have the best play the worst among the four, as there are no in-bracket conflicts that get in the way. Wichita gets a minor, minor shaft by having to play Vandy instead of Michigan.
The 12 line: no changes
The 13 line: no changes
The 14 line: no changes
The 15 line: Middle Tennessee is the best 15 seed. If they're going to play in St Louis (and they should), it should be against the worst 2, Xavier, not the best 2, Michigan St. Middle Tennessee got a screw job here. Everything else lines up fine.
The 16 line: It sucks sending a winner from Dayton to Spokane, but the only alternative is moving the winner to the 15 line instead. Nope.
*note: I didn't have immediate access to previous tourney matchups, to see if that blocked anything
SOUTH 33
@Des Moines
1) Kansas vs. 16) Austin Peay
8) Colorado vs. 9) Butler
@Spokane
4) California vs. 13) Hawaii
5) Maryland vs. 12) South Dakota St
@Providence
3) Miami vs. 14) Buffalo
6) Arizona vs. 11) Vanderbilt/Tulsa
@St Louis
2) Xavier vs. 15) Middle Tennessee
7) Wisconsin vs. 10) Syracuse
WEST 35
@Spokane
1) Oregon vs. 16) Southern/Holy Cross
8) Texas Tech vs. 9) UConn
@Providence
4) Duke vs. 13) UNC-Wilmington
5) Baylor vs. 12) Yale
@Oklahoma City
3) Texas A&M vs. 14) Green Bay
6) Texas vs. 11) Northern Iowa
@Oklahoma City
2) Oklahoma vs. 15) Cal St-Bakersfield
7) Oregon St vs. 10) VCU
MIDWEST 35
@Raleigh
1) Virginia vs. 16) Hampton
8) USC vs. 9) Providence
@Denver
4) Iowa St vs. 13) Iona
5) Purdue vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock
@Denver
3) Utah vs. 14) Fresno St
6) Seton Hall vs. 11) Gonzaga
@St Louis
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Weber St
7) Dayton vs. 10) Temple
EAST 33
@Raleigh
1) North Carolina vs. 16) FGCU/Fairleigh Dickinson
8) St Joseph's vs. 9) Cincinnati
@Des Moines
4) Kentucky vs. 13) Stony Brook
5) Indiana vs. 12) Chattanooga
@Brooklyn
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Stephen F Austin
6) Notre Dame vs. 11) Michigan/Wichita St
@Brooklyn
2) Villanova vs. 15) UNC-Asheville
7) Iowa vs. 10) Pittsburgh
The 1 line: no changes
The 2 line: Villanova and Xavier should switch. Not only does it reward Nova and keep them home, it also gives Xavier a better site to my eyes as well. Instead of giving geographical advantages to the 7th and 8th teams, they choose to save the teams ranked above them. I'm not sure that's how it's supposed to work.
The 3 line: I agree. I think OKC is a better geographical site for Miami, barely. However, the chain reaction would've sent A&M away from OKC, and the difference between OKC and Provi for Miami is negligible, so it's a good switch to make.
The 4 line: You could make an argument that Iowa St (Denver) and Kentucky (Des Moines) should switch regional sites. Obviously ISU wants Des Moines, and Kentucky can't travel by car/bus either way. It wouldn't be the worst change in the world to make.
The 5 line: On first glance, I've got Maryland and Baylor flipping spots. Obviously Maryland being ranked higher, they should stay east while Baylor goes to Spokane. But the devil is in the details. Baylor and Kansas played 3 times this year; therefore they can't be in the top half of the South bracket with Kansas. This costs Maryland a cross-country trip. Tough break.
The 6 line: Here's a place where I think the committee could have gotten creative if it wanted to. Currently, they have Arizona making a cross-country trip and Texas lining up against A&M. If you send Texas to Denver instead, you can fit Arizona into OKC. More fair to Arizona, less fair to Texas. But, as I was working up this plan, Seton Hall gummed the whole thing up. Seton Hall as a 6 played Xavier and Villanova three times each this year, locking them out of their two regionals. Therefore, SHU has to play in either Denver or OKC, which messes up the whole Arizona/Texas plan. Therefore, I think the committee got the 6 line right. Arizona ends up with the short straw in this scenario.
The 7 line: no changes
The 8 line: Here's one of the stupider things the committee did. Texas Tech has two options: Raleigh and Spokane. Both aren't great. They're about equal. However, if you send TTU to Raleigh, then you eventually have to send St Joe's to Spokane. That's what this committee did. Why not send TTU to Spokane and save St Joe's a couple thousand miles or so? That's a sloppy mistake by the committee. By the way, this also changes USC's fate just a bit, as they're in UVa's path instead of UNC's.
The 9 line: I'm not sure anyone's in the spot they're supposed to be. Providence as the highest on the 9 line should be in UVA's path, not UNCs. A modest mistake here. Butler is next and should get Des Moines. UConn as the lowest should be the one of the four to bite the bullet and go to Spokane. The committee made a pure mess of the 9 line, and I'm not sure why. Why is Butler taking the trip to Spokane? The only logic I see is UConn fans traveling better and the NCAA doing a blatant favor, but it's not like UConn is staying close to home - they're going to Des Moines. This is weird.
The 10 line: Shouldn't Pitt be in Brooklyn? I know the committee put Temple there, and they're closer. But Pitt is higher ranked and close enough to Brooklyn, compared to St Louis, to make it a real difference. This change causes a chain reaction that changes 3 of the 4 7-10 matchups.
The 11 line: The committee chose the right two sites to send PIG winners to. The actual PIG matchups kinda feel arbitrary to me. I'd have the best play the worst among the four, as there are no in-bracket conflicts that get in the way. Wichita gets a minor, minor shaft by having to play Vandy instead of Michigan.
The 12 line: no changes
The 13 line: no changes
The 14 line: no changes
The 15 line: Middle Tennessee is the best 15 seed. If they're going to play in St Louis (and they should), it should be against the worst 2, Xavier, not the best 2, Michigan St. Middle Tennessee got a screw job here. Everything else lines up fine.
The 16 line: It sucks sending a winner from Dayton to Spokane, but the only alternative is moving the winner to the 15 line instead. Nope.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Performance
I don't really feel like doing this, but whatever:
66 of 68 teams correct
34 seeded correctly
59 seeded within one line
2.56 average S-Curve miss
These are all marginal numbers. 66 and 34 seem to be above average with respect to everyone else; 59 isn't. 2.56 is also below the 2.25 target, but I'm far too lazy to calculate it for every other person out there.
7 teams I missed by more than 1 seed line:
Texas A&M (NCAA 3, Bracketball 5)
California (NCAA 4, Bracketball 6)
Oregon St (NCAA 7, Bracketball 9)
USC (NCAA 8, Bracketball 10)
Providence (NCAA 9, Bracketball 7)
Wichita St (NCAA 11, Bracketball 9)
Gonzaga (NCAA 11, Bracketball 9)
The committee went away from trends on the Gonzaga thing - usually conference champs get a seed bump in the process. That applies to Wichita too. However, on the other end, A&M got that bump. So apparently that bump now applies to majors only?
The Pac-12 I underseeded as a whole. I trusted the committee to look past the RPI gimmicks a bit; they didn't. Oregon St is definitely a flagrant rank. Did they see Cal's road/neutral record? I don't like any of the Pac-12 seeds in this tournament, period.
Providence is probably the one mistake I think I made. Too high on my end.
Other lessons:
1) Last year, I missed some 13-16 seeds when I tried to break down their resume too much. The committee used the RPI and the conference RPI, and did a poor job seeding them. So this year, I tried to mimick that strategy...and the committee went the other way. PICK A WAY OF EVALUATING MID-MAJORS AND STICK WITH IT. I'm very frustrated by some of these seeds. Green Bay clearly got a name recognition bump with the Horizon...but UNC-Wilmington didn't despite the big year from the Colonial. I give up on the 13-16 lines, there's horrible inconsistency.
2) The committee is very vulnerable to RPI manipulation. Beware the conference that plays the game well; they'll get overseeded like the Pac-12 did.
3) Contingencies are meaningless. The committee ignores Sunday results; they just do.
66 of 68 teams correct
34 seeded correctly
59 seeded within one line
2.56 average S-Curve miss
These are all marginal numbers. 66 and 34 seem to be above average with respect to everyone else; 59 isn't. 2.56 is also below the 2.25 target, but I'm far too lazy to calculate it for every other person out there.
7 teams I missed by more than 1 seed line:
Texas A&M (NCAA 3, Bracketball 5)
California (NCAA 4, Bracketball 6)
Oregon St (NCAA 7, Bracketball 9)
USC (NCAA 8, Bracketball 10)
Providence (NCAA 9, Bracketball 7)
Wichita St (NCAA 11, Bracketball 9)
Gonzaga (NCAA 11, Bracketball 9)
The committee went away from trends on the Gonzaga thing - usually conference champs get a seed bump in the process. That applies to Wichita too. However, on the other end, A&M got that bump. So apparently that bump now applies to majors only?
The Pac-12 I underseeded as a whole. I trusted the committee to look past the RPI gimmicks a bit; they didn't. Oregon St is definitely a flagrant rank. Did they see Cal's road/neutral record? I don't like any of the Pac-12 seeds in this tournament, period.
Providence is probably the one mistake I think I made. Too high on my end.
Other lessons:
1) Last year, I missed some 13-16 seeds when I tried to break down their resume too much. The committee used the RPI and the conference RPI, and did a poor job seeding them. So this year, I tried to mimick that strategy...and the committee went the other way. PICK A WAY OF EVALUATING MID-MAJORS AND STICK WITH IT. I'm very frustrated by some of these seeds. Green Bay clearly got a name recognition bump with the Horizon...but UNC-Wilmington didn't despite the big year from the Colonial. I give up on the 13-16 lines, there's horrible inconsistency.
2) The committee is very vulnerable to RPI manipulation. Beware the conference that plays the game well; they'll get overseeded like the Pac-12 did.
3) Contingencies are meaningless. The committee ignores Sunday results; they just do.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Vegas 16/CBI/CIT fields
This whole thing ended up being an adventure, but it looks like we finally have fields for all 3 of these shindigs.
Vegas 16:
Tennessee Tech vs. Old Dominion
UC-Santa Barbara vs. Northern Illinois
Oakland vs. Towson
Louisiana Tech vs. East Tennessee St
So, the Vegas 16 has 8. HA. Turns out all those high-majors they wanted...everyone turned them down. Everyone. I had speculated that this was the most likely tournament to attract the high-majors, and no one bit. They had to go to 8 teams because they couldn't find more. It's pretty damning for the future of this tournament, which I don't think is viable without those big boys. Well, it could be viable if the CBI/CIT didn't exist, perhaps. But otherwise, this might be a one-and-done. They failed to get the types of teams they wanted.
As for the actual 8 teams? Deserving. It's not a bad field. All 8 are certainly deserving of the postseason from a profile perspective.
CIT:
Jackson St vs. Sam Houston St
South Carolina St vs. Grand Canyon
Mercer vs. Coastal Carolina
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Furman
Ball St vs. Tennessee Tech
UT-Arlington vs. Savannah St
Boston vs. Fordham
Norfolk St vs. Columbia
New Hampshire vs. Fairfield
Tennesse-Martin vs. Central Michigan
Army vs. NJIT
UC-Irvine vs. North Dakota
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Now, if you know how to add...you can count to 26 teams. Not 32. The CIT could not fill a full field, and they don't need to look any further to Vegas, who siphoned off 8 teams who otherwise would've fit the CIT profile. I would have thought, for all the world, that it would be the CBI that would suffer.
Since they didn't fill the full field, I can't be critical of any selection. Army and NoDak, and maybe one or two of the HBCUs would've been marginal postseason picks in a normal year, but I can't criticize their inclusion in a year with only 26 teams.
CBI:
Morehead St vs. Siena
Omaha vs. Duquesne
Western Carolina vs. Vermont
Albany vs. Ohio
Houston Baptist vs. UNC-Greensboro
Montana vs. Nevada
Pepperdine vs. Eastern Washington
Idaho vs. Seattle
Naturally, the CBI didn't get hurt while the other two got hurt. I had predicted the exact opposite. I really do wonder why teams preferred the CBI over the CIT. Maybe these teams were expecting a few upper-majors to play. Of course, none of them showed up.
Now, here, there's some questionable selections. Seattle is 12-16 (7-7 WAC) with a RPI of 287. Greensboro is 11-18 (10-8 SoCon) with a RPI of 237. Western Carolina is 13-17 (10-8 SoCon), albeit with a tolerable RPI. Duquesne is under .500 against D-1 competition. There are some flagrant selections here. Absolutely flagrant.
As it turns out, if you remove those 4 teams, plus 4 out of the back end of the CIT, and insert the Vegas 8....you have two pretty decent postseasons. Instead, we have 3 marginal tournaments.
The lessons:
1) The majors have checked out. No one simply wants to play 'em. The Big 8 conferences don't, with the lone exceptions of Duquesne/Fordham, who don't get many chances. The Mountain West had an avalanche of available teams, yet only Nevada accepted (and Nevada is on the rise and hasn't been a postseason team in awhile). The MVC is skipping them all. Seems like those 10 conferences, in general, are taking a collective stand. That can be a problem.
2) I think the CIT may need either the Vegas to die, or to pare down to 16. In the beginning, it was a great way for teams to finally make the postseason, as many of the small-majors had just their conference tournament every year as an option otherwise. However, a few years in, with so many teams finally getting their feet wet, it's no longer a novelty. Sure, there'll always be a few teams who've never played the postseason, or haven't played in awhile, but that list of candidates is slowly fading away as, year after year, a few teams leap off that list. It's a simple case of attrition.
We'll see what happens going forward.
Vegas 16:
Tennessee Tech vs. Old Dominion
UC-Santa Barbara vs. Northern Illinois
Oakland vs. Towson
Louisiana Tech vs. East Tennessee St
So, the Vegas 16 has 8. HA. Turns out all those high-majors they wanted...everyone turned them down. Everyone. I had speculated that this was the most likely tournament to attract the high-majors, and no one bit. They had to go to 8 teams because they couldn't find more. It's pretty damning for the future of this tournament, which I don't think is viable without those big boys. Well, it could be viable if the CBI/CIT didn't exist, perhaps. But otherwise, this might be a one-and-done. They failed to get the types of teams they wanted.
As for the actual 8 teams? Deserving. It's not a bad field. All 8 are certainly deserving of the postseason from a profile perspective.
CIT:
Jackson St vs. Sam Houston St
South Carolina St vs. Grand Canyon
Mercer vs. Coastal Carolina
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Furman
Ball St vs. Tennessee Tech
UT-Arlington vs. Savannah St
Boston vs. Fordham
Norfolk St vs. Columbia
New Hampshire vs. Fairfield
Tennesse-Martin vs. Central Michigan
Army vs. NJIT
UC-Irvine vs. North Dakota
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Now, if you know how to add...you can count to 26 teams. Not 32. The CIT could not fill a full field, and they don't need to look any further to Vegas, who siphoned off 8 teams who otherwise would've fit the CIT profile. I would have thought, for all the world, that it would be the CBI that would suffer.
Since they didn't fill the full field, I can't be critical of any selection. Army and NoDak, and maybe one or two of the HBCUs would've been marginal postseason picks in a normal year, but I can't criticize their inclusion in a year with only 26 teams.
CBI:
Morehead St vs. Siena
Omaha vs. Duquesne
Western Carolina vs. Vermont
Albany vs. Ohio
Houston Baptist vs. UNC-Greensboro
Montana vs. Nevada
Pepperdine vs. Eastern Washington
Idaho vs. Seattle
Naturally, the CBI didn't get hurt while the other two got hurt. I had predicted the exact opposite. I really do wonder why teams preferred the CBI over the CIT. Maybe these teams were expecting a few upper-majors to play. Of course, none of them showed up.
Now, here, there's some questionable selections. Seattle is 12-16 (7-7 WAC) with a RPI of 287. Greensboro is 11-18 (10-8 SoCon) with a RPI of 237. Western Carolina is 13-17 (10-8 SoCon), albeit with a tolerable RPI. Duquesne is under .500 against D-1 competition. There are some flagrant selections here. Absolutely flagrant.
As it turns out, if you remove those 4 teams, plus 4 out of the back end of the CIT, and insert the Vegas 8....you have two pretty decent postseasons. Instead, we have 3 marginal tournaments.
The lessons:
1) The majors have checked out. No one simply wants to play 'em. The Big 8 conferences don't, with the lone exceptions of Duquesne/Fordham, who don't get many chances. The Mountain West had an avalanche of available teams, yet only Nevada accepted (and Nevada is on the rise and hasn't been a postseason team in awhile). The MVC is skipping them all. Seems like those 10 conferences, in general, are taking a collective stand. That can be a problem.
2) I think the CIT may need either the Vegas to die, or to pare down to 16. In the beginning, it was a great way for teams to finally make the postseason, as many of the small-majors had just their conference tournament every year as an option otherwise. However, a few years in, with so many teams finally getting their feet wet, it's no longer a novelty. Sure, there'll always be a few teams who've never played the postseason, or haven't played in awhile, but that list of candidates is slowly fading away as, year after year, a few teams leap off that list. It's a simple case of attrition.
We'll see what happens going forward.
RPI
Presented, without comment:
Lowest RPIs to receive an at-large bid
72 Syracuse
63 Vanderbilt
58 Tulsa
57 Michigan
56 Butler
53 Pittsburgh
51 USC
Highest RPIs to miss the field
30 St Bonventure
34 Akron
38 St Mary's
39 Princeton
41 San Diego St
49 Valparaiso
52 Monmouth
Lowest RPIs to receive an at-large bid
72 Syracuse
63 Vanderbilt
58 Tulsa
57 Michigan
56 Butler
53 Pittsburgh
51 USC
Highest RPIs to miss the field
30 St Bonventure
34 Akron
38 St Mary's
39 Princeton
41 San Diego St
49 Valparaiso
52 Monmouth
Sunday, March 13, 2016
NIT field/analysis
I'm still gonna hit the NCAA committee hard, but tonight, let's complete the NIT analysis.
The actual field:
1) St Bonaventure vs. 8) Wagner
4) Creighton vs. 5) Alabama
3) Virginia Tech vs. 6) Princeton
2) BYU vs. 7) UAB
1) Valparaiso vs. 8) Texas Southern
4) Florida St vs. 5) Davidson
3) Georgia vs. 6) Belmont
2) St Mary's vs. 7) New Mexico St
1) Monmouth vs. 8) Bucknell
4) George Washington vs. 5) Hofstra
3) Ohio St vs. 6) Akron
2) Florida vs. 7) North Florida
1) South Carolina vs. 8) High Point
4) Georgia Tech vs. 5) Houston
3) Washington vs. 6) Long Beach St
2) San Diego St vs. 7) IPFW
My performance:
31 of 32 teams correct
14 of 28 teams seeded correctly (remember, we knew the 1 seeds going in)
21 of 28 teams within 1 seed line
Seeding kinda sucked, but at least I got 31. Missed William & Mary, in favor of Long Beach St. I'm very suspicious of their selection, given they play on the west coast, and that UC-Irvine was a legit NIT bubble team and finished higher than LBSU in its conference. I think they missed but it's not a major sin.
Princeton as a 6? Yea. I like that. Their RPI was inflated, and honestly didn't deserve a bid if you were to ignore the RPI. That 6 seed feels like a compromise. This seemed to happen to Akron too, getting docked big in seeding when you only had the RPI in your favor (Akron obviously had the autobid though).
Part of me wonders if they docked Akron a seed line to match up with OSU. Many of these first round games line up geographically, but a few don't. Further, later-round matchups are really random. Seems like after the first round, the NIT doesn't care about geography, Which is probably a fair plan.
Hofstra as a 5 was my big miss...why do they disrespect the Colonial? They're a good team. I'm not sure how they just plain old missed on this one. A few mid majors are low seeds, but Hofstra's really the only one with a major issue.
I give the NIT an A-. Hofstra feels like too big a miss, and LBSU too awkward a selection, to make it a pure A. But for the most part, sanity ruled the day.
The actual field:
1) St Bonaventure vs. 8) Wagner
4) Creighton vs. 5) Alabama
3) Virginia Tech vs. 6) Princeton
2) BYU vs. 7) UAB
1) Valparaiso vs. 8) Texas Southern
4) Florida St vs. 5) Davidson
3) Georgia vs. 6) Belmont
2) St Mary's vs. 7) New Mexico St
1) Monmouth vs. 8) Bucknell
4) George Washington vs. 5) Hofstra
3) Ohio St vs. 6) Akron
2) Florida vs. 7) North Florida
1) South Carolina vs. 8) High Point
4) Georgia Tech vs. 5) Houston
3) Washington vs. 6) Long Beach St
2) San Diego St vs. 7) IPFW
My performance:
31 of 32 teams correct
14 of 28 teams seeded correctly (remember, we knew the 1 seeds going in)
21 of 28 teams within 1 seed line
Seeding kinda sucked, but at least I got 31. Missed William & Mary, in favor of Long Beach St. I'm very suspicious of their selection, given they play on the west coast, and that UC-Irvine was a legit NIT bubble team and finished higher than LBSU in its conference. I think they missed but it's not a major sin.
Princeton as a 6? Yea. I like that. Their RPI was inflated, and honestly didn't deserve a bid if you were to ignore the RPI. That 6 seed feels like a compromise. This seemed to happen to Akron too, getting docked big in seeding when you only had the RPI in your favor (Akron obviously had the autobid though).
Part of me wonders if they docked Akron a seed line to match up with OSU. Many of these first round games line up geographically, but a few don't. Further, later-round matchups are really random. Seems like after the first round, the NIT doesn't care about geography, Which is probably a fair plan.
Hofstra as a 5 was my big miss...why do they disrespect the Colonial? They're a good team. I'm not sure how they just plain old missed on this one. A few mid majors are low seeds, but Hofstra's really the only one with a major issue.
I give the NIT an A-. Hofstra feels like too big a miss, and LBSU too awkward a selection, to make it a pure A. But for the most part, sanity ruled the day.
NCAA 1-68 seed list
This is mostly for my own reference later, but here it is in text format.
The 1 line: Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon
The 2 line: Michigan St, Oklahoma, Villanova, Xavier
The 3 line: West Virginia, Miami, Utah, Texas A&M
The 4 line: Duke, California, Kentucky, Iowa St
The 5 line: Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Baylor
The 6 line: Texas, Notre Dame, Arizona, Seton Hall
The 7 line: Wisconsin, Dayton, Iowa, Oregon St
The 8 line: Texas Tech, Colorado, USC, St Joseph's
The 9 line: Providence, Butler, Cincinnati, UConn
The 10 line: Pittsburgh, Temple, Syracuse, VCU
The 11 line: Vanderbilt, Michigan, Wichita St, Gonzaga, Tulsa, Northern Iowa
The 12 line: Chattanooga, Arkansas-Little Rock, Yale, South Dakota St
The 13 line: UNC-Wilmington, Hawaii, Stony Brook, Iona
The 14 line: Green Bay, Buffalo, Fresno St, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Middle Tennessee, Cal St-Bakersfield, UNC-Asheville, Weber St
The 16 line: Austin Peay, Hampton, FGCU, Fairleigh Dickinson, Southern, Holy Cross
The 1 line: Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon
The 2 line: Michigan St, Oklahoma, Villanova, Xavier
The 3 line: West Virginia, Miami, Utah, Texas A&M
The 4 line: Duke, California, Kentucky, Iowa St
The 5 line: Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Baylor
The 6 line: Texas, Notre Dame, Arizona, Seton Hall
The 7 line: Wisconsin, Dayton, Iowa, Oregon St
The 8 line: Texas Tech, Colorado, USC, St Joseph's
The 9 line: Providence, Butler, Cincinnati, UConn
The 10 line: Pittsburgh, Temple, Syracuse, VCU
The 11 line: Vanderbilt, Michigan, Wichita St, Gonzaga, Tulsa, Northern Iowa
The 12 line: Chattanooga, Arkansas-Little Rock, Yale, South Dakota St
The 13 line: UNC-Wilmington, Hawaii, Stony Brook, Iona
The 14 line: Green Bay, Buffalo, Fresno St, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Middle Tennessee, Cal St-Bakersfield, UNC-Asheville, Weber St
The 16 line: Austin Peay, Hampton, FGCU, Fairleigh Dickinson, Southern, Holy Cross
Quick reactions/criticisms of actual bracket
SOUTH 32
@Des Moines - Thursday afternoon session
1) Kansas vs. 16) Austin Peay - interesting that Peay avoids the play-in game
8) Colorado vs. 9) UConn - by the way, the Des Moines regionals are loaded. Kansas/UConn in the afternoon, Indiana/Kentucky at night
@Spokane - Friday afternoon session
4) California vs. 13) Hawaii - wow, California all the way to the 1 line. Here's where road/neutral got to me: they were 5-10 in road/neutral games. 4 seed is aggressive for that kind of record
5) Maryland vs. 12) South Dakota St
@Providence - Thursday night session
3) Miami vs. 14) Buffalo
6) Arizona vs. 11) Vanderbilt/Wichita St - metrics schmetrics. The committee obviously discarded them, and threw Vandy/WSU at the end of the bracket to throw everyone off their scent. Vandy was a true bubbler, but this is a flagrant seed for Wichita
@Brooklyn - Friday afternoon session
2) Villanova vs. 15) UNC-Asheville - so why isn't Nova in the East regional? I honestly don't know. It looks like seed imbalance isn't an immediate issue. Xavier and Villanova could trade and not break any principles. Unless they specifically wanted to protect UNC, I'm not sure
7) Iowa vs. 10) Temple
WEST 35
@Spokane - Friday evening session
1) Oregon vs. 16) Holy Cross/Southern - so a play-in game winner to Dayton? No choice. The other three 1 seeds are playing at Thursday/Saturday sites
8) St Joseph's vs. 9) Cincinnati
@Providence - Thursday afternoon session
4) Duke vs. 13) UNC-Wilmington - aw man, no Duke in Spokane after all. And to add insult to injury, Duke's in the afternoon session instead of the night session
5) Baylor vs. 12) Yale
@Oklahoma City - Friday evening session
3) Texas A&M vs. 14) Green Bay - I don't get this 3 seed
6) Texas vs. 11) Northern Iowa - I guess I was aggressive on Texas' seed after all
@Oklahoma City - Friday afternoon session
2) Oklahoma vs. 15) Cal St-Bakersfield
7) Oregon St vs. 10) VCU - what a pair of ridiculous seeds. VCU barely made my field and are a few spots above where they should be. Oregon St is a ridiculous seed, plain and simple. Defend it. I dare you
MIDWEST 35
@Raleigh - Thursday afternoon session
1) Virginia vs. 16) Hampton
8) Texas Tech vs. 9) Butler
@Denver - Thursday afternoon session
4) Iowa St vs. 13) Iona
5) Purdue vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock - not much to complain about in these quadrants so far
@Denver - Thursday evening session
3) Utah vs. 14) Fresno St
6) Seton Hall vs. 11) Gonzaga - Seton Hall probably should be a 5, seems like not enough credit for their run. But it's not a major sin
@St Louis - Friday afternoon session
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Middle Tennessee - I thought injuries were supposed to be considered...
7) Dayton vs. 10) Syracuse - too high for Syracuse, plain and simple
EAST 34
@Raleigh - Thursday evening session
1) North Carolina vs. 16) FGCU/Fairleigh Dickinson
8) USC vs. 9) Providence - so I went the wrong way on USC late. Dammit
@Des Moines - Thursday evening session
4) Kentucky vs. 13) Stony Brook - 4 seed is fine for UK, but not compared to A&M's 3
5) Indiana vs. 12) Chattanooga - apparently the committee doesn't care about conference titles after all. I'm confused
@Brooklyn - Friday evening session
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Stephen F Austin
6) Notre Dame vs. 11) Michigan/Tulsa - Tulsa is a stupid pick. Not as catastrophic as, say, Air Force 2006, but it's pretty bad
@St Louis - Friday evening session
2) Xavier vs. 15) Weber St
7) Wisconsin vs. 10) Pittsburgh
East 32, South 34, Midwest 35, West 35. Balance! You know what's even better? Swapping Nova and X, which would give you a 33-33-35-35 configuration. By the way, that's the only error I see among the top 16 overall teams in terms of placement - everything else checks out to me.
@Des Moines - Thursday afternoon session
1) Kansas vs. 16) Austin Peay - interesting that Peay avoids the play-in game
8) Colorado vs. 9) UConn - by the way, the Des Moines regionals are loaded. Kansas/UConn in the afternoon, Indiana/Kentucky at night
@Spokane - Friday afternoon session
4) California vs. 13) Hawaii - wow, California all the way to the 1 line. Here's where road/neutral got to me: they were 5-10 in road/neutral games. 4 seed is aggressive for that kind of record
5) Maryland vs. 12) South Dakota St
@Providence - Thursday night session
3) Miami vs. 14) Buffalo
6) Arizona vs. 11) Vanderbilt/Wichita St - metrics schmetrics. The committee obviously discarded them, and threw Vandy/WSU at the end of the bracket to throw everyone off their scent. Vandy was a true bubbler, but this is a flagrant seed for Wichita
@Brooklyn - Friday afternoon session
2) Villanova vs. 15) UNC-Asheville - so why isn't Nova in the East regional? I honestly don't know. It looks like seed imbalance isn't an immediate issue. Xavier and Villanova could trade and not break any principles. Unless they specifically wanted to protect UNC, I'm not sure
7) Iowa vs. 10) Temple
WEST 35
@Spokane - Friday evening session
1) Oregon vs. 16) Holy Cross/Southern - so a play-in game winner to Dayton? No choice. The other three 1 seeds are playing at Thursday/Saturday sites
8) St Joseph's vs. 9) Cincinnati
@Providence - Thursday afternoon session
4) Duke vs. 13) UNC-Wilmington - aw man, no Duke in Spokane after all. And to add insult to injury, Duke's in the afternoon session instead of the night session
5) Baylor vs. 12) Yale
@Oklahoma City - Friday evening session
3) Texas A&M vs. 14) Green Bay - I don't get this 3 seed
6) Texas vs. 11) Northern Iowa - I guess I was aggressive on Texas' seed after all
@Oklahoma City - Friday afternoon session
2) Oklahoma vs. 15) Cal St-Bakersfield
7) Oregon St vs. 10) VCU - what a pair of ridiculous seeds. VCU barely made my field and are a few spots above where they should be. Oregon St is a ridiculous seed, plain and simple. Defend it. I dare you
MIDWEST 35
@Raleigh - Thursday afternoon session
1) Virginia vs. 16) Hampton
8) Texas Tech vs. 9) Butler
@Denver - Thursday afternoon session
4) Iowa St vs. 13) Iona
5) Purdue vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock - not much to complain about in these quadrants so far
@Denver - Thursday evening session
3) Utah vs. 14) Fresno St
6) Seton Hall vs. 11) Gonzaga - Seton Hall probably should be a 5, seems like not enough credit for their run. But it's not a major sin
@St Louis - Friday afternoon session
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Middle Tennessee - I thought injuries were supposed to be considered...
7) Dayton vs. 10) Syracuse - too high for Syracuse, plain and simple
EAST 34
@Raleigh - Thursday evening session
1) North Carolina vs. 16) FGCU/Fairleigh Dickinson
8) USC vs. 9) Providence - so I went the wrong way on USC late. Dammit
@Des Moines - Thursday evening session
4) Kentucky vs. 13) Stony Brook - 4 seed is fine for UK, but not compared to A&M's 3
5) Indiana vs. 12) Chattanooga - apparently the committee doesn't care about conference titles after all. I'm confused
@Brooklyn - Friday evening session
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Stephen F Austin
6) Notre Dame vs. 11) Michigan/Tulsa - Tulsa is a stupid pick. Not as catastrophic as, say, Air Force 2006, but it's pretty bad
@St Louis - Friday evening session
2) Xavier vs. 15) Weber St
7) Wisconsin vs. 10) Pittsburgh
East 32, South 34, Midwest 35, West 35. Balance! You know what's even better? Swapping Nova and X, which would give you a 33-33-35-35 configuration. By the way, that's the only error I see among the top 16 overall teams in terms of placement - everything else checks out to me.
Final NIT projections
We soldier on. Plenty of reaction posts coming up about the NCAA field.
The 1 line: St Bonaventure (22-8), South Carolina (23-8), Valparaiso (24-6), Monmouth (27-7)
The 2 line: San Diego St (23-9), St Mary's (26-5), Hofstra (23-9), Florida (19-14)
The 3 line: Ohio St (20-13), Davidson (19-12), Alabama (18-14), George Washington (23-10)
The 4 line: Georgia Tech (19-14), Washington (18-14), Georgia (19-13), Florida St (19-13)
The 5 line: Akron (25-8), BYU (22-10), Houston (22-9), Virginia Tech (19-14)
The 6 line: Princeton (21-6), William & Mary (18-11), Creighton (18-14), IPFW (22-9)
The 7 line: UAB (25-6), Belmont (19-11), New Mexico St (21-10), High Point (18-10)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10), Texas Southern (18-14)
Last 4 out: LSU (19-14), UC-Irvine (23-9), Northwestern (20-12), Clemson (17-14),
Next 4 out: Ole Miss (20-12), Kansas St (17-16), Boise St (18-12), Marquette (20-13)
Reminder that for these, I like to move teams up and down a seed line for geographic reasons.
1) St Bonaventure (22-8) vs. 8) Bucknell (16-13)
4) Georgia (19-13) vs. 5) Virginia Tech (19-14)
3) Ohio St (20-13) vs. 6) Creighton (18-14)
2) St Mary's (26-5) vs. 7) UAB (25-6)
1) Monmouth (27-7) vs. 8) Wagner (21-10)
4) George Washington (23-10) vs. 5) Princeton (21-6)
3) Davidson (19-12) vs. 6) William & Mary (18-11)
2) Florida (19-14) vs. 7) High Point (18-10)
1) Valparaiso (24-6) vs. 8) Texas Southern (18-14)
4) Florida St (19-13) vs. 5) Akron (25-8)
3) Washington (18-14) vs. 6) BYU (22-10)
2) San Diego St (23-9) vs. 7) New Mexico St (21-10)
1) South Carolina (23-8) vs. 8) North Florida (19-11)
4) Georgia Tech (19-14) vs. 5) Houston (22-9)
3) Alabama (18-14) vs. 6) IPFW (22-9)
2) Hofstra (23-9) vs. 7) Belmont (19-11)
The 1 line: St Bonaventure (22-8), South Carolina (23-8), Valparaiso (24-6), Monmouth (27-7)
The 2 line: San Diego St (23-9), St Mary's (26-5), Hofstra (23-9), Florida (19-14)
The 3 line: Ohio St (20-13), Davidson (19-12), Alabama (18-14), George Washington (23-10)
The 4 line: Georgia Tech (19-14), Washington (18-14), Georgia (19-13), Florida St (19-13)
The 5 line: Akron (25-8), BYU (22-10), Houston (22-9), Virginia Tech (19-14)
The 6 line: Princeton (21-6), William & Mary (18-11), Creighton (18-14), IPFW (22-9)
The 7 line: UAB (25-6), Belmont (19-11), New Mexico St (21-10), High Point (18-10)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10), Texas Southern (18-14)
Last 4 out: LSU (19-14), UC-Irvine (23-9), Northwestern (20-12), Clemson (17-14),
Next 4 out: Ole Miss (20-12), Kansas St (17-16), Boise St (18-12), Marquette (20-13)
Reminder that for these, I like to move teams up and down a seed line for geographic reasons.
1) St Bonaventure (22-8) vs. 8) Bucknell (16-13)
4) Georgia (19-13) vs. 5) Virginia Tech (19-14)
3) Ohio St (20-13) vs. 6) Creighton (18-14)
2) St Mary's (26-5) vs. 7) UAB (25-6)
1) Monmouth (27-7) vs. 8) Wagner (21-10)
4) George Washington (23-10) vs. 5) Princeton (21-6)
3) Davidson (19-12) vs. 6) William & Mary (18-11)
2) Florida (19-14) vs. 7) High Point (18-10)
1) Valparaiso (24-6) vs. 8) Texas Southern (18-14)
4) Florida St (19-13) vs. 5) Akron (25-8)
3) Washington (18-14) vs. 6) BYU (22-10)
2) San Diego St (23-9) vs. 7) New Mexico St (21-10)
1) South Carolina (23-8) vs. 8) North Florida (19-11)
4) Georgia Tech (19-14) vs. 5) Houston (22-9)
3) Alabama (18-14) vs. 6) IPFW (22-9)
2) Hofstra (23-9) vs. 7) Belmont (19-11)
FINAL S-CURVE
The 1 line: Kansas (30-4), Michigan St (29-5), North Carolina (28-6), Virginia (26-7)
The 2 line: Oregon (27-6), Oklahoma (25-7), Villanova (29-5), West Virginia (26-8)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Miami (25-7), Utah (26-8), Kentucky (26-8)
The 4 line: Indiana (25-7), Duke (23-10), Purdue (26-8), Iowa St (21-11)
The 5 line: Seton Hall (25-8), Texas A&M (26-8), Texas (20-12), Maryland (25-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Baylor (22-11), Notre Dame (21-11), Arizona (25-8)
The 7 line: Iowa (21-10), Wisconsin (20-12), St Joseph's (27-7), Providence (23-10)
The 8 line: Colorado (21-11), UConn (24-10), Dayton (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 9 line: Butler (21-10), Gonzaga (25-7), Wichita St (23-8), Oregon St (18-12)
The 10 line: Pittsburgh (20-11), Cincinnati (22-10), USC (21-12), Monmouth (27-7)
The 11 line: Michigan (21-12), St Bonaventure (22-8), Temple (21-11), Syracuse (19-13), VCU (24-10), South Dakota St (24-7)
The 12 line: UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (27-4), Chattanooga (27-5), Northern Iowa (21-12)
The 13 line: Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (24-6), Fresno St (23-9), Hawaii (25-5)
The 14 line: Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (22-9), Buffalo (19-14), Stephen F Austin (23-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), Weber St (23-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (20-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13), Southern (19-12), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Last 3 in:
Temple
Syracuse
VCU
Last 2 out:
Vanderbilt
San Diego St
The 2 line: Oregon (27-6), Oklahoma (25-7), Villanova (29-5), West Virginia (26-8)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Miami (25-7), Utah (26-8), Kentucky (26-8)
The 4 line: Indiana (25-7), Duke (23-10), Purdue (26-8), Iowa St (21-11)
The 5 line: Seton Hall (25-8), Texas A&M (26-8), Texas (20-12), Maryland (25-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Baylor (22-11), Notre Dame (21-11), Arizona (25-8)
The 7 line: Iowa (21-10), Wisconsin (20-12), St Joseph's (27-7), Providence (23-10)
The 8 line: Colorado (21-11), UConn (24-10), Dayton (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 9 line: Butler (21-10), Gonzaga (25-7), Wichita St (23-8), Oregon St (18-12)
The 10 line: Pittsburgh (20-11), Cincinnati (22-10), USC (21-12), Monmouth (27-7)
The 11 line: Michigan (21-12), St Bonaventure (22-8), Temple (21-11), Syracuse (19-13), VCU (24-10), South Dakota St (24-7)
The 12 line: UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (27-4), Chattanooga (27-5), Northern Iowa (21-12)
The 13 line: Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (24-6), Fresno St (23-9), Hawaii (25-5)
The 14 line: Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (22-9), Buffalo (19-14), Stephen F Austin (23-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), Weber St (23-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (20-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13), Southern (19-12), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Last 3 in:
Temple
Syracuse
VCU
Last 2 out:
Vanderbilt
San Diego St
Where am I going to be wrong?
1) the final 1 seed: the Oregon double championship scares me, but Virginia is just better. Putting faith in the committee to do the right thing.
2) the final 3 seed: I'll lean to the conference champ thing here, though. Kentucky
3) the last 4 seed: Iowa St isn't the greatest choice, but I'm leaning towards the strength of the Big 12 carrying not just them, but Baylor and Texas' seed as well
4) the 8-10 lines. Could be a jumbled mess
5) and speaking of jumbled messes...the bubble. I will take 67 of 68 teams RIGHT NOW and run.
2) the final 3 seed: I'll lean to the conference champ thing here, though. Kentucky
3) the last 4 seed: Iowa St isn't the greatest choice, but I'm leaning towards the strength of the Big 12 carrying not just them, but Baylor and Texas' seed as well
4) the 8-10 lines. Could be a jumbled mess
5) and speaking of jumbled messes...the bubble. I will take 67 of 68 teams RIGHT NOW and run.
FINAL BRACKET
SOUTH 33
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (30-4) vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13)/Holy Cross (14-19)
8) Colorado (21-11) vs. 9) Gonzaga (25-7)
@Denver
4) Purdue (26-8) vs. 13) Hawaii (25-5)
5) Texas (20-12) vs. 12) Northern Iowa (21-12)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (25-7) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (23-5)
6) California (23-10) vs. 11) Michigan (21-12)
@Brooklyn
2) Villanova (29-5) vs. 15) UNC-Asheville (20-11)
7) St Joseph's (27-7) vs. 10) Cincinnati (22-10)
WEST 37
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (26-7) vs. 16) Hampton (20-10)
8) UConn (24-10) vs. 9) Oregon St (18-12)
@Spokane
4) Iowa St (21-11) vs. 13) Fresno St (23-9)
5) Texas A&M (26-8) vs. 12) Chattanooga (27-5)
@Des Moines
3) Kentucky (26-8) vs. 14) Iona (22-10)
6) Notre Dame (21-11) vs. 11) Temple (21-11)/San Diego St (23-9)
@Spokane
2) Oregon (27-6) vs. 15) Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8)
7) Wisconsin (20-12) vs. 10) Monmouth (27-7)
EAST 33
@Raleigh
1) North Carolina (28-6) vs. 16) FGCU (16-13)
8) Dayton (25-7) vs. 9) Wichita St (23-8)
@Providence
4) Indiana (25-7) vs. 13) Stony Brook (24-6)
5) Seton Hall (25-8) vs. 12) UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
@St Louis
3) Xavier (27-5) vs. 14) Middle Tennessee (22-9)
6) Arizona (25-8) vs. 11) St Bonaventure (22-8)/Syracuse (19-13)
@Brooklyn
2) West Virginia (26-8) vs. 15) Green Bay (21-12)
7) Providence (23-10) vs. 10) Pittsburgh (20-11)
MIDWEST 33
@St Louis
1) Michigan St (29-5) vs. 16) Southern (19-12)/Austin Peay (16-17)
8) Texas Tech (19-12) vs. 9) Butler (21-10)
@Providence
4) Duke (23-10) vs. 13) Yale (21-6)
5) Maryland (25-8) vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock (27-4)
@Denver
3) Utah (26-8) vs. 14) Buffalo (19-14)
6) Baylor (22-11) vs. 11) South Dakota St (24-7)
@Oklahoma City
2) Oklahoma (25-7) vs. 15) Weber St (23-8)
7) Iowa (21-10) vs. 10) USC (21-12)
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (30-4) vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13)/Holy Cross (14-19)
8) Colorado (21-11) vs. 9) Gonzaga (25-7)
@Denver
4) Purdue (26-8) vs. 13) Hawaii (25-5)
5) Texas (20-12) vs. 12) Northern Iowa (21-12)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (25-7) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (23-5)
6) California (23-10) vs. 11) Michigan (21-12)
@Brooklyn
2) Villanova (29-5) vs. 15) UNC-Asheville (20-11)
7) St Joseph's (27-7) vs. 10) Cincinnati (22-10)
WEST 37
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (26-7) vs. 16) Hampton (20-10)
8) UConn (24-10) vs. 9) Oregon St (18-12)
@Spokane
4) Iowa St (21-11) vs. 13) Fresno St (23-9)
5) Texas A&M (26-8) vs. 12) Chattanooga (27-5)
@Des Moines
3) Kentucky (26-8) vs. 14) Iona (22-10)
6) Notre Dame (21-11) vs. 11) Temple (21-11)/San Diego St (23-9)
@Spokane
2) Oregon (27-6) vs. 15) Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8)
7) Wisconsin (20-12) vs. 10) Monmouth (27-7)
EAST 33
@Raleigh
1) North Carolina (28-6) vs. 16) FGCU (16-13)
8) Dayton (25-7) vs. 9) Wichita St (23-8)
@Providence
4) Indiana (25-7) vs. 13) Stony Brook (24-6)
5) Seton Hall (25-8) vs. 12) UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
@St Louis
3) Xavier (27-5) vs. 14) Middle Tennessee (22-9)
6) Arizona (25-8) vs. 11) St Bonaventure (22-8)/Syracuse (19-13)
@Brooklyn
2) West Virginia (26-8) vs. 15) Green Bay (21-12)
7) Providence (23-10) vs. 10) Pittsburgh (20-11)
MIDWEST 33
@St Louis
1) Michigan St (29-5) vs. 16) Southern (19-12)/Austin Peay (16-17)
8) Texas Tech (19-12) vs. 9) Butler (21-10)
@Providence
4) Duke (23-10) vs. 13) Yale (21-6)
5) Maryland (25-8) vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock (27-4)
@Denver
3) Utah (26-8) vs. 14) Buffalo (19-14)
6) Baylor (22-11) vs. 11) South Dakota St (24-7)
@Oklahoma City
2) Oklahoma (25-7) vs. 15) Weber St (23-8)
7) Iowa (21-10) vs. 10) USC (21-12)
3/13 recap
Big 10 finals:
Michigan St 66, Purdue 62
SEC finals:
Kentucky 82, Texas A&M 77 (OT) - UK, at the death, moves to the 3 line
A-10 finals:
St Joseph's 87, VCU 74 - VCU is not safe, folks
AAC finals:
UConn 72, Memphis 58
Sun Belt finals:
Arkansas-Little Rock 70, Louisiana-Monroe 50 - finally, one of these mid-majors holds serve and takes itself off the bubble
Michigan St 66, Purdue 62
SEC finals:
Kentucky 82, Texas A&M 77 (OT) - UK, at the death, moves to the 3 line
A-10 finals:
St Joseph's 87, VCU 74 - VCU is not safe, folks
AAC finals:
UConn 72, Memphis 58
Sun Belt finals:
Arkansas-Little Rock 70, Louisiana-Monroe 50 - finally, one of these mid-majors holds serve and takes itself off the bubble
3/13 S-CURVE 3.0
I have absolutely no confidence in the 9 bubble teams I have listed. God have mercy on my soul
The 1 line: Kansas (30-4), Michigan St (28-5), North Carolina (28-6), Virginia (26-7)
The 2 line: Oregon (27-6), Villanova (29-5), Oklahoma (25-7), West Virginia (26-8)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Miami (25-7), Utah (26-8), Kentucky (26-8)
The 4 line: Indiana (25-7), Duke (23-10), Purdue (26-7), Iowa St (21-11)
The 5 line: Seton Hall (25-8), Texas A&M (26-8), Texas (20-12), Maryland (25-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Baylor (22-11), Notre Dame (21-11), Arizona (25-8)
The 7 line: Iowa (21-10), Wisconsin (20-12), St Joseph's (27-7), Providence (23-10)
The 8 line: Colorado (21-11), UConn (23-10), Dayton (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 9 line: Butler (21-10), Gonzaga (25-7), Wichita St (23-8), Oregon St (18-12)
The 10 line: Pittsburgh (20-11), Cincinnati (22-10), USC (21-12), Monmouth (27-7)
The 11 line: Michigan (21-12), St Bonaventure (22-8), Temple (21-11), San Diego St (23-9), Syracuse (19-13), Northern Iowa (21-12)
The 12 line: South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (27-4), Chattanooga (27-5)
The 13 line: Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (24-6), Fresno St (23-9), Hawaii (25-5)
The 14 line: Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (22-9), Buffalo (19-14), Stephen F Austin (23-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), Weber St (23-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (20-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13), Southern (19-12), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Last 5 in:
Michigan
St Bonaventure
Temple
San Diego St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
Vanderbilt
VCU
South Carolina
St Mary's
The 1 line: Kansas (30-4), Michigan St (28-5), North Carolina (28-6), Virginia (26-7)
The 2 line: Oregon (27-6), Villanova (29-5), Oklahoma (25-7), West Virginia (26-8)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Miami (25-7), Utah (26-8), Kentucky (26-8)
The 4 line: Indiana (25-7), Duke (23-10), Purdue (26-7), Iowa St (21-11)
The 5 line: Seton Hall (25-8), Texas A&M (26-8), Texas (20-12), Maryland (25-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Baylor (22-11), Notre Dame (21-11), Arizona (25-8)
The 7 line: Iowa (21-10), Wisconsin (20-12), St Joseph's (27-7), Providence (23-10)
The 8 line: Colorado (21-11), UConn (23-10), Dayton (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 9 line: Butler (21-10), Gonzaga (25-7), Wichita St (23-8), Oregon St (18-12)
The 10 line: Pittsburgh (20-11), Cincinnati (22-10), USC (21-12), Monmouth (27-7)
The 11 line: Michigan (21-12), St Bonaventure (22-8), Temple (21-11), San Diego St (23-9), Syracuse (19-13), Northern Iowa (21-12)
The 12 line: South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (27-4), Chattanooga (27-5)
The 13 line: Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (24-6), Fresno St (23-9), Hawaii (25-5)
The 14 line: Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (22-9), Buffalo (19-14), Stephen F Austin (23-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), Weber St (23-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (20-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13), Southern (19-12), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Last 5 in:
Michigan
St Bonaventure
Temple
San Diego St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
Vanderbilt
VCU
South Carolina
St Mary's
3/13 S-CURVE 2.0
The major adjustment: USC down the board. Folks. I'm not completely sure if they're safe.
On the other end, I refuse to take Hofstra off the board. I've got a feeling about this.
Studying hard on the following:
1) the last 3 seed
2) the last 6 seed
3) the best AQ team for the 11 line
The 1 line: Kansas (30-4), Michigan St (28-5), North Carolina (28-6), Virginia (26-7)
The 2 line: Villanova (29-5), Oregon (27-6), Oklahoma (25-7), West Virginia (26-8)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Miami (25-7), Utah (26-8), Indiana (25-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (25-8), Duke (23-10), Purdue (26-7), Iowa St (21-11)
The 5 line: Seton Hall (25-8), Texas A&M (26-7), Texas (20-12), Maryland (25-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Baylor (22-11), Notre Dame (21-11), Arizona (25-8)
The 7 line: Iowa (21-10), Wisconsin (20-12), Colorado (21-11), Providence (23-10)
The 8 line: St Joseph's (26-7), UConn (23-10), Dayton (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 9 line: Butler (21-10), Gonzaga (25-7), Wichita St (23-8), Oregon St (18-12)
The 10 line: Pittsburgh (20-11), Cincinnati (22-10), Monmouth (27-7), USC (21-12)
The 11 line: Michigan (21-12), St Bonaventure (22-8), Temple (21-11), San Diego St (23-9), VCU (24-9), Northern Iowa (21-12)
The 12 line: South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (26-4), Chattanooga (27-5)
The 13 line: Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (24-6), Fresno St (23-9), Hawaii (25-5)
The 14 line: Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (22-9), Buffalo (19-14), Stephen F Austin (23-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), Weber St (23-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (20-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13), Southern (19-12), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Last 6 in:
Monmouth
USC
Michigan
St Bonaventure
Temple
San Diego St
Last 6 out:
VCU***
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
St Mary's
Valparaiso
Hofstra
On the other end, I refuse to take Hofstra off the board. I've got a feeling about this.
Studying hard on the following:
1) the last 3 seed
2) the last 6 seed
3) the best AQ team for the 11 line
The 1 line: Kansas (30-4), Michigan St (28-5), North Carolina (28-6), Virginia (26-7)
The 2 line: Villanova (29-5), Oregon (27-6), Oklahoma (25-7), West Virginia (26-8)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Miami (25-7), Utah (26-8), Indiana (25-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (25-8), Duke (23-10), Purdue (26-7), Iowa St (21-11)
The 5 line: Seton Hall (25-8), Texas A&M (26-7), Texas (20-12), Maryland (25-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Baylor (22-11), Notre Dame (21-11), Arizona (25-8)
The 7 line: Iowa (21-10), Wisconsin (20-12), Colorado (21-11), Providence (23-10)
The 8 line: St Joseph's (26-7), UConn (23-10), Dayton (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 9 line: Butler (21-10), Gonzaga (25-7), Wichita St (23-8), Oregon St (18-12)
The 10 line: Pittsburgh (20-11), Cincinnati (22-10), Monmouth (27-7), USC (21-12)
The 11 line: Michigan (21-12), St Bonaventure (22-8), Temple (21-11), San Diego St (23-9), VCU (24-9), Northern Iowa (21-12)
The 12 line: South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (26-4), Chattanooga (27-5)
The 13 line: Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (24-6), Fresno St (23-9), Hawaii (25-5)
The 14 line: Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (22-9), Buffalo (19-14), Stephen F Austin (23-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), Weber St (23-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (20-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13), Southern (19-12), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Last 6 in:
Monmouth
USC
Michigan
St Bonaventure
Temple
San Diego St
Last 6 out:
VCU***
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
St Mary's
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Saturday, March 12, 2016
3/13 S-CURVE 1.0
One last bit of AQ shenanigans:
1) VCU is now the listed AQ for the A-10, as the higher seed
2) UConn listed as the AAC AQ
Seed scrubbing underway. Don't pin me down to these rankings, it may change.
The 1 line: Kansas (30-4), Michigan St (28-5), North Carolina (28-6), Virginia (26-7)
The 2 line: Villanova (29-5), Oregon (27-6), Oklahoma (25-7), West Virginia (26-8)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Miami (25-7), Utah (26-8), Indiana (25-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (25-8), Duke (23-10), Purdue (26-7), Iowa St (21-11)
The 5 line: Seton Hall (25-8), Texas A&M (26-7), Texas (20-12), Maryland (25-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Baylor (22-11), Notre Dame (21-11), Arizona (25-8)
The 7 line: Iowa (21-10), Wisconsin (20-12), Colorado (21-11), Providence (23-10)
The 8 line: St Joseph's (26-7), UConn (23-10), Dayton (25-7), USC (21-12)
The 9 line: Butler (21-10), Texas Tech (19-12), Gonzaga (25-7), Wichita St (23-8)
The 10 line: Oregon St (18-12), Monmouth (27-7), Pittsburgh (20-11), Cincinnati (22-10)
The 11 line: Michigan (21-12), St Bonaventure (22-8), Temple (21-11), San Diego St (23-9), VCU (24-9), Northern Iowa (21-12)
The 12 line: South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (26-4), Chattanooga (27-5)
The 13 line: Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (24-6), Fresno St (23-9), Hawaii (25-5)
The 14 line: Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (22-9), Buffalo (19-14), Stephen F Austin (23-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), Weber St (23-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (20-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13), Southern (19-12), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Next 4 in:
Oregon St
Monmouth
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Last 4 in:
Michigan
St Bonaventure
Temple
San Diego St
Last 4 out:
VCU***
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
St Mary's
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Florida
Tulsa
And for the last time, Break It Down!:
Big 12 7
Pac-12 7
B1G 7
ACC 6
Big East 5
A-10 4
AAC 3
SEC 2
MWC 2
MVC 2
MAAC 2
NIT:
*note: I know I've been waffling back and forth on several of these seeds. Guessing what the NIT is going to do is impossible. We'll get through this
The 1 line: Syracuse (19-13), Vanderbilt (19-13), South Carolina (23-8), St Mary's (26-5)
The 2 line: Valparaiso (24-6), Hofstra (23-9), Florida (19-14), Tulsa (20-11)
The 3 line: Ohio St (20-13), Davidson (19-12), Georgia (19-13), George Washington (23-10)
The 4 line: Washington (18-14), Akron (25-8), Florida St (19-13), Alabama (18-14)
The 5 line: BYU (22-10), Houston (22-9), Princeton (21-6), Virginia Tech (19-14)
The 6 line: Georgia Tech (19-14), William & Mary (18-11), Creighton (18-14), IPFW (22-9)
The 7 line: UAB (25-6), Belmont (19-11), New Mexico St (21-10), High Point (18-10)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10), Texas Southern (18-14)
Last 4 out: UC-Irvine (23-9), LSU (19-14), Northwestern (20-12), Ole Miss (20-12)
Next 4 out: Kansas St (17-16), Clemson (17-14), Boise St (18-12), Marquette (20-13)
Off the board: Evansville (24-9), James Madison (20-11), Penn St (16-16), Arkansas (16-16)
1) VCU is now the listed AQ for the A-10, as the higher seed
2) UConn listed as the AAC AQ
Seed scrubbing underway. Don't pin me down to these rankings, it may change.
The 1 line: Kansas (30-4), Michigan St (28-5), North Carolina (28-6), Virginia (26-7)
The 2 line: Villanova (29-5), Oregon (27-6), Oklahoma (25-7), West Virginia (26-8)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Miami (25-7), Utah (26-8), Indiana (25-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (25-8), Duke (23-10), Purdue (26-7), Iowa St (21-11)
The 5 line: Seton Hall (25-8), Texas A&M (26-7), Texas (20-12), Maryland (25-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Baylor (22-11), Notre Dame (21-11), Arizona (25-8)
The 7 line: Iowa (21-10), Wisconsin (20-12), Colorado (21-11), Providence (23-10)
The 8 line: St Joseph's (26-7), UConn (23-10), Dayton (25-7), USC (21-12)
The 9 line: Butler (21-10), Texas Tech (19-12), Gonzaga (25-7), Wichita St (23-8)
The 10 line: Oregon St (18-12), Monmouth (27-7), Pittsburgh (20-11), Cincinnati (22-10)
The 11 line: Michigan (21-12), St Bonaventure (22-8), Temple (21-11), San Diego St (23-9), VCU (24-9), Northern Iowa (21-12)
The 12 line: South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (26-4), Chattanooga (27-5)
The 13 line: Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (24-6), Fresno St (23-9), Hawaii (25-5)
The 14 line: Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (22-9), Buffalo (19-14), Stephen F Austin (23-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), Weber St (23-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (20-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (16-13), Southern (19-12), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Next 4 in:
Oregon St
Monmouth
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Last 4 in:
Michigan
St Bonaventure
Temple
San Diego St
Last 4 out:
VCU***
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
St Mary's
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Florida
Tulsa
And for the last time, Break It Down!:
Big 12 7
Pac-12 7
B1G 7
ACC 6
Big East 5
A-10 4
AAC 3
SEC 2
MWC 2
MVC 2
MAAC 2
NIT:
*note: I know I've been waffling back and forth on several of these seeds. Guessing what the NIT is going to do is impossible. We'll get through this
The 1 line: Syracuse (19-13), Vanderbilt (19-13), South Carolina (23-8), St Mary's (26-5)
The 2 line: Valparaiso (24-6), Hofstra (23-9), Florida (19-14), Tulsa (20-11)
The 3 line: Ohio St (20-13), Davidson (19-12), Georgia (19-13), George Washington (23-10)
The 4 line: Washington (18-14), Akron (25-8), Florida St (19-13), Alabama (18-14)
The 5 line: BYU (22-10), Houston (22-9), Princeton (21-6), Virginia Tech (19-14)
The 6 line: Georgia Tech (19-14), William & Mary (18-11), Creighton (18-14), IPFW (22-9)
The 7 line: UAB (25-6), Belmont (19-11), New Mexico St (21-10), High Point (18-10)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10), Texas Southern (18-14)
Last 4 out: UC-Irvine (23-9), LSU (19-14), Northwestern (20-12), Ole Miss (20-12)
Next 4 out: Kansas St (17-16), Clemson (17-14), Boise St (18-12), Marquette (20-13)
Off the board: Evansville (24-9), James Madison (20-11), Penn St (16-16), Arkansas (16-16)
3/12 recap
Big 12 finals:
Kansas 81, West Virginia 71 - status quo for both teams
Big East finals:
Seton Hall 69, Villanova 67 - I couldn't find room for SHU on the 4 line. I couldn't find room for Nova on the 1 line
ACC finals:
North Carolina 61, Virginia 57 - resume be damned, UNC just has to be on the 1 line now
Pac-12 finals:
Oregon 88, Utah 57 - I can't get Oregon to the 1 line
Big 10 semifinals:
Michigan St 64, Maryland 61 - a tricky situation emerges. I want to only give MSU a 1 seed if they win tomorrow, but the committee historically ignores the result of that game. Meanwhile, Maryland's going to be so angry at their seed tomorrow, I think you can argue the 6 line for them
Purdue 76, Michigan 59 - I'm feeling more bullish than most on Michigan, I think
SEC semifinals:
Kentucky 93, Georgia 80
Texas A&M 71, LSU 38 - the two best teams finally get to play a game that will help the resume...and it'll tip off too late for the committee to evaluate it
A-10 semifinals:
St Joseph's 82, Dayton 79 - Dayton has damaged its seed badly lately
VCU 76, Davidson 54
AAC semifinals:
UConn 77, Temple 62 - I still don't know what to do with Temple
Memphis 74, Tulane 54
MWC finals:
Fresno St 68, San Diego St 63 - great, SDSU on the bubble too
MAC finals:
Buffalo 64, Akron 61 - jesus, Akron
Big West finals:
Hawaii 64, Long Beach St 60
CUSA finals:
Middle Tennessee 55, Old Dominion 53
Big West finals:
Hawaii 64, Long Beach St 60
A-East finals:
Stony Brook 80, Vermont 74
Big Sky finals:
Weber St 62, Montana 59
Southland finals:
Stephen F Austin 82, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 60
WAC finals:
Cal St-Bakersfield 57, New Mexico St 54
SWAC finals:
Southern 54, Jackson St 53
MEAC finals:
Hampton 81, South Carolina St 69
Sun Belt semifinals:
Arkansas-Little Rock 72, Louisiana-Lafayette 65 - it's gotten no run because UALR started its postseason just today, but the board has broken really badly for UALR's at-large hopes
Louisiana-Monroe 82, Texas-Arlington 71
Kansas 81, West Virginia 71 - status quo for both teams
Big East finals:
Seton Hall 69, Villanova 67 - I couldn't find room for SHU on the 4 line. I couldn't find room for Nova on the 1 line
ACC finals:
North Carolina 61, Virginia 57 - resume be damned, UNC just has to be on the 1 line now
Pac-12 finals:
Oregon 88, Utah 57 - I can't get Oregon to the 1 line
Big 10 semifinals:
Michigan St 64, Maryland 61 - a tricky situation emerges. I want to only give MSU a 1 seed if they win tomorrow, but the committee historically ignores the result of that game. Meanwhile, Maryland's going to be so angry at their seed tomorrow, I think you can argue the 6 line for them
Purdue 76, Michigan 59 - I'm feeling more bullish than most on Michigan, I think
SEC semifinals:
Kentucky 93, Georgia 80
Texas A&M 71, LSU 38 - the two best teams finally get to play a game that will help the resume...and it'll tip off too late for the committee to evaluate it
A-10 semifinals:
St Joseph's 82, Dayton 79 - Dayton has damaged its seed badly lately
VCU 76, Davidson 54
AAC semifinals:
UConn 77, Temple 62 - I still don't know what to do with Temple
Memphis 74, Tulane 54
MWC finals:
Fresno St 68, San Diego St 63 - great, SDSU on the bubble too
MAC finals:
Buffalo 64, Akron 61 - jesus, Akron
Big West finals:
Hawaii 64, Long Beach St 60
CUSA finals:
Middle Tennessee 55, Old Dominion 53
Big West finals:
Hawaii 64, Long Beach St 60
A-East finals:
Stony Brook 80, Vermont 74
Big Sky finals:
Weber St 62, Montana 59
Southland finals:
Stephen F Austin 82, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 60
WAC finals:
Cal St-Bakersfield 57, New Mexico St 54
SWAC finals:
Southern 54, Jackson St 53
MEAC finals:
Hampton 81, South Carolina St 69
Sun Belt semifinals:
Arkansas-Little Rock 72, Louisiana-Lafayette 65 - it's gotten no run because UALR started its postseason just today, but the board has broken really badly for UALR's at-large hopes
Louisiana-Monroe 82, Texas-Arlington 71
Idle bracket thoughts
1) If UNC wins tonight, they'll get a 1 seed despite their profile not warranting one. Previous committee history shows the eye test will matter more in those types of situations.
2) The first pressure point in the bracket is the final 3 seed. The top 11 are pretty secure, Indiana isn't. However, I'm not sure I can put Kentucky up there. Maybe Maryland or Purdue if they win tomorrow...except for the fact that in past years, the committee has been known to ignore the Big 10 championship game. Of course that also impacts Michigan St, who I think needs to win to keep their 1 seed.
3) I think I could miss the most around the 4-6 lines. The teams are mostly interchangable. I split the difference with the Big 12 teams in this range but both could easily be 4 seeds. This is probably the area I need to research the hardest in the next 24 hours.
4) South Carolina is going to miss. I'm feeling more strongly about it.
5) The immediate bubble, to me:
Last 3 in: VCU, Vandy, Michigan
Last 5 out: South Carolina, Syracuse, St Mary's, Valpo. Hofstra
Teams I think are safe, but it's not 100%: Monmouth, Pitt, Oregon St, St Bonaventure, Cincy
More teams I'm leaving on the bubble compared to previous years, but the more I look at it, the more different combinations of teams you can argue based on what you think the committee will emphasize this year. The one thing I am sure of is the cutoff after Hofstra. Tulsa, Florida, GW, et al just don't have it.
2) The first pressure point in the bracket is the final 3 seed. The top 11 are pretty secure, Indiana isn't. However, I'm not sure I can put Kentucky up there. Maybe Maryland or Purdue if they win tomorrow...except for the fact that in past years, the committee has been known to ignore the Big 10 championship game. Of course that also impacts Michigan St, who I think needs to win to keep their 1 seed.
3) I think I could miss the most around the 4-6 lines. The teams are mostly interchangable. I split the difference with the Big 12 teams in this range but both could easily be 4 seeds. This is probably the area I need to research the hardest in the next 24 hours.
4) South Carolina is going to miss. I'm feeling more strongly about it.
5) The immediate bubble, to me:
Last 3 in: VCU, Vandy, Michigan
Last 5 out: South Carolina, Syracuse, St Mary's, Valpo. Hofstra
Teams I think are safe, but it's not 100%: Monmouth, Pitt, Oregon St, St Bonaventure, Cincy
More teams I'm leaving on the bubble compared to previous years, but the more I look at it, the more different combinations of teams you can argue based on what you think the committee will emphasize this year. The one thing I am sure of is the cutoff after Hofstra. Tulsa, Florida, GW, et al just don't have it.
3/12 S-CURVE
Expect changes throughout the day. I'm correcting myself on a couple things, namely South Carolina. I was assuming no bad losses for them and that they'd get overseeded. Major correction there.
I'm tinkering with the NIT stuff too...I feel really confident about the first 5 lines there.
The 1 line: Kansas (28-4), Villanova (29-4), Virginia (26-6), Michigan St (27-5)
The 2 line: North Carolina (27-6), Oregon (26-6), West Virginia (26-7), Oklahoma (25-7)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Utah (25-7), Miami (25-7), Indiana (25-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (24-8), Maryland (24-7), Purdue (25-7), Duke (23-10)
The 5 line: Texas A&M (25-7), Texas (20-12), Iowa St (21-11), Seton Hall (24-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Arizona (25-8), Notre Dame (21-11), Baylor (21-11)
The 7 line: Dayton (25-6), Iowa (21-10), Providence (23-10), Wisconsin (20-12)
The 8 line: Colorado (21-11), USC (21-12), Butler (21-10), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 9 line: St Joseph's (25-7), Gonzaga (25-7), UConn (22-10), Wichita St (23-8)
The 10 line: Monmouth (27-7), Pittsburgh (20-11), Oregon St (18-12), St Bonaventure (22-8)
The 11 line: Cincinnati (22-10), VCU (23-9), Vanderbilt (19-13), Michigan (21-11), San Diego St (23-8), Temple (21-10)
The 12 line: South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Northern Iowa (21-12), Akron (25-7)
The 13 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4), Chattanooga (27-5), Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (23-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (24-5), Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (21-9), Stephen F Austin (22-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), New Mexico St (21-9), Weber St (22-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (19-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14), Jackson St (17-14), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Next 4 in:
Monmouth
Pittsburgh
Oregon St
St Bonaventure
Last 4 in:
Cincinnati
VCU
Vanderbilt
Michigan
Last 4 out:
South Carolina
Syracuse
St Mary's
Valparaiso
Next 4 out:
Hofstra
Tulsa
Florida
George Washington
NIT:
The 1 line: South Carolina (23-8), Syracuse (19-13), St Mary's (26-5), Valparaiso (24-6)
The 2 line: Hofstra (23-9), Tulsa (20-11), Florida (19-14), George Washington (23-10)
The 3 line: Georgia (19-12), Washington (18-14), Florida St (19-13), Ohio St (20-13)
The 4 line: BYU (22-10), Alabama (18-14), Davidson (19-11), Georgia Tech (19-14)
The 5 line: Houston (22-9), Princeton (21-6), Virginia Tech (19-14), William & Mary (18-11)
The 6 line: LSU (19-13), Fresno St (22-9), Creighton (18-14), UC-Irvine (23-9)
The 7 line: IPFW (22-9), UAB (25-6), Belmont (19-11), High Point (18-10)
The 8 line: North Florida (19-11), Bucknell (16-13), Wagner (21-10), Texas Southern (18-14)
Last 4 out: Clemson (17-14), Ole Miss (20-12), Northwestern (20-12), Marquette (20-13)
Next 4 out: Kansas St (17-16), James Madison (20-11), Boise St (18-12), Evansville (24-9)
I'm tinkering with the NIT stuff too...I feel really confident about the first 5 lines there.
The 1 line: Kansas (28-4), Villanova (29-4), Virginia (26-6), Michigan St (27-5)
The 2 line: North Carolina (27-6), Oregon (26-6), West Virginia (26-7), Oklahoma (25-7)
The 3 line: Xavier (27-5), Utah (25-7), Miami (25-7), Indiana (25-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (24-8), Maryland (24-7), Purdue (25-7), Duke (23-10)
The 5 line: Texas A&M (25-7), Texas (20-12), Iowa St (21-11), Seton Hall (24-8)
The 6 line: California (23-10), Arizona (25-8), Notre Dame (21-11), Baylor (21-11)
The 7 line: Dayton (25-6), Iowa (21-10), Providence (23-10), Wisconsin (20-12)
The 8 line: Colorado (21-11), USC (21-12), Butler (21-10), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 9 line: St Joseph's (25-7), Gonzaga (25-7), UConn (22-10), Wichita St (23-8)
The 10 line: Monmouth (27-7), Pittsburgh (20-11), Oregon St (18-12), St Bonaventure (22-8)
The 11 line: Cincinnati (22-10), VCU (23-9), Vanderbilt (19-13), Michigan (21-11), San Diego St (23-8), Temple (21-10)
The 12 line: South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Northern Iowa (21-12), Akron (25-7)
The 13 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4), Chattanooga (27-5), Yale (21-6), Stony Brook (23-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (24-5), Iona (22-10), Middle Tennessee (21-9), Stephen F Austin (22-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), New Mexico St (21-9), Weber St (22-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Hampton (19-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14), Jackson St (17-14), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Next 4 in:
Monmouth
Pittsburgh
Oregon St
St Bonaventure
Last 4 in:
Cincinnati
VCU
Vanderbilt
Michigan
Last 4 out:
South Carolina
Syracuse
St Mary's
Valparaiso
Next 4 out:
Hofstra
Tulsa
Florida
George Washington
NIT:
The 1 line: South Carolina (23-8), Syracuse (19-13), St Mary's (26-5), Valparaiso (24-6)
The 2 line: Hofstra (23-9), Tulsa (20-11), Florida (19-14), George Washington (23-10)
The 3 line: Georgia (19-12), Washington (18-14), Florida St (19-13), Ohio St (20-13)
The 4 line: BYU (22-10), Alabama (18-14), Davidson (19-11), Georgia Tech (19-14)
The 5 line: Houston (22-9), Princeton (21-6), Virginia Tech (19-14), William & Mary (18-11)
The 6 line: LSU (19-13), Fresno St (22-9), Creighton (18-14), UC-Irvine (23-9)
The 7 line: IPFW (22-9), UAB (25-6), Belmont (19-11), High Point (18-10)
The 8 line: North Florida (19-11), Bucknell (16-13), Wagner (21-10), Texas Southern (18-14)
Last 4 out: Clemson (17-14), Ole Miss (20-12), Northwestern (20-12), Marquette (20-13)
Next 4 out: Kansas St (17-16), James Madison (20-11), Boise St (18-12), Evansville (24-9)
3/12 BRACKET
SOUTH 31
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (28-4) vs. 16) Jackson St (17-14)/Austin Peay (16-17)
8) Colorado (21-11) vs. 9) Gonzaga (25-7)
@Providence
4) Kentucky (24-8) vs. 13) Stony Brook (23-6)
5) Seton Hall (24-8) vs. 12) Akron (25-7)
@Des Moines
3) Indiana (25-7) vs. 14) Iona (22-10)
6) Arizona (25-8) vs. 11) VCU (23-9)/Vanderbilt (19-13)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (27-6) vs. 15) UNC-Asheville (20-11)
7) Dayton (25-6) vs. 10) Monmouth (27-7)
WEST 35
@St Louis
1) Michigan St (27-5) vs. 16) Hampton (19-10)
8) Butler (21-10) vs. 9) Wichita St (23-8)
@Spokane
4) Duke (23-10) vs. 13) Chattanooga (27-5)
5) Texas (20-12) vs. 12) South Dakota St (24-7)
@St Louis
3) Xavier (27-5) vs. 14) Middle Tennessee (21-9)
6) Notre Dame (21-11) vs. 11) Cincinnati(22-10)/Michigan (21-11)
@Spokane
2) Oregon (26-6) vs. 15) Weber St (22-8)
7) Wisconsin (20-12) vs. 10) St Bonaventure (22-8)
MIDWEST 36
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (26-6) vs. 16) FGCU (16-13)
8) USC (21-12) vs. 9) UConn (22-10)
@Denver
4) Purdue (25-7) vs. 13) Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4)
5) Texas A&M (25-7) vs. 12) Northern Iowa (21-12)
@Denver
3) Utah (25-7) vs. 14) Hawaii (24-5)
6) Baylor (21-11) vs. 11) San Diego St (23-8)
@Oklahoma City
2) Oklahoma (25-7) vs. 15) New Mexico St (21-9)
7) Iowa (21-10) vs. 10) Oregon St (18-12)
EAST 34
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (29-4) vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14)/Holy Cross (14-19)
8) Texas Tech (19-12) vs. 9) St Joseph's (25-7)
@Providence
4) Maryland (24-7) vs. 13) Yale (21-6)
5) Iowa St (21-11) vs. 12) UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (25-7) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (22-5)
6) California (23-10) vs. 11) Temple (21-10)
@Brooklyn
2) West Virginia (26-7) vs. 15) Green Bay (21-12)
7) Providence (23-10) vs. 10) Pittsburgh (20-11)
NIT:
One reminder: I like to move teams up or down a seed line for geographical reasons, it seems the NIT does this so I'm simulating this.
1) South Carolina (23-8) vs. 8) North Florida (19-11)
4) Georgia Tech (19-14) vs. 5) Princeton (21-6)
3) Florida St (19-13) vs. 6) William & Mary (18-11)
2) Florida (19-14) vs. 7) UAB (25-6)
1) Syracuse (19-13) vs. 8) Wagner (21-10)
4) Alabama (18-14) vs. 5) Davidson (19-11)
3) Ohio St (20-13) vs. 6) LSU (19-13)
2) Hofstra (23-9) vs. 7) Winthrop (20-9)
1) St Mary's (26-5) vs. 8) Texas Southern (18-14)
4) BYU (22-10) vs. 5) Fresno St (22-9)
3) Washington (18-14) vs. 6) UC-Irvine (23-9)
2) Tulsa (20-11) vs. 7) IPFW (22-9)
1) Valparaiso (24-6) vs. 8) Bucknell (16-13)
4) Houston (22-9) vs. 5) Creighton (18-14)
3) Georgia (19-12) vs. 6) Virginia Tech (19-14)
2) George Washington (23-10) vs. 7) Belmont (19-11)
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (28-4) vs. 16) Jackson St (17-14)/Austin Peay (16-17)
8) Colorado (21-11) vs. 9) Gonzaga (25-7)
@Providence
4) Kentucky (24-8) vs. 13) Stony Brook (23-6)
5) Seton Hall (24-8) vs. 12) Akron (25-7)
@Des Moines
3) Indiana (25-7) vs. 14) Iona (22-10)
6) Arizona (25-8) vs. 11) VCU (23-9)/Vanderbilt (19-13)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (27-6) vs. 15) UNC-Asheville (20-11)
7) Dayton (25-6) vs. 10) Monmouth (27-7)
WEST 35
@St Louis
1) Michigan St (27-5) vs. 16) Hampton (19-10)
8) Butler (21-10) vs. 9) Wichita St (23-8)
@Spokane
4) Duke (23-10) vs. 13) Chattanooga (27-5)
5) Texas (20-12) vs. 12) South Dakota St (24-7)
@St Louis
3) Xavier (27-5) vs. 14) Middle Tennessee (21-9)
6) Notre Dame (21-11) vs. 11) Cincinnati(22-10)/Michigan (21-11)
@Spokane
2) Oregon (26-6) vs. 15) Weber St (22-8)
7) Wisconsin (20-12) vs. 10) St Bonaventure (22-8)
MIDWEST 36
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (26-6) vs. 16) FGCU (16-13)
8) USC (21-12) vs. 9) UConn (22-10)
@Denver
4) Purdue (25-7) vs. 13) Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4)
5) Texas A&M (25-7) vs. 12) Northern Iowa (21-12)
@Denver
3) Utah (25-7) vs. 14) Hawaii (24-5)
6) Baylor (21-11) vs. 11) San Diego St (23-8)
@Oklahoma City
2) Oklahoma (25-7) vs. 15) New Mexico St (21-9)
7) Iowa (21-10) vs. 10) Oregon St (18-12)
EAST 34
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (29-4) vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14)/Holy Cross (14-19)
8) Texas Tech (19-12) vs. 9) St Joseph's (25-7)
@Providence
4) Maryland (24-7) vs. 13) Yale (21-6)
5) Iowa St (21-11) vs. 12) UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (25-7) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (22-5)
6) California (23-10) vs. 11) Temple (21-10)
@Brooklyn
2) West Virginia (26-7) vs. 15) Green Bay (21-12)
7) Providence (23-10) vs. 10) Pittsburgh (20-11)
NIT:
One reminder: I like to move teams up or down a seed line for geographical reasons, it seems the NIT does this so I'm simulating this.
1) South Carolina (23-8) vs. 8) North Florida (19-11)
4) Georgia Tech (19-14) vs. 5) Princeton (21-6)
3) Florida St (19-13) vs. 6) William & Mary (18-11)
2) Florida (19-14) vs. 7) UAB (25-6)
1) Syracuse (19-13) vs. 8) Wagner (21-10)
4) Alabama (18-14) vs. 5) Davidson (19-11)
3) Ohio St (20-13) vs. 6) LSU (19-13)
2) Hofstra (23-9) vs. 7) Winthrop (20-9)
1) St Mary's (26-5) vs. 8) Texas Southern (18-14)
4) BYU (22-10) vs. 5) Fresno St (22-9)
3) Washington (18-14) vs. 6) UC-Irvine (23-9)
2) Tulsa (20-11) vs. 7) IPFW (22-9)
1) Valparaiso (24-6) vs. 8) Bucknell (16-13)
4) Houston (22-9) vs. 5) Creighton (18-14)
3) Georgia (19-12) vs. 6) Virginia Tech (19-14)
2) George Washington (23-10) vs. 7) Belmont (19-11)
Friday, March 11, 2016
3/11 recap
Big 12 semifinals:
Kansas 70, Baylor 66
West Virginia 69, Oklahoma 67
Big East semifinals:
Villanova 76, Providence 68 - Nova still might need one more win to lock itself on the 1 line
Seton Hall 87, Xavier 83 - and that's because they lose a signature win chance because the Hall won this game. They can still climb to the 5 or 6 line. Xavier might have to settle for the 3 line now
ACC semifinals:
Virginia 73, Miami 68
North Carolina 78, Notre Dame 47 - based on pure resume, UNC's a 3 seed. However, the committee has shown that they ignore resume when it comes to the 1 line and will dis-proportionally award conference champs. Look in the past, I even highlighted one such decision 2 years ago. If UNC wins tomorrow they have their 1 line. Virginia too, for that matter. UNC will be a 2 with a loss; UVa might still sneak on the 1 line itself
Pac-12 semifinals:
Oregon 95, Arizona 89 - can Oregon get all the way home to the 1 line? Probably requires some combination of a Michigan St and UNC loss
Utah 82, California 78 (OT) - Cal is going to be a tricky team to seed; can Utah get to the 2 line? Not sure, frankly
Big 10 quarterfinals:
Michigan St 81, Ohio St 54
Michigan 72, Indiana 69 - who knows about Michigan...Indiana's seed is a tricky story in itself. Feels like a 4 to me
Purdue 89, Illinois 58
Maryland 97, Nebraska 86
SEC quarterfinals:
Kentucky 85, Alabama 59
Texas A&M 72, Florida 66
LSU 84, Tennessee 75
Georgia 65, South Carolina 64 - I know it's a drastic move, but I think I'm moving this team completely off my bracket. There's red flags here; I've learned my lesson from the past
A-10 quarterfinals:
Dayton 69, Richmond 54
St Joseph's 86, George Washington 80 - simple result, get rid of GW and lock St Joe's
VCU 85, UMass 70 - I'm still further down on VCU than most, but we'll see. Probably will move them into the field now
Davidson 90, St Bonaventure 86 (OT) - great, I moved them up higher than the other bubble teams, and they lose like this. I'm still probably having them in overall, but I'm not feeling great about it anymore. Expect a seed adjustment. And in a non-trivial development, Davidson actually really needed this for their NIT bid
AAC quarterfinals:
Temple 79, South Florida 62
UConn 104, Cincinnati 97 (4OT)
Tulane 72, Houston 69 - ew
Memphis 89, Tulsa 67 - well, that's one way to make a bubble statement. Bubble got simple in this conference. UConn and Cincy probably fine; Temple one win away
Mountain West semifinals:
San Diego St 67, Nevada 55
Fresno St 64, Colorado St 56 - Fresno should be a NIT team this year
MAC semfinals:
Akron 80, Bowling Green 66
Buffalo 88, Ohio 74
Big West semifinals:
Hawaii 88, UC-Santa Barbara 76
Long Beach St 77, UC-Irvine 72 - probably knocked UCI out of the NIT
Sun Belt quarterfinals:
Louisiana-Lafayette 90, South Alabama 68
Texas-Arlington 72, Texas St 63
CUSA semifinals:
Old Dominion 89, Western Kentucky 77
Middle Tennessee 99, Marshall 90
Big Sky semifinals:
Weber St 83, North Dakota 78 (OT)
Montana 81, Idaho 72
Southland semifinals:
Stephen F Austin 104, Houston Baptist 68
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 79, Sam Houston St 76
WAC semifinals:
New Mexico St 78, UMKC 64
Cal St-Bakersfield 72, Seattle 47
SWAC semifinals:
Jackson St 74, Mississippi Valley St 68
Southern 81, Texas Southern 73 - oh man, the SWAC actually could've avoided Dayton this year if TSU got through
MEAC semifinals:
Hampton 89, Savannah St 55
South Carolina St 67, Norfolk St 65
Kansas 70, Baylor 66
West Virginia 69, Oklahoma 67
Big East semifinals:
Villanova 76, Providence 68 - Nova still might need one more win to lock itself on the 1 line
Seton Hall 87, Xavier 83 - and that's because they lose a signature win chance because the Hall won this game. They can still climb to the 5 or 6 line. Xavier might have to settle for the 3 line now
ACC semifinals:
Virginia 73, Miami 68
North Carolina 78, Notre Dame 47 - based on pure resume, UNC's a 3 seed. However, the committee has shown that they ignore resume when it comes to the 1 line and will dis-proportionally award conference champs. Look in the past, I even highlighted one such decision 2 years ago. If UNC wins tomorrow they have their 1 line. Virginia too, for that matter. UNC will be a 2 with a loss; UVa might still sneak on the 1 line itself
Pac-12 semifinals:
Oregon 95, Arizona 89 - can Oregon get all the way home to the 1 line? Probably requires some combination of a Michigan St and UNC loss
Utah 82, California 78 (OT) - Cal is going to be a tricky team to seed; can Utah get to the 2 line? Not sure, frankly
Big 10 quarterfinals:
Michigan St 81, Ohio St 54
Michigan 72, Indiana 69 - who knows about Michigan...Indiana's seed is a tricky story in itself. Feels like a 4 to me
Purdue 89, Illinois 58
Maryland 97, Nebraska 86
SEC quarterfinals:
Kentucky 85, Alabama 59
Texas A&M 72, Florida 66
LSU 84, Tennessee 75
Georgia 65, South Carolina 64 - I know it's a drastic move, but I think I'm moving this team completely off my bracket. There's red flags here; I've learned my lesson from the past
A-10 quarterfinals:
Dayton 69, Richmond 54
St Joseph's 86, George Washington 80 - simple result, get rid of GW and lock St Joe's
VCU 85, UMass 70 - I'm still further down on VCU than most, but we'll see. Probably will move them into the field now
Davidson 90, St Bonaventure 86 (OT) - great, I moved them up higher than the other bubble teams, and they lose like this. I'm still probably having them in overall, but I'm not feeling great about it anymore. Expect a seed adjustment. And in a non-trivial development, Davidson actually really needed this for their NIT bid
AAC quarterfinals:
Temple 79, South Florida 62
UConn 104, Cincinnati 97 (4OT)
Tulane 72, Houston 69 - ew
Memphis 89, Tulsa 67 - well, that's one way to make a bubble statement. Bubble got simple in this conference. UConn and Cincy probably fine; Temple one win away
Mountain West semifinals:
San Diego St 67, Nevada 55
Fresno St 64, Colorado St 56 - Fresno should be a NIT team this year
MAC semfinals:
Akron 80, Bowling Green 66
Buffalo 88, Ohio 74
Big West semifinals:
Hawaii 88, UC-Santa Barbara 76
Long Beach St 77, UC-Irvine 72 - probably knocked UCI out of the NIT
Sun Belt quarterfinals:
Louisiana-Lafayette 90, South Alabama 68
Texas-Arlington 72, Texas St 63
CUSA semifinals:
Old Dominion 89, Western Kentucky 77
Middle Tennessee 99, Marshall 90
Big Sky semifinals:
Weber St 83, North Dakota 78 (OT)
Montana 81, Idaho 72
Southland semifinals:
Stephen F Austin 104, Houston Baptist 68
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 79, Sam Houston St 76
WAC semifinals:
New Mexico St 78, UMKC 64
Cal St-Bakersfield 72, Seattle 47
SWAC semifinals:
Jackson St 74, Mississippi Valley St 68
Southern 81, Texas Southern 73 - oh man, the SWAC actually could've avoided Dayton this year if TSU got through
MEAC semifinals:
Hampton 89, Savannah St 55
South Carolina St 67, Norfolk St 65
3/11 S-CURVE
I'm going to seed scrub, so expect some kind of change tomorrow. For now, just some shuffling.
Iowa from a 6 to a 7, Dayton from a 7 to a 6
Providence from a 8 to a 7, Wisconsin from a 7 to a 8
Cincinnati from a 11 to a 10, Vanderbilt from a 10 to an 11
Middle Tennessee in for UAB and takes their 14 seed
The 1 line: Kansas (27-4), Villanova (28-4), Virginia (25-6), Michiagn St (26-5)
The 2 line: Oklahoma (25-6), North Carolina (26-6), Xavier (27-4), Oregon (25-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (25-7), Miami (25-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (24-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Purdue (24-7), Duke (23-10)
The 5 line: Texas A&M (24-7), Arizona (25-7), Texas (20-12), Iowa St (21-11)
The 6 line: Notre Dame (21-10), Baylor (21-10), California (23-9), Dayton (24-6)
The 7 line: Seton Hall (23-8), Iowa (21-10), Colorado (21-11), Providence (23-9)
The 8 line: USC (21-12), Wisconsin (20-12), St Bonaventure (22-7), Butler (21-10)
The 9 line: South Carolina (23-7), Pittsburgh (20-11), Gonzaga (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 10 line: Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7), Monmouth (27-7), Cincinnati (22-9)
The 11 line: UConn (21-10), Oregon St (18-12), Vanderbilt (19-13), Syracuse (19-13), San Diego St (22-8), Temple (20-10)
The 12 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4), Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
The 13 line: Akron (24-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (23-5), Iona (22-10), Stephen F Austin (21-5), Middle Tennessee (20-9)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (18-13), Hampton (18-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Next 4 in:
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Monmouth
Cincinnati
Last 4 in:
UConn
Oregon St
Vanderbilt
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
St Mary's
VCU
Michigan
Tulsa
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Florida
George Washington
NIT:
The 1 line: St Mary's (26-5), VCU (22-9), Michigan (20-11), Tulsa (20-10)
The 2 line: Valparaiso (24-6), Hofstra (23-9), Florida (19-13), George Washington (23-9)
The 3 line: Alabama (18-13), Houston (22-8), Washington (18-14), Florida St (19-13)
The 4 line: Georgia Tech (19-14), Ohio St (20-12), BYU (22-10), Creighton (18-14)
The 5 line: Virginia Tech (19-14), Princeton (21-6), William & Mary (18-11), Georgia (18-12)
The 6 line: Fresno St (21-9), LSU (18-13), Davidson (18-11), UC-Irvine (23-8)
The 7 line: Boise St (18-12), UAB (25-6), IPFW (22-9), Belmont (19-11)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), High Point (18-10), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10)
Last 4 out: Northwestern (20-12), Ole Miss (20-12), Clemson (17-14), Kansas St (17-15)
Next 4 out: Marquette (20-13), Ohio (20-10), James Madison (20-11), Evansville (24-9)
Iowa from a 6 to a 7, Dayton from a 7 to a 6
Providence from a 8 to a 7, Wisconsin from a 7 to a 8
Cincinnati from a 11 to a 10, Vanderbilt from a 10 to an 11
Middle Tennessee in for UAB and takes their 14 seed
The 1 line: Kansas (27-4), Villanova (28-4), Virginia (25-6), Michiagn St (26-5)
The 2 line: Oklahoma (25-6), North Carolina (26-6), Xavier (27-4), Oregon (25-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (25-7), Miami (25-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (24-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Purdue (24-7), Duke (23-10)
The 5 line: Texas A&M (24-7), Arizona (25-7), Texas (20-12), Iowa St (21-11)
The 6 line: Notre Dame (21-10), Baylor (21-10), California (23-9), Dayton (24-6)
The 7 line: Seton Hall (23-8), Iowa (21-10), Colorado (21-11), Providence (23-9)
The 8 line: USC (21-12), Wisconsin (20-12), St Bonaventure (22-7), Butler (21-10)
The 9 line: South Carolina (23-7), Pittsburgh (20-11), Gonzaga (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 10 line: Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7), Monmouth (27-7), Cincinnati (22-9)
The 11 line: UConn (21-10), Oregon St (18-12), Vanderbilt (19-13), Syracuse (19-13), San Diego St (22-8), Temple (20-10)
The 12 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4), Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
The 13 line: Akron (24-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (23-5), Iona (22-10), Stephen F Austin (21-5), Middle Tennessee (20-9)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (21-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (18-13), Hampton (18-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Next 4 in:
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Monmouth
Cincinnati
Last 4 in:
UConn
Oregon St
Vanderbilt
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
St Mary's
VCU
Michigan
Tulsa
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Florida
George Washington
NIT:
The 1 line: St Mary's (26-5), VCU (22-9), Michigan (20-11), Tulsa (20-10)
The 2 line: Valparaiso (24-6), Hofstra (23-9), Florida (19-13), George Washington (23-9)
The 3 line: Alabama (18-13), Houston (22-8), Washington (18-14), Florida St (19-13)
The 4 line: Georgia Tech (19-14), Ohio St (20-12), BYU (22-10), Creighton (18-14)
The 5 line: Virginia Tech (19-14), Princeton (21-6), William & Mary (18-11), Georgia (18-12)
The 6 line: Fresno St (21-9), LSU (18-13), Davidson (18-11), UC-Irvine (23-8)
The 7 line: Boise St (18-12), UAB (25-6), IPFW (22-9), Belmont (19-11)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), High Point (18-10), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10)
Last 4 out: Northwestern (20-12), Ole Miss (20-12), Clemson (17-14), Kansas St (17-15)
Next 4 out: Marquette (20-13), Ohio (20-10), James Madison (20-11), Evansville (24-9)
Thursday, March 10, 2016
3/10 recap
Big 12 quarterfinals:
Kansas 85, Kansas St 63
Oklahoma 79, Iowa St 76
West Virginia 86, TCU 66
Baylor 75, Texas 61 - Baylor started behind Texas and ISU...and is still there...but can play their way ahead tomorrow
Big East quarterfinals:
Villanova 81, Georgetown 67
Xavier 90, Marquette 72
Providence 74, Butler 60 - not optimal, but Butler should be okay
Seton Hall 81, Creighton 73
ACC quarterfinals:
Virginia 72, Georgia Tech 52
North Carolina 88, Pittsburgh 71 - Pitt's probably done enough. Step one of three for UNC's 1 seed complete
Miami 88, Virginia Tech 82 - Miami might need to beat Virginia to be on the 2 line
Notre Dame 84, Duke 79 - that last spot on the 4 line is open for a lot of teams...
Pac-12 quarterfinals:
Oregon 83, Washington 77 - endgame for Washington
Utah 80, USC 72 - USC's done enough
Arizona 82, Colorado 78
California 76, Oregon St 68 - OSU a true bubble team
Big 10 second round:
Illinois 68, Iowa 66 - wat
Michigan 72, Northwestern 70 (OT) - almost a disaster
Ohio St 79, Penn St 75
Nebraska 70, Wisconsin 58 - good luck seeding Wisky in your bracket, by the way. It's impossible
SEC second round:
Florida 68, Arkansas 61
Tennessee 67, Vanderbilt 65 - catastrophic loss of the day
Alabama 81, Ole Miss 73
Georgia 79, Mississippi St 69 - well, 3 of 4 teams that had to win did, at least. 3 flickering hopes tomorrow
A-10 second round:
Richmond 70, Fordham 55
George Washington 73, St Louis 65 - that's step one
UMass 67, Rhode Island 62
Davidson 78, LaSalle 63
AAC first round:
South Florida 71, East Carolina 66
Tulane 65, Central Florida 63
MWC quarterfinals:
San Diego St 71, Utah St 65
Nevada 64, New Mexico 62
Fresno St 95, UNLV 82
Colorado St 88, Boise St 81 - this should lock Boise out of the NIT. It's Fresno or bust
MAC quarterfinals:
Akron 65, Eastern Michigan 63
Bowling Green 62, Central Michigan 59
Ohio 79, Northern Illinois 62
Buffalo 94, Miami(OH) 81
CUSA quarterfinals:
Western Kentucky 88, UAB 77 - sigh
Old Dominion 68, Louisiana Tech 52
Middle Tennessee 79, Charlotte 61 - MTSU has a reasonable chance of avoiding the 15 line; others notsomuch
Marshall 87, UTEP 85
Big West quarterfinals:
UC-Santa Barbara 87, UC-Davis 61
Hawaii 75, Cal St-Fullerton 44
UC-Irvine 84, Cal Poly 64
Long Beach St 82, UC-Riverside 74 - top 4 handle business here, I'm impressed. Irvine on that NIT bubble needs another win
Big Sky quarterfinals:
Weber St 78, Portland St 74
North Dakota 83, Idaho St 49
Montana 70, Sacramento St 53
Idaho 77, Eastern Washington 73
WAC quarterfinals:
UMKC 80, Utah Valley 78
Cal St-Bakersfield 79, Chicago St 57
Seattle 75, UT-Rio Grande Valley 52
SWAC quarterfinals:
Jackson St 69, Prairie View A&M 51
Southern 83, Alabama St 63
MEAC quarterfinals:
South Carolina St 90, Coppin St 80
Savannah St 57, Bethune-Cookman 50
Southland second round:
Houston Baptist 73, SE Louisiana 68
Sam Houston St 60, Nicholls St 59
Sun Belt first round:
South Alabama 67, Georgia Southern 61
Texas St 63, Georgia St 61
Kansas 85, Kansas St 63
Oklahoma 79, Iowa St 76
West Virginia 86, TCU 66
Baylor 75, Texas 61 - Baylor started behind Texas and ISU...and is still there...but can play their way ahead tomorrow
Big East quarterfinals:
Villanova 81, Georgetown 67
Xavier 90, Marquette 72
Providence 74, Butler 60 - not optimal, but Butler should be okay
Seton Hall 81, Creighton 73
ACC quarterfinals:
Virginia 72, Georgia Tech 52
North Carolina 88, Pittsburgh 71 - Pitt's probably done enough. Step one of three for UNC's 1 seed complete
Miami 88, Virginia Tech 82 - Miami might need to beat Virginia to be on the 2 line
Notre Dame 84, Duke 79 - that last spot on the 4 line is open for a lot of teams...
Pac-12 quarterfinals:
Oregon 83, Washington 77 - endgame for Washington
Utah 80, USC 72 - USC's done enough
Arizona 82, Colorado 78
California 76, Oregon St 68 - OSU a true bubble team
Big 10 second round:
Illinois 68, Iowa 66 - wat
Michigan 72, Northwestern 70 (OT) - almost a disaster
Ohio St 79, Penn St 75
Nebraska 70, Wisconsin 58 - good luck seeding Wisky in your bracket, by the way. It's impossible
SEC second round:
Florida 68, Arkansas 61
Tennessee 67, Vanderbilt 65 - catastrophic loss of the day
Alabama 81, Ole Miss 73
Georgia 79, Mississippi St 69 - well, 3 of 4 teams that had to win did, at least. 3 flickering hopes tomorrow
A-10 second round:
Richmond 70, Fordham 55
George Washington 73, St Louis 65 - that's step one
UMass 67, Rhode Island 62
Davidson 78, LaSalle 63
AAC first round:
South Florida 71, East Carolina 66
Tulane 65, Central Florida 63
MWC quarterfinals:
San Diego St 71, Utah St 65
Nevada 64, New Mexico 62
Fresno St 95, UNLV 82
Colorado St 88, Boise St 81 - this should lock Boise out of the NIT. It's Fresno or bust
MAC quarterfinals:
Akron 65, Eastern Michigan 63
Bowling Green 62, Central Michigan 59
Ohio 79, Northern Illinois 62
Buffalo 94, Miami(OH) 81
CUSA quarterfinals:
Western Kentucky 88, UAB 77 - sigh
Old Dominion 68, Louisiana Tech 52
Middle Tennessee 79, Charlotte 61 - MTSU has a reasonable chance of avoiding the 15 line; others notsomuch
Marshall 87, UTEP 85
Big West quarterfinals:
UC-Santa Barbara 87, UC-Davis 61
Hawaii 75, Cal St-Fullerton 44
UC-Irvine 84, Cal Poly 64
Long Beach St 82, UC-Riverside 74 - top 4 handle business here, I'm impressed. Irvine on that NIT bubble needs another win
Big Sky quarterfinals:
Weber St 78, Portland St 74
North Dakota 83, Idaho St 49
Montana 70, Sacramento St 53
Idaho 77, Eastern Washington 73
WAC quarterfinals:
UMKC 80, Utah Valley 78
Cal St-Bakersfield 79, Chicago St 57
Seattle 75, UT-Rio Grande Valley 52
SWAC quarterfinals:
Jackson St 69, Prairie View A&M 51
Southern 83, Alabama St 63
MEAC quarterfinals:
South Carolina St 90, Coppin St 80
Savannah St 57, Bethune-Cookman 50
Southland second round:
Houston Baptist 73, SE Louisiana 68
Sam Houston St 60, Nicholls St 59
Sun Belt first round:
South Alabama 67, Georgia Southern 61
Texas St 63, Georgia St 61
Ivy League conference recap
This is part 32 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Yale 13-1 (22-6)
Princeton 12-2 (22-6)
Columbia 10-4 (21-10)
Harvard 6-8 (14-16)
Penn 5-9 (11-17)
Dartmouth 4-10 (10-18)
Cornell 3-11 (10-18)
Brown 3-11 (8-20)
The stakes:
Yale's shiny RPI doesn't match the rest of its resume. They should probably take a 13 seed and be glad with it, although they can definitely end up on the 14 line.
Princeton is an interesting NIT case. RPI 39. And literally nothing else in the resume says they deserve the NIT. Just the one top 100 win over Yale. Their non-con SoS is quite honestly, fraudulent, because they played several conference champs of lesser leagues (albeit winning a few of them). They'll probably get in the NIT because that's how the RPI works these days, but it's not a slam-dunk case.
Columbia has a resume befitting a CIT team, if they want to play on.
The standings:
Yale 13-1 (22-6)
Princeton 12-2 (22-6)
Columbia 10-4 (21-10)
Harvard 6-8 (14-16)
Penn 5-9 (11-17)
Dartmouth 4-10 (10-18)
Cornell 3-11 (10-18)
Brown 3-11 (8-20)
The stakes:
Yale's shiny RPI doesn't match the rest of its resume. They should probably take a 13 seed and be glad with it, although they can definitely end up on the 14 line.
Princeton is an interesting NIT case. RPI 39. And literally nothing else in the resume says they deserve the NIT. Just the one top 100 win over Yale. Their non-con SoS is quite honestly, fraudulent, because they played several conference champs of lesser leagues (albeit winning a few of them). They'll probably get in the NIT because that's how the RPI works these days, but it's not a slam-dunk case.
Columbia has a resume befitting a CIT team, if they want to play on.
WAC conference tournament preview
This is part 31 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
New Mexico St 13-1 (22-9)
Grand Canyon 11-3 (25-6)
Cal St-Bakersfield 11-3 (21-8)
Seattle 7-7 (13-15)
Utah Valley 6-8 (12-17)
UMKC 4-10 (11-18)
UT-Rio Grande Valley 4-10 (8-21)
Chicago St 0-14 (4-27)
Tournament format:
Vegas from Thursday March 10 to Saturday March 12. Grand Canyon is still transitioning and ineligible.
The matchups:
1) New Mexico St vs. 4/5) Utah Valley/UMKC
2/7) Cal St-Bakersfield/Chicago St vs. 3/6) Seattle/UT-Rio Grande Valley
The stakes:
The continued demise of the WAC continues to hurt New Mexico St. They tried to schedule up, but couldn't do anything with it, and are therefore staring at the 15 line. Everyone else would be headed to Dayton, so I guess it could be worse.
Grand Canyon is CIT-eligible, but not NIT-eligible. We'll probably see them get an invite, as well as Cal St-Bakersfield. CSUB has a legit CIT resume and deserves a postseason bid, so kudos to them.
The standings:
New Mexico St 13-1 (22-9)
Grand Canyon 11-3 (25-6)
Cal St-Bakersfield 11-3 (21-8)
Seattle 7-7 (13-15)
Utah Valley 6-8 (12-17)
UMKC 4-10 (11-18)
UT-Rio Grande Valley 4-10 (8-21)
Chicago St 0-14 (4-27)
Tournament format:
Vegas from Thursday March 10 to Saturday March 12. Grand Canyon is still transitioning and ineligible.
The matchups:
1) New Mexico St vs. 4/5) Utah Valley/UMKC
2/7) Cal St-Bakersfield/Chicago St vs. 3/6) Seattle/UT-Rio Grande Valley
The stakes:
The continued demise of the WAC continues to hurt New Mexico St. They tried to schedule up, but couldn't do anything with it, and are therefore staring at the 15 line. Everyone else would be headed to Dayton, so I guess it could be worse.
Grand Canyon is CIT-eligible, but not NIT-eligible. We'll probably see them get an invite, as well as Cal St-Bakersfield. CSUB has a legit CIT resume and deserves a postseason bid, so kudos to them.
3/10 S-CURVE
Bracket Matrix: only change today is Syracuse from the 10 line to the 11 line, and Vanderbilt from the 11 line to the 10 line.
The 1 line: Kansas (26-4), Villanova (27-4), Virginia (24-6), Michiagn St (26-5)
The 2 line: North Carolina (25-6), Oklahoma (24-6), Xavier (26-4), Oregon (24-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (24-7), Miami (24-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (23-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Duke (23-9), Purdue (24-7)
The 5 line: Texas (20-11), Iowa St (21-10), Texas A&M (24-7), Arizona (24-7)
The 6 line: Iowa (21-9), Baylor (20-10), California (22-9), Notre Dame (20-10)
The 7 line: Dayton (24-6), Wisconsin (20-11), Seton Hall (22-8), Colorado (21-10)
The 8 line: Providence (22-9), USC (21-11), St Bonaventure (22-7), Butler (21-9)
The 9 line: South Carolina (23-7), Pittsburgh (20-10), Gonzaga (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 10 line: Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7), Monmouth (27-7), Vanderbilt (19-12)
The 11 line: Cincinnati (22-9), UConn (21-10), Oregon St (18-11), Syracuse (19-13), San Diego St (21-8), Temple (20-10)
The 12 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4), Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
The 13 line: Akron (23-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (22-5), Iona (22-10), UAB (25-5), Stephen F Austin (21-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (20-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (18-13), Hampton (18-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Next 4 in:
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Monmouth
Vanderbilt
Last 4 in:
Cincinnati
UConn
Oregon St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
St Mary's
VCU
Michigan
Tulsa
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Florida
George Washington
NIT:
The 1 line: St Mary's (26-5), VCU (22-9), Michigan (19-11), Tulsa (20-10)
The 2 line: Valparaiso (24-6), Hofstra (23-9), Florida (18-13), George Washington (22-9)
The 3 line: Alabama (17-13), Houston (22-8), Washington (18-13), Florida St (19-13)
The 4 line: Georgia Tech (19-13), Ohio St (19-12), BYU (22-10), Creighton (18-13)
The 5 line: Virginia Tech (19-13), Princeton (21-6), William & Mary (18-11), Georgia (17-12)
The 6 line: Fresno St (20-9), LSU (18-13), Boise St (18-11), UC-Irvine (22-8)
The 7 line: Davidson (17-11), Northwestern (20-11), IPFW (22-9), Belmont (19-11)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), High Point (18-10), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10)
Last 4 out: Ole Miss (20-11), Clemson (17-14), Kansas St (17-15), Marquette (20-12)
Next 4 out: Ohio (19-10), James Madison (20-11), Evansville (24-9)
The 1 line: Kansas (26-4), Villanova (27-4), Virginia (24-6), Michiagn St (26-5)
The 2 line: North Carolina (25-6), Oklahoma (24-6), Xavier (26-4), Oregon (24-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (24-7), Miami (24-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (23-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Duke (23-9), Purdue (24-7)
The 5 line: Texas (20-11), Iowa St (21-10), Texas A&M (24-7), Arizona (24-7)
The 6 line: Iowa (21-9), Baylor (20-10), California (22-9), Notre Dame (20-10)
The 7 line: Dayton (24-6), Wisconsin (20-11), Seton Hall (22-8), Colorado (21-10)
The 8 line: Providence (22-9), USC (21-11), St Bonaventure (22-7), Butler (21-9)
The 9 line: South Carolina (23-7), Pittsburgh (20-10), Gonzaga (25-7), Texas Tech (19-12)
The 10 line: Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7), Monmouth (27-7), Vanderbilt (19-12)
The 11 line: Cincinnati (22-9), UConn (21-10), Oregon St (18-11), Syracuse (19-13), San Diego St (21-8), Temple (20-10)
The 12 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4), Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
The 13 line: Akron (23-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (22-5), Iona (22-10), UAB (25-5), Stephen F Austin (21-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (20-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (18-13), Hampton (18-10), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14), Austin Peay (16-17), Holy Cross (14-19)
Next 4 in:
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Monmouth
Vanderbilt
Last 4 in:
Cincinnati
UConn
Oregon St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
St Mary's
VCU
Michigan
Tulsa
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Florida
George Washington
NIT:
The 1 line: St Mary's (26-5), VCU (22-9), Michigan (19-11), Tulsa (20-10)
The 2 line: Valparaiso (24-6), Hofstra (23-9), Florida (18-13), George Washington (22-9)
The 3 line: Alabama (17-13), Houston (22-8), Washington (18-13), Florida St (19-13)
The 4 line: Georgia Tech (19-13), Ohio St (19-12), BYU (22-10), Creighton (18-13)
The 5 line: Virginia Tech (19-13), Princeton (21-6), William & Mary (18-11), Georgia (17-12)
The 6 line: Fresno St (20-9), LSU (18-13), Boise St (18-11), UC-Irvine (22-8)
The 7 line: Davidson (17-11), Northwestern (20-11), IPFW (22-9), Belmont (19-11)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), High Point (18-10), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10)
Last 4 out: Ole Miss (20-11), Clemson (17-14), Kansas St (17-15), Marquette (20-12)
Next 4 out: Ohio (19-10), James Madison (20-11), Evansville (24-9)
3/9 recap
Patriot finals:
Holy Cross 59, Lehigh 56
Big East first round:
Georgetown 70, DePaul 53
Marquette 101, St John's 93
Big 12 first round:
Kansas St 75, Oklahoma 71
TCU 67, Texas Tech 62 - the plot thickens
ACC second round:
Duke 92, NC State 89
Pittsburgh 72, Syracuse 71 - I think Pitt should be fine, I was aggressive on their seed to begin with though. Syracuse is a legit bubble team, though
Georgia Tech 88, Clemson 85 (OT) - that might've popped Clemson's NIT bubble
Virginia Tech 96, Florida St 85 - I love it when longshot bubble teams make my job easy
Pac-12 first round:
Washington 91, Stanford 68 - Stanford is a true NIT bubble team; Washington needs much more but this is a start
Colorado 80, Washington St 56
USC 95, UCLA 71 - disaster avoided across the board in the Pac-12
Oregon St 75, Arizona St 66
B1G first round:
Illinois 85, Minnesota 52
Nebraska 89, Rutgers 72
SEC first round:
Tennessee 97, Auburn 59
A-10 first round:
St Louis 83, George Mason 78
LaSalle 88, Duquesne 73
MWC first round:
Utah St 88, Wyoming 70
UNLV 108, Air Force 102 (3OT)
Colorado St 80, San Jose St 61
CUSA second round:
Western Kentucky 84, North Texas 76
Old Dominion 72, Florida Atlantic 46
Charlotte 79, Rice 69
UTEP 85, Florida International 77
SWAC quarterfinals:
Mississippi Valley St 64, Alcorn St 61
Texas Southern 77, Alabama A&M 69
MEAC quarterfinals:
Hampton 83, Morgan St 81
Norfolk St 66, North Carolina Central 47
Southland first round:
SE Louisiana 84, New Orleans 74
Nicholls St 94, McNeese St 90 (2OT)
Holy Cross 59, Lehigh 56
Big East first round:
Georgetown 70, DePaul 53
Marquette 101, St John's 93
Big 12 first round:
Kansas St 75, Oklahoma 71
TCU 67, Texas Tech 62 - the plot thickens
ACC second round:
Duke 92, NC State 89
Pittsburgh 72, Syracuse 71 - I think Pitt should be fine, I was aggressive on their seed to begin with though. Syracuse is a legit bubble team, though
Georgia Tech 88, Clemson 85 (OT) - that might've popped Clemson's NIT bubble
Virginia Tech 96, Florida St 85 - I love it when longshot bubble teams make my job easy
Pac-12 first round:
Washington 91, Stanford 68 - Stanford is a true NIT bubble team; Washington needs much more but this is a start
Colorado 80, Washington St 56
USC 95, UCLA 71 - disaster avoided across the board in the Pac-12
Oregon St 75, Arizona St 66
B1G first round:
Illinois 85, Minnesota 52
Nebraska 89, Rutgers 72
SEC first round:
Tennessee 97, Auburn 59
A-10 first round:
St Louis 83, George Mason 78
LaSalle 88, Duquesne 73
MWC first round:
Utah St 88, Wyoming 70
UNLV 108, Air Force 102 (3OT)
Colorado St 80, San Jose St 61
CUSA second round:
Western Kentucky 84, North Texas 76
Old Dominion 72, Florida Atlantic 46
Charlotte 79, Rice 69
UTEP 85, Florida International 77
SWAC quarterfinals:
Mississippi Valley St 64, Alcorn St 61
Texas Southern 77, Alabama A&M 69
MEAC quarterfinals:
Hampton 83, Morgan St 81
Norfolk St 66, North Carolina Central 47
Southland first round:
SE Louisiana 84, New Orleans 74
Nicholls St 94, McNeese St 90 (2OT)
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
Big West conference tournament preview
This is part 30 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Hawaii 13-3 (24-5)
UC-Irvine 13-3 (24-8)
Long Beach St 12-4 (18-13)
UC-Santa Barbara 11-5 (17-12)
UC-Davis 6-10 (11-18)
UC-Riverside 5-11 (14-18)
Cal St-Northridge 5-11 (10-20)
Cal Poly 4-12 (10-19)
Cal St-Fullerton 3-13 (10-19)
Tournament format:
Anaheim hosts from Thursday March 10 to Saturday March 12. No CS-Northridge here.
The matchups:
1) Hawaii vs. 8) Cal St-Fullerton
4) UC-Santa Barbara vs. 5) UC-Davis
2) UC-Irvine vs. 7) Cal Poly
3) Long Beach St vs. 6) UC-Riverside
The stakes:
Don't get fooled by Hawaii's record overall. Poor SoS, RPI in the 90s says what you need to know. You need better than UNI as a signature win. For this reason, they might get buried on the 14 line, although they can move up with enough attrition elsewhere. Based on pure resume, Irvine might be pretty close to even with Hawaii, although they have the same problem, but with a much better SoS. In the end, for the #15 conference, the 13 line seems fair.
The real interesting debate is Irvine and the NIT. I can see an at-large bid there just based on their RPI in the 60s, but it's probably a true bubble case. They do lack that signature win that makes a difference on the NIT bubble.
In past years, both LBSU and UCSB schedule way up and finish below .500 as punishment. This year, they both got their heads above water. And they're top 100 in the RPI. Alas, there's too many losses for them to make the NIT, but they're shoo-ins for the postseason if they want it.
The standings:
Hawaii 13-3 (24-5)
UC-Irvine 13-3 (24-8)
Long Beach St 12-4 (18-13)
UC-Santa Barbara 11-5 (17-12)
UC-Davis 6-10 (11-18)
UC-Riverside 5-11 (14-18)
Cal St-Northridge 5-11 (10-20)
Cal Poly 4-12 (10-19)
Cal St-Fullerton 3-13 (10-19)
Tournament format:
Anaheim hosts from Thursday March 10 to Saturday March 12. No CS-Northridge here.
The matchups:
1) Hawaii vs. 8) Cal St-Fullerton
4) UC-Santa Barbara vs. 5) UC-Davis
2) UC-Irvine vs. 7) Cal Poly
3) Long Beach St vs. 6) UC-Riverside
The stakes:
Don't get fooled by Hawaii's record overall. Poor SoS, RPI in the 90s says what you need to know. You need better than UNI as a signature win. For this reason, they might get buried on the 14 line, although they can move up with enough attrition elsewhere. Based on pure resume, Irvine might be pretty close to even with Hawaii, although they have the same problem, but with a much better SoS. In the end, for the #15 conference, the 13 line seems fair.
The real interesting debate is Irvine and the NIT. I can see an at-large bid there just based on their RPI in the 60s, but it's probably a true bubble case. They do lack that signature win that makes a difference on the NIT bubble.
In past years, both LBSU and UCSB schedule way up and finish below .500 as punishment. This year, they both got their heads above water. And they're top 100 in the RPI. Alas, there's too many losses for them to make the NIT, but they're shoo-ins for the postseason if they want it.
Sun Belt conference tournament preview
This is part 29 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Arkansas-Little Rock 17-3 (27-4)
Louisiana-Monroe 15-5 (19-12)
Texas-Arlington 13-7 (22-9)
Louisiana-Lafayette 12-8 (16-13)
Georgia Southern 10-10 (14-16)
Georgia St 9-11 (16-13)
Texas St 8-12 (14-15)
South Alabama 8-12 (13-18)
Arkansas St 7-13 (11-20)
Appalachian St 7-13 (9-22)
Troy 4-16 (9-22)
Tournament format:
New Orleans from Thursday March 10 to Sunday March 13. Only the top 8 are going, though, and it's the staggered double bye setup for the top two teams. This makes Louisiana-Monroe the last team in the country to begin Championship Week, starting its tournament Saturday afternoon.
The matchups:
1) Arkansas-Little Rock vs. 4/5/8) Louisiana-Lafayette/Georgia Southern/South Alabama
2) Louisiana-Monroe vs. 3/6/7) Texas-Arlington/Georgia St/Texas St
The stakes:
What exactly do you do with UALR? The conference strength (17th) isn't optimal. The non-con SoS is fatal (271). But the two signature road wins (SDSU, Tulsa) have value as does the 13-4 road/neutral mark. In the end, the non-con SoS probably outweights everything else, as unfair as it is that road games at cupcakes kill your resume. They played no teams between 51 and 175 in the non-con, and it's that lack of depth that will kill them. It's a shame, but there's really no other option.
The NIT is probably beyond reach of ULM or UTA, but they deserve some kind of postseason. It's a shame for UTA they couldn't hang in the bubble race for longer. Deeper down, ULL is a postseason bubble team but probably deserves a bid, while Georgia St should probably be on the other side of that bubble.
The standings:
Arkansas-Little Rock 17-3 (27-4)
Louisiana-Monroe 15-5 (19-12)
Texas-Arlington 13-7 (22-9)
Louisiana-Lafayette 12-8 (16-13)
Georgia Southern 10-10 (14-16)
Georgia St 9-11 (16-13)
Texas St 8-12 (14-15)
South Alabama 8-12 (13-18)
Arkansas St 7-13 (11-20)
Appalachian St 7-13 (9-22)
Troy 4-16 (9-22)
Tournament format:
New Orleans from Thursday March 10 to Sunday March 13. Only the top 8 are going, though, and it's the staggered double bye setup for the top two teams. This makes Louisiana-Monroe the last team in the country to begin Championship Week, starting its tournament Saturday afternoon.
The matchups:
1) Arkansas-Little Rock vs. 4/5/8) Louisiana-Lafayette/Georgia Southern/South Alabama
2) Louisiana-Monroe vs. 3/6/7) Texas-Arlington/Georgia St/Texas St
The stakes:
What exactly do you do with UALR? The conference strength (17th) isn't optimal. The non-con SoS is fatal (271). But the two signature road wins (SDSU, Tulsa) have value as does the 13-4 road/neutral mark. In the end, the non-con SoS probably outweights everything else, as unfair as it is that road games at cupcakes kill your resume. They played no teams between 51 and 175 in the non-con, and it's that lack of depth that will kill them. It's a shame, but there's really no other option.
The NIT is probably beyond reach of ULM or UTA, but they deserve some kind of postseason. It's a shame for UTA they couldn't hang in the bubble race for longer. Deeper down, ULL is a postseason bubble team but probably deserves a bid, while Georgia St should probably be on the other side of that bubble.
AAC conference tournament preview
This is part 28 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Temple 14-4 (20-10)
SMU 13-5 (25-5)
Houston 12-6 (22-8)
Tulsa 12-6 (20-10)
Cincinnati 12-6 (22-9)
UConn 11-7 (21-10)
Memphis 8-10 (17-14)
Central Florida 6-12 (12-17)
East Carolina 4-14 (12-19)
South Florida 4-14 (7-24)
Tulane 3-15 (10-21)
Tournament format:
Poor SMU. Everyone else heads to Orlando from Thursday March 10 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Temple vs. 8/9) East Carolina/South Florida
4) Cincinnati vs. 5) UConn
2) Houston vs. 7/10) Central Florida/Tulane
3) Tulsa vs. 6) Memphis
The stakes:
Everyone's on the bubble, so let's look from simplest case to most complex.
Tulsa - disaster for Tulsa. All the other bubble teams are on the other side of the bracket. Therefore, they can't pick up a quality win without actually winning the tournament. They're likely going to have to get to the final, and even that probably won't be enough. On a similar vein, there was an outside chance Houston could work its way to the bubble if it had a Cincy/Temple/Tulsa path. Instead, they have no shot. The luck of the draw has doomed Tulsa and Houston from runs at at-large bids.
I'm starting to think Cincy and UConn is a play-in game for sure. The winner should be fine, unless something stupid like losing to ECU would follow. How about the loser? Probably a true bubble team. Their profiles are pretty close to even, and there's just enough quality wins on both to give them a good shot. UConn might be better equipped to survive a loss with two high-end wins, but a Cincy loss means they suddenly inherit two extra wins over tournament teams (their two wins against UConn). I wouldn't be surprised to see both make the tourney.
Temple probably has little choice but to get to the finals and pick up that extra quality win in the semifinals. This is where running over the league helps. And some of their tossup losses have become sexy recently (Utah, Wisky, St Joe's all look better than they did two months ago). Can they survive with a semifinal loss? Possibly. True toss-up.
The NIT will grab the leftovers of these 5. Memphis is too far gone for that tournament.
The standings:
Temple 14-4 (20-10)
SMU 13-5 (25-5)
Houston 12-6 (22-8)
Tulsa 12-6 (20-10)
Cincinnati 12-6 (22-9)
UConn 11-7 (21-10)
Memphis 8-10 (17-14)
Central Florida 6-12 (12-17)
East Carolina 4-14 (12-19)
South Florida 4-14 (7-24)
Tulane 3-15 (10-21)
Tournament format:
Poor SMU. Everyone else heads to Orlando from Thursday March 10 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Temple vs. 8/9) East Carolina/South Florida
4) Cincinnati vs. 5) UConn
2) Houston vs. 7/10) Central Florida/Tulane
3) Tulsa vs. 6) Memphis
The stakes:
Everyone's on the bubble, so let's look from simplest case to most complex.
Tulsa - disaster for Tulsa. All the other bubble teams are on the other side of the bracket. Therefore, they can't pick up a quality win without actually winning the tournament. They're likely going to have to get to the final, and even that probably won't be enough. On a similar vein, there was an outside chance Houston could work its way to the bubble if it had a Cincy/Temple/Tulsa path. Instead, they have no shot. The luck of the draw has doomed Tulsa and Houston from runs at at-large bids.
I'm starting to think Cincy and UConn is a play-in game for sure. The winner should be fine, unless something stupid like losing to ECU would follow. How about the loser? Probably a true bubble team. Their profiles are pretty close to even, and there's just enough quality wins on both to give them a good shot. UConn might be better equipped to survive a loss with two high-end wins, but a Cincy loss means they suddenly inherit two extra wins over tournament teams (their two wins against UConn). I wouldn't be surprised to see both make the tourney.
Temple probably has little choice but to get to the finals and pick up that extra quality win in the semifinals. This is where running over the league helps. And some of their tossup losses have become sexy recently (Utah, Wisky, St Joe's all look better than they did two months ago). Can they survive with a semifinal loss? Possibly. True toss-up.
The NIT will grab the leftovers of these 5. Memphis is too far gone for that tournament.
3/9 S-CURVE
The 1 line: Kansas (26-4), Villanova (27-4), Virginia (24-6), Michiagn St (26-5)
The 2 line: North Carolina (25-6), Oklahoma (24-6), Xavier (26-4), Oregon (24-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (24-7), Miami (24-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (23-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Duke (22-9), Purdue (24-7)
The 5 line: Texas (20-11), Iowa St (21-10), Texas A&M (24-7), Arizona (24-7)
The 6 line: Iowa (21-9), Baylor (20-10), California (22-9), Notre Dame (20-10)
The 7 line: Dayton (24-6), Wisconsin (20-11), Seton Hall (22-8), Colorado (20-10)
The 8 line: Providence (22-9), Texas Tech (19-11), USC (20-11), St Bonaventure (22-7)
The 9 line: Butler (21-9), South Carolina (23-7), Pittsburgh (19-10), Gonzaga (25-7)
The 10 line: Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7), Syracuse (19-12), Monmouth (27-7)
The 11 line: Vanderbilt (19-12), Cincinnati (22-9), UConn (21-10), Oregon St (17-11), San Diego St (21-8), Temple (20-10)
The 12 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4), Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
The 13 line: Akron (23-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (22-5), Iona (22-10), UAB (25-5), Stephen F Austin (21-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (20-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (17-13), Hampton (17-10), Lehigh (16-14), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14), Austin Peay (16-17)
Next 4 in:
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Syracuse
Monmouth
Last 4 in:
Vanderbilt
Cincinnati
UConn
Oregon St
Last 4 out:
St Mary's
VCU
Michigan
Tulsa
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Florida St
Florida
NIT:
The 1 line: St Mary's (26-5), VCU (22-9), Michigan (19-11), Tulsa (20-10)
The 2 line: Valparaiso (24-6), Hofstra (23-9), Florida St (19-12), Florida (18-13)
The 3 line: Alabama (17-13), George Washington (22-9), Houston (22-8), Washington (17-13)
The 4 line: Georgia Tech (18-13), Ohio St (19-12), BYU (22-10), Creighton (18-13)
The 5 line: Virginia Tech (18-13), Princeton (21-6), William & Mary (18-11), Georgia (17-12)
The 6 line: Stanford (14-14), Fresno St (20-9), LSU (18-13), Boise St (18-11)
The 7 line: UC-Irvine (22-8), Davidson (17-11), IPFW (22-9), Belmont (19-11)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), High Point (18-10), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10)
Last 4 out: Northwestern (20-11), Ole Miss (20-11), Clemson (17-13), Kansas St (16-15)
Next 4 out: Marquette (19-12), Ohio (19-10), James Madison (20-11), Evansville (24-9)
The 2 line: North Carolina (25-6), Oklahoma (24-6), Xavier (26-4), Oregon (24-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (24-7), Miami (24-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (23-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Duke (22-9), Purdue (24-7)
The 5 line: Texas (20-11), Iowa St (21-10), Texas A&M (24-7), Arizona (24-7)
The 6 line: Iowa (21-9), Baylor (20-10), California (22-9), Notre Dame (20-10)
The 7 line: Dayton (24-6), Wisconsin (20-11), Seton Hall (22-8), Colorado (20-10)
The 8 line: Providence (22-9), Texas Tech (19-11), USC (20-11), St Bonaventure (22-7)
The 9 line: Butler (21-9), South Carolina (23-7), Pittsburgh (19-10), Gonzaga (25-7)
The 10 line: Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7), Syracuse (19-12), Monmouth (27-7)
The 11 line: Vanderbilt (19-12), Cincinnati (22-9), UConn (21-10), Oregon St (17-11), San Diego St (21-8), Temple (20-10)
The 12 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4), Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (24-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7)
The 13 line: Akron (23-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (22-5), Iona (22-10), UAB (25-5), Stephen F Austin (21-5)
The 15 line: Green Bay (21-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (20-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (17-13), Hampton (17-10), Lehigh (16-14), FGCU (16-13), Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14), Austin Peay (16-17)
Next 4 in:
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Syracuse
Monmouth
Last 4 in:
Vanderbilt
Cincinnati
UConn
Oregon St
Last 4 out:
St Mary's
VCU
Michigan
Tulsa
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Hofstra
Florida St
Florida
NIT:
The 1 line: St Mary's (26-5), VCU (22-9), Michigan (19-11), Tulsa (20-10)
The 2 line: Valparaiso (24-6), Hofstra (23-9), Florida St (19-12), Florida (18-13)
The 3 line: Alabama (17-13), George Washington (22-9), Houston (22-8), Washington (17-13)
The 4 line: Georgia Tech (18-13), Ohio St (19-12), BYU (22-10), Creighton (18-13)
The 5 line: Virginia Tech (18-13), Princeton (21-6), William & Mary (18-11), Georgia (17-12)
The 6 line: Stanford (14-14), Fresno St (20-9), LSU (18-13), Boise St (18-11)
The 7 line: UC-Irvine (22-8), Davidson (17-11), IPFW (22-9), Belmont (19-11)
The 8 line: Bucknell (16-13), High Point (18-10), North Florida (19-11), Wagner (21-10)
Last 4 out: Northwestern (20-11), Ole Miss (20-11), Clemson (17-13), Kansas St (16-15)
Next 4 out: Marquette (19-12), Ohio (19-10), James Madison (20-11), Evansville (24-9)
3/8 recap
WCC finals:
Gonzaga 85, St Mary's 75 - St Mary's profile strength was a lack of losses more than anything else. This is a real toss-up now
Summit finals:
South Dakota St 67, North Dakota St 59
Horizon finals:
Green Bay 78, Wright St 69
Northeast finals:
Fairleigh Dickinson 87, Wagner 79
ACC first round:
North Carolina St 75, Wake Forest 72
Florida St 88, Boston College 66
CUSA first round:
Florida Atlantic 82, Texas-San Antonio 58
Big Sky first round:
Portland St 74, Northern Colorado 67
North Dakota 85, Southern Utah 80
Sacramento St 79, Montana St 75
Eastern Washington 74, Northern Arizona 52
MEAC first round:
Morgan St 65, Maryland-Eastern Shore 58
North Carolina Central 68, Howard 66
SWAC first round:
Mississippi Valley St 87, Grambling St 73
Alabama A&M 61, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53
NITWatch: Princeton barely over Penn...a very interesting test case for the NIT has emerged
Gonzaga 85, St Mary's 75 - St Mary's profile strength was a lack of losses more than anything else. This is a real toss-up now
Summit finals:
South Dakota St 67, North Dakota St 59
Horizon finals:
Green Bay 78, Wright St 69
Northeast finals:
Fairleigh Dickinson 87, Wagner 79
ACC first round:
North Carolina St 75, Wake Forest 72
Florida St 88, Boston College 66
CUSA first round:
Florida Atlantic 82, Texas-San Antonio 58
Big Sky first round:
Portland St 74, Northern Colorado 67
North Dakota 85, Southern Utah 80
Sacramento St 79, Montana St 75
Eastern Washington 74, Northern Arizona 52
MEAC first round:
Morgan St 65, Maryland-Eastern Shore 58
North Carolina Central 68, Howard 66
SWAC first round:
Mississippi Valley St 87, Grambling St 73
Alabama A&M 61, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53
NITWatch: Princeton barely over Penn...a very interesting test case for the NIT has emerged
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
Southland conference tournament preview
This is part 27 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Stephen F Austin 18-0 (25-5)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 15-3 (24-6)
Sam Houston St 12-6 (17-14)
Incarnate Word 12-6 (17-12)
Houston Baptist 10-8 (16-15)
SE Louisiana 9-9 (11-20)
Abilene Christian 8-10 (13-18)
McNeese St 7-11 (9-19)
Nicholls St 6-12 (10-22)
New Orleans 6-12 (10-19)
Central Arkansas 6-12 (7-21)
Northwestern St 5-13 (8-20)
Lamar 3-15 (11-19)
Tournament format:
Ok, lots of info here. Katy, Texas hosts. Only the top 8 teams go. Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are ineligible (still transitioning to D1). Central Arkansas is APR'd.
The bracket is double bye'd. The top 2 seeds have byes to the semis and the 3/4 seeds have a single bye. Wednesday March 9 to Saturday March 12.
The matchups:
1) Stephen F Austin vs. 4/5/8) Houston Baptist/SE Louisiana/New Orleans
2) Texas A&M-Corpus Christia vs. 3/6/7) Sam Houston St/McNeese St/Nicholls St
The stakes:
This conference was not good, skating down to 29th in the conference RPI. It's going to kill the seed of any conference champ, although both TAMU-CC and SFA did enough individually to avoid Dayton, and the 16 line for that matter. SFA does not have the type of resume it's had in previous years, so they'll be trapped pretty far back in the S-Curve. You can safely pencil them and TAMU-CC for the 15 line, and anyone else for Dayton.
There's a staggering 8 teams that are sub-300 RPI. How is that even possible. Sam Houston St and Incarnate Word are in the mid 100s in RPI, which is a downright miracle, and might get both into the postseason, at least. But man, it's a wasteland behind the top 4. Another reason why SFA's seed will get killed.
The standings:
Stephen F Austin 18-0 (25-5)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 15-3 (24-6)
Sam Houston St 12-6 (17-14)
Incarnate Word 12-6 (17-12)
Houston Baptist 10-8 (16-15)
SE Louisiana 9-9 (11-20)
Abilene Christian 8-10 (13-18)
McNeese St 7-11 (9-19)
Nicholls St 6-12 (10-22)
New Orleans 6-12 (10-19)
Central Arkansas 6-12 (7-21)
Northwestern St 5-13 (8-20)
Lamar 3-15 (11-19)
Tournament format:
Ok, lots of info here. Katy, Texas hosts. Only the top 8 teams go. Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are ineligible (still transitioning to D1). Central Arkansas is APR'd.
The bracket is double bye'd. The top 2 seeds have byes to the semis and the 3/4 seeds have a single bye. Wednesday March 9 to Saturday March 12.
The matchups:
1) Stephen F Austin vs. 4/5/8) Houston Baptist/SE Louisiana/New Orleans
2) Texas A&M-Corpus Christia vs. 3/6/7) Sam Houston St/McNeese St/Nicholls St
The stakes:
This conference was not good, skating down to 29th in the conference RPI. It's going to kill the seed of any conference champ, although both TAMU-CC and SFA did enough individually to avoid Dayton, and the 16 line for that matter. SFA does not have the type of resume it's had in previous years, so they'll be trapped pretty far back in the S-Curve. You can safely pencil them and TAMU-CC for the 15 line, and anyone else for Dayton.
There's a staggering 8 teams that are sub-300 RPI. How is that even possible. Sam Houston St and Incarnate Word are in the mid 100s in RPI, which is a downright miracle, and might get both into the postseason, at least. But man, it's a wasteland behind the top 4. Another reason why SFA's seed will get killed.
A-10 conference tournament preview
This is part 26 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Dayton 14-4 (24-6)
VCU 14-4 (22-9)
St Bonaventure 14-4 (22-7)
St Joseph's 13-5 (24-7)
George Washington 11-7 (22-9)
Davidson 10-8 (18-11)
Rhode Island 9-9 (17-14)
Fordham 8-10 (17-12)
Richmond 7-11 (15-15)
UMass 6-12 (13-17)
Duquesne 6-12 (16-15)
George Mason 5-13 (11-20)
St Louis 5-13 (10-20)
LaSalle 4-14 (8-21)
Tournament format:
Brooklyn. All 14 teams from Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Dayton vs. 8/9) Fordham/Richmond
4) St Joseph's vs. 5/12/13) George Washington/George Mason/St Louis
2) VCU vs. 7/10) Rhode Island/UMass
3) St Bonaventure vs. 6/11/14) Davidson/Duquesne/LaSalle
The stakes:
Dayton is playing for seeding, and there's too many variables with teams around them that analysis via the written word is a bit tough. Just know they can be as high as 4 or as low as 11, to be quite honest.
Let's tackle the three bubble teams one at a time. St Joe's. Bad loss avoidance right until the end when they finally took one to Duquesne. Solid metrics across the board, no weak links. Of course, the tradeoff is the 5 Top 100 wins aren't the greatest. I think they get in with bad loss avoidance...and with George Washington looming, they might not even get a chance to pick up a damaging loss. While they're not outstanding, they lack the red flag that the committee likes to use to keep teams out. SoS is fine. Road/neutral is more than fine.
St Bonaventure has mostly erased their non-con sins. It's a weird resume in that it's loaded with good but not great teams. Beat Buffalo, Ohio, Vermont, lose to Hofstra, Syracuse, Siena. But the pile of conference wins is good. Here's another case where I think it's more important to have bad loss avoidance than anything else, and even Davidson wouldn't hurt them too much. I think they're okay too, but just win that quarterfinal game to be sure, k?
VCU is a little behind, IMO. They have basically the same resume as the two Saints, minus one key component: a signature win over a sure tourney team. Now, yes, that team is Dayton in both cases, but still. VCU lacks that win over a sure tourney team, even though they beat both Bonaventure and Joseph head to head. That seems insane on the surface, but yeah. VCU beat both Saints and are right behind them in the S-Curve. Being on the opposite side of Dayton hurts here...I wouldn't chance losing to Bonaventure in the semis if I were VCU. It's a delicate situation for VCU because their resume is in line with the two Saints, minus that signature win.
George Washington is a bit further off the pace. Would beating St Joe's be enough? Doubtful, but possible. St Joe's plus Dayton? Now we're talking. That might very well do it.
The NIT will have a decision with Davidson, who has the RPI but not much else working for it in the resume. I think they'll squeak in, and the door will close in front of URI. We'll see if anyone plays in another tourney. I doubt the likes of Richmond or URI would turn out, but I could see Fordham or Duquesne opt in.
The standings:
Dayton 14-4 (24-6)
VCU 14-4 (22-9)
St Bonaventure 14-4 (22-7)
St Joseph's 13-5 (24-7)
George Washington 11-7 (22-9)
Davidson 10-8 (18-11)
Rhode Island 9-9 (17-14)
Fordham 8-10 (17-12)
Richmond 7-11 (15-15)
UMass 6-12 (13-17)
Duquesne 6-12 (16-15)
George Mason 5-13 (11-20)
St Louis 5-13 (10-20)
LaSalle 4-14 (8-21)
Tournament format:
Brooklyn. All 14 teams from Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Dayton vs. 8/9) Fordham/Richmond
4) St Joseph's vs. 5/12/13) George Washington/George Mason/St Louis
2) VCU vs. 7/10) Rhode Island/UMass
3) St Bonaventure vs. 6/11/14) Davidson/Duquesne/LaSalle
The stakes:
Dayton is playing for seeding, and there's too many variables with teams around them that analysis via the written word is a bit tough. Just know they can be as high as 4 or as low as 11, to be quite honest.
Let's tackle the three bubble teams one at a time. St Joe's. Bad loss avoidance right until the end when they finally took one to Duquesne. Solid metrics across the board, no weak links. Of course, the tradeoff is the 5 Top 100 wins aren't the greatest. I think they get in with bad loss avoidance...and with George Washington looming, they might not even get a chance to pick up a damaging loss. While they're not outstanding, they lack the red flag that the committee likes to use to keep teams out. SoS is fine. Road/neutral is more than fine.
St Bonaventure has mostly erased their non-con sins. It's a weird resume in that it's loaded with good but not great teams. Beat Buffalo, Ohio, Vermont, lose to Hofstra, Syracuse, Siena. But the pile of conference wins is good. Here's another case where I think it's more important to have bad loss avoidance than anything else, and even Davidson wouldn't hurt them too much. I think they're okay too, but just win that quarterfinal game to be sure, k?
VCU is a little behind, IMO. They have basically the same resume as the two Saints, minus one key component: a signature win over a sure tourney team. Now, yes, that team is Dayton in both cases, but still. VCU lacks that win over a sure tourney team, even though they beat both Bonaventure and Joseph head to head. That seems insane on the surface, but yeah. VCU beat both Saints and are right behind them in the S-Curve. Being on the opposite side of Dayton hurts here...I wouldn't chance losing to Bonaventure in the semis if I were VCU. It's a delicate situation for VCU because their resume is in line with the two Saints, minus that signature win.
George Washington is a bit further off the pace. Would beating St Joe's be enough? Doubtful, but possible. St Joe's plus Dayton? Now we're talking. That might very well do it.
The NIT will have a decision with Davidson, who has the RPI but not much else working for it in the resume. I think they'll squeak in, and the door will close in front of URI. We'll see if anyone plays in another tourney. I doubt the likes of Richmond or URI would turn out, but I could see Fordham or Duquesne opt in.
SEC conference tournament preview
This is part 25 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Texas A&M 13-5 (24-7)
Kentucky 13-5 (23-8)
South Carolina 11-7 (24-7)
LSU 11-7 (18-13)
Vanderbilt 11-7 (19-12)
Ole Miss 10-8 (20-11)
Georgia 10-8 (17-12)
Florida 9-9 (18-13)
Arkansas 9-9 (16-15)
Alabama 8-10 (17-13)
Mississippi St 7-11 (14-16)
Tennessee 6-12 (13-18)
Auburn 5-13 (11-19)
Missouri 3-15 (10-21)
Tournament format:
Everyone but Mizzou heads to Nashville. Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Texas A&M vs. 8/9) Florida/Arkansas
4) LSU vs. 5/12/13) Vanderbilt/Tennessee/Auburn
2) Kentucky vs. 7/10) Ole Miss/Alabama
3) South Carolina vs. 6/11) Georgia/Mississippi St
The stakes:
Kentucky and A&M play for protected seeding, but it almost feels like their seed will merely be a result of a chain reaction of results from other conferences. There's no win in this conference available to either, before the finals, that would move the needle. And with a Sunday finish, the final ends too close to the selection show; therefore a quality win by one over the other will be ignored. They're simply going to take whatever is available after teams around them play their impact games.
South Carolina has one bullet to dodge, then a loss to Kentucky would be acceptable for them. The real danger could be if Kentucky loses, then South Carolina has to win twice to avoid serious profile damage. They'll get away with an ugly non-con SoS with just enough bad loss avoidance.
The bubble gets a bit messy. Vandy has to play an extra game and then gets a no-win proposition with LSU. Winning that game is probably mandatory, then a loss to A&M wouldn't hurt them and they'd be home free. I'm really not a fan of the profile, though, it relies on two home wins over the two conference leaders. They could easily miss, even if they beat LSU, so stay tuned.
Florida's trapped itself in an awful spot - they need a quality win to get back to the right side of the bubble, and they have to win twice and beat A&M to do it. Good news? That win could be enough. Bad news? That's not an easy win to get. Alabama's in the same situation, with Kentucky in their way instead. However, Alabama might even need another win on top of that. Bottom line: the lack of depth in the conference is going to hurt these teams trying to play their way up. Resumes are flawed because of the number of losses. To be fair, they did schedule up. Imagine how much worse the situation would be without the overall SoS boost everyone is providing each other.
LSU is so far gone from the bubble that Vandy+A&M won't be enough, and a loss to Vandy brings the NIT bubble into play. In fact, the NIT bubble as a whole could be a mess. As it stands, you'd have Florida and Alabama going there, and maybe Vandy, and probably LSU, and Georgia is squarely in the middle of the NIT field. That's 4, maybe 5 teams in the NIT already and we've got a 20-win Ole Miss team and a .500 Arkansas team to deal with too. how many of these teams can get in? With that in mind, I think Arkansas and Ole Miss are definitely out (even beating Kentucky or A&M won't be enough), and one of LSU and Georgia will be a legit bubble team. Right now I think that's advantage LSU over Georgia.
The standings:
Texas A&M 13-5 (24-7)
Kentucky 13-5 (23-8)
South Carolina 11-7 (24-7)
LSU 11-7 (18-13)
Vanderbilt 11-7 (19-12)
Ole Miss 10-8 (20-11)
Georgia 10-8 (17-12)
Florida 9-9 (18-13)
Arkansas 9-9 (16-15)
Alabama 8-10 (17-13)
Mississippi St 7-11 (14-16)
Tennessee 6-12 (13-18)
Auburn 5-13 (11-19)
Missouri 3-15 (10-21)
Tournament format:
Everyone but Mizzou heads to Nashville. Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Texas A&M vs. 8/9) Florida/Arkansas
4) LSU vs. 5/12/13) Vanderbilt/Tennessee/Auburn
2) Kentucky vs. 7/10) Ole Miss/Alabama
3) South Carolina vs. 6/11) Georgia/Mississippi St
The stakes:
Kentucky and A&M play for protected seeding, but it almost feels like their seed will merely be a result of a chain reaction of results from other conferences. There's no win in this conference available to either, before the finals, that would move the needle. And with a Sunday finish, the final ends too close to the selection show; therefore a quality win by one over the other will be ignored. They're simply going to take whatever is available after teams around them play their impact games.
South Carolina has one bullet to dodge, then a loss to Kentucky would be acceptable for them. The real danger could be if Kentucky loses, then South Carolina has to win twice to avoid serious profile damage. They'll get away with an ugly non-con SoS with just enough bad loss avoidance.
The bubble gets a bit messy. Vandy has to play an extra game and then gets a no-win proposition with LSU. Winning that game is probably mandatory, then a loss to A&M wouldn't hurt them and they'd be home free. I'm really not a fan of the profile, though, it relies on two home wins over the two conference leaders. They could easily miss, even if they beat LSU, so stay tuned.
Florida's trapped itself in an awful spot - they need a quality win to get back to the right side of the bubble, and they have to win twice and beat A&M to do it. Good news? That win could be enough. Bad news? That's not an easy win to get. Alabama's in the same situation, with Kentucky in their way instead. However, Alabama might even need another win on top of that. Bottom line: the lack of depth in the conference is going to hurt these teams trying to play their way up. Resumes are flawed because of the number of losses. To be fair, they did schedule up. Imagine how much worse the situation would be without the overall SoS boost everyone is providing each other.
LSU is so far gone from the bubble that Vandy+A&M won't be enough, and a loss to Vandy brings the NIT bubble into play. In fact, the NIT bubble as a whole could be a mess. As it stands, you'd have Florida and Alabama going there, and maybe Vandy, and probably LSU, and Georgia is squarely in the middle of the NIT field. That's 4, maybe 5 teams in the NIT already and we've got a 20-win Ole Miss team and a .500 Arkansas team to deal with too. how many of these teams can get in? With that in mind, I think Arkansas and Ole Miss are definitely out (even beating Kentucky or A&M won't be enough), and one of LSU and Georgia will be a legit bubble team. Right now I think that's advantage LSU over Georgia.
Pac-12 conference tournament preview
This is part 24 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Oregon 14-4 (25-6)
Utah 13-5 (24-7)
California 12-6 (22-9)
Arizona 12-6 (24-7)
Colorado 10-8 (21-10)
Oregon St 9-9 (18-11)
USC 9-9 (20-11)
Washington 9-9 (17-13)
Stanford 8-10 (15-14)
UCLA 6-12 (15-16)
Arizona St 4-13 (15-16)
Washington St 1-17 (9-21)
Tournament format:
Vegas. Wednesday March 9 to Saturday March 12. Bill Walton figures to be prominently involved.
The matchups:
1) Oregon vs. 8/9) Washington/Stanford
4) Arizona vs. 5/12) Colorado/Washington St
2) Utah vs. 7/10) USC/UCLA
3) California vs. 6/11) Oregon St/Arizona St
The stakes:
Can Oregon get to the 1 line? Nah. They absorbed a couple too many body blows. They're mostly playing to stay on the 2 line. However, does it even matter? Thanks to geography, they're a lock to play in Spokane. And when I did my brackets, the chances of Oregon playing in the west regional actually increased when they were a top 3 seed instead of the last 2 seed. The reason being, as the last 2 seed, they got last priority for geography, and conference conflicts moved them around. As the top 3 seed, they are more likely to get the west regional as their priority. Therefore, winning this tournament might actually get Oregon shipped away from the west regional. Go figure.
Can Utah get to the 2 line? Possible, especially if they get Cal and Oregon as scalps. More likely they're competing to stay on the 3 line, although again, remember the east-west balance this year. It just might not matter much where Utah exactly falls.
Arizona and Cal are reasonable candidates for a 4 seed if they get one signature win (or two). However, both have a glaring red flag (Arizona's non-con SoS; Cal's road record). They don't stack up well compared to, say, the Iowa St/Texas/Baylor grouping from the Big 12, or Purdue/Iowa, or perhaps A&M. While they're in that 4-6 range, one bad loss could really be damaging and send them towards the bottom of a tier at the 7 line.
Colorado is a lock, USC is a lock. I'd rather neith lose their layup first game to make things easy on me. They could do big damage to their seeds.
Oregon St is your bubble team. Do they need to get past Cal? They've got 5 conference wins over legit tourney teams, but all are home. They could really use that neutral site boon. They have the feel of a classic Good Bad team that wins the quality games at home and loses the quality games on the road. My hunch is the wins elevate the profile, but it's a true tossup if they lose to Cal.
I think Washington has absorbed too many body blows. Now, beating Oregon and Arizona can change that, but we'll wait for that to happen before we talk. Stanford has 12 top 35 losses. That's almost impossible to do. Too many body blows here too, even if they run out to the finals. I think. Only 2 true road wins makes things unmanageable.
Remember back in January when 11 of the 12 teams were legit contenders? Someone had to absorb losses for the betterment of the group, and that task fell upon UCLA and Arizona St. No postseason for them.
The standings:
Oregon 14-4 (25-6)
Utah 13-5 (24-7)
California 12-6 (22-9)
Arizona 12-6 (24-7)
Colorado 10-8 (21-10)
Oregon St 9-9 (18-11)
USC 9-9 (20-11)
Washington 9-9 (17-13)
Stanford 8-10 (15-14)
UCLA 6-12 (15-16)
Arizona St 4-13 (15-16)
Washington St 1-17 (9-21)
Tournament format:
Vegas. Wednesday March 9 to Saturday March 12. Bill Walton figures to be prominently involved.
The matchups:
1) Oregon vs. 8/9) Washington/Stanford
4) Arizona vs. 5/12) Colorado/Washington St
2) Utah vs. 7/10) USC/UCLA
3) California vs. 6/11) Oregon St/Arizona St
The stakes:
Can Oregon get to the 1 line? Nah. They absorbed a couple too many body blows. They're mostly playing to stay on the 2 line. However, does it even matter? Thanks to geography, they're a lock to play in Spokane. And when I did my brackets, the chances of Oregon playing in the west regional actually increased when they were a top 3 seed instead of the last 2 seed. The reason being, as the last 2 seed, they got last priority for geography, and conference conflicts moved them around. As the top 3 seed, they are more likely to get the west regional as their priority. Therefore, winning this tournament might actually get Oregon shipped away from the west regional. Go figure.
Can Utah get to the 2 line? Possible, especially if they get Cal and Oregon as scalps. More likely they're competing to stay on the 3 line, although again, remember the east-west balance this year. It just might not matter much where Utah exactly falls.
Arizona and Cal are reasonable candidates for a 4 seed if they get one signature win (or two). However, both have a glaring red flag (Arizona's non-con SoS; Cal's road record). They don't stack up well compared to, say, the Iowa St/Texas/Baylor grouping from the Big 12, or Purdue/Iowa, or perhaps A&M. While they're in that 4-6 range, one bad loss could really be damaging and send them towards the bottom of a tier at the 7 line.
Colorado is a lock, USC is a lock. I'd rather neith lose their layup first game to make things easy on me. They could do big damage to their seeds.
Oregon St is your bubble team. Do they need to get past Cal? They've got 5 conference wins over legit tourney teams, but all are home. They could really use that neutral site boon. They have the feel of a classic Good Bad team that wins the quality games at home and loses the quality games on the road. My hunch is the wins elevate the profile, but it's a true tossup if they lose to Cal.
I think Washington has absorbed too many body blows. Now, beating Oregon and Arizona can change that, but we'll wait for that to happen before we talk. Stanford has 12 top 35 losses. That's almost impossible to do. Too many body blows here too, even if they run out to the finals. I think. Only 2 true road wins makes things unmanageable.
Remember back in January when 11 of the 12 teams were legit contenders? Someone had to absorb losses for the betterment of the group, and that task fell upon UCLA and Arizona St. No postseason for them.
Big 10 conference tournament preview
This is part 23 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Indiana 15-3 (25-6)
Michigan St 13-5 (26-5)
Maryland 12-6 (24-7)
Purdue 12-6 (24-7)
Iowa 12-6 (21-9)
Wisconsin 12-6 (20-11)
Ohio St 11-7 (19-12)
Michigan 10-8 (20-11)
Northwestern 8-10 (20-11)
Penn St 7-11 (16-15)
Nebraska 6-12 (14-17)
Illinois 5-13 (13-18)
Minnesota 2-16 (8-22)
Rutgers 1-17 (7-24)
Tournament format:
Indianapolis, from Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13. Scheduled end of the title game is the scheduled beginning of the selection show. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU CBS AND NCAA WHY DON'T YOU DEMAND A ONE OR TWO HOUR LAYOVER. IT IS INSANE TO EXPECT THE COMMITTEE TO TURN OVER A BRACKET IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FINAL GAME IS PLAYED; THIS IS HOW BAD SEEDS AND BAD BRACKETS HAPPEN OH MY GOD rant over.
The matchups:
1) Indiana vs. 8/9) Michigan/Northwestern
4) Purdue vs. 5/12/13) Iowa/Illinois/Minnesota
2) Michigan St vs. 7/10) Ohio St/Penn St
3) Maryland vs. 6/11/14) Wisconsin/Nebraska/Rutgers
The stakes:
Michigan St has everything they need for the 1 seed except for Indiana ruining everything. Well, maybe a better non-con SoS too. But they need a conference crown to buttress the resume, or the 1 seed will disappear. This has the nasty effect of making the selection committee draw contingencies, because Michigan St is likely a 1 seed with the title and likely a 2 or 3 seed without. Aargh.
Indiana has moved into a default position ahead of Maryland/Purdue on the S-Curve with their title, but their non-con SoS is marginal, probably leaving them with too much ground between them and the 1 line. The 2 line is definitely doable though. It's probably not quite safe to say they're definitively ahead of Maryland and Purdue; either can jump Indiana with a title here. However, their cases for the 2 line are a bit more tenuous, even if they play the best possible opponents on the way through. It's quite likely these three teams will end up on the 3 or 4 line apiece, with maybe a stray 5 seed. Strong enough to avoid the flawed teams on the 6-7 lines, not strong enough for the 2 line. And the order of these teams are very variable, still.
Iowa's kinda fallen a half-step behind those three. I wouldn't discount their chances of getting back into the middle of the Maryland/Purdue/Indiana battle, but I no longer think they can come out on top of all 3 of them. Iowa/Purdue is going to go a long ways towards solving things, and Indiana playing the winner could make things very solvent. Maryland being trapped on the other side of the draw complicates things.
Wisconsin is in the lockbox, but they're another half-step behind Iowa with those ugly losses. I can maybe buy a 4 seed, but, man, with those losses I just can't go higher, even if they go on a Maryland/MSU/Indiana run.
Michigan's your one bubble team, and they wound up in a tough but great spot. Once they beat Northwestern, it's probably a win-and-in game with Indiana. In a perfect world, they'd have a more beatable opponent like Wisky that can help the resume, but them's the breaks. Beat Indiana and you're probably in, lose and you're probably out.
Ohio St needs multiple big wins to have a chance, and, well, at least Michigan St and Maryland line up for them. Get those two and we'll have a discussion.
I think Ohio St is the only NIT team from here. Northwestern is next up but the resume is too thin. Penn St out as well. Perhaps one or more consider Vegas or the CBI.
The standings:
Indiana 15-3 (25-6)
Michigan St 13-5 (26-5)
Maryland 12-6 (24-7)
Purdue 12-6 (24-7)
Iowa 12-6 (21-9)
Wisconsin 12-6 (20-11)
Ohio St 11-7 (19-12)
Michigan 10-8 (20-11)
Northwestern 8-10 (20-11)
Penn St 7-11 (16-15)
Nebraska 6-12 (14-17)
Illinois 5-13 (13-18)
Minnesota 2-16 (8-22)
Rutgers 1-17 (7-24)
Tournament format:
Indianapolis, from Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13. Scheduled end of the title game is the scheduled beginning of the selection show. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU CBS AND NCAA WHY DON'T YOU DEMAND A ONE OR TWO HOUR LAYOVER. IT IS INSANE TO EXPECT THE COMMITTEE TO TURN OVER A BRACKET IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FINAL GAME IS PLAYED; THIS IS HOW BAD SEEDS AND BAD BRACKETS HAPPEN OH MY GOD rant over.
The matchups:
1) Indiana vs. 8/9) Michigan/Northwestern
4) Purdue vs. 5/12/13) Iowa/Illinois/Minnesota
2) Michigan St vs. 7/10) Ohio St/Penn St
3) Maryland vs. 6/11/14) Wisconsin/Nebraska/Rutgers
The stakes:
Michigan St has everything they need for the 1 seed except for Indiana ruining everything. Well, maybe a better non-con SoS too. But they need a conference crown to buttress the resume, or the 1 seed will disappear. This has the nasty effect of making the selection committee draw contingencies, because Michigan St is likely a 1 seed with the title and likely a 2 or 3 seed without. Aargh.
Indiana has moved into a default position ahead of Maryland/Purdue on the S-Curve with their title, but their non-con SoS is marginal, probably leaving them with too much ground between them and the 1 line. The 2 line is definitely doable though. It's probably not quite safe to say they're definitively ahead of Maryland and Purdue; either can jump Indiana with a title here. However, their cases for the 2 line are a bit more tenuous, even if they play the best possible opponents on the way through. It's quite likely these three teams will end up on the 3 or 4 line apiece, with maybe a stray 5 seed. Strong enough to avoid the flawed teams on the 6-7 lines, not strong enough for the 2 line. And the order of these teams are very variable, still.
Iowa's kinda fallen a half-step behind those three. I wouldn't discount their chances of getting back into the middle of the Maryland/Purdue/Indiana battle, but I no longer think they can come out on top of all 3 of them. Iowa/Purdue is going to go a long ways towards solving things, and Indiana playing the winner could make things very solvent. Maryland being trapped on the other side of the draw complicates things.
Wisconsin is in the lockbox, but they're another half-step behind Iowa with those ugly losses. I can maybe buy a 4 seed, but, man, with those losses I just can't go higher, even if they go on a Maryland/MSU/Indiana run.
Michigan's your one bubble team, and they wound up in a tough but great spot. Once they beat Northwestern, it's probably a win-and-in game with Indiana. In a perfect world, they'd have a more beatable opponent like Wisky that can help the resume, but them's the breaks. Beat Indiana and you're probably in, lose and you're probably out.
Ohio St needs multiple big wins to have a chance, and, well, at least Michigan St and Maryland line up for them. Get those two and we'll have a discussion.
I think Ohio St is the only NIT team from here. Northwestern is next up but the resume is too thin. Penn St out as well. Perhaps one or more consider Vegas or the CBI.
Monday, March 7, 2016
3/8 S-CURVE
The 1 line: Kansas (26-4), Villanova (27-4), Virginia (24-6), Michigan St (26-5)
The 2 line: North Carolina (25-6), Oklahoma (24-7), Xavier (26-4), Oregon (24-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (24-7), Miami (24-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (23-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Iowa St (21-10), Duke (22-9)
The 5 line: Purdue (24-7), Texas (20-11), Arizona (24-7), Texas A&M (24-7)
The 6 line: Iowa (21-9), Baylor (20-10), California (22-9), Dayton (24-6)
The 7 line: Notre Dame (20-10), Seton Hall (22-8), Wisconsin (20-11), Colorado (20-10)
The 8 line: Providence (22-9), USC (20-11), Texas Tech (19-11), South Carolina (23-7)
The 9 line: St Bonaventure (22-7), Pittsburgh (19-10), Butler (21-9), St Mary's (26-4)
The 10 line: Syracuse (19-12), Monmouth (27-7), Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7),
The 11 line: Vanderbilt (19-12), Gonzaga (24-7), Cincinnati (22-9), UConn (21-10), Temple (20-10), San Diego St (21-8)
The 12 line: Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (23-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4)
The 13 line: Akron (23-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (22-5), Iona (22-10), UAB (25-5), Stephen F Austin (21-5)
The 15 line: Wright St (20-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (20-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11),
The 16 line: Lehigh (16-14), Wagner (21-9), Hampton (17-10), Texas Southern (17-13), FGCU (16-13), Austin Peay (16-17)
For the last time this year, let's expand the section below, to capture the full bubble picture, from the newly locked to the barely alive hoping for a miracle.
Into the lockbox:
Seton Hall
Wisconsin
Colorado
Providence
USC
Texas Tech
Bubble in:
South Carolina
St Bonaventure
Pittsburgh
Butler
St Mary's***
Next 4 in:
Syracuse
Monmouth
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Last 4 in:
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
Cincinnati
UConn
Last 4 out:
Oregon St
Michigan
Tulsa
VCU
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Florida St
Florida
Temple***
Houston
Deep bubble:
San Diego St***
Hofstra
Georgia Tech
Ohio St
Washington
George Washington
Alabama
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Beyond this point, I just can't buy a scenario for anyone to get all the way through to the cutline, unless you want to count a bad major conference team (think Georgia, Kansas St, Creighton) making a massive runout.
The 2 line: North Carolina (25-6), Oklahoma (24-7), Xavier (26-4), Oregon (24-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (24-7), Miami (24-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (23-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Iowa St (21-10), Duke (22-9)
The 5 line: Purdue (24-7), Texas (20-11), Arizona (24-7), Texas A&M (24-7)
The 6 line: Iowa (21-9), Baylor (20-10), California (22-9), Dayton (24-6)
The 7 line: Notre Dame (20-10), Seton Hall (22-8), Wisconsin (20-11), Colorado (20-10)
The 8 line: Providence (22-9), USC (20-11), Texas Tech (19-11), South Carolina (23-7)
The 9 line: St Bonaventure (22-7), Pittsburgh (19-10), Butler (21-9), St Mary's (26-4)
The 10 line: Syracuse (19-12), Monmouth (27-7), Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7),
The 11 line: Vanderbilt (19-12), Gonzaga (24-7), Cincinnati (22-9), UConn (21-10), Temple (20-10), San Diego St (21-8)
The 12 line: Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (23-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4)
The 13 line: Akron (23-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (22-5), Iona (22-10), UAB (25-5), Stephen F Austin (21-5)
The 15 line: Wright St (20-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (20-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11),
The 16 line: Lehigh (16-14), Wagner (21-9), Hampton (17-10), Texas Southern (17-13), FGCU (16-13), Austin Peay (16-17)
For the last time this year, let's expand the section below, to capture the full bubble picture, from the newly locked to the barely alive hoping for a miracle.
Into the lockbox:
Seton Hall
Wisconsin
Colorado
Providence
USC
Texas Tech
Bubble in:
South Carolina
St Bonaventure
Pittsburgh
Butler
St Mary's***
Next 4 in:
Syracuse
Monmouth
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Last 4 in:
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
Cincinnati
UConn
Last 4 out:
Oregon St
Michigan
Tulsa
VCU
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Florida St
Florida
Temple***
Houston
Deep bubble:
San Diego St***
Hofstra
Georgia Tech
Ohio St
Washington
George Washington
Alabama
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Beyond this point, I just can't buy a scenario for anyone to get all the way through to the cutline, unless you want to count a bad major conference team (think Georgia, Kansas St, Creighton) making a massive runout.
3/7 recap
CAA finals:
UNC-Wilmington 80, Hofstra 73 (OT) - I wouldn't be surprised if Hofstra shows up on a last 4 out list from the committee, just as a token salute to the CAA as a whole this year
MAAC finals:
Iona 79, Monmouth 76 - great, bubble discussion with Monmouth. I'm already sick of it. This is going to be a fun week
SoCon finals:
Chattanooga 73, East Tennessee St 67 - yay, all my Chattanooga at-large talk throughout the year gets erased!
WCC semifinals:
St Mary's 81, Pepperdine 66
Gonzaga 88, BYU 84 - while everyone else messed around, the two bubble teams here keep their nose clean. Other bubble teams' rooting interest? Cede the bid to St Mary's and root against Gonzaga
Summit semifinals:
North Dakota St 69, IPFW 68 - 1 seed down. Might not be a NIT bid poaching situation is South Dakota St beats NDSU though, because SDSU is a probable NIT at-large team
South Dakota St 54, Denver 53
Horizon semifinals:
Green Bay 99, Valparaiso 92 (OT) - Valpo to the at-large board. Worst case scenario for them is Monmouth and Wichita are already on that board, and Valpo doesn't compare well to them. Valpo kinda needs to be the lone mid-major on that board against the upper majors to have a chance, because they trail a couple other mid-majors
Wright St 59, Oakland 55 - oh and there goes the 2 seed too. This might be a brutal seed for the conference next week
A-East semifinals:
Stony Brook 80, Hartford 64
Vermont 63, New Hampshire 56
MAC first round:
Bowling Green 70, Kent St 69
Miami(OH) 49, Ball St 47
Eastern Michigan 69, Toledo 60
Northern Illinois 56, Western Michigan 50
MEAC first round:
Savannah St 63, Delaware 58
Coppin St 98, North Carolina A&T 91 (2OT)
UNC-Wilmington 80, Hofstra 73 (OT) - I wouldn't be surprised if Hofstra shows up on a last 4 out list from the committee, just as a token salute to the CAA as a whole this year
MAAC finals:
Iona 79, Monmouth 76 - great, bubble discussion with Monmouth. I'm already sick of it. This is going to be a fun week
SoCon finals:
Chattanooga 73, East Tennessee St 67 - yay, all my Chattanooga at-large talk throughout the year gets erased!
WCC semifinals:
St Mary's 81, Pepperdine 66
Gonzaga 88, BYU 84 - while everyone else messed around, the two bubble teams here keep their nose clean. Other bubble teams' rooting interest? Cede the bid to St Mary's and root against Gonzaga
Summit semifinals:
North Dakota St 69, IPFW 68 - 1 seed down. Might not be a NIT bid poaching situation is South Dakota St beats NDSU though, because SDSU is a probable NIT at-large team
South Dakota St 54, Denver 53
Horizon semifinals:
Green Bay 99, Valparaiso 92 (OT) - Valpo to the at-large board. Worst case scenario for them is Monmouth and Wichita are already on that board, and Valpo doesn't compare well to them. Valpo kinda needs to be the lone mid-major on that board against the upper majors to have a chance, because they trail a couple other mid-majors
Wright St 59, Oakland 55 - oh and there goes the 2 seed too. This might be a brutal seed for the conference next week
A-East semifinals:
Stony Brook 80, Hartford 64
Vermont 63, New Hampshire 56
MAC first round:
Bowling Green 70, Kent St 69
Miami(OH) 49, Ball St 47
Eastern Michigan 69, Toledo 60
Northern Illinois 56, Western Michigan 50
MEAC first round:
Savannah St 63, Delaware 58
Coppin St 98, North Carolina A&T 91 (2OT)
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