Wednesday, November 19, 2014

11/18 recap

Bracket impact result of the day:

Kentucky 72, Kansas 40

So in the preseason, I put Kansas at the #1 overall seed, and Kentucky on the 2 line (5th overall).  I laid out my simple reasons - we've seen Kentucky underachieve while breaking in freshmen to the college game, and the SEC is so weak that UK might simply not get enough quality win chances compared to the other heavyweights.  Therefore, UK's profile will have less meat than profiles from other conferences; hence the 2 seed as I put 4 other projected conference champs ahead of them.

Then this happened.  So now I'm the idiot on the Bracket Matrix who was the only one not to put UK on the 1 line.  Ha.  Knowing Calipari, though, I bet he likes that their average on it is 1.03 instead of 1.00.  Motivation and such.  Well, too bad, that'll be adjusted this weekend when the first in-season bracket comes out.

Other immediate impact results:
Northern Iowa 79, @Stephen F Austin 77 (OT) - Right away, a quality road win that will look great on UNI's at-large resume.  SFA doesn't play big-time opponents they needed this badly for their at-large chances.  And they missed.  Even with a gaudy record, they may need to win their conference tourney
Duke 81, Michigan St 71 - Here's another case of possible stupidity.  I trust in Izzo, and I put them on the 2 line in the preseason, in large part because of the strength of the B1G.  After watching them, that probably needs to be a 4-5 seed for them, not a 2.  Duke is a solid 1.
@VCU 87, Toledo 78 - This win is more quality than you think for VCU.  No harm for Toledo, but they don't have that many quality win chances remaining
@San Diego St 53, Utah 49 - Both are tournament teams, and this is a "status quo" result
Wichita St 71, Memphis 56 - Memphis (and all the other AAC teams) need to take the non-con more seriously, and more particularly the quality opponents.  Because opportunities are limited in conference play

@Wofford 86, Iona 73
@UMass 77, Manhattan 68 (OT)
Baylor 69, @South Carolina 65 - S-E-C!
Northeastern 76, @Florida St 73 - N'eastern might be the CAA favorites, but still not a good one for FSU at all
@Xavier 97, Long Beach St 74
@Georgia 80, Stony Brook 70
St Louis 69, @Indiana St 56
@Ohio St 74, Marquette 63
@Old Dominion 63, Richmond 57
Murray St 68, @Middle Tennessee 49
@LSU 69, Texas Tech 64 (OT) - jeebus, they almost blew that one?
@Boise St 72, Montana 67 (2OT) - same comment as above

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