State of the conferences, part 4

State of the Summit

This is all about North Dakota St (8-4), with a fighting chance at a Top 50 RPI.  They've scheduled up bigtime.  They did convert one major opportunity @Notre Dame.  Losses @St Mary's, Southern Miss, and @Ohio St are forgivable with that at hand.  @North Dakota, however, is a death blow.  An at-large bid is probably too much to ask for.  Needed two of those losses back, probably.

Nebraska-Omaha (7-4) is a borderline top 100 team, at least.  Nothing in the profile is remarkable though.  Some weak road wins are boosting it.  Denver (4-6) did schedule up, and did beat Belmont, but a pair of MWC wins (CSU, Wyoming) lost value and they bleeded too many games against better competition.

IPFW (8-4) played a bad schedule, so don't read much into the record, except it'll carry them to postseason play.  In the bottom four, we have South Dakota St (4-7), Western Illinois (2-7), South Dakota (2-8), and IUPUI (2-11).  SDSU's win over Belmont is the only win that suggests any of these teams can make any noise.

Final predictions:  NDSU is the class of the league.  However, I do think they can squeeze three more teams in the CBI/CIT.

State of the Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette (6-4) has emerged as the profile front-runner for now, although traditionally in this conference, it means nothing.  Good SoS, and won at Louisiana Tech.

It's a mess behind them.  Western Kentucky (7-4) has name recognition and picked off a game against Southern Miss.  Arkansas St (6-4) has the other winning record, but it's weak.  Louisiana-Monroe (2-4), South Alabama (3-6), and Georgia St (4-6) have the profiles suggesting mid-table finishes.

At the bottom, we have Texas-Arlington (3-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (2-7), Texas St (2-8), and Troy (3-7).  Profiles are barren and SoSs are low.

Final predictions:  Whoever feels like winning this conference tourney (who the heck knows) will make the NCAAs.  There will probably be enough winning records for 2 CBI/CIT teams but no more.

State of the MAAC

Manhattan (9-2) has emerged with the best resume.  @LaSalle, and @South Carolina have emerged as wins, and they've compiled other weaker wins.  The SoS isn't strong enough to support an at-large bid, though.

The conference, at least according to the computers, is kind of dividing into haves and have nots.  In the first category, we have Iona (5-5), Canisius (8-3), Rider (5-5), and Quinnipiac (6-4).  They all have profiles with decent wins but no wins of actual note.

In the bottom half, we have Monmouth (6-6), Siena (4-8), Marist (3-9), Fairfield (2-9), Niagara (3-9), and St Peter's (3-7).  Marist in particular is kind of weird because they've won 3 in a row, including Bucknell.  But they're down here.

Final predictions:  Manhattan to the 14 line.  3 more teams to the CBI/CIT.

State of the Patriot

This conference is a bit more wide-open.  Bucknell (5-5) and Boston (7-5) are the co-favorites, probably.  Bucknell did win @Penn St and @Kent St but bricked out elsewhere, while Boston won @Maryland.

Among the chasers, Colgate (5-4), Holy Cross (6-5), and Lehigh (7-5) are closest based on record, but nothing in the profiles suggest they can match the top 2.  In the bottom half, Lafayette (3-6), American (3-7), Loyola(MD) (4-5), Army (4-5), and Navy (3-7) combine for no quality wins and some particularly harmful schedules.

Final predictions:  With the conference power rankings down a bit, I'm not sure the champion (let's say Boston) escapes the 15 line.  Bucknell to the CBI/CIT.

State of the Big West

UC Santa Barbara (6-4) has funneled to the top of the conference.  With a win @UNLV and vs. California, they're not at-large viable, but they are 13 seed viable.  Actually, all their losses are reasonable.  There's just one or two too many.  Sorry.

Long Beach St (1-9) played their usual ridiculous schedule, and binked one vs. USC.  They'll typically charge up to the front.  Hawaii (6-3) beat St Mary's, so they should be capable of hanging at the top as well.  UC Irvine (6-6) did win @Washington and @Denver, so maybe this is a 4-wide race.

The bottom half is more rough.  Cal Poly (2-7), Cal St-Fullerton (5-7), Cal-St Northridge (5-5), UC Riverside (3-7), and UC Davis (3-9) don't bring anything to the table.

Final prediction:  Who knows who'll win.  2 more to the CBI/CIT.  4 of 9 with winning records isn't bad.

State of the WAC

New Mexico St (9-5) is by far the class of the league.  Great SoS, won at New Mexico, swept UTEP, won at Hawaii, and none of the losses are damning.

Unfortunately, the rest of the conference is horrible.  Just horrible.  Seattle (6-4) seems to be second best, but even this profile is barren.  Idaho (5-7), Cal St-Bakersfield (5-7), Utah Valley (3-7), UMKC (3-7), Grand Canyon (2-6), Chicago St (3-7), Texas Pan American (3-9).  What a wasteland.  At least UMKC scheduled up.

And since the WAC is ragtag, let's give an honorable mention to the only independent, NJIT (6-8), who is not a factor this year.

Final prediction:  New Mexico St is the only team with a winning record, period.

State of the A-Sun

Mercer (6-4) is the class of the league, with a decent schedule and decent results (reasonable losses, beat Seton Hall, Denver, and Ole Miss).  Not enough for an at-large, but enough to scare people in March.

USC-Upstate (5-6) was supposed to be one contender.  They won @South Carolina and @Virginia Tech to show they're good enough to be 2nd.  However, FGCU (4-7) has fallen off the pace with marginal losses against a more marginal schedule.

In the depths of the conference, we have East Tennessee St (5-6), Lipscomb (4-6), North Florida (4-7), Northern Kentucky (4-7), Jacksonville (2-7), Kennesaw St (1-10), and Stetson (2-10).  I frankly don't think any of them make it to .500.

Final prediction:  USC-Upstate oughta secure a postseason berth of some kind.  Good on you.  Mercer upsets someone in March in the notable tournament.

State of the OVC

Boy, I missed on this conference.

Belmont (7-5) has the win over UNC in its pocket.  Can they be at-large contenders?  They did win @MTSU too.  But losses to South Dakota St, Denver, and Richmond are too much to overcome, probably.  With just one of those, they'd be fine.  But with 3?  Too many.  Still time to prove me wrong though.  One additional problem - the OVC is down and will take Belmont down with them.

What happened to my bold call of Eastern Kentucky (6-4)?  They had high-profile chance and missed them all.  They'll join Morehead St (7-6), Southeast Missouri St (6-4), and Murray St (3-6) as winning teams in the league.

The down teams in the conference are really down.  Take a look.  Tennessee Tech (5-7), Austin Peay (4-8), Jacksonville St (4-9), Tennessee-Martin (3-10), Tennessee St (0-12), Eastern Illinois (7-20), and SIUE (2-10).  Yuck.

Final prediction:  Obviously Belmont to the NCAAs, and 2 more to the CBI/CIT.

State of the conferences, part 3

State of the SEC

They're getting better, but they're not all the way back.  The news is that the conference may actually cost Kentucky and Florida seeds they may deserve.

Kentucky (9-3) has a very good non-con SoS, and figure to have a strong computer profile.  Losses to N-Michigan St, @North Carolina, and N-Baylor are reasonable.  The issue is that the signature wins are N-Providence, Belmont, and Boise St.  Their 2 games with Florida assume a much greater importance (along with Louisville).  In order to be a 1 seed, they probably have to get 2, and preferably 3.  The SEC won't offer up enough quality elsewhere to mask other faults.

Florida (9-2) might actually be in better shape, also the SoS isn't as good because of a couple of anchors that Kentucky avoided and Florida took on.  Losses are expected (@UConn, @Wisky).  Wins over Kansas, Florida St, and N-Memphis provide solid support.  Winning the SEC (and splitting with Kentucky) will result in a better seed than UK.  Probably a 2 or 3 seed in the making.

Missouri (10-1) is probably next, but with a non-con SoS hovering around 150, their 2 games against UK/UF assume more importance.  Loss to Illinois balanced with win over UCLA.  They would be well advised to keep their head clear of the morass below.

It gets ugly quick in the SEC.  Let's go to LSU (8-2) against an actually decent schedule.  Losses @UMass and N-Memphis aren't really balanced out by the wins (N-Butler is the best), but that's OK.  As I'm about to write, there's going to be a big bubble mess in the SEC.  Staying ahead of it is the key.  And as is the case for all of them, getting a high-end win is also key.

Arkansas (9-2) has a marginal SoS hovering around 200 for the non-con.  They did beat SMU and Minnesota, and neither loss (N-Cal, N-Gonzaga) is bad, so there's some hope here.  See the LSU comment.  Tennessee (7-4) has a better SoS but it came with additional predictable losses (and two in N-UTEP and NC State that are more borderline).  The N-Xavier win keep them in the midpack heading into conference play.  Ole Miss (8-3) has a not-as-bad-as-you-think loss to Mercer, but no wins to lean on when push comes to shove.  They're in this group too.

Alabama (4-6) actually has a very strong SoS.  Losses to N-Oklahoma, N-Duke, and Wichita St are fine.  N-Drexel, @USF, and Xavier aren't bad losses, per se, but they are when you whiffed on every chance at a decent win.

There's 5 teams I'm putting in the no hope column.  Texas A&M (8-3) has a lot of empty calories in its profile.  Nothing even resembling a quality win.  South Carolina (3-6) did play a good schedule and beat St Mary's, but at some point, you have to win games.  Georgia (6-4) racked up meh losses against a meh schedule.  See A&M comment.  Mississippi St (9-3) has played one of the worst schedules so far. More empty calories.  Auburn (6-3) has done the same.  The SoS down here for these guys, minus South Carolina, really hurts the SEC.

Final prediction:  Ok, let's send Kentucky, Florida, Mizzou, and LSU to the tournament.  Anyone else?  I'll step out on a ledge and say Arkansas and Tennessee make it to meaningful at-large discussion, and Arkansas actually gets there.  Tennessee and Ole Miss to the NIT.

State of the Big East

The question heading in was what kind of power conference this would be.  The answer is both good and bad.  The lack of a high-end team will cause perception problems, but with 8 Top 100 RPI teams, the depth will support 4 or 5 NCAA teams, easily.

Villanova (11-0) is now the favorite, undefeated against a solid non-con SoS hovering around 35.  Winning the Battle 4 Atlantis will do a profile wonders.  N-Kansas and N-Iowa will be very good wins to hang on to, and they've pretty much avoided the RPI bombs in the non-con schedule.  They will be a computer profile monster.  How far would a Big East conference title go?  Very, very far.  Their big advantage is that they have the signature wins already in hand just in case.

Creighton (9-2) has probably defaulted to second favorite in the conference.  The non-con SoS (175) will be an issue, as the computer numbers might not catch up to their presumptive other rankings.  The loss to George Washington actually looks reasonable now.  However, the quality wins are...N-Arizona St and California?  Those are enough to make the NCAAs with expected conference play, but to get a real high seed?  That is doubtful.

Georgetown (7-3) has played a very good schedule, and with wins of N-Kansas St and N-VCU, they have more upside than most in the conference.  The loss of N-Northeastern looks like an albatross for them right now, but enough quality wins in conference play will minimize that effect.  Losses to @Kansas and N-Oregon won't hurt as long as they win games against top competition in the conference.

Behind these 3 will be the bubble, and it'll be crowded to start.  Xavier (9-3) has leapt forward in a supposed down year, with reasonable wins over Tennessee and N-Cincinnati.  The 3 losses in Atlantis (Iowa, Tennessee, USC) are the killers right now, as they've only played and won one road game (Alabama) in addition to those 3 neutral site games.  They'll need to show competence on the road in conference play.  If they do, the computer numbers should be good enough to support their candidacy.

Butler (8-2) is in a dicey situation.  The losses (N-Oklahoma St, N-LSU) are fine enough, but there no quality wins behind Princeton.  They have work to do in conference play.  St John's (8-3) is in a similar situation to Butler (losses to Wisky and Syracuse, best win over Bucknell), but the kicker here is a marginal loss of N-Penn St as well.  Providence (10-2) has SoS issues to battle.  Again, lack of quality wins (N-LaSalle?) bracketed by reasonable losses (N-Maryland, N-Kentucky).

Marquette (7-5) is clearly the disappointment of the league.  The RPI, SoS, the computer numbers are very marginal right now (although they'll get better during conference play).  The losses are all actually excusable in a vacuum (Ohio St, N-SDSU, @Wisky, N-New Mexico, @Arizona St), but there's too many considering the only win with any nutritional value is N-George Washington.  There will be enough opportunities in conference play to erase these sins, but the margin of error is smaller than most.

The conference goes 8 deep with NCAA contenders, leaving just 2 to form the meaty underbelly.  Seton Hall (8-4) has a bad SoS with bad losses (Fairleigh Dickinson, St Peter's).  DePaul (7-5) has no good wins and took too many body blows (to be fair, @Illinois St is the only thing approaching a bad loss status).  These 2 will take it on the chin in conference play, though.

Final prediction:  Villanova, Creighton, and Georgetown will be fine.  The real question is the very large bubble in the 4-8 positions in the conference.  I think there's enough wins to go around for 2 to get in (let's say Xavier and Marquette for now).  Let's put St John's and Providence in the NIT, and Butler will be the odd man out in the CBI.

State of the AAC

Can the conference support the 1-seed candidacy of Louisville?  The answer is leaning no.  It'll probably depend more on the failures of other conferences than the success of this one.

Louisville (11-1) has a surprisingly low SoS so far (although Kentucky will correct that).  The loss (N-UNC) is fine, but would you believe the best win so far is probably Missouri St or Southern Miss?  Not good, especially with the AAC's strength.  This is why @Kentucky is so important.  They might have to finish with just 3 losses overall to have a realistic chance at the 1 seed.  Unless the eye test factors in or something.

Memphis (8-2) got an important split with Oklahoma St.  The loss of N-Florida hurts, but not much.  Right now they show a very strong SoS, but I expect it to crash a bit.  They're really in a similar situation to their CUSA days.  They've shown they can find a 1 seed out of that situation...or an 8.  Expect wild swings in projections here.

UConn (10-1) has a more average schedule.  N-Indiana, N-Maryland, and @Washington are wins that aren't holding water like they hoped they would.  The loss to Stanford stings a bit because of it.  Of course, the signature win over Florida is the lynchpin.  That's  the best win in the conference and gives them more margin for error.  I expect a 3-way race for protected seeding here.

The bubble quickly approaches.  Cincinnati (10-2) would figure to be above it most years, but with an average SoS, maybe not.  Quality win over N-Pitt bracketed by losses @New Mexico and N-Xavier.  They should be fine, but go get 2 wins against the top 3 just to be sure.  SMU (10-2) is in a more precarious position.  Worse computer numbers, worse losses (N-Virginia and @Arkansas), and no wins to really lean on.  This is a team that definitely needs 2 wins against the top 3.

The bottom half of the conference, I don't have as serious NCAA threats, or even postseason threats.  Temple (5-5) is notable by name only.  Bad losses and just the win over St Joseph's to lean on.  Central Florida (6-3) has no wins and a bad loss @FAU.  South Florida (8-4) has an abysmal SoS and several marginal losses.  Houston (8-5), owner of the 2nd easiest schedule in the country, which says everything you need to know here.  Rutgers (5-7) hasn't even played a tough schedule, so discard them.

Final prediction:  Lousiville, UConn, and Memphis all get top-6 seeds.  Cincy beats out SMU on the bubble.  SMU goes to the NIT instead.

State of the conferences, part 2

State of the Pac 12

The depth of the Pac 12 is much better than in previous years, and should also be able to support the candidacy of a top 1 overall seed.

That team is Arizona (13-0), who have a good but not great SoS that includes N-Duke, @Michigan, @San Diego St.  The big deal for them is that the Pac 12 should contain enough quality win chances to help them maintain a 1 seed, and maybe the best of the 1 seeds.

Oregon (11-0) has also navigated the non-con without a loss, with a reasonable collection of wins (N-Georgetown, BYU, N-Illinois).  The two games against Arizona will be key.  A split will bring them a high-end win they need for a top 2 or 3 seed.  Without it, can they make it all the way up there, seeding-wise?  It could be dicey.

Colorado (10-2) has made a leap forward against a schedule that the computers love (top 20).  Further, they have the high-end win they need (Kansas) for a nice seed.  The two losses are both on neutral courts to Baylor and Oklahoma St (which could hurt them for protected seeding purposes).  They kind of need to hope they're not near Big 12 teams on the S-Curve.  Awkward situation.  The computer profile is helped with sneaky-good profile wins over Harvard, Elon, et al.  The ceiling is very high for Colorado, and the floor is pretty low, too.

UCLA (10-2) has fallen to 4th banana in the conference, but a good seed is still easily attainable for them.  The big issue here is quality wins (which right now are...Drexel?  UC Santa Barbara?).  @Missouri and N-Duke are fine losses, but were their only signature win chances.  Conference play means more to them than any other Pac 12 team.  They only get Arizona once.  Going just 1-4 against the top 3 would be harmful.  2-3 would be fine.  Pretty straightforward situation, I think.

Behind the strong top 4 will probably be the bubble.  Arizona St (10-2) lead this brigade.  Their non-con SoS is hovering around 250 and will be a hindrance, but conference play will have some quality win chances.  Those wins over @UNLV and Marquette are quickly evaporating into thin air.  Kind of a bad break, really.  Meanwhile, Stanford (8-3) has reasonable computer numbers and a road win over UConn in its pocket.  And its losses are reasonable (BYU, N-Michigan, N-Pittsburgh).  Conference play will make or break them.  California (8-4) does have a win of N-Arkansas and all 4 losses were road/neutral, but they'll need to make hay, moreso than Stanford or Arizona St.

The bottom 5 of the league figures to be the cutoff of at-large contention.  Utah (9-1) has a shiny record against a very soft schedule.  They do have the one win over BYU, but the others do more harm than good.  If they beat up on the middle of the conference (Stanford, Cal, Arizona St), then we can re-evaluate.  USC (7-4) is another team that is probably out of it, but not quite.  They have wins @Dayton and N-Xavier, and the losses are road/neutral varieties against teams like Wake Forest and Long Beach St.  Make noise in conference play and we'll reevaluate.

The other 3 are probably out of it.  Oregon St (7-3) have a poor SoS surrounded by one reasonable win (@Maryland) and a bad home loss to Coppin St.  Washington St (5-5) would have to count on N-Purdue as its best win, with a couple marginal losses.  And Washington (6-5) may be the disappointment of the league.  Too many losses against a schedule with not enough road/neutral games.

Final prediction:  In addition to the top 4, there's probably room for 2 of the Arizona St/Cal/Stanford trio to sneak into the NCAAs.  Stanford is the odd team out for now and can join one of Utah/USC in the NIT.  And the other team can go to the CBI if they feel like it.

State of the ACC

People expected this to be the best league.  However, the middle of the conference has let the top teams down.  Duke, Syracuse, and the rest at the top aren't going to get the support they were hoping for.  They can still get 1 seeds out of this conference, but just 1, and it'll be hard work.

Syracuse (11-0) is the undefeated team, and has posted a reasonable SoS to date (64), which should lead to a shiny RPI/SoS in March.  The wins are reasonable (Indiana, @St John's, N-Cal, N-Minnesota) but lack the high-endness needed for a top seed.  Obviously, though, ACC play will supply them with what they need.

Duke (9-2) has their usual shiny record and SoS.  They'll be computer monsters again.  What does work against them is head-to-head losses of N-Kansas and N-Arizona, which will hurt in 1-seed conversations.  With N-UCLA and Michigan in their pocket, they'll need more quality wins to get that 1 seed.  ACC title is likely required for that.

Someone please tell me what to do with North Carolina (8-3).  Shiny computer numbers.  A great collection of high-end wins (N-Louisville, @Michigan St, Kentucky).  Marginal losses (@UAB, Belmont, Texas) that aren't awful, but 1 seeds don't have these games on their profile.  The committee would ignore them if there were just one or two.  But three?  With the possibility of more?  I have no idea how to seed this team, because the high end wins are so high.  What's more important for them is holding serve against inferior teams.  1-2 against Syracuse/Duke is more than enough in conference play.  Just beat all the bottom teams.

Florida St (8-3) has made a little leap forward to join the top 3 in feeling comfortable about at-large chances.  N-VCU and N-UMass will carry value.  Losses to N-Michigan, @Florida, and @Minnesota are dismissable, probably.  FSU's big issue is that they get the top 3 each just once.  Go 0-3 and you can still survive, as long as you beat enough of the middle class of the league.

Pittsburgh (11-1) has once again built a very marginal non-con SoS (around 230).  This has led to one reasonable loss (N-Cincy), a reasonable win (N-Stanford), and a lot of profile dead weight that will be insignificant based on their ACC data points.   Conference play will almost entirely determine their fate, although barring a complete collapse, they'll probably be fine.

Virginia (9-3) is the other team that can probably feel OK about their chances.  Good computer numbers.  They do have a marginal loss (@Green Bay) and their best wins are N-Missouri St and N-SMU, though.  They need to tread carefully in conference play.  This is another team with just 3 shots against the top 3.  Win enough against the middle class and they'll be fine though.

Behind the top 6 is where I put the bubble, and it's short and brutish.  Notre Dame (8-4) is a disappointment, although the SoS is improved compared to recent years.  The losses to Indiana St and N-North Dakota St aren't nearly as bad as you think.  The issue is high-end wins.  N-Indiana is one, and...that's it.  I actually think they could be fine if they avoid disaster.

Clemson (8-3) has a soft schedule and a lack of high-end wins, which is becoming a theme in these write-ups.  @Auburn is not the kind of loss you can absorb when the best win is N-Temple.  North Carolina St (9-2) has reasonable computer numbers for now, but the loss to NC Central can't be erased when the only win of note is @Tennessee.  Maryland (7-5) has a dicey home loss to Oregon St with a best win of N-Northern Iowa.  Not going to work.  However, all 3 will at least have a couple chances for signature wins in this conference.

The bottom 5 is where I put the postseason cutoff point.  Wake Forest (10-2) has a bad SoS with Richmond being the high-end win.  Pass.  Miami (7-5) actually has multiple questionable losses and the schedule wasn't good enough, despite the N-Arizona St win.  Virginia Tech (7-4) has no quality win anywhere besides Miami, and whiffed their big chances.  Georgia Tech (8-4) did at least beat Illinois, but there's too many losses in toss-up games.  And Boston College (3-8) is downright horrible (there's more reasonable losses than you'd think in here, but still).

Final prediction:  I said above I'm putting the top 6 in the NCAAs, and I'll say Notre Dame makes it too.  I'll cut the ACC off at this point, however.  With the unbalanced schedule, I'm not sure there's enough quality wins to go around.  Two of Clemson, NC State, and Maryland can make the NIT, and can say they're progressing, at least.