Bubble Watch - Big 10

Fuck you Jim Delany for scheduling Friday games.

Lockbox:

Michigan (20-2) (9-2) NET 5 SoS 64
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 183, 5-2 vs. Quad 1, 6-0 vs. Quad 2, avg win 125
Signature wins:  UNC, Purdue, @Nova
Bad losses:  none

Middling non-con SoS is about the only real flaw.  As much as people like to rail on about metrics, the raw number of losses do matter, and just two road losses in league play is solid.  Legitimate 1 seed contender.

Michigan St (18-4) (9-2) NET 8 SoS 28
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 8-3 vs. Quad 1, 4-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 104
Signature wins:  Purdue, swept Iowa, Maryland
Bad losses:  I suppose Indiana at home

8 Quad 1 wins is sexy.  You can make the argument that home against Purdue and @Iowa being he best win is a problem – they lack the truly high end wins that the other contenders for the 1 line have.  However, 6 true road wins and an average win approaching 100 is really good too.  There is also time to fix the signature win thing, against Michigan.

Purdue (16-6) (9-2) NET 12 SoS 2
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 34, 5-5 vs. Quad 1, 5-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 96
Signature wins:  MSU, @Wisky, Iowa
Bad losses:  N-Notre Dame

There is one potential criticism in that, despite the SoS, the non-con was light on tangible results, having lost to VT, Texas, and UND.  They’ve gotten enough quality wins in conference play to mitigate that, though.  Every metric is between acceptable and great right now.

Wisconsin (16-6) (8-3) NET 11 SoS 25
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 84, 5-4 vs. Quad 1, 5-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 125
Signature wins:  Michigan, @Iowa, Maryland
Bad losses:  @WKU, Minny at home?

A good lesson:  If you win a majority, but not a super-majority, of your games against prospective tourney teams, you’ll be fine.  Wisconsin is fine.  Decent amount of road wins.  Good SoS.  No red flags.  One signature win buttressing the resume.  Just fine.

Bubble:

Maryland (17-6) (8-4) NET 24 SoS 29
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 58, 3-4 vs. Quad 1, 5-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 135
Signature wins:  Wisky, @OSU, Nebraska?
Bad losses:  N-Illinois

Without a win over a signature opponent, Maryland falls short of the lockbox for now.  Another resume in overall fine shape, as they’ve won enough games against similar competition to be okay.  Whiffed on wins in their 4 toughest games, which will limit their seed upside for now. 

Iowa (17-5) (6-5) NET 22 SoS 68
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 260, 3-5 vs. Quad 1, 5-0 vs. Quad 2, avg win 142
Signature wins:  Michigan, Iowa St, Ohio St?
Bad losses:  @Minny is the worst

Here the non-con SoS is a definite counterweight to the resume, so no lockbox yet.  Only two road wins (NW, PSU); they’ll need to pick up 1 road win of significance at some point just to be safe.  They’ll have reasonable chances to do so, though.  Their depth of wins isn’t that great (you can blame UConn and Oregon for underperforming and not helping Iowa’s resume more).  This feels like a team destined to be in the middle of the bracket somewhere.

Minnesota (16-6) (6-5) NET 51 SoS 88
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 212, 3-4 vs. Quad 1, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 134
Signature wins:  @Wisky, Iowa, N-Washington
Bad losses:  @BC, @Illinois?

Marginal SoS, only 1 true road win (strangely enough, Wisconsin).  4 neutral site wins, although 3 of them have little caloric value.  So their issue is more transparent than most.  Win road games of any kind.  They’ll need a few more Quad 1-2 wins as well to be sure, but the road thing seems to be a bigger issue in my mind.

Ohio St (14-7) (4-6) NET 35 SoS 34
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 136, 3-5 vs. Quad 1, 3-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 152
Signature wins:  @Cincy, @Nebraska, @Creighton
Bad losses:  @Rutgers

OSU has lost to basically all the good B1G teams, and beaten all the fair and bad ones (minus Rutgers).  Did really important work in the non-con, with road wins that will carry weight with the committee.  They might need a high-end win by the end of the year, but they’ll have their chances to get it.  No red flags in the way that, say, Iowa or Minnesota have, so they’re in ok shape for now.

Indiana (13-9) (4-7) NET 44 SoS 50
Vital signs:  3-7 R/N, non-con SoS 156, 3-7 vs. Quad 1, 3-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 153
Signature wins:  @MSU, Louisville, Marquette
Bad losses:  @Rutgers

Some great, some not-so-great.  3 signature wins that will trump just about all other bubble contenders.  Marginal 2-7 road record, which includes losing to Rutgers, Arky, and Northwestern.  Depth of wins is not great, as evidenced by the avg win north of 150.  Their issue will be consistency going forward – they need quantity of good wins, not quality of good wins, if that makes sense.  More road wins, more Quad 1-2 wins, and it’s ok if they miss all the rest of their truly signature win chances.

Nebraska (12-9) (3-8) NET 33 SoS 107
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 236, 2-6 vs. Quad 1, 3-3 vs. Quad 2, avg win 148
Signature wins:  @Indiana, Seton Hall?  @Clemson?
Bad losses:  @Illinois, @Rutgers

A courtesy listing at this point.  No metric screams quality team right now.  No legitimate argument can be made anymore.  They’ve lost all their quality win chances.  Just can’t justify them anymore.

Off the board:
If you’re wondering, Northwestern is even worse off than Nebraska, with just a home win over Indiana to lean on.  And if you think Rutgers matters, their non-con SoS of 317 is a non-starter.

Bubble Watch - Big 12

Lockbox:

Kansas (17-5) (6-3) NET 17 SoS 1

Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 8-4 vs. Quad 1, 5-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 65

Signature wins:  N-Tennessee, N-Michigan St, N-Marquette, and there’s more

Bad losses:  @WVU

A resume with a ton of extremes.  Once again, Kansas has the #1 non-con SoS in the country.  That always plays well with the committee.  3 high end neutral site wins, which makes road losses to Kentucky and Iowa St disappear basically.  The Texas and ASU road losses, maybe not though.  Here’s the amazing thing about this almost flawless resume – only one true road win (Baylor).  Does the committee punish that, or do they consider the neutral site wins a trump card?  13 Quad 1+2 wins, and an average win of 65 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) are #1 overall seed worthy.  The true road win thing is the only flaw, but it’s a big one.  I can justify any rank between 1 and 8 for this team right now.

Texas Tech (17-5) (5-4) NET 16 SoS 40

Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 171, 3-5 vs. Quad 1, 6-0 vs. Quad 2, avg win 156

Signature wins:  K-State, @Texas?  N-Nebraska?

Bad losses:  none, if @Baylor doesn’t count

They’ve lost their 5 toughest games and won every other game.  Not much else to say about the resume.  With the Big 12 providing quality win chances throughout, they’ll be fine if they keep this up, but seeding them will be another matter.

Bubble:

Iowa St (17-5) (6-3) NET 13 SoS 45

Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 121, 3-4 vs. Quad 1, 3-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 142

Signature wins:  @TTU, Kansas, @Ole Miss?

Bad losses:  N-Arizona, I suppose

No metric stands out as high-quality, but no metric is a red flag either.  Lost most, but not all, of their signature win chances (road losses to Kansas, Iowa, and Baylor masked by the two roadies they did get).  They’re fine if they keep their wheels on the road.

TCU (15-6) (3-5) NET 36 SoS 70

Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 70, 1-5 vs. Quad 1, 4-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 137

Signature wins:  Baylor, Florida, Texas

Bad losses:  Lipscomb at home is the worst

Your red flag here is 1 true road win, against SMU.  They’ve lost 5 road games in conference play, all tough ones.  Kansas, TTU, Baylor, KState, OU.  The problem?  No more chances at truly signature wins unless they come at home, which limits their resume upside.  They do need more quality wins by March, for sure, though.

Kansas St (16-5) (6-2) NET 30 SoS 39

Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 109, 3-2 vs. Quad 1, 4-3 vs. Quad 2, avg win 124

Signature wins:  @Iowa St, TTU, @Oklahoma

Bad losses:  @A&M, @Tulsa aren’t great

This is your standard “probably in, just don’t lose a bunch in a row” resume.  There’s enough road results, just enough SoS, just enough quality wins to make me feel good about this one.

Baylor (15-6) (6-2) NET 29 SoS 74

Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 223, 4-3 vs. Quad 1, 5-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 131

Signature wins:  Iowa St, TTU, @Oklahoma

Bad losses:  Texas Southern and Stephen F Austin at home (2 quad 4 losses!)

Those are some butt ugly losses at the end there (neither team is at their peak, so it’s much worse than you think).  The good news is that the Big 12 is so strong, it won’t matter if you post results in conference play.  Which they have so far.  Big warning sirens though for this fact:  Kansas, K-State, ISU, TTU road games are still looming.  That’s 4 probable losses.  The non-con SoS will not provide sufficient cover for them if they lose a bunch of these tough games coming up.

Oklahoma (15-7) (3-6) NET 37 SoS 12

Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 10, 3-6 vs. Quad 1, 5-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 88

Signature wins:  N-Florida, TCU?  Wofford?

Bad losses:  @WVU

Here’s a case where you have to dive in on the numbers.  7 road/neutral wins, avg win below 100, sterling SoS usually means automatic safety.  However, the avg win is buttressed by the fact that OU hasn’t played a single opponent in the 200s or 300s in NET this year.  They do get credit for that scheduling, but they don’t have the signature wins that usually come with a computer profile like this.

Texas (12-10) (4-5) NET 41 SoS 3

Vital signs:  3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 4-5 vs. Quad 1, 3-3 vs. Quad 2, avg win 102

Signature wins:  N-UNC, Purdue, Kansas

Bad losses:  Radford, Providence at home?

So they have the signature wins…and 10 losses.  A few questionable ones (add @Georgia and @Okla St to that list above).  In the end, the committee will reward signature wins above all else, so they just need to avoid piling up more losses.  The good news is I think they have enough quality wins where it’s more about taking care of the Quad 2 games than it is about getting another Quad 1 win.  We’ve seen teams get in with 14 losses, so it’s doable.

Bubble Watch - ACC

Lockbox:

Virginia (20-1) (8-1) NET 1 SoS 56
Vital signs:  9-1 R/N, non-con SoS 181, 5-1 vs. Quad 1, 6-0 vs. Quad 2, avg win 135
Signature wins:  @Maryland, N-Wisky, Va Tech
Bad losses:  none

A couple minor marks against them – they need better signature wins, just in case, and the non-con SoS is merely just ok.  This is reflected in the average win, which is a bit too high for a prospective 1 seed.

Duke (19-2) (7-1) NET 3 SoS 5
Vital signs:  8-1 R/N, non-con SoS 7, 5-1 vs. Quad 1, 5-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 106
Signature wins:  UVa, N-Kentucky, N-TTU
Bad losses:  home to Syracuse isn’t the greatest loss for a prospective 1 seed

They’ve pretty much got what they need – high quality neutral site wins, great average win, great SoS.

North Carolina (17-4) (7-1) NET 10 SoS 11
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 14, 5-4 vs. Quad 1, 5-0 vs. Quad 2, avg win 118
Signature wins:  Gonzaga, @Louisville, VT
Bad losses:  N-Texas is the only thing approaching it

What might keep them from the 1 line is the missed chances for more signature wins – lost at Michigan, N-Kentucky, Louisville…no fault in losing them though.  Every faction of the resume is in good shape otherwise.

Virginia Tech (18-3) (7-2) NET 9 SoS 106
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 283, 3-2 vs. Quad 1, 4-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 165
Signature wins:  N-Purdue, @NCSU, N-Washington
Bad losses:  @Penn St I suppose

There’s one very alarming number – non-con SoS approaching 300, which sinks their average win into the 160s.  As you can see, their signature wins trail the rest of the top of the league, so this puts a cap on their ceiling.  They get Duke and Virginia at home still, so their seed volatility is high.  If they whiff on more quality win chances, they’ll slide.

Louisville (16-6) (7-2) NET 15 SoS 8
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 3, 3-5 vs. Quad 1, 4-1 vs. Quad 2, avg win 135
Signature wins:  Michigan St, @UNC, @Seton Hall?
Bad losses:  @Pitt probably…@Indiana might turn ugly yet

Sterling non-con SoS gives them plenty of wiggle room.  Lost to Tennessee, Kentucky, Marquette…beat Michigan St.  Split with UNC.  Winning 2 of your 6 toughest games is acceptable, but does put a ceiling on your seed line at 3, maybe 2.  Then again, they still have Virginia twice and Duke to go.  They could end up being the SoS darlings of the seed line.

Bubble:

Syracuse (16-6) (7-2) NET 42 SoS 35
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 73, 2-2 vs. Quad 1, 4-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 130
Signature wins:  @Duke, @Ohio St…Clemson?
Bad losses:  Ga Tech and ODU at home aren’t hot

Without @Duke, this is a resume in some trouble.  With it, they’re safe for now.  One thing about their road record, it’s 5-1.  That will play in the NCAA tournament.  Two neutral site losses to Oregon and UConn are a bit killer right now.  As with most NCAA teams, they have a bunch of signature win chances; they can’t afford to get skunked in all the games, but winning a couple more Quad 1 games should be enough.

Florida St (16-5) (4-4) NET 31 SoS 44
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 82, 2-3 vs. Quad 1, 4-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 141
Signature wins:  Purdue, N-LSU, Florida?
Bad losses:  @BC, @Pitt probably

This is your standard “safely in” resume.  A couple quality wins, no real damaging losses yet.  Only two true road wins (1 of them is awful Tulane), with 4 neutral site wins mixed in there.  So that’s the possible red flag for them down the road.  If you look at their schedule, they have a mix of very winnable road games (Wake, Clemson, GT) and quality teams at home (NCSU, VT, UL).  This is the type of schedule where the committee will expect good results.  Very easy to play your way out with this type of lineup.

North Carolina St (16-6) (4-5) NET 34 SoS 260
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 352, 1-5 vs. Quad 1, 4-0 vs. Quad 2, avg win 207
Signature wins:  Auburn, Clemson, @Notre Dame?  Yikes
Bad losses:  @Wake Forest

There are 353 D-1 teams.  Non-con SoS 352.  This is usually an automatic disqualifier, but in this new world, I don’t know if that’s the case this year yet.  They’ve whiffed on all their quality win chances other than Auburn, and now that win is diminishing in value.  One more alarming fact:  their final 5 games include Wake, Ga Tech, and BC twice.  Their resume make-or-break games are coming sooner rather than later.

Clemson (13-8) (3-5) NET 53 SoS 24
Vital signs:  3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 0-6 vs. Quad 1, 3-2 vs. Quad 2, avg win 166
Signature wins:  Lipscomb, N-Georgia, @South Carolina?  Lol
Bad losses:  N-Creighton and Nebraska are the worst

This is a generous listing, almost didn’t do it.  But since they have no bad losses, and signature win chances are everywhere in the ACC, we’ll list them.  But they need to make hay very quickly.

Off the board:
Life in the ACC is such that signature win chances are everywhere, so every team is a few wins away from relevance.  I can’t make the case for Ga Tech, BC, Notre Dame, or Pitt to be on the same level as Clemson, each has a fatal flaw (like non-con SoS).  All these teams also have problems with their raw number of losses.

2/1 - 2/3 recap

A tradition unlike any other:  Bubble Watch on superb owl Sunday.  Get ready for an onslaught throughout the day.

ACC:
@Virginia 56, Miami 46
North Carolina 79, @Louisville 69 - there's a signature road win that's worth a possible seed line to the positive for UNC
Virginia Tech 47, @NC State 24 - what the fuck is this shit.  NCSU just lost all my seed lines, on principle alone
@Florida St 59, Georgia Tech 49
Syracuse 65, @Pitt 56

Big 12:
@Kansas 79, Texas Tech 63
@Iowa St 65, Texas 60 - UT has a problem with just the sheer number of wins and losses they have
@West Virginia 79, Oklahoma 71 - ew
Kansas St 75, @Oklahoma St 57
@Baylor 90, TCU 64

B1G:
@Iowa 74, Michigan 59 - well this is a complication for seeding teams on the 1 line
@Wisconsin 69, Maryland 61
Indiana 79, @Michigan St 75 (OT) - the good news is I get to repeat the same comment I made after the Rutgers loss:  what the fuck Indiana
@Ohio St 76, Rutgers 62
@Illinois 71, Nebraska 64 - get out Nebraska
@Purdue 73, Minnesota 63

Big East:
@Butler 70, Seton Hall 68
@DePaul 67, Providence 55
@Villanova 77, Georgetown 65
@Creighton 76, Xavier 54

SEC:
Tennessee 93, @Texas A&M 76
Kentucky 65, @Florida 54
Arkansas 90, @LSU 89 - here's a modest shocker to me.  Really thought LSU was going to separate from the pack in the SEC
Mississippi St 81, @Ole Miss 75 - Ole Miss in real, real trouble now, IMO
@Auburn 84, Alabama 63

Pac-12 fail tracker:
@Washington 69, UCLA 55

AAC:
Temple 75, @Tulane 67
@Cincinnati 73, SMU 68

A-10:
@VCU 79, George Mason 63

WCC:
@Gonzaga 85, San Diego 69
@St Mary's 86, San Francisco 80 - dammit

elsewhere:
@Bowling Green 92, Buffalo 88 - ah, crap
@Duke 91, St John's 61
@Nevada 93, Boise St 73
@Utah St 82, UNLV 65

1/28 - 1/31 recap

ACC:
Duke 83, @Notre Dame 61
Virginia 66, @NC State 65 (OT) - critical signature win chance goes by the boards
UNC 77, @Ga Tech 54
@Clemson 82, Pitt 69
Virginia Tech 82, @Miami 70
Louisville 82, @Wake 54
Syracuse 77, @BC 71 - I like seeing road teams winning games they should.  Many such instances this week.  Makes my life easier, and makes it much easier to identify which teams aren't serious bubble contenders

B1G:
@Michigan 65, Ohio St 49
@Maryland 70, Northwestern 52
Wisconsin 62, @Nebraska 51 - NU might be in trouble.  It'll kind of depend on how strong the committee thinks the Big 10 is.
@Rutgers 66, Indiana 58 - what the fuck Indiana
@Minnesota 86, Illinois 75
Purdue 99, @Penn St 90 (OT)

Big 12:
@Texas Tech 84, TCU 65
Baylor 77, @Oklahoma 47 - a significant result that should play very well in the NET rankings
@Texas 73, Kansas 63 - is it just me, or can we just reserve all four spots on the 4 line for the top 4 Big 12 teams and call it a day?  I no longer see anyone breaking away from the back.  Big win for Texas by the way.  I have a feeling the raw number of losses they have will matter in the end, though.  But this is a start.
@Iowa St 93, WVU 68

BEast:
Marquette 76, @Butler 58 - time to acknowledge MU as a legit 2 seed threat
Villanova 86, @DePaul 84
@Seton Hall 65, Providence 63
St John's 83, @Creighton 67 - I'm feeling a little bit better about SJU and SHU as teams 3 and 4 in this conference now....but not so good that anyone else makes it
@Georgetown 80, Xavier 73

SEC:
Tennessee 92, @South Carolina 70
Kentucky 87, @Vandy 52
@Alabama 83, Mississippi St 79 - road games are tough.  Bama stays on the bubble, and there's room on the bubble right now if you win your home games.
@Arkansas 70, Georgia 60
LSU 72, @Texas A&M 57 - I didn't expect LSU to be the one to get in line behind UT and UK on the seed list, but here we are
@Florida 90, Ole Miss 86 (OT) - I think Ole Miss is dead team walking, but this may be an early call
@Auburn 92, Missouri 58

AAC:
@Houston 73, Temple 66
@UCF 73, UConn 67

MWC:
Nevada 87, @UNLV 70
Fresno St 75, @Wyoming 62
@Utah St 103, San Jose St 73

Pac-12 fail tracker:
UCLA 87, @Washington St 67
@Washington 75, USC 62
Oregon St 76, @Colorado 74
@Arizona St 95, Arizona 88 (OT) - ok fine ASU can re-enter the bracket again
Oregon 78, @Utah 72 - I don't know, are the Oregon schools the next-best contender after the Arizona schools?

WCC:
Gonzaga 93, @BYU 63

A-10:
@Dayton 75, St Joe's 64
@Duquesne 75, URI 72 - I mention Duquesne because the longer they and George Mason stay in the A-10 race, the more they screw things up for the last remaining at-large contenders

elsewhere:
@Buffalo 83, Ball St 59
Lipscomb 79, @Liberty 59 - Lipscomb takes control of the A-Sun.  Probably not an at-large worthy resume....but a Quad 1 road win is a Quad 1 road win.  Stay tuned.
@Jacksonville St 88, Murray St 68 - well crap, there goes my Murray St love

SoCon watch:
All 4 top teams faced inferior opponents; all 4 held serve.  Status quo in the SoCon

S-CURVE 1/28

- Is it just me, or do the top 2 lines seem really straightforward?
- I was doing fine, finding teams I more or less liked...then I got to the 10 line.  It gets ugly quickly from there.
- SEC is in its best timeline, with 8 teams in.  I would hammer the under if I had to bet on that.
- Pac-12 is in its darkest timeline, with the Arizona schools ejected outta there.  One bit of good news is I see Washington climbing the board, which means they can afford to dole out a couple signature wins to some bubble teams next month.
- A-10 is starting to approach its own darkest timeline.  They're forced to rep George Mason this week, which can't help things.
- By the way, there's some conferences who have no business being on the 14 line, being stuck on the 14 line right now
- Screw it, we're giving the SoCon an at-large bid this week.  We also see Wofford and Murray St well inside the cutline (as conference champs right now), but I wouldn't think much of it.  One loss will crater them pretty hard.

The 1 line:  Tennessee, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Kansas
The 3 line:  Texas Tech, North Carolina, Marquette, Nevada
The 4 line:  Purdue, Houston, Villanova, Iowa St
The 5 line:  Louisville, Virginia Tech, LSU, Wisconsin
The 6 line:  Buffalo, Oklahoma, Maryland, Iowa
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Florida St, Kansas St
The 8 line:  Washington, Auburn, TCU, North Carolina St
The 9 line:  Ohio St, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Syracuse
The 10 line:  Minnesota, Wofford, Murray St, Seton Hall
The 11 line:  St John's, Baylor, Indiana, Alabama
The 12 line:  Florida, Central Florida, VCU, UNC-Greensboro, Hofstra, Lipscomb
The 13 line:  Yale, Northern Kentucky, Texas St, Vermont
The 14 line:  Grand Canyon, George Mason, UAB, Loyola(Chi)
The 15 line:  South Dakota St, UC-Irvine, Radford, Bucknell
The 16 line:  Northern Colorado, Rider, Robert Morris, Sam Houston St, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
St John's
Baylor
Indiana
Alabama

Last 4 in:
Florida
Central Florida
VCU
UNC-Greensboro

Last 4 out:
Arizona
Arizona St
Creighton
Utah St

Next 4 out:
Texas
Butler
Davidson
Temple

Bubble inception - we have to go deeper (these teams have possible, but not probable, paths to an at-large bid):
Oregon
San Francisco
St Louis
Clemson
Providence
USC
Liberty
Pittsburgh

Current NIT bubble starts here (probably too far off the board to be relevant, but historically, there's always a team that comes rocketing out of this group into the field in February):
Memphis
Arkansas
Oregon St
St Mary's
East Tennessee St
Furman
Toledo
Fresno St
Belmont
North Texas
Georgetown
Missouri



Break it down!:
B1G 10
ACC 8
SEC 8
Big 12 7
Big East 4
AAC 3
A-10 2
SoCon 2
Pac-12 1

1/25 - 1/27 recap

B1G:
Michigan 69, @Indiana 46
Illinois 78, @Maryland 67 - your dumb loss of the weekend
Ohio St 70, @Nebraska 60 - and Nebraska isn't as safe as people think.  Big road win for OSU
@Wisconsin 62, Northwestern 46
Rutgers 64, @Penn St 60
@Purdue 73, Michigan St 63 - big deal for seeding purposes.  MSU to the 2 line?  Purdue way up?  I think it's fine to overreact on this result
@Minnesota 92, Iowa 87 - Minny doing the minimum to stay in the bubble race

ACC:
@Duke 66, Georgia Tech 53
Virginia 82, Notre Dame 55
@Virginia Tech 78, Syracuse 56
@NC State 69, Clemson 67
@Louisville 66, Pitt 51
BC 65, @Wake 61
Florida St 78, @Miami 66

Big East:
@Creighton 75, Butler 61
Marquette 87, @Xavier 82
@Villanova 80, Seton Hall 52
@Providence 70, DePaul 67
Georgetown 89, @St John's 78 - now it's time to start worrying about the Big East.  Nova and MU are fine, but it's a real challenge to find a 3rd team right now.  They'll get 3 bids minimum, because someone has to win all these conference games....but good luck figuring out which team that'll be right now

SEC/Big 12 made for TV event:
@Tennessee 83, West Virginia 66
@Kentucky 71, Kansas 63 - a win that should have significant value, even as a home win
@Texas Tech 67, Arkansas 64
Iowa St 87, @Ole Miss 73 - I'm starting to think Ole Miss isn't as safe as people think
@TCU 55, Florida 50
@Baylor 73, Alabama 68
@Georgia 98, Texas 88 - looks like Baylor will be playing the role of Big 12 bubble team, not Texas
@Oklahoma St 74, South Carolina 70 - as a whole, challenge was a net positive to the Big 12, but the only teams really hurt were Texas and Alabama....and they had road losses so the damage isn't too bad
@Texas A&M 65, Kansas St 53 - the one loss that's a bit dicey, but I think KSU will be fine
@Oklahoma 86, Vandy 55

SEC:
@Mississippi St 92, Auburn 84
LSU 86, @Missouri 80

Pac-12 fail tracker:
Washington 79, @Oregon St 69 - we found a trustworthy Pac-12 team!
Utah 82, @Cal 64
@Stanford 75, Colorado 62
@USC 69, Arizona St 67 - oh no
@UCLA 90, Arizona 69 - oh no.  We may have a 1-bid Pac-12 in the near future.  I don't expect it to stick.....but for now, it's there
@Oregon 78, Washington St 58

A-10:
Davidson 54, @St Louis 53 - bad week for SLU.  Good win for Davidson
VCU 80, @Duquesne 74 - and a solid road win here.  A-10 is still on the knife's edge with being a 2-bid league or 1-bid league.  Not sure which direction it'll go

AAC:
Houston 77, @Tulsa 65
Cincinnati 72, @Temple 68 - a big, big win to stabilize Cincy's status, but equally devastating to Temple's chances
@Memphis 77, UCF 57 - and so the 3rd and 4th best teams in the conference lose, de-stabilizing their at-large chances a little bit

MAC:
Buffalo 88, @Kent St 79 - Buffalo back in front as Bowling Green loses

MWC:
Utah St 68, @New Mexico 66
@Colorado St 74, Fresno St 65 - a stumble that can't be afforded for whatever little at-large chance remained

SoCon:
Samford 75, @Furman 73 - ok, time to finally abandon the Furman bandwagon.  It was fun while it lasted guys
@UNCG 88, Mercer 81

WCC:
@San Diego 67, San Fran 63 - we've reached the endgame on the WCC's multi-bid chances

miscellany:
Vermont 73, @Stony Brook 52 - Vermont in control of AEast