SOUTH
@Charlotte
1) Virginia vs. 16) Cal St-Fullerton/Texas Southern
8) Nevada vs. 9) Creighton
@San Diego
4) Texas Tech vs. 13) Charleston
5) Kentucky vs. 12) Marshall
@Nashville
3) Tennessee vs. 14) Bucknell
6) Ohio St vs. 11) Syracuse/Arizona St
@Pittsburgh
2) Cincinnati vs. 15) Penn
7) Seton Hall vs. 10) North Carolina St
WEST
@Detroit
1) Xavier vs. 16) UMBC
8) Virginia Tech vs. 9) Alabama
@San Diego
4) Arizona vs. 13) UNC Greensboro
5) Wichita St vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Wichita
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Montana
6) Texas A&M vs. 11) USC/St Bonaventure
@Charlotte
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Lipscomb
7) TCU vs. 10) UCLA
MIDWEST
@Wichita
1) Kansas vs. 16) Radford
8) Missouri vs. 9) Butler
@Boise
4) Gonzaga vs. 13) South Dakota St
5) Houston vs. 12) Loyola
@Dallas
3) Auburn vs. 14) Wright St
6) Miami vs. 11) San Diego St
@Detroit
2) Purdue vs. 15) Stephen F Austin
7) Providence vs. 10) Oklahoma
EAST
@Pittsburgh
1) Villanova vs. 16) LIU-Brooklyn/North Carolina Central
8) Rhode Island vs. 9) Florida St
@Boise
4) Michigan vs. 13) Murray St
5) Clemson vs. 12) Buffalo
@Dallas
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Iona
6) Florida vs. 11) Davidson
@Nashville
2) Duke vs. 15) Georgia St
7) Arkansas vs. 10) Texas
Sunday, March 11, 2018
3/11 recap
SEC final:
Kentucky 77, Tennessee 72 - makes the call for UT on the 3 line a bit easier
A-10 final:
Davidson 58, Rhode Island 57 - ruh roh
AAC final:
Cincinnati 56, Houston 55
Ivy final:
Penn 68, Harvard 65 - one final bid thief for NIT, which is facing a real crunch...more in a couple hours
Southland final:
Georgia St 74, UT Arlington 61
Kentucky 77, Tennessee 72 - makes the call for UT on the 3 line a bit easier
A-10 final:
Davidson 58, Rhode Island 57 - ruh roh
AAC final:
Cincinnati 56, Houston 55
Ivy final:
Penn 68, Harvard 65 - one final bid thief for NIT, which is facing a real crunch...more in a couple hours
Southland final:
Georgia St 74, UT Arlington 61
3/11 morning bracket
Bracketing has turned into a secondary concern for me....so much depends on the exact order of teams on the S-Curve, so I try not to get too deep into it. It's a futile effort.
I'll revise this later today based on results, naturally.
SOUTH
@Charlotte
1) Virginia vs. 16) Cal St-Fullerton/Texas Southern
8) Creighton vs. 9) Alabama
@San Diego
4) Texas Tech vs. 13) Charleston
5) Kentucky vs. 12) Marshall
@Nashville
3) Tennessee vs. 14) Bucknell
6) Ohio St vs. 11) Louisville/Arizona St
@Pittsburgh
2) Cincinnati vs. 15) Harvard
7) Seton Hall vs. 10) North Carolina St
WEST
@Detroit
1) Xavier vs. 16) UMBC
8) Virginia Tech vs. 9) Nevada
@San Diego
4) Arizona vs. 13) UNC Greensboro
5) Wichita St vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Wichita
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Montana
6) Texas A&M vs. 11) USC/Syracuse
@Charlotte
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Lipscomb
7) TCU vs. 10) UCLA
MIDWEST
@Wichita
1) Kansas vs. 16) Radford
8) Butler vs. 9) Missouri
@Boise
4) Gonzaga vs. 13) South Dakota St
5) Houston vs. 12) Loyola
@Dallas
3) Auburn vs. 14) Wright St
6) Miami vs. 11) San Diego St
@Detroit
2) Purdue vs. 15) Stephen F Austin
7) Providence vs. 10) Oklahoma
EAST
@Pittsburgh
1) Villanova vs. 16) LIU-Brooklyn/North Carolina Central
8) Rhode Island vs. 9) Florida St
@Boise
4) Michigan vs. 13) Murray St
5) Clemson vs. 12) Buffalo
@Dallas
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Iona
6) Florida vs. 11) St Bonaventure
@Nashville
2) Duke vs. 15) Georgia St
7) Arkansas vs. 10) Texas
I'll revise this later today based on results, naturally.
SOUTH
@Charlotte
1) Virginia vs. 16) Cal St-Fullerton/Texas Southern
8) Creighton vs. 9) Alabama
@San Diego
4) Texas Tech vs. 13) Charleston
5) Kentucky vs. 12) Marshall
@Nashville
3) Tennessee vs. 14) Bucknell
6) Ohio St vs. 11) Louisville/Arizona St
@Pittsburgh
2) Cincinnati vs. 15) Harvard
7) Seton Hall vs. 10) North Carolina St
WEST
@Detroit
1) Xavier vs. 16) UMBC
8) Virginia Tech vs. 9) Nevada
@San Diego
4) Arizona vs. 13) UNC Greensboro
5) Wichita St vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Wichita
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Montana
6) Texas A&M vs. 11) USC/Syracuse
@Charlotte
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Lipscomb
7) TCU vs. 10) UCLA
MIDWEST
@Wichita
1) Kansas vs. 16) Radford
8) Butler vs. 9) Missouri
@Boise
4) Gonzaga vs. 13) South Dakota St
5) Houston vs. 12) Loyola
@Dallas
3) Auburn vs. 14) Wright St
6) Miami vs. 11) San Diego St
@Detroit
2) Purdue vs. 15) Stephen F Austin
7) Providence vs. 10) Oklahoma
EAST
@Pittsburgh
1) Villanova vs. 16) LIU-Brooklyn/North Carolina Central
8) Rhode Island vs. 9) Florida St
@Boise
4) Michigan vs. 13) Murray St
5) Clemson vs. 12) Buffalo
@Dallas
3) West Virginia vs. 14) Iona
6) Florida vs. 11) St Bonaventure
@Nashville
2) Duke vs. 15) Georgia St
7) Arkansas vs. 10) Texas
3/11 morning S-CURVE
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
The 2 line: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
The 3 line: Tennessee, Michigan St, Auburn, West Virginia
The 4 line: Michigan, Texas Tech, Arizona, Gonzaga
The 5 line: Clemson, Kentucky, Houston, Wichita St
The 6 line: Ohio St, Florida, Texas A&M, Miami
The 7 line: Arkansas, TCU, Seton Hall, Providence
The 8 line: Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, Butler, Creighton
The 9 line: Missouri, Nevada, Alabama, Florida St
The 10 line: North Carolina St, Texas, Oklahoma, UCLA
The 11 line: St Bonaventure, Louisville, USC, Arizona St, Syracuse, San Diego St
The 12 line: New Mexico St, Loyola(Chi), Buffalo, Marshall
The 13 line: Charleston, South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro
The 14 line: Montana, Bucknell, Wright St, Iona
The 15 line: Georgia St, Harvard, Lipscomb, Stephen F Austin
The 16 line: UMBC, Radford, Cal St-Fullerton, LIU-Brooklyn, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Into the lockbox:
Alabama
Florida St
North Carolina St
Texas
Oklahoma
UCLA
Bubble in:
St Bonaventure
Last 4 in:
Louisville
USC
Arizona St
Syracuse
Last 4 out:
Baylor
Kansas St
Middle Tennessee
St Mary's
Next 2 out:
Oklahoma St
Marquette
Bubble out: Notre Dame, Penn St, Nebraska, Davidson, Oregon, Utah, Washington
Notes:
1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
I feel like these 4 teams are the correct 4, in that order. I don't see much room to argue otherwise.
2: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
UNC and Duke feel obvious at 5 and 6. For the next spot, I'm flip flopping after one day. Here's the deal. In my notes for previous years, I've written a few different times this: "STOP PAYING ATTENTION TO SUNDAY RESULTS". I think Tennessee is going to get boned by this. And their predictive metrics are well behind both Purdue and Cincy. I think the committee SHOULD put UT on the 2 line; I'm starting to think they won't. Purdue and Cincy fill the 2 line.
3: Tennessee, Michigan St, Auburn, West Virginia
I think the 3 line is the perfect compromise for MSU. Now the fun begins as the next wave of teams (Auburn, WVU/TTU, Michigan, Zona) hit the board. I think Auburn wins this battle for a simple reason: the non-con SoS of UM, WVU, and TTU are kind of garbage. WVU then beats out the rest with a useful head-to-head over TTU and a signature win against UVa.
4: Michigan, Texas Tech, Arizona, Gonzaga
I think you can argue to lower Zona some, but the committee is human and will be biased towards a conference champ. Gonzaga's predictive metrics are very good, so we're sticking with them on the 4 line although teams with better wins lurk behind. This is kind of a line of demarcation, as teams with noticeable resume flaws start appearing on the board.
5: Clemson, Kentucky, Houston, Ohio St
It's finally time to admit defeat on my Houston take, and move them up to the 5 line. I can't go further, but I can no longer justify going lower. One team I am now struggling with is Florida. 9 G1 wins is really good, and those 9 wins are legit. However, 5 G2-G3 losses, with some real clunkers, are in there. In a situation where 9 G1 wins contradict with RPI 46 contradict with SoS inside the top 25 contradict with 5 bad losses....I think predictive metrics come into play in these scenarios. Florida is average of 21...right on the 5/6 seed edge. Let's go Wichita St here, admittedly without a lot of conviction. 11 G2 wins, which is an oblong number.
6: Ohio St, Florida, Texas A&M, Miami
After OSU and Florida, my next wave of teams: Miami, TCU, A&M, Arky. TCU has the predictive metrics but lag in most other categories. Miami is the one with the sterling road mark but also the one with a very marginal average RPI win. However, I have 2 SEC teams on the 3 line and 1 on the 6 line already. So if I go A&M and Arky, I'll have to move one down a seed line anyways. A&M and Miami it is, with the caveat that this is a spot I want to revisit tomorrow.
7: Arkansas, TCU, Seton Hall, Providence
I wanted to argue for putting Seton Hall in that category above, but they lack the signature win required to get that high up, IMO. The last spot here is where things turn ugly. I surely can't put Providence here with some of their losses, right? URI beat Provi heads-up...tempting. Butler and Creighton are both sitting there too....nah, URI. I think.
8: Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, Butler, Creighton
Slotting VaTech in here really makes me nervous. That non-con SoS is 326. Warning sirens are going off. But they have 4 signature wins, and mostly avoided the bad losses. I guess they gotta be in, but this could absolutely be a situation where they get ejected right out of the tournament from left field tomorrow. Stay alert out there. And now I just ran into ANOTHER situation where if I put my next 2 teams (Butler, Creighton) up on the 8-9 lines, I have to procedure one of them up to 7 or down to 10 because of conference conflicts (I already have Provi, Villanova, and Xavier in 3 of the 4 regionals). So I'm going to switch URI and Providence back on the 7 line, and Butler and Creighton both go to the 8.
9: Missouri, Nevada, Alabama, Florida St
Rough tumble for Nevada down the bracket, they seem to fit in here. After that? I hit a wall. All of a sudden some of these teams are very flawed. I'm moving Alabama all the way up to here. Why? SoS 3, average RPI win of 86. There are legit flaws in the resume, just in the sheer number of losses and the road record (2 true road wins!). But some of these other teams have major SoS issues and the committee will lean towards SoS when given the option. I don't feel good about this seed, at all.
10: North Carolina St, Texas, Oklahoma, UCLA
I'm going to use Oklahoma here. I'm not thrilled by it, but the overall body of work is good enough to avoid getting too close to the cutline. I'm also not excited to burn Texas in this spot, but again it's another resume I don't think anyone can afford to leave out of the bracket. Both of these resumes are better than K-State's when you really analyze them; not sure how anyone can think otherwise. Yes, I know K-State has H2H advantages on all these Big 12 bubble teams; the rest of the games count too, though. UCLA gets the next nod for one simple reason: they're the 2nd best Pac-12 team and the committee is human and will not want to wait longer to put a Pac-12 team on the board.
11: St Bonaventure, Louisville, USC, Arizona St, Syracuse, San Diego St
Let's reset. 5 spots to go. K-State, OSU, Baylor, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, USC, Arizona St, Bonaventure, MTSU, and St Mary's are the reasonable choices to pick from. We're at the point where if any of these teams miss or make, I can see it happening (the teams above, UCLA and Texas and Oklahoma, I can't see missing completely). When you get to this point, the committee punishes non-con SoS disproportionally. Negative marks to OSU and KSU. The committee is human; they'll see RPI. I reluctantly put Bonaventure, UL, and USC in. Fuck, I don't know. I think they have to put ASU in. So many of these other teams have SoS problems, they have 2 signature wins, timing of losses don't matter anymore. And I'm covering my eyes at Baylor's road record and putting them in. Wait, no. That road record is hideous. St Mary's and MT are so much better. Wait, Marquette is .500 there. Syracuse and MT have the terrific non-con SoSs. Fuck. I don't know. Syracuse barely over Baylor.
12: New Mexico St, Loyola(Chi), Buffalo, Marshall
SDSU wins the battle over NMSU to move up to the 11 line. Buffalo benefits from the attrition elsewhere to stick on this line, and I'll take Marshall over everyone else below based on a pocketful of quality wins.
Bubble out: Baylor, Kansas St, Middle Tenenssee, St Mary's, Oklahoma St, Marquette
Did I really just drop St Mary's that far? Yikes. It doesn't feel right. I'm getting scary vibes from the committee about road games. Since it's baked into the Groups now, we're hearing less and less about the raw number of road wins being important. Trouble for them and Middle Tennessee. I've had Marquette in for awhile; it's really tight at the end of this bubble. K-State is apparently a hill I'm going to die on. I don't feel good about any of this.
Saturday, March 10, 2018
3/10 recap
ACC final:
Virginia 71, North Carolina 63 - this should probably set the 1 line for good, with Xavier as the 4th 1. There's a question of who goes west with X as the 2 seed, and I'm thinking the committee will send #5 overall (in my case, UNC) over there
Big East final:
Villanova 76, Providence 66 (OT) - Provi should settle around the 7 line, maybe 8
Big 12 final:
Kansas 81, West Virginia 70 - likely will not impact anyone's seed
Pac-12 final:
Arizona 75, USC 61 - I'm not sure USC is completely safe. Then again, there's like 12 teams I feel like I can say that about, so I don't know. This needs a good seed scrubbing
SEC semis:
Kentucky 86, Alabama 63 - are we sure Alabama is safe, guys? I'm still not sure. Then again, you know my feeling on this year's bubble. It's wiiiiide
Tennessee 84, Arkansas 66 - I'm feeling pretty good about UT on the 2 line, to be honest
AAC semis:
Cincinnati 70, Memphis 60
Houston 77, Wichita St 74 - a pretty important get for Houston, which IS battling non-con SoS issues on their resume and can use these wins to mask that problem
A-10 semis:
Rhode Island 90, St Joseph's 87
Davidson 82, St Bonaventure 70 - are we sure Bonaventure is home free? And Davidson needed this to get off the NIT bubble, if that's your thing
Mountain West final:
San Diego St 82, New Mexico 75
A-East final:
UMBC 65, Vermont 62 - sigh
Big Sky final:
Montana 82, Eastern Washington 65
Southland final:
Stephen F Austin 59, SE Louisiana 55
MAC final:
Buffalo 76, Toledo 66
WAC final:
New Mexico St 72, Grand Canyon 58
Sun Belt semis:
UT Arlington 71, Louisiana 68 - sigh
Georgia St 73, Georgia Southern 67
Ivy semis:
Harvard 74, Cornell 55
Penn 80, Yale 57
MEAC final:
North Carolina Central 71, Hampton 63 - no sigh for the 1 seed losing here because the conference standings were a mess all year in this conference
SWAC final:
Texas Southern 84, UAPB 69
Big West final:
Cal St-Fullerton 71, UC Irvine 55
Virginia 71, North Carolina 63 - this should probably set the 1 line for good, with Xavier as the 4th 1. There's a question of who goes west with X as the 2 seed, and I'm thinking the committee will send #5 overall (in my case, UNC) over there
Big East final:
Villanova 76, Providence 66 (OT) - Provi should settle around the 7 line, maybe 8
Big 12 final:
Kansas 81, West Virginia 70 - likely will not impact anyone's seed
Pac-12 final:
Arizona 75, USC 61 - I'm not sure USC is completely safe. Then again, there's like 12 teams I feel like I can say that about, so I don't know. This needs a good seed scrubbing
SEC semis:
Kentucky 86, Alabama 63 - are we sure Alabama is safe, guys? I'm still not sure. Then again, you know my feeling on this year's bubble. It's wiiiiide
Tennessee 84, Arkansas 66 - I'm feeling pretty good about UT on the 2 line, to be honest
AAC semis:
Cincinnati 70, Memphis 60
Houston 77, Wichita St 74 - a pretty important get for Houston, which IS battling non-con SoS issues on their resume and can use these wins to mask that problem
A-10 semis:
Rhode Island 90, St Joseph's 87
Davidson 82, St Bonaventure 70 - are we sure Bonaventure is home free? And Davidson needed this to get off the NIT bubble, if that's your thing
Mountain West final:
San Diego St 82, New Mexico 75
A-East final:
UMBC 65, Vermont 62 - sigh
Big Sky final:
Montana 82, Eastern Washington 65
Southland final:
Stephen F Austin 59, SE Louisiana 55
MAC final:
Buffalo 76, Toledo 66
WAC final:
New Mexico St 72, Grand Canyon 58
Sun Belt semis:
UT Arlington 71, Louisiana 68 - sigh
Georgia St 73, Georgia Southern 67
Ivy semis:
Harvard 74, Cornell 55
Penn 80, Yale 57
MEAC final:
North Carolina Central 71, Hampton 63 - no sigh for the 1 seed losing here because the conference standings were a mess all year in this conference
SWAC final:
Texas Southern 84, UAPB 69
Big West final:
Cal St-Fullerton 71, UC Irvine 55
3/10 S-CURVE
Pressure point 1: The 2 line, #7 overall - made the move for Tennessee in that spot. I do firmly believe committee bias will elevate a SEC champion to the 2 line, and UT takes Auburn's spot. Subject to change. And I really wrestled with Purdue and Michigan St for that last spot. What changed my mind? I see Jerry Palm is an outlier, having Michigan St on the 2 line. This single piece of evidence is all the motivation I need to talk myself out of that particular take. MSU demotion it is. Meanwhile, I really want to put Cincy on the 2 line, but I don't think I can sustain a healthy argument for them ahead of the aforementioned teams right now.
Pressure point 2: The 3 line, #12 overall - made the move to WVU over Michigan. Reasonable arguments can be made for either, and both have their non-con SoS problem. Behind them, conference champs Arizona and Gonzaga don't have enough to pass either.
Pressure point 3: The 5 line, #20 overall - toyed with a few different teams in that spot, but no one felt right. In the end, wanted to move Kentucky there as they were my next team...and Florida swept them. For now, I'm staying on Florida, but I don't feel good about it.
Pressure point 4: The 7 line, #28 overall - strangely, I feel good about the teams on the 6 line and 7 line right now, up to #28 overall. There's a bit of a roadblock here, where all the teams I could put there seem to...have flaws. With that, I've decided to make a very aggressive move and launch Provi up 2 full seed lines.
Pressure point 5: The 9 line, #34 overall - this is where I threw my hands up. I don't know. Throw 'em all into a bucket and pick them out. There's going to be some severly flawed teams on the 9 line. Best guess is the ACC and Big 12 gets the benefit of the doubt. I clustered them all together from 34 through 38 in an act of defiance.
There are some very alarming SoS numbers in this group. I'm looking at Va Tech and FSU here.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
The 2 line: North Carolina, Duke, Tennessee, Purdue
The 3 line: Michigan St, Cincinnati, Auburn, West Virginia
The 4 line: Michigan, Texas Tech, Arizona, Gonzaga
The 5 line: Clemson, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
The 6 line: Kentucky, Miami, TCU, Arkansas
The 7 line: Houston, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Providence
The 8 line: Rhode Island, Creighton, Butler, Nevada
The 9 line: Missouri, Virginia Tech, Florida St, Texas
The 10 line: North Carolina St, Oklahoma, USC, St Mary's
The 11 line: St Bonaventure, UCLA, Alabama, Baylor, Louisville, New Mexico St
The 12 line: Loyola(Chi), Western Kentucky, Buffalo, Charleston
The 13 line: South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro, New Mexico
The 14 line: Louisiana, Vermont, Montana, Bucknell
The 15 line: Iona, Wright St, Lipscomb, Harvard
The 16 line: Radford, UC Irvine, SE Louisiana, LIU-Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Current bubble status: 18 for 12 spots
Bubble in:
Virginia Tech
Florida St
Texas
North Carolina St
Next 4 in:
Oklahoma
USC
St Mary's
St Bonaventure
Last 4 in:
UCLA
Alabama
Baylor
Louisville
Last 4 out:
Marquette
Kansas St
Middle Tennessee
Arizona St
Next 2 out:
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
off the board: Notre Dame, Penn St, Nebraska, Oregon, Utah, Georgia, Boise St, Washington, Mississippi St
NIT lines:
2: Notre Dame, Penn St
3: Nebraska, Oregon, Utah, Georgia
4: Boise St, Washington, Mississippi St, Northeastern
5: Maryland, Stanford, BYU, Davidson
6: San Diego St, Tulsa
--probable cutline--
Last 4 out: Temple, Old Dominion, Toledo, Boston College
autobid: Rider, UC Davis, UNC Asheville, Northern Kentucky, Wagner, FGCU
Pressure point 2: The 3 line, #12 overall - made the move to WVU over Michigan. Reasonable arguments can be made for either, and both have their non-con SoS problem. Behind them, conference champs Arizona and Gonzaga don't have enough to pass either.
Pressure point 3: The 5 line, #20 overall - toyed with a few different teams in that spot, but no one felt right. In the end, wanted to move Kentucky there as they were my next team...and Florida swept them. For now, I'm staying on Florida, but I don't feel good about it.
Pressure point 4: The 7 line, #28 overall - strangely, I feel good about the teams on the 6 line and 7 line right now, up to #28 overall. There's a bit of a roadblock here, where all the teams I could put there seem to...have flaws. With that, I've decided to make a very aggressive move and launch Provi up 2 full seed lines.
Pressure point 5: The 9 line, #34 overall - this is where I threw my hands up. I don't know. Throw 'em all into a bucket and pick them out. There's going to be some severly flawed teams on the 9 line. Best guess is the ACC and Big 12 gets the benefit of the doubt. I clustered them all together from 34 through 38 in an act of defiance.
There are some very alarming SoS numbers in this group. I'm looking at Va Tech and FSU here.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
The 2 line: North Carolina, Duke, Tennessee, Purdue
The 3 line: Michigan St, Cincinnati, Auburn, West Virginia
The 4 line: Michigan, Texas Tech, Arizona, Gonzaga
The 5 line: Clemson, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
The 6 line: Kentucky, Miami, TCU, Arkansas
The 7 line: Houston, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Providence
The 8 line: Rhode Island, Creighton, Butler, Nevada
The 9 line: Missouri, Virginia Tech, Florida St, Texas
The 10 line: North Carolina St, Oklahoma, USC, St Mary's
The 11 line: St Bonaventure, UCLA, Alabama, Baylor, Louisville, New Mexico St
The 12 line: Loyola(Chi), Western Kentucky, Buffalo, Charleston
The 13 line: South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro, New Mexico
The 14 line: Louisiana, Vermont, Montana, Bucknell
The 15 line: Iona, Wright St, Lipscomb, Harvard
The 16 line: Radford, UC Irvine, SE Louisiana, LIU-Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Current bubble status: 18 for 12 spots
Bubble in:
Virginia Tech
Florida St
Texas
North Carolina St
Next 4 in:
Oklahoma
USC
St Mary's
St Bonaventure
Last 4 in:
UCLA
Alabama
Baylor
Louisville
Last 4 out:
Marquette
Kansas St
Middle Tennessee
Arizona St
Next 2 out:
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
off the board: Notre Dame, Penn St, Nebraska, Oregon, Utah, Georgia, Boise St, Washington, Mississippi St
NIT lines:
2: Notre Dame, Penn St
3: Nebraska, Oregon, Utah, Georgia
4: Boise St, Washington, Mississippi St, Northeastern
5: Maryland, Stanford, BYU, Davidson
6: San Diego St, Tulsa
--probable cutline--
Last 4 out: Temple, Old Dominion, Toledo, Boston College
autobid: Rider, UC Davis, UNC Asheville, Northern Kentucky, Wagner, FGCU
Friday, March 9, 2018
3/9 recap
ACC semis:
Virginia 64, Clemson 58
North Carolina 74, Duke 69 - is America ready to make a 11-7 ACC team a #1 seed? I'm not sure, and neither am I. Still, the conversation will have to commence
Big East semis:
Villanova 87, Butler 68 - this probably locks Villanova into #2 overall, and into a precious precious spot in the East regional
Providence 75, Xavier 72 (OT) - we're going to need to have a real talk about UNC vs. Xavier on the 1 line
Big 12 semis:
Kansas 83, Kansas St 67 - probably endgame for K-State. I can't see an obvious path to an at-large for them
West Virginia 66, Texas Tech 63 - a very useful result for seeding purposes
SEC semis:
Tennessee 62, Mississippi St 59
Arkansas 80, Florida 72 - um, can someone tell me what to do with the 5 line and Florida's old spot? Probably Kentucky goes there now, but I'm not too excited about that
Alabama 81, Auburn 63 - well that's really making sure you play your way off the bubble. Just can't leave them out at this point
Kentucky 62, Georgia 49 - and here we are, UK slowly creeping back up the seed list at the end
Pac-12 semis:
Arizona 78, UCLA 67 (OT)
USC 74, Oregon 54
AAC quarters:
Cincinnati 61, SMU 51
Memphis 67, Tulsa 64 - NIT bubble implications!
Wichita St 89, Temple 81
Houston 84, UCF 56
MWC semis:
San Diego St 90, Nevada 73 - ...wait, what?
New Mexico 83, Utah St 68
A-10 quarters:
Rhode Island 76, VCU 67
St Joseph's 68, George Mason 49
St Bonaventure 83, Richmond 77
Davidson 78, St Louis 60
CUSA semis:
Marshall 85, Southern Miss 75
Western Kentucky 57, Old Dominion 49
MAC semis:
Buffalo 78, Kent St 61
Toledo 64, Eastern Michigan 63
Sun Belt quarters:
Louisiana 80, Texas St 54
UT Arlington 84, Appalachian St 68
Georgia St 73, Troy 51
Georgia Southern 63, Louisiana-Monroe 55
SWAC semis:
UAPB 71, Southern 65
Texas Southern 88, Prairie View A&M 74
Southland semis:
SE Louisiana 89, Sam Houston St 79
Stephen F Austin 78, Nicholls St 66
MEAC semis:
Hampton 96, NC A&T 86
North Carolina Central 79, Morgan St 70
Big Sky semis:
Montana 91, Northern Colorado 89 (OT)
Eastern Washington 82, Southern Utah 70
WAC semis:
Grand Canyon 75, Utah Valley 60
New Mexico St 84, Seattle 79 - please win tomorrow NMSU
Big West semis:
Cal St-Fullerton 55, UC Davis 52
UC Irvine 61, UC Santa Barbara 58
Virginia 64, Clemson 58
North Carolina 74, Duke 69 - is America ready to make a 11-7 ACC team a #1 seed? I'm not sure, and neither am I. Still, the conversation will have to commence
Big East semis:
Villanova 87, Butler 68 - this probably locks Villanova into #2 overall, and into a precious precious spot in the East regional
Providence 75, Xavier 72 (OT) - we're going to need to have a real talk about UNC vs. Xavier on the 1 line
Big 12 semis:
Kansas 83, Kansas St 67 - probably endgame for K-State. I can't see an obvious path to an at-large for them
West Virginia 66, Texas Tech 63 - a very useful result for seeding purposes
SEC semis:
Tennessee 62, Mississippi St 59
Arkansas 80, Florida 72 - um, can someone tell me what to do with the 5 line and Florida's old spot? Probably Kentucky goes there now, but I'm not too excited about that
Alabama 81, Auburn 63 - well that's really making sure you play your way off the bubble. Just can't leave them out at this point
Kentucky 62, Georgia 49 - and here we are, UK slowly creeping back up the seed list at the end
Pac-12 semis:
Arizona 78, UCLA 67 (OT)
USC 74, Oregon 54
AAC quarters:
Cincinnati 61, SMU 51
Memphis 67, Tulsa 64 - NIT bubble implications!
Wichita St 89, Temple 81
Houston 84, UCF 56
MWC semis:
San Diego St 90, Nevada 73 - ...wait, what?
New Mexico 83, Utah St 68
A-10 quarters:
Rhode Island 76, VCU 67
St Joseph's 68, George Mason 49
St Bonaventure 83, Richmond 77
Davidson 78, St Louis 60
CUSA semis:
Marshall 85, Southern Miss 75
Western Kentucky 57, Old Dominion 49
MAC semis:
Buffalo 78, Kent St 61
Toledo 64, Eastern Michigan 63
Sun Belt quarters:
Louisiana 80, Texas St 54
UT Arlington 84, Appalachian St 68
Georgia St 73, Troy 51
Georgia Southern 63, Louisiana-Monroe 55
SWAC semis:
UAPB 71, Southern 65
Texas Southern 88, Prairie View A&M 74
Southland semis:
SE Louisiana 89, Sam Houston St 79
Stephen F Austin 78, Nicholls St 66
MEAC semis:
Hampton 96, NC A&T 86
North Carolina Central 79, Morgan St 70
Big Sky semis:
Montana 91, Northern Colorado 89 (OT)
Eastern Washington 82, Southern Utah 70
WAC semis:
Grand Canyon 75, Utah Valley 60
New Mexico St 84, Seattle 79 - please win tomorrow NMSU
Big West semis:
Cal St-Fullerton 55, UC Davis 52
UC Irvine 61, UC Santa Barbara 58
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