I need to really, really scrub this bubble. I'm not feeling great about almost any combination of teams you can put in Dayton.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
The 2 line: North Carolina, Duke, Auburn, Michigan St
The 3 line: Tennessee, Purdue, Cincinnati, Michigan
The 4 line: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Arizona
The 5 line: Clemson, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
The 6 line: Miami, TCU, Kentucky, Texas A&M
The 7 line: Seton Hall, Houston, Arkansas, Butler
The 8 line: Creighton, Nevada, Missouri, Rhode Island
The 9 line: Florida St, Texas, Virginia Tech, Providence
The 10 line: St Mary's, North Carolina St, Oklahoma, St Bonaventure
The 11 line: USC, UCLA, Marquette, Baylor, Louisville, Kansas St
The 12 line: Loyola(Chi), New Mexico St, Buffalo, Charleston
The 13 line: Old Dominion, South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro
The 14 line: Louisiana, Vermont, Bucknell, Montana
The 15 line: Wright St, UC-Davis, Iona, Lipscomb
The 16 line: Harvard, Radford, SE Louisiana, LIU Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Next 4 in:
Oklahoma
St Bonaventure
USC
UCLA
Last 4 in:
Marquette
Baylor
Louisville
Kansas St
Last 4 out:
Alabama
Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma St
Arizona St
Next 5 out:
Syracuse
Oregon
Notre Dame
Penn St
Nebraska
Friday, March 9, 2018
3/8 recap
ACC quarters:
Virginia 75, Louisville 58
Duke 88, Notre Dame 70 - ok, can we put away Notre Dame for the year? No one disputes they pass the eye test, but they just don't pass the resume test. At all. Can't do it
North Carolina 82, Miami 65 - UNC/Duke playing for #5 overall on the S-Curve, and for a chance at the 1 line
Clemson 90, Boston College 82
Big 12 quarters:
Kansas 82, Oklahoma St 68 - OSU is now a team I'm scared to make a call on. True bubbler
Texas Tech 73, Texas 69 - Texas too for that matter. By the way, seeding Tech with their poor non-con SoS is no easy task either
West Virginia 78, Baylor 65
Kansas St 66, TCU 64 (OT) - oh boy. I felt very confident Kansas St had the 9th best profile in the Big 12 entering today, but this win complicates that projection...
SEC 2nd round:
Alabama 71, Texas A&M 70 - I'm still inclined to think Bama needs one more, but it's close now
Georgia 62, Missouri 60 - now, what do you do with Mizzou?
Mississippi St 80, LSU 77 - go away MSU
Arkansas 69, South Carolina 64
Big East quarters:
Villanova 94, Marquette 70
Xavier 88, St John's 60
Providence 72, Creighton 68 (OT) - I may have seeded Creighton a bit aggressively
Butler 75, Seton Hall 74
Pac-12 quarters:
Arizona 83, Colorado 67
UCLA 88, Stanford 77 - this should mean UCLA is home free
USC 61, Oregon St 48 - probably USC too
Oregon 68, Utah 66 - Oregon needs another one after this
AAC 1st round:
SMU 80, UConn 73
Memphis 79, South Florida 77
Temple 82, Tulane 77 - NIT bubble game!
UCF 66, East Carolina 52
MWC quarters:
Nevada 79, UNLV 74
San Diego St 64, Fresno St 52 - NIT bubble game!
Utah St 78, Boise St 75 - well that's one bubble team we can discard
New Mexico 85, Wyoming 75
A-10 2nd round:
VCU 77, Dayton 72
George Mason 80, UMass 75
Richmond 81, Duquesne 68
St Louis 70, George Washington 63
CUSA quarters:
Southern Miss 77, Middle Tennessee 68 (OT) - OH NO
Marshall 95, UT San Antonio 81
Old Dominion 62, Louisiana Tech 58
Western Kentucky 98, UAB 70
MAC quarters:
Buffalo 89, Central Michigan 74
Kent St 76, Ball St 73
Toledo 71, Miami(OH) 69
Eastern Michigan 67, Akron 58
WAC quarters:
Grand Canyon 77, UMKC 74
Utah Valley 81, Cal St Bakersfield 74
New Mexico St 97, Chicago St 70
Seattle 77, UTRGV 60
Big West quarters:
UC Davis 70, UC Riverside 66
Cal St Fullerton 76, Long Beach St 74
UC Irvine 68, Hawaii 67
UC Santa Barbara 75, Cal Poly 53
Big Sky quarters:
Montana 84, North Dakota 76
Northern Colorado 80, Weber St 55
Southern Utah 92, Idaho 78
Eastern Washington 78, Portland St 72
Southland 2nd round:
Sam Houston St 85, New Orleans 63
Stephen F Austin 86, Central Arkansas 64
MEAC quarters:
North Carolina Central 58, Savannah St 56
North Carolina A&T 70, Norfolk St 64
Virginia 75, Louisville 58
Duke 88, Notre Dame 70 - ok, can we put away Notre Dame for the year? No one disputes they pass the eye test, but they just don't pass the resume test. At all. Can't do it
North Carolina 82, Miami 65 - UNC/Duke playing for #5 overall on the S-Curve, and for a chance at the 1 line
Clemson 90, Boston College 82
Big 12 quarters:
Kansas 82, Oklahoma St 68 - OSU is now a team I'm scared to make a call on. True bubbler
Texas Tech 73, Texas 69 - Texas too for that matter. By the way, seeding Tech with their poor non-con SoS is no easy task either
West Virginia 78, Baylor 65
Kansas St 66, TCU 64 (OT) - oh boy. I felt very confident Kansas St had the 9th best profile in the Big 12 entering today, but this win complicates that projection...
SEC 2nd round:
Alabama 71, Texas A&M 70 - I'm still inclined to think Bama needs one more, but it's close now
Georgia 62, Missouri 60 - now, what do you do with Mizzou?
Mississippi St 80, LSU 77 - go away MSU
Arkansas 69, South Carolina 64
Big East quarters:
Villanova 94, Marquette 70
Xavier 88, St John's 60
Providence 72, Creighton 68 (OT) - I may have seeded Creighton a bit aggressively
Butler 75, Seton Hall 74
Pac-12 quarters:
Arizona 83, Colorado 67
UCLA 88, Stanford 77 - this should mean UCLA is home free
USC 61, Oregon St 48 - probably USC too
Oregon 68, Utah 66 - Oregon needs another one after this
AAC 1st round:
SMU 80, UConn 73
Memphis 79, South Florida 77
Temple 82, Tulane 77 - NIT bubble game!
UCF 66, East Carolina 52
MWC quarters:
Nevada 79, UNLV 74
San Diego St 64, Fresno St 52 - NIT bubble game!
Utah St 78, Boise St 75 - well that's one bubble team we can discard
New Mexico 85, Wyoming 75
A-10 2nd round:
VCU 77, Dayton 72
George Mason 80, UMass 75
Richmond 81, Duquesne 68
St Louis 70, George Washington 63
CUSA quarters:
Southern Miss 77, Middle Tennessee 68 (OT) - OH NO
Marshall 95, UT San Antonio 81
Old Dominion 62, Louisiana Tech 58
Western Kentucky 98, UAB 70
MAC quarters:
Buffalo 89, Central Michigan 74
Kent St 76, Ball St 73
Toledo 71, Miami(OH) 69
Eastern Michigan 67, Akron 58
WAC quarters:
Grand Canyon 77, UMKC 74
Utah Valley 81, Cal St Bakersfield 74
New Mexico St 97, Chicago St 70
Seattle 77, UTRGV 60
Big West quarters:
UC Davis 70, UC Riverside 66
Cal St Fullerton 76, Long Beach St 74
UC Irvine 68, Hawaii 67
UC Santa Barbara 75, Cal Poly 53
Big Sky quarters:
Montana 84, North Dakota 76
Northern Colorado 80, Weber St 55
Southern Utah 92, Idaho 78
Eastern Washington 78, Portland St 72
Southland 2nd round:
Sam Houston St 85, New Orleans 63
Stephen F Austin 86, Central Arkansas 64
MEAC quarters:
North Carolina Central 58, Savannah St 56
North Carolina A&T 70, Norfolk St 64
Thursday, March 8, 2018
Ivy League tournament preview
This is part 32 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Harvard 12-2
Penn 12-2
Yale 9-5
Cornell 6-8
Princeton 5-9
Columbia 5-9
Brown 4-10
Dartmouth 3-11
Format:
Only top 4 play. The Palestra hosts, so advantage to Penn for home courtism.
Matchups:
1) Harvard vs. 4) Cornell
2) Penn vs. 3) Yale
The stakes:
Down year for the Ivy, back to CRPI 24. You can safely put the winner on the 15 line and forget about them, unless Yale or Cornell win. Then you can send them to Dayton.
Yale is CIT eligible beyond the top 2. Whoopee.
Standings:
Harvard 12-2
Penn 12-2
Yale 9-5
Cornell 6-8
Princeton 5-9
Columbia 5-9
Brown 4-10
Dartmouth 3-11
Format:
Only top 4 play. The Palestra hosts, so advantage to Penn for home courtism.
Matchups:
1) Harvard vs. 4) Cornell
2) Penn vs. 3) Yale
The stakes:
Down year for the Ivy, back to CRPI 24. You can safely put the winner on the 15 line and forget about them, unless Yale or Cornell win. Then you can send them to Dayton.
Yale is CIT eligible beyond the top 2. Whoopee.
Big West conference tournament preview
This is part 31 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
UC Davis 12-4
UC Santa Barbara 11-5
UC Irvine 11-5
Cal St-Fullerton 10-6
Long Beach St 9-7
Hawaii 8-8
Cal Poly 4-12
UC Riverside 4-12
Cal St-Northridge 3-13
Format:
They kicked out the last place team. Top 8 go to Anaheim. March 8-10.
Matchups:
1) UC Davis vs. 8) UC Riverside
4) Cal St Fullerton vs. 5) Long Beach St
3) UC Irvine vs. 6) Hawaii
2) UC Santa Barbara vs. 7) Cal Poly
The stakes:
After a horrific year, the league finally acted like they didn't suck. This will get them off the 16 line this year, in all likelihood. On the other hand, I feel very strongly that there's no chance anyone gets higher than a 15 seed. They're all more or less the same.
UCSB, UCI, CSUF, LBSU, lots 'o acronyms for lots 'o CIT eligible teams.
Standings:
UC Davis 12-4
UC Santa Barbara 11-5
UC Irvine 11-5
Cal St-Fullerton 10-6
Long Beach St 9-7
Hawaii 8-8
Cal Poly 4-12
UC Riverside 4-12
Cal St-Northridge 3-13
Format:
They kicked out the last place team. Top 8 go to Anaheim. March 8-10.
Matchups:
1) UC Davis vs. 8) UC Riverside
4) Cal St Fullerton vs. 5) Long Beach St
3) UC Irvine vs. 6) Hawaii
2) UC Santa Barbara vs. 7) Cal Poly
The stakes:
After a horrific year, the league finally acted like they didn't suck. This will get them off the 16 line this year, in all likelihood. On the other hand, I feel very strongly that there's no chance anyone gets higher than a 15 seed. They're all more or less the same.
UCSB, UCI, CSUF, LBSU, lots 'o acronyms for lots 'o CIT eligible teams.
3/8 S-CURVE
Subject to change, all of it, but I need to get something up before today's games start.
Pretty wide bubble. I'm starting it at Florida St right now. Right now it's 27 teams playing for 15 spots in my book. Not feeling great about some of those teams on the 9 line, but do feel like we have about seven or eight teams worthy of an 11 seed.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
The 2 line: North Carolina, Duke, Auburn, Michigan St
The 3 line: Tennessee, Purdue, Cincinnati, Michigan
The 4 line: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Arizona
The 5 line: Clemson, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
The 6 line: Miami, TCU, Kentucky, Texas A&M
The 7 line: Seton Hall, Creighton, Houston, Arkansas
The 8 line: Missouri, Butler, Nevada, Florida St
The 9 line: Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia Tech, St Mary's
The 10 line: Providence, North Carolina St, Oklahoma, St Bonaventure
The 11 line: USC, UCLA, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Baylor
The 12 line: Louisville, Oklahoma St, Loyola(Chi), New Mexico St, Buffalo
The 13 line: Charleston, South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro
The 14 line: Louisiana, Vermont, Bucknell, Montana
The 15 line: Wright St, UC-Davis, Iona, Lipscomb
The 16 line: Harvard, Radford, SE Louisiana, LIU Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Next 4 in:
Oklahoma
St Bonaventure
USC
UCLA
Last 4 in:
Marquette
Baylor
Louisville
Oklahoma St
Last 4 out:
Kansas St
Arizona St
Syracuse
Alabama
Next 4 out:
Notre Dame
Utah
Penn St
Nebraska
Pretty wide bubble. I'm starting it at Florida St right now. Right now it's 27 teams playing for 15 spots in my book. Not feeling great about some of those teams on the 9 line, but do feel like we have about seven or eight teams worthy of an 11 seed.
The 1 line: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
The 2 line: North Carolina, Duke, Auburn, Michigan St
The 3 line: Tennessee, Purdue, Cincinnati, Michigan
The 4 line: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Arizona
The 5 line: Clemson, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
The 6 line: Miami, TCU, Kentucky, Texas A&M
The 7 line: Seton Hall, Creighton, Houston, Arkansas
The 8 line: Missouri, Butler, Nevada, Florida St
The 9 line: Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia Tech, St Mary's
The 10 line: Providence, North Carolina St, Oklahoma, St Bonaventure
The 11 line: USC, UCLA, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Baylor
The 12 line: Louisville, Oklahoma St, Loyola(Chi), New Mexico St, Buffalo
The 13 line: Charleston, South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro
The 14 line: Louisiana, Vermont, Bucknell, Montana
The 15 line: Wright St, UC-Davis, Iona, Lipscomb
The 16 line: Harvard, Radford, SE Louisiana, LIU Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Next 4 in:
Oklahoma
St Bonaventure
USC
UCLA
Last 4 in:
Marquette
Baylor
Louisville
Oklahoma St
Last 4 out:
Kansas St
Arizona St
Syracuse
Alabama
Next 4 out:
Notre Dame
Utah
Penn St
Nebraska
3/7 recap
ACC 2nd round:
North Carolina 78, Syracuse 59 - and thus dies Syracuse
Louisville 82, Florida St 74 - the ACC bubble just got a lot more complicated
Boston College 91, NC State 87 - um, I'm not completely convinced NC State is safe. Look at that non-con SoS boys
Notre Dame 71, Virginia Tech 65 - ditto Va Tech, although their resume might be good enough. We're one win away from really talking about Notre Dame
Pac-12 1st round:
Colorado 97, Arizona St 85 - oh boy
Stanford 76, Cal 58
Oregon St 69, Washington 66 (OT) - well that's convenient, we can get rid of UW
Oregon 64, Washington St 62 (OT) - man, I was hoping we could get rid of Oregon too. Pac-12 almost did the bubble work for us
SEC 1st round:
Georgia 78, Vanderbilt 62
South Carolina 85, Ole Miss 84
Big 12 1st round:
Oklahoma St 71, Oklahoma 60 - is everyone okay with a 9-bid conference? Just checking
Texas 68, Iowa St 64
Big East 1st round:
St John's 88, Georgetown 77
Marquette 72, DePaul 69
Patriot final:
Bucknell 83, Colgate 54
A-10 1st round:
UMass 69, LaSalle 67
George Washington 78, Fordham 72
Mountain West 1st round:
UNLV 97, Air Force 90
Utah St 76, Colorado St 65
Wyoming 74, San Jose St 61
CUSA 1st round:
Southern Miss 69, Florida International 68
UTSA 71, UTEP 58
Louisiana Tech 68, North Texas 62
UAB 83, Florida Atlantic 72
Sun Belt 1st round:
Texas St 73, Coastal Carolina 66
Appalachian St 93, UALR 64
Troy 69, South Alabama 62
Louisiana-Monroe 76, Arkansas St 54
Southland 1st round:
New Orleans 83, Texas A&M-CC 76
Central Arkansas 67, Lamar 57
MEAC quarters:
Hampton 75, Florida A&M 71
Morgan St 78, Bethune-Cookman 77
North Carolina 78, Syracuse 59 - and thus dies Syracuse
Louisville 82, Florida St 74 - the ACC bubble just got a lot more complicated
Boston College 91, NC State 87 - um, I'm not completely convinced NC State is safe. Look at that non-con SoS boys
Notre Dame 71, Virginia Tech 65 - ditto Va Tech, although their resume might be good enough. We're one win away from really talking about Notre Dame
Pac-12 1st round:
Colorado 97, Arizona St 85 - oh boy
Stanford 76, Cal 58
Oregon St 69, Washington 66 (OT) - well that's convenient, we can get rid of UW
Oregon 64, Washington St 62 (OT) - man, I was hoping we could get rid of Oregon too. Pac-12 almost did the bubble work for us
SEC 1st round:
Georgia 78, Vanderbilt 62
South Carolina 85, Ole Miss 84
Big 12 1st round:
Oklahoma St 71, Oklahoma 60 - is everyone okay with a 9-bid conference? Just checking
Texas 68, Iowa St 64
Big East 1st round:
St John's 88, Georgetown 77
Marquette 72, DePaul 69
Patriot final:
Bucknell 83, Colgate 54
A-10 1st round:
UMass 69, LaSalle 67
George Washington 78, Fordham 72
Mountain West 1st round:
UNLV 97, Air Force 90
Utah St 76, Colorado St 65
Wyoming 74, San Jose St 61
CUSA 1st round:
Southern Miss 69, Florida International 68
UTSA 71, UTEP 58
Louisiana Tech 68, North Texas 62
UAB 83, Florida Atlantic 72
Sun Belt 1st round:
Texas St 73, Coastal Carolina 66
Appalachian St 93, UALR 64
Troy 69, South Alabama 62
Louisiana-Monroe 76, Arkansas St 54
Southland 1st round:
New Orleans 83, Texas A&M-CC 76
Central Arkansas 67, Lamar 57
MEAC quarters:
Hampton 75, Florida A&M 71
Morgan St 78, Bethune-Cookman 77
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
WAC tournament preview
This is part 30 of a 32-part preview.
Standings:
New Mexico St 12-2
Utah Valley 10-4
Grand Canyon 9-5
Seattle 8-6
UT-RGV 6-8
Cal St-Bakersfield 5-9
UMKC 5-9
Chicago St 1-13
Format:
March 8-10. And you'll never guess the location. Vegas.
Matchups:
1) New Mexico St vs. 8) Chicago St
4) Seattle vs. 5) UT-RGV
3) Grand Canyon vs. 6) UMKC
2) Utah Valley vs. 7) Cal St-Bakersfield
The stakes:
Our final meaningful preview, with one last bubble team on the board. Yes, New Mexico St. 1-3 vs. Group 1, 4-0 vs. Group 2, non-con SoS 75, 8-3 road record. All more or less okay or good. 2 Group 3 losses, though. Win over Miami looms large right now. Unfortunately there's a couple dumb losses, plus a key head-to-head at St Mary's. They're viable and ultimately I can't make the case for them, but they'll be on the consideration board at the end if it comes to it.
Utah Valley actually has a RPI in the NIT range but the rest of the profile doesn't hold. They can join GCU and Seattle as CIT-eligible.
Standings:
New Mexico St 12-2
Utah Valley 10-4
Grand Canyon 9-5
Seattle 8-6
UT-RGV 6-8
Cal St-Bakersfield 5-9
UMKC 5-9
Chicago St 1-13
Format:
March 8-10. And you'll never guess the location. Vegas.
Matchups:
1) New Mexico St vs. 8) Chicago St
4) Seattle vs. 5) UT-RGV
3) Grand Canyon vs. 6) UMKC
2) Utah Valley vs. 7) Cal St-Bakersfield
The stakes:
Our final meaningful preview, with one last bubble team on the board. Yes, New Mexico St. 1-3 vs. Group 1, 4-0 vs. Group 2, non-con SoS 75, 8-3 road record. All more or less okay or good. 2 Group 3 losses, though. Win over Miami looms large right now. Unfortunately there's a couple dumb losses, plus a key head-to-head at St Mary's. They're viable and ultimately I can't make the case for them, but they'll be on the consideration board at the end if it comes to it.
Utah Valley actually has a RPI in the NIT range but the rest of the profile doesn't hold. They can join GCU and Seattle as CIT-eligible.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)